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Economic "bounce" and Budget thread


spunko

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Democorruptcy
10 minutes ago, Tdog said:

I agree he is so fucken stupid he went along with more HTB, he could have hammered the Tories on this blatant handout to Tory sponsors, and inflating the property bubble.

However In 2017 he was raising the issue of Land Value Tax. But what do you think hammering landlords to that extent would have done. No politician not even Corbyn can come out directly and say they'll bring down house prices, but his intent clearly would have.

Corbyn has many a fault but on housing he knew what had to be done and would have done it. Until house prices relate to wages then this nation will stay on life support. And not the 4 x 2 salaries you wrongly claim banks are lending.

In all honesty I think Corbyn was partly more old school Labour and wanted to reduce inequality but that's an impossible position to gain power from, in our democorruptcy.

I'm still waiting for your MMR limiting income multiples link? Thrown the towel in on that one? OK.

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Democorruptcy
8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

If by foreign buyers you mean people who pitch up in a rubber dinghy,maybe.Corbyn would have scared big moeny out of this country in a heartbeat.

 

ref HTB,at some point the public are going to work out theyve been conned.Historically,bad things happen thereafter.Politcal elite already in trouble.Lot of tory toffs I know are very smug about how well they undertand the plight of working class people.Rather missing the point that they bought off the brexit party and a load of labout voters stayed at home.

Social upheavel is inbound imho.Brexit showed me that people are well aware of how accurate your last point in boldis

It's all academic about what might have happened IF Corbyn had got in.

I think the Brexit Party took votes from betrayed Labour voters and lost them seats. The Tories largely just retained voting numbers picking up some Brexiteers but losing Remainers. Corbyn has obviously stayed on to try shape a new leader but I don't hold out much hope for the traitors. 

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My prediction is that he will help the working class in ways that piss off the SJWs. Cries of waycism directed at him while he is overtly helping the working class.

eg. telling councils and HAs to always give 1st dibs to locals. Non locals stay bottom of the list until there isn't a local that wants the place. 

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Democorruptcy
11 minutes ago, Tdog said:

See above post. Maybe i will wash your towel for you.:P

 

Well there's a surprise, you cannot find a link to a rule that is non existent!

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33 minutes ago, jm51 said:

My prediction is that he will help the working class in ways that piss off the SJWs. Cries of waycism directed at him while he is overtly helping the working class.

eg. telling councils and HAs to always give 1st dibs to locals. Non locals stay bottom of the list until there isn't a local that wants the place. 

That would make him very popular round here, where nearly all the new builds are being bought by London authorities, or ex-Londoners fleeing from the knife crime. But I can't see it happening personally - housebuilders won't let it happen, the outflow of "property wealth" from London is keeping them afloat in the SE.

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1 hour ago, jm51 said:

My prediction is that he will help the working class in ways that piss off the SJWs. Cries of waycism directed at him while he is overtly helping the working class.

eg. telling councils and HAs to always give 1st dibs to locals. Non locals stay bottom of the list until there isn't a local that wants the place. 

In your dreams. The tories hate the working class almost as much as labour does. Not quite but it’s a close run thing 

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On 16/12/2019 at 08:49, Harley said:

Tidy!  Isn't England, as opposed to the other regions, massively overdue a re-rating?  Would be far easier than a wealth tax.  Personally I would prefer a poll tax or just merge into income tax but unlikely in the case of unrest, which we'll probably get anyway.  Oh, and councils should surcharge land banks, etc to get them used.  Again, no chance.

I rent in an expensive town in SE England and I think re-rating council tax to reflect current house prices would be a great policy. Both rents and house prices would fall to reflect the higher council tax. The Tories are all bark and no bite though, get ready for 5 years of economic Mayism with the odd bit of culture war red meat thrown in to keep their supporters loyal.

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Democorruptcy
1 hour ago, Tdog said:

You said it is 4 x salary. It is not.

It is worked out after expenditure, the money someone has after expenditure is not their salary.

Like i said despite wasting time on here,  ive better things to do with myself than get into a pissing contest with you.

All I meant was that more mortgages are now joint income, rather than single income as they were in the past.

You said MMR prevents 4x joint income, it doesn't. It replaces income limits by stress testing affordability.

When it came out in 2014
 

Quote

 

New MMR affordability rules may raise income multiples

The director of London-based mortgage adviser Capital Fortune said the move away from restricting income multiples in favour of stress-testing borrowers’ affordability could leave room for lenders to offer people bigger mortgages than they currently get.

He said: “Under the MMR affordability rules, lenders have to look at what people can afford and that can differ wildly if you have a borrower who’s a Billy No-Mates, who walks to work and eats at home every night compared to a couple living the high life in the West End of London.”

https://www.ftadviser.com/2014/03/21/mortgages/new-mmr-affordability-rules-may-raise-income-multiples-IRieQLmIfA9PwIluWcfO7J/article.html

 

That article suggests 6x single income for someone frugal but of course a frugal couple might also be able to increase their borrowing as well. The BoE's 'no more than 15% of mortgages can be over 4.5x income" is using whatever income is on the mortgage application, which could be single or joint.

House prices too high? Join the dots, it's because the MMR is a bag of shite because bankers successfully lobbied to have the 25 year maximum term removed just before it came out. Computer says 'no', then extend the term to reduce the monthly payment until it's a 'yes'. The main thing it's done is extend the length of mortgages so people pay more interest.

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On 18/12/2019 at 14:05, Wight Flight said:

Well yes.

An interesting aside - my current landlord doesn't have a mortgage. I am his first tenant and I think he was a bit surprised to get the tax bill. He actually said he would rather spend the rent money improving the house than give it to the Government. Whether he actually does remains to be seen.

Yes my landlord likes to talk about spending some of the rent money improving the house too, 5 years in I have yet to see this translate into action. Any day now I'm sure.

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2 hours ago, jm51 said:

My prediction is that he will help the working class in ways that piss off the SJWs. Cries of waycism directed at him while he is overtly helping the working class.

eg. telling councils and HAs to always give 1st dibs to locals. Non locals stay bottom of the list until there isn't a local that wants the place. 

There are only about 60k new social tenancies created each year, while it might sell well in the newspapers in practical terms reordering the waiting list system to benefit 'working class' locals is just tinkering because so few people are involved.

See Chart 3 in: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/773079/Local_Authority_Housing_Statistics_England_year_ending_March_2018.pdf

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51 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Improvements aren’t tax deductible. You can only claim for a like for like replacement.

Redecorating something that hasn't been decorated in 15 years would be an improvement. As would fixing the guttering.

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sleepwello'nights
14 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Redecorating something that hasn't been decorated in 15 years would be an improvement. As would fixing the guttering.

and as you rightly imply as repairs they are an allowable as a deductible expense.

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Democorruptcy
4 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Time to go long the Builders or at least start taking up a position to benefit

I'm not long builders. Such as BDEV has gone from 35p in 2008 to 740p today, TW 6p to 192p so it seems a bit late to me. 

They had 4 of the top 5 top risers the morning after the election result. 

 

 

risers.jpg

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-7809803/How-offering-local-time-buyers-30-discount-work.html

Bit more info here - seems to be widely believed they'll use the H2B cash there.

 

And a quote by Henry Pryor that is, strangely for him, misleading. Local authorities rarely build social housing now, they buy them from housebuilders.

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Who built the council houses in the 60s and 70s?  Before my time although I grew up in a 70s ex council.  I remember the external brick seeming to look a lot tougher than the stuff they use today.  I'm almost sure it had brick inner walls too

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1 minute ago, Tdog said:

Loki, the answer is in the name.

It was from the end of WW2 onwards they built council houses and the NHS. Think this is the Labour party that the plebs refer to as "real Labour". Sadly in 1997 we got nuLabour.

Sorry, what I meant was - in house builders or subbed out to firms?

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@Tdog

I'm not sure if the argument that "developers will just up their prices by 30%" holds much water to be honest. There is no more room to up prices, they are not selling round here in the so-called bouyant market of the South East at current prices, so upping them by another +30% is not going to help them at all.

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sleepwello'nights
3 hours ago, Loki said:

Who built the council houses in the 60s and 70s?  Before my time although I grew up in a 70s ex council.  I remember the external brick seeming to look a lot tougher than the stuff they use today.  I'm almost sure it had brick inner walls too

The developer who built the estate I live in had to provide a number of "affordable" homes. These were sold to a housing association. The developer, who my son worked for at the time, made a bigger margin on those dwellings than the ones sold to private owners. 

 

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14 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's all academic about what might have happened IF Corbyn had got in.

I think the Brexit Party took votes from betrayed Labour voters and lost them seats. The Tories largely just retained voting numbers picking up some Brexiteers but losing Remainers. Corbyn has obviously stayed on to try shape a new leader but I don't hold out much hope for the traitors. 

I think I've bored on about this before,but in a lot of the seats they lost,Tory numbers were flat or up on or two thousand.Labour were down 5/6/7000.

Labour picked up remainers nationally,covered up the drubbing in the North if you only looked at the national vote figures.

12 hours ago, One percent said:

In your dreams. The tories hate the working class almost as much as labour does. Not quite but it’s a close run thing 

The Tories have a use for it beyond the votes in the here n now.

12 hours ago, Darude said:

I rent in an expensive town in SE England and I think re-rating council tax to reflect current house prices would be a great policy. Both rents and house prices would fall to reflect the higher council tax. The Tories are all bark and no bite though, get ready for 5 years of economic Mayism with the odd bit of culture war red meat thrown in to keep their supporters loyal.

Boris has been a dissappointment before apparently-London Mayor.He's easier on the eye and ear than May,which realy is saying something

 

 

11 hours ago, Tdog said:

Try telling that to someone sacked for saying gender is absolute.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50858919

We've had a decade of the Tory party they are SJW's, extreme ones.

Red Oxbrdige team versus the Blue.Who colonised who?

10 hours ago, Loki said:

Who built the council houses in the 60s and 70s?  Before my time although I grew up in a 70s ex council.  I remember the external brick seeming to look a lot tougher than the stuff they use today.  I'm almost sure it had brick inner walls too

Tories get private comapnies to build social hosuing and generate sales to the companies they have some sort of interest in*.Said companies ensure some inbuilt obscelesence. Tories allow hgih levels of migration meaning flow of demand is strong.

Rinse repaet

*sort of interest could be shareholding, future seat on board etc etc

10 hours ago, Tdog said:

Loki, the answer is in the name.

It was from the end of WW2 onwards they built council houses and the NHS. Think this is the Labour party that the plebs refer to as "real Labour". Sadly in 1997 we got nuLabour.

Never thought of it like that.

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Democorruptcy
50 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think I've bored on about this before,but in a lot of the seats they lost,Tory numbers were flat or up on or two thousand.Labour were down 5/6/7000.

Labour picked up remainers nationally,covered up the drubbing in the North if you only looked at the national vote figures.

Labour lost those votes to the Brexit Party, by betraying their own voters.

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17 hours ago, One percent said:

In your dreams. The tories hate the working class almost as much as labour does. Not quite but it’s a close run thing 

Traditional labour voters and traditional tory voters have some commonality.

They both believe that a working class man should work for his living. They both have negative feelings about the benefit class. 

Boris is too smart not to try and keep those borrowed votes imo.

There is a ground surge of nationalism from the USA to Eastern Europe. Some troughers are fighting to keep globalism alive because that's where their trough is.

I'm hoping that Boris is a savvy trougher and rides the nationalism wave. He's a fair weather politician and if he decides to go anti globalist, he will get the place in history that he craves. 

He'll be the same trougher, except that he will have a different trough.

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On 20/12/2019 at 22:41, jm51 said:

Traditional labour voters and traditional tory voters have some commonality.

They both believe that a working class man should work for his living. They both have negative feelings about the benefit class. 

Boris is too smart not to try and keep those borrowed votes imo.

There is a ground surge of nationalism from the USA to Eastern Europe. Some troughers are fighting to keep globalism alive because that's where their trough is.

I'm hoping that Boris is a savvy trougher and rides the nationalism wave. He's a fair weather politician and if he decides to go anti globalist, he will get the place in history that he craves. 

He'll be the same trougher, except that he will have a different trough.

This.

 

Winning the elections from now on should involve - if nationalist politicians want to take the gloves off - continually smashing the sources of funding for the troughers by publicising their incomes.

Opponent owns a property portfolio rented out?  wants mass immigration to get loverly ocuncil benefit money

Opponent recieved grants from EU/Soros/China?  publicise and criticise.  Use the words 'paid for'.  Use the words 'traitor'.  

Critic on BBC?  expose the EU money

Critic from University?  Expose the grants and foriegn student income

They hate you anyway, embrace the hate and expose their self interestetc etc etc

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