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When to buy a house?


Loki

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8 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

All depends on which way the prices will go.  If down, then equity of the deposit is much better than watching equity evaporate in the house.

I view the renting `wasting money` vs buying argument as a longterm `share type`investment, with the following questions/caveats:-

Buying means holding for the long term;

1. Selling/timing the market in the short term could actually mean a substantial loss in your capital (or even negative, as in negative equity on an owed mortgage).

2. Will you current company (house region) still be in favour in the long term or will it `fall out` of the FTSE100.

3. Do you need liquidity in the short term and at what cost...you need the mony (move quickly to another area), you will pay a premium for leaving the party early.

4. Opportunity, if your equity is tied up you cannot take advantage of sudden bargain shares in the market (better job in a new).

BUT

as with shares (owning)/being (renting) in cash,  you pay a cost for the flexibility.

 

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was just reading the other place and everyone was agreeing that once brexit is sorted prices will rise, many die hard bears saying the same thing, this must be the top, the last bears turn bull and its over.

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and having  read some of the guff above it is surely game over. Even in a world where lets say prices rise slightly after brexit, there is only so much they could possible rise. Nobody will be getting significant 20-30pc pay rises anytime soon. Maybe another 20-30k on a 500k house? anything more is impossible. It is not about affordability its a simple restriction in lending. Even if you have a 300k deposit, getting a 500k 4 bed detached in the south is impossible for some. Immigrants will not be able to get mortgages on all these houses they are building. Many decent earners are leaving to go back to eastern Europe so they can live in a "white" country. I know over 5 family's personally, 20+ through friends of friends. There are hundreds of thousands of new houses in the pipeline. Only way for prices is down.

i have a friend who is a long term bear who is now buying as he is 40 and needs a mortgage, now or never, he lives with parents but has 100k deposit and earns 100k a year in secure industry/position. He always buys everything at the top.

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Talking Monkey
On ‎13‎/‎10‎/‎2019 at 10:47, spygirl said:

50%+ drop in South.

20% drop in north, with poor liquidity.

To be honest with the decline in financial services in London I am surprised we have not already had substantial falls, those 100-150K a year jobs are disappearing at a fair clip. The other one is management consultancy that should start shrinking at some point

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1 minute ago, Talking Monkey said:

To be honest with the decline in financial services in London I am surprised we have not already had substantial falls, those 100-150K a year jobs are disappearing at a fair clip. The other one is management consultancy that should start shrinking at some point

Its London and SE.

UK FinSec has imploded, taking with it 100,000s of jobs, mainly in London/Se with it.

I go to towns where ~50% of the private sector employment has gone in the last 10-15 years.

If love to see some updated mean incoem stats. 2008 n all hat will have took 1/3 off the median income.

 

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11 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

To be honest with the decline in financial services in London I am surprised we have not already had substantial falls, those 100-150K a year jobs are disappearing at a fair clip. The other one is management consultancy that should start shrinking at some point

This is what I mean, the delay is interminable 

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Looking either somewhere in or between north/east Leeds area due to wanting short trip to work. Pension and other investments are pretty minimal for my age as I’d put it into a deposit instead. I’m not young but not that old either, 34.

I’ve managed to get a fair deposit in cash approx 85k, but still waiting it out. I was moving all over the country doing contract work so didn’t actually need a place as would never be there but now back in one place.

I could just about get a place now and be done with it, try and pay off as fast as I can but having waited this long holding out for a drop I may as well hold out for the “big one”. Just hope the cash isn’t eroded in the mean time and it actually does come.

So to answer your question OP,  sounds like we’re in a similar position having thankfully been shown this site (except  up north) I’m waiting for now. Not sure how much longer I can take though!

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I hated!!!!!!!!!.. hated renting..

The thought of my jobless smug twat landlord spending the money I hard earned made me sick to the bottom of my stomach.. Driving his new car I was paying for.. Fuck them all to death as they say in southpark..

 

I have bought in surrey, its not a massive house but semi detached end of the road on the corner, which turns out is a bastard place to live in strong winds.. who knew? needs lots of work but there is a Brexit down tick.. next door same house sold for £410,000 back last year.. I paid £365,000 which is still too much in my opinion but its better than my neighbor who got proper fucked.. He could not live in his house for a year as he had it gutted due to the quality of the work done by the previous DIY enthusiast..

My advice is find something you like then negotiate, Some houses round my way have been on for a year or more.. people have to be getting a bit desperate..

 

 

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18 hours ago, macca said:

I hated!!!!!!!!!.. hated renting..

The thought of my jobless smug twat landlord spending the money I hard earned made me sick to the bottom of my stomach.. Driving his new car I was paying for.. Fuck them all to death as they say in southpark..

 

I have bought in surrey, its not a massive house but semi detached end of the road on the corner, which turns out is a bastard place to live in strong winds.. who knew? needs lots of work but there is a Brexit down tick.. next door same house sold for £410,000 back last year.. I paid £365,000 which is still too much in my opinion but its better than my neighbor who got proper fucked.. He could not live in his house for a year as he had it gutted due to the quality of the work done by the previous DIY enthusiast..

My advice is find something you like then negotiate, Some houses round my way have been on for a year or more.. people have to be getting a bit desperate..

 

 

Agreed on the LL bit. They are a bunch of bent entitled leeching lazy arse scum. Glad you rid of the cunts. Nothing better than seeing the place you vacated with nice long dead period with no rent to pay for the scumbags nice new car (on lease of course).

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sleepwello'nights

I was speaking to a friend in the building industry yesterday. He remarked that those he knows in construction are still working flat out. Brickies are on £250 a day, and some are even paid by the brick. He reckons some he knows are working 3 days a week, once they've clocked up £1500 they finish for the week.

Doesn't correspond with the anecdotes from others on here.

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16 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I was speaking to a friend in the building industry yesterday. He remarked that those he knows in construction are still working flat out. Brickies are on £250 a day, and some are even paid by the brick. He reckons some he knows are working 3 days a week, once they've clocked up £1500 they finish for the week.

Doesn't correspond with the anecdotes from others on here.

AFAICT its teetering.

Developers are delaying paying as logn as possible. Ive seen a big tick up of people/companies not getting paid.

Theres loads of new builds/developments lying unsold for 2+ years.

My guess is there is going to be the mother of all building employment crashes.

 

 

 

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20 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I was speaking to a friend in the building industry yesterday. He remarked that those he knows in construction are still working flat out. Brickies are on £250 a day, and some are even paid by the brick. He reckons some he knows are working 3 days a week, once they've clocked up £1500 they finish for the week.

Doesn't correspond with the anecdotes from others on here.

What areas of the country are they working in?

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i think bellway have picked up the pace in recent months on sites in the south, i think they are trying to get sites built out and sold BEFORE the crash they know is coming, make hay while the sun shines is the impression i get.

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Democorruptcy
5 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

i think bellway have picked up the pace in recent months on sites in the south, i think they are trying to get sites built out and sold BEFORE the crash they know is coming, make hay while the sun shines is the impression i get.

Help to Buy is supposed to be restricted to FTB's only from April 2021. Then it's supposed to end in 2023. At the moment the governbankment reimburses banks 20% Regions/40% London if new builds are sold at a loss. Therefore banks are happy to lend to enable buyers to pay prices that have increased profit margins for builders. If Help to Buy does end will banks be as keen to lend? If lending is tighter later on, builder profit margins will drop.

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UnconventionalWisdom
1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

If Help to Buy does end will banks be as keen to lend? If lending is tighter later on, builder profit margins will drop.

Banks make money from lending. The absurdity of help to buy is that the banks will lend as much as they think you can afford as this maximises their profits. The fact that the governments gives you a further loan means that by definition, the loan is great than that in which the bank thinks you can pay back. 

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On 13/10/2019 at 23:02, Loki said:

I wouldn't mind renting if it was cheap enough to make up for the fact you never own or have equity in anything.  But you get the worst of both worlds.

Agreed, I would actively choose to rent forever if the situation for renters was signficantly better in this country: security of tenure and rent controls in particular.  I love the idea of finding that the roof's leaking and just picking up teh phone to the landlord or their agent to get them to fix it.

But it isn't.

I own but see the "return" on my investment in a house as the rental money saved less the maintenance costs.  It's probably about 3%.

That money would be doing much better in the stock market rather than having been used to buy my house.  I forget the period, it may be ten years, but in that time house prices are up 50% but equity investments are up 60%.  Wages about 8%... 

 

I think the question of when to buy depends upon your intentions with regard to moving, situation (family in particular), and level of finances.

If without stretching yourself you can buy somewhere you would like to live, as opposed to just being "on the ladder", and would be reasonably likely to live for ten years or so then it seems a straightforward choice to buy.

 

Prior to living here I was six years working somewhere that I was only going to stay for as long as I wanted to do the job; so I rented from choice.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I’m waiting till next August before deciding what to do in the meantime I’m doing my hovel up a bit I then have the option of renting it out or selling it or buying another terrace but 3 bed this time and liveing in both to take advantage of the rent a room scheme and have no issues removing idiots fuck evictions .i also have the option of buying a bigger place if I sell this one but if it’s done up a bit it should sell faster I realy have no idea what to do If I’m honest but the more options I have the better and I’m in no rush to do anything let’s see what the general election brings 

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3 hours ago, stokiescum said:

I’m waiting till next August before deciding what to do in the meantime I’m doing my hovel up a bit I then have the option of renting it out or selling it or buying another terrace but 3 bed this time and liveing in both to take advantage of the rent a room scheme and have no issues removing idiots fuck evictions .i also have the option of buying a bigger place if I sell this one but if it’s done up a bit it should sell faster I realy have no idea what to do If I’m honest but the more options I have the better and I’m in no rush to do anything let’s see what the general election brings 

Agreed, this isn't the time to rush into any buying decisions 

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8 hours ago, stokiescum said:

I’m waiting till next August before deciding what to do in the meantime I’m doing my hovel up a bit I then have the option of renting it out or selling it or buying another terrace but 3 bed this time and liveing in both to take advantage of the rent a room scheme and have no issues removing idiots fuck evictions

You can only officially have one residence, any rent anyone pays you for whole or part of another house that you own makes them a tenant with all the legal rights associate with that. 

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7 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

You can only officially have one residence, any rent anyone pays you for whole or part of another house that you own makes them a tenant with all the legal rights associate with that. 

You might be correct but the main residence would be the one with a morgage on it however moveing between houses is no big deal a lodger is just that a lodger he would have no idea where I worked I could easily say I work away a lot so long has you don’t pass 9k you don’t even have to declare it the council just ask a name nothing more for council tax So far has I know .but you might be correct but it’s nothing to fear I know people subletting rooms in houses they rent and some are renting rooms out in houses that housing  benifit are paying just look at glenfield has an example I don’t think I would be doing anything criminal if I did it anyway but it might be worth looking into next August when I decide what to do 

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1 hour ago, stokiescum said:

You might be correct but the main residence would be the one with a morgage on it however moveing between houses is no big deal a lodger is just that a lodger he would have no idea where I worked

If he finds out though and is bloody minded you are fucked because he could potentially sue you for operating an unlicensed HMO and reclaim all the rent hes ever paid you.

http://www.lodgerlandlord.co.uk/2010/02/01/day-1-what-is-a-lodger-2/

Quote

Finally, I should make it clear that the property must be your main home, where you live for most of the time.

 

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2 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

If he finds out though and is bloody minded you are fucked because he could potentially sue you for operating an unlicensed HMO and reclaim all the rent hes ever paid you.

http://www.lodgerlandlord.co.uk/2010/02/01/day-1-what-is-a-lodger-2/

 

Well looking at that the answer is visiting the girlfriend which is a resnoble excuse for not being around much my old lodger loved it when I stayed at mine for quite a length of time but that’s a clause I’ve never seen before if I’m honest but a couple of friends at work rent rooms in a drs house he works all week at stoke royal then goes home Friday dinner to his wife and other house 

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