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Recession anyone?


MrPin

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Things seem pretty slow at the moment. If it wasn't for a big order landing out the blue we'd be absolutely dead. Lorry drivers coming into our business are a very good bellwether of economic activity for me. How much they are picking up from their regular collections is telling. And doesn't appear to be much at the moment. 

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18 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

If its on zero cred its definitely bollocks, I dont think that site has has single one of its wacky made up stories actually amount to anything in the decade I've been aware of its existence.

Yes, there is that. xD

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Bobthebuilder

I think we have been in zero net any bloody thing for the last 10 years.

Smells like a recession to me, GDP will be + 0.1, so everything tickety boo then.

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On 15/11/2019 at 19:43, Chewing Grass said:

Two graphs you don't want to look at.

GDP UK

900884113_Screenshot-2019-11-15UnitedKingdomGDP2019DataChartCalendarForecastNews.png.6bb079cbe1e55a2aa88d3e38979702d4.png

GDP per capita UK

756161006_Screenshot-2019-11-15UnitedKingdomGDPpercapita2019DataChartCalendarForecast.png.4aaa2f4153e51cc53905ef5cde0695df.png

15 years & gone nowhere

 

and jsut think what that would look like if they included the estimated 1.2 mn illegals?

Shaun Ricahrds has done some great work on this in that understated apolitical way of his.

Amazing that the MSM are so keen to push nominal GDP figures down public throats when they're such a blatant distortion of the real picture.

On 13/11/2019 at 20:16, dgul said:

I think we're currently in recession (just about).  However, we'll not find out about this for about 6 months.

the recessions often appear 2 to 3 quarters after theyve started with readjustments .

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On 13/11/2019 at 15:32, MrPin said:

What's your bet?

nominal figures have held up a lot better than I'd anticipated.we could be in recession now but may not be apparent until June/Sept 2020

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11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

nominal figures have held up a lot better than I'd anticipated.we could be in recession now but may not be apparent until June/Sept 2020

Yes, it can only be announced in retrospect.

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On 17/11/2019 at 19:56, sancho panza said:

Amazing that the MSM are so keen to push nominal GDP figures down public throats when they're such a blatant distortion of the real picture.

Quote

As a result of a continuing addiction to cheap and easy credit, most (83%) of the recorded growth in British GDP since 2008 has been a function of the simple spending of borrowed money.

SEEDS calculations show that, if net new borrowing ceased as of now, trend growth would fall to between 0.1% and 0.4%, well adrift of the 0.6% rate at which population numbers are increasing.

If the United Kingdom hadn’t joined in the pan-Western (and, latterly, pan-global) debt binge in the first place, output last year would have been £1.63 trillion, 22% below the recorded £2.08tn.

Where underlying realities are concerned, SEEDS indicates that, rather than ‘output of £2.08tn, growing at 1.4% annually’, Britain has underlying, ‘clean’ GDP (C-GDP) of £1.63tn, growing by between 0.1% and (at best) 0.4% – and this is even before we turn to the critically-important energy situation.

DE-GROWTH AND DENIAL IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

The SEEDS being referred to is Dr Tim Morgan's base for calculations treating the economy as energy-based. The model is downloadable from his site. 

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17 hours ago, Erewhon888 said:

DE-GROWTH AND DENIAL IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

The SEEDS being referred to is Dr Tim Morgan's base for calculations treating the economy as energy-based. The model is downloadable from his site. 

Lovely....

"Like so many others, the British economy shows all the hallmarks of “activity” created artificially by the injection of credit – high value-adding activities (like manufacturing) have stagnated at best, displaced by “growth” coming mostly from minimally value-adding sectors which are characterised by low wages and worsening insecurity of employment.

Replacing, say, £1bn of hard-priced manufacturing output with £1bn of residually-priced manicures and fast food deliveries isn’t progressive, least of all if this change has been financed with rising debt, most obviously in the household sector.

The mistaken idea, held as tenaciously in London as it is in the Élysée, that lowering wages somehow makes an economy ‘more competitive’, ignores one rather obvious fact – if low labour costs were an economic positive, Ghana would be more prosperous than Germany, and Swaziland richer than Switzerland".

But missed the bit about wealth inequality freezing the system.  Giving money (via QE, etc but also via lower wages to the plebs, etc) to relatively few people with a relatively low propensity to consume does relatively little other than create reservoirs of frozen financial assets.  That's why the velocity of money is so low.  Things would be very different (maybe with inflation or less deflation depending on how it filled the capacity gap) if the money had been given to the plebs with their higher propensity to spend, especially on things (i.e. other than financial assets) which make the economic wheels turn.  But cronyism and graft got in the way of sane policy and so here we are.  They saved the banks and co so they could (will) eff up again tomorrow by killing the economy and setting off a political time bomb.  They're a lot more greedy than they are smart.  The 1980s Big Bang financialisation of life is about to ricochet back and god knows what it will evolve into.  History has not be kind.  Time to get heads down nice and low.

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Chewing Grass
18 hours ago, Erewhon888 said:

DE-GROWTH AND DENIAL IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

The SEEDS being referred to is Dr Tim Morgan's base for calculations treating the economy as energy-based. The model is downloadable from his site. 

The following two paragraphs from the article are the nub for most people in the UK.

Over that same period (2003-2018), though, the population has increased by 11.4%, from 59.6 million to 66.4 million. Taken together, these figures explain why the average person is 10.8% worse off now (£22,191) than he or she was fifteen years ago (at 2018 values, £24,832).

Rises in taxes have exacerbated this deterioration, with a £2,673 fall in prosperity compounded by a £2,240 (24%) increase in taxation per person. Accordingly, discretionary (‘left in your pocket’) prosperity is £4,913 (32%) lower now (£10,432) than it was in 2003 (£15,345). This isn’t as bad as what has happened in France (-40% over the same period), but the French experience is extreme, and Britain is not far behind in the league-table of impaired prosperity.

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4 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

The following two paragraphs from the article are the nub for most people in the UK.

Over that same period (2013-2018), though, the population has increased by 11.4%, from 59.6 million to 66.4 million. Taken together, these figures explain why the average person is 10.8% worse off now (£22,191) than he or she was fifteen years ago (at 2018 values, £24,832).

Rises in taxes have exacerbated this deterioration, with a £2,673 fall in prosperity compounded by a £2,240 (24%) increase in taxation per person. Accordingly, discretionary (‘left in your pocket’) prosperity is £4,913 (32%) lower now (£10,432) than it was in 2003 (£15,345). This isn’t as bad as what has happened in France (-40% over the same period), but the French experience is extreme, and Britain is not far behind in the league-table of impaired prosperity.

So we have a lot more people, stagnant (arguably lower per capita) GDP, while those working are paying more in tax for less service levels.  And I wonder what dynamic could cause that!  Maybe I should look at the employment, benefit, tax revenue, and (if only they really existed) immigration figures.  Makes a farce of the current election - Labour cares about the metro view, not real labour, and the Cons are conserving nothing other than the wealth of the already rich.

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21 hours ago, Harley said:

The mistaken idea, held as tenaciously in London as it is in the Élysée, that lowering wages somehow makes an economy ‘more competitive’, ignores one rather obvious fact – if low labour costs were an economic positive, Ghana would be more prosperous than Germany, and Swaziland richer than Switzerland".

Sure, but what both Westminster and the Élysée want is a domestic labour force with German/Swiss productivity who are willing to accept middle income country wages, leaving plenty of profit for their mates. Given the huge collapse in the real value of wages over the last 30-40 years if you include pensions in the numerator and house prices in the denominator, they are arguably halfway there. I expect they are looking forward to the Boomers and early GenX kicking the bucket, that will be the last of the plebs' significant claims on future income gone so it can all go to their mates from then on.

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Worth memorizing these numbers on the US23 trillion debt, the US$21 trillion "missing", the US$100-200 trillion unfunded liabilities.

Note the difference between Greg Hunter's pushing and Skidmore's academic caution in using particular terminology or predicting timescales and outcomes.

The Global Recession Trigger?

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