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mattydread

Anyone bought Tesla shares?

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Made decent money for the Model S and variants but high margin cars is where GM make their money too - trucks and SUV sector. Market cap same as GM that's a big ask. Goldilocks period is coming to an end and they need to mass produce and make money. When you add up the cost of going from base model Model 3 to higher spec it goes way over $35K, doubt we'll see dollar equivalent here for base model. This isn't the internet where grow infrastructure almost exponentially without much trouble, lots of cars = lots of headaches. Designing electric car isn't rocket science either, the reduced parts count will bring more competition to the car market in general, not less and the next most desirable electric car with top whack pricing might come from pretty much nowhere when more topicality drivetrain/battery components are swirling round the OEM market. 

Other companies have proven they can make fine electric cars - Nissan Leaf, Chevvy Bolt. Does Tesla have USP, very debateable. Every virtue signalling Californian on mega bucks has already bought a Model S/X and to be honest the novelty is going and the model S is looking a bit passe now. Musk getting political on climate deal / Trump, twat, Tesla has had oodles in public funding and green car kickbacks, can see those being dropped rapidly around the world when tax take starts to get hit (double hit thanks to kickbacks) as electric cars roll out form other manufacturers.

Haven't read up about the semi-launch being dropped, minor slippages not unusual but big picture makes Tesla look very fully priced.

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Even Elon Musk thinks their shares are overvalued! I wouldn't discount the innovation and fashion elements of this though. Tesla has shown that it can react very quickly to events in a way that traditional car companies can't and it's very much the brand that people have in mind when the subject of desirable (as opposed to worthy) electric cars comes up. I wouldn't bet the shop on them but having a few of their shares in a large portfolio and holding for the long term doesn't seem like a terrible idea.

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Not definite, but this news  hit the shares pretty hard, been falling behind Model 3 production figures too. The competition is catching up fast and if it comes down to who can produce cheaper the mass producers could still have the advantage. 

Tesla's Having The Worst Day Ever As GOP Tax Plan Calls For Axing Electric Car Credit

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-02/teslas-having-worst-day-ever-gop-tax-plan-calls-axing-electric-car-credit

Tesla Inc., General Motors Co. and other major carmakers pushing to boost U.S. electric car sales were dealt a blow by House Republicans who on Thursday proposed eliminating a $7,500 per vehicle tax credit that has helped stoke early demand for the still small segment of the U.S. auto market.

If adopted, the repeal would take effect after the 2017 tax year, according to a summary of the bill released Thursday by the House Ways and Means Committee as part of a sweeping overhaul of the U.S. tax code that would eliminate some deductions and cut the corporate tax rate to 20 percent. The Senate is crafting its own version.

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1 minute ago, Long time lurking said:

There planed battery factory could be their saving grace ,from that point a view they are well ahead of the curve (if it`s built)

It should certainly help. Pricing is their problem though, dollar for £ the model 3 doesn't stack up to me for example - add on extras that really should be in a standard car and  that model looks expensive. Having said that, utterly convinced that electric cars will dominate the market eventually, just a few more breakthroughs in battery tech should do it.

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4 minutes ago, onlyme said:

It should certainly help. Pricing is their problem though, dollar for £ the model 3 doesn't stack up to me for example - add on extras that really should be in a standard car and  that model looks expensive. Having said that, utterly convinced that electric cars will dominate the market eventually, just a few more breakthroughs in battery tech should do it.

I have never realy looked into electric cars ,i could be completely wrong but most seem to run direct drive ?(ie no gearbox) i understand the thinking due to the torqe produced by electric motors ,but surely the range could be increased by using a gear box 

Would agree battery tec/cost is whats holding it back for sure 

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5 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

I have never realy looked into electric cars ,i could be completely wrong but most seem to run direct drive ?(ie no gearbox) i understand the thinking due to the torqe produced by electric motors ,but surely the range could be increased by using a gear box 

Would agree battery tec/cost is whats holding it back for sure 

Yes, direct drive as multiple gears just not needed really. Very flat efficiency curve so any saving would be marginal, unlike an ic engine. 

 

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35 minutes ago, SNACR said:

Motor tech, even with brushless, doesn't seem to be anywhere near where it ought to be. In a solid state era coils of copper wire seem very inelegant.

I think you end up battling basic physics, you can tweak things but there's only a few percent left to gain so maybe just go with tried and tested designs largely, ultra reliable, sometimes why bother with redesigning  the wheel as it were. Then concentrate on all the other components, regen, drive electronics etc. Hub motors have had some effort put into them but there are issues with unsprung weight. 

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On 07/11/2017 at 17:54, Kurt Barlow said:

He has big scope to cut costs at Tesla. They employ 33,000 people but 5000 of them are dedicated to stroking his ego

Well, as long as it's only his ego they're stroking, I don't see any problem with that.

On 02/11/2017 at 17:02, Long time lurking said:

I have never realy looked into electric cars ,i could be completely wrong but most seem to run direct drive ?(ie no gearbox) i understand the thinking due to the torqe produced by electric motors ,but surely the range could be increased by using a gear box 

Would agree battery tec/cost is whats holding it back for sure 

A big plus point for electric cars is the reduced mechanical complexity - motors in the wheels mean no drive shafts, gear boxes (with all the linkages they involve) etc. 

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