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DoINeedOne

Italian Problems & The EU

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Watched a few Real vision Interviews but I always enjoy Grant Williams kinda mini documentaries whilst there is talk about the history of Italy it also discusses a lot about the Euro, banking, immigration, brexit and investing plus much more 

 

Worth watching if you have the time 

 

 

 

 

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Shaun Richards has covered this extensively over the years and the fact that these problems are not going away.

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/?s=italy&submit=Search

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2019/04/30/italy-exits-recession-but-sadly-continues-its-economic-depression/

Italy exits recession but sadly continues its economic depression

Posted on April 30, 2019

Today brings Italy into focus as we find out how it did in the first three months of this year. The mood music has been okay ( 0.3% GDP growth in France) and really rather good ( 0.7% GDP growth in Spain) but we are of course looking at the country described in economic terms as a girlfriend in a coma. The situation has recently deteriorated yet again as highlighted below.

As you can see there has been quite a plunge which illustrates part of the girlfriend in a coma issue. This is that in any economic slow down Italy participates but in a period of growth it grows much less than its peers. So it has for the whole of this century been “slip-sliding away” as Paul Simon would say. Putting that into numbers in the better periods it struggles to grow at more than 1% per annum on average. An example of that has been provided by the last six years as if we look at the period from the beginning of 2013 to the end of 2018 we see that GDP growth was less than 5%. This means that the 402.8 billion Euros of quarterly economic output at the end of 2018 was still a long way short of a number that according to the chart nudged over 425 billion early in 2008. Putting it another way it has joined in with the drops including the Euro area crisis of 2010-12 but not shown anything like the same enthusiasm for the rallies.

 

Edited by sancho panza

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Really good analysis of the italian problem.Partticularly at 23 minutes.If all anyone watches is that bit,they'll get the gist.Superb

personally,I think Italy will be the straw that breaks the EU.Banking system/fiscal problems/Euro problems/EU unable to balance needs of Italy and germany at the same time...................

 

'Cpaitlaism has a self correction mechanism,currency unions have a self destruct impulse.It's a belief system rather than a financial system

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23 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Really good analysis of the italian problem.Partticularly at 23 minutes.If all anyone watches is that bit,they'll get the gist.Superb

personally,I think Italy will be the straw that breaks the EU.Banking system/fiscal problems/Euro problems/EU unable to balance needs of Italy and germany at the same time...................

 

'Cpaitlaism has a self correction mechanism,currency unions have a self destruct impulse.It's a belief system rather than a financial system

Who wants to be the Euro equivalent of Alabama, Nee Mexico or Tennesse.

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Great analysis of the Hannibal campaign and referncing current political situation ie that biggest strategic mistakes in history are made by leaders under political pressure and rushing in which is what Brussels is doing.

 

Really good analysis of immigration issues from 14 minutes

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EU three aims

1 open border

2 low rates

3 common currency

 

no acknowledgement of cyclicality and the fact that these three things are at the root of Italy's problems.

'cheap moeny has caused a lot of problems in the world' ........22 minutes.

'noone ready for higher IR's'.

Edited by sancho panza

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7 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

EU three aims

1 open border

2 low rates

3 common currency

 

no acknowledgement of cyclicality and the fact that these three things are at the root of Italy's problems.

'cheap moeny has caused a lot of problems in the world' ........22 minutes.

'noone ready for higher IR's'.

EU's first and only aim is the continuation, and if possible expansion, of the EU.

Those three aims are how its hopes to achieve it!

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1 minute ago, Majorpain said:

EU's first and only aim is the continuation, and if possible expansion, of the EU.

Those three aims are how its hopes to achieve it!

In another bit of teh video,they argue that the EU is behaving like an Empire.hard to disagree.

The whole vids are worth a scan through MP.A very reasoned discussion that really does prepare the background for Italy's eventual Itexit.

On another matter,been reorganising our PM portfolio.Have you got a view on HOC/FRES at the mo?No worries if you haven't.

Sold up a raft of our underperformers and looking for fertile grounds.

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Second video has some amazing stats around 22 minutes.Italy 112th in the world for paying taxes.........54th for corruption....

Good analsysis of the banking system and how it's totally indebted

I thought the bit about no nice cars in Italy was funny, because they would get pulled over and there taxes cross referenced, So you have millionaires driving around in banged up fiat panda's

 

Also what he said about immigration Italy has if i remember correctly something like 30+% youth unemployment whilst Germany has a lot less so they want the immagration even the young Italians are moving there 

 

But one immigration policy doesn't suit a range of countries

Edited by DoINeedOne

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8 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

I thought the bit about no nice cars in Italy was funny, because they would get pulled over and there taxes cross referenced, So you have millionaires driving around in banged up fiat panda's

 

Also what he said about immigration Italy has if i remember correctly something like 30+% youth unemployment whilst Germany has a lot less so they want the immagration even the young Italians are moving there 

 

But one immigration policy doesn't suit a range of countries

there was a lot to it.as i said,very reasoned thought provoking discussion.lots of good points raised and a real challenge to Remainers who don't think the EU needs to reform asap.

also good poijnt re people calling all Leavers racists stifling debate on immigration.

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6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

In another bit of teh video,they argue that the EU is behaving like an Empire.hard to disagree.

The whole vids are worth a scan through MP.A very reasoned discussion that really does prepare the background for Italy's eventual Itexit.

On another matter,been reorganising our PM portfolio.Have you got a view on HOC/FRES at the mo?No worries if you haven't.

Sold up a raft of our underperformers and looking for fertile grounds.

FRES is pretty good value IMO atm, it puking its guts up earlier in the year has put it on a better ratio on my spreadsheet.

HOC is boringly reliable as ever, i dont expect any fireworks but its well run nevertheless.  No 100% guarantee of course.

I skewed my portfolio towards the riskier end for end of cycle shenanigans, might regret it but might earn some major beer money as well.  Miners are being ignored atm, we shall see if that continues to be the case.

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