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Economic "bounce" and Budget thread


spunko

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Democorruptcy
55 minutes ago, Tdog said:

So 20% Help to Buy was clearly not enough. The free market Tory party have come up with 30% Life time gift to FTBers, so long as they dont move.

And the Tory voters on here wonder why i highlight them for being socialists.

But why is it only in the local area, what about people who have to "get on their bike" for work.

Its fucken absurd all the builders will do is stick another 30% on top for houses specifically built for this scam, all paid for by mug tax payers. Another direct handout of billions to shareholders and directors. 

Yes the next 5 years are going to be the same as the last 10.

https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news/local-ftbs-to-get-30-discounts-queens-speech/

It was in their manifesto:

The biggest problem that young people face in getting on the housing ladder is the deposit. There are more than three million people, many of them with good jobs and secure prospects, who would have been homeowners before the economic crisis in 2008 but have been locked out of the mortgage market. We will encourage a new market in long-term fixed rate mortgages which slash the cost of deposits, opening up a secure path to home ownership for first-time buyers in all parts of the United Kingdom.

We will offer more homes to local families, enabling councils to use developers’ contributions via the planning process to discount homes in perpetuity by a third for local people who cannot otherwise afford to buy in their area. Councils could use this to prioritise key workers in their area, like police, nurses and teachers. 

We will maintain our commitment to a Right to Buy for all council tenants. We will also maintain the voluntary Right to Buy scheme agreed with housing associations. Following the successful voluntary pilot scheme in the Midlands, we will evaluate new pilot areas in order to spread the dream of home ownership to even more people. And we have extended the Help to Buy scheme from 2021 to 2023 and will review new ways to support home ownership following its completion.

We will reform shared ownership, making it fairer and more transparent. We will simplify shared ownership products by setting a single standard for all housing associations, thereby ending the confusion and disparity between different schemes.

We will continue with our reforms to leasehold including implementing our ban on the sale of new leasehold homes, restricting ground rents to a peppercorn, and providing necessary mechanisms of redress for tenants.

We will bring in a Better Deal for Renters, including abolishing ‘no fault’ evictions and only requiring one ‘lifetime’ deposit which moves with the tenant. This will create a fairer rental market: if you’re a tenant, you will be protected from revenge evictions and rogue landlords, and if you’re one of the many good landlords, we will strengthen your rights of possession.

https://assets-global.website-files.com/5da42e2cae7ebd3f8bde353c/5dda924905da587992a064ba_Conservative 2019 Manifesto.pdf

 

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Democorruptcy
9 minutes ago, Tdog said:

No it isnt its the fact that a simple 3 bed house in an OK area costs somewhere between 8 to ##  times average local salary.

If a 3 bed house cost 140K, which it would in a nation where the plebs arent as docile as brits and think unaffordable housing is a good thing ... then raising 5% of that would not be an issue.

The reason i state 5% is because clearly such a figure is not absurd an bubble price so banks wouldnt be needing a larger deposit for when things go tits up.

Are you still thinking about single income mortgages? How quaint! It's 4x joint income.

I think they will do 100%, 30 or 40 year fixed rate mortgages. Buyers putting deposits down will be like single income mortgages, so yesterday.

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34 minutes ago, spunko said:

@Tdog I don't fully understand the costings. It sounds like the Government want the housebuilders to fund the "hit" through CIL payments, i.e. instead of the usual bribes like "you can build these ugly slaveboxes if you give £100k to the local school", they are now saying in addition to that, housebuilders need to be contributing to this. But how?  By charging more on the non-keyworker houses...?

Keyworker scheme is an outrage anyway, why should people who work in the public service get a subsidised house when it's been proven they earn more than private sector, like for like?

Bin the entire thing, bump up the interest rates, and stop foreigners buying here. it's so simple.

Currently they have to designate x% to social housing. I’d imagine instead they get sold at a discount to local first time buyers?

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1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Are you still thinking about single income mortgages? How quaint! It's 4x joint income.

I think they will do 100%, 30 or 40 year fixed rate mortgages. Buyers putting deposits down will be like single income mortgages, so yesterday.

It wouldn’t surprise me if they bought in a government guarantee on purchases below £250k. Borrower can’t pay, it’s no longer the bank’s problem but the governments. 

I was looking at Dutch mortgages yesterday. They have such a scheme. As long as the value of a house is less than €310k you qualify for a government guarantee so cheaper mortgages. You can get a 30 year fix with no deposit for 2.05%.

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Democorruptcy

Also in their manifesto was:

Quote

Infrastructure first. We will amend planning rules so that the infrastructure – roads, schools, GP surgeries – comes before people move into new homes. And our new £10 billion Single Housing Infrastructure Fund will help deliver it faster.

Is that going to be taxpayer's money paying for work that house builder's should be paying for, to increase their profit margins?

£2bn into the NHS is big news, £10bn bung to builders on the hush hush? Surely not?

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Democorruptcy
6 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

It wouldn’t surprise me if they bought in a government guarantee on purchases below £250k. Borrower can’t pay, it’s no longer the bank’s problem but the governments. 

I was looking at Dutch mortgages yesterday. They have such a scheme. As long as the value of a house is less than €310k you qualify for a government guarantee so cheaper mortgages. You can get a 30 year fix with no deposit for 2.05%.

Quite likely. The longer the term the less likely the price drops? Safe as houses!

On a £600k Help to Buy in London the 40% governbankment guarantee already gifts a bank £240k if the price dropped enough. 

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I was in conversation with an analyst from Odey Asset Management a few weeks back and I could have been talking to our very own Durham Born. the only difference was they were too early in their call to market direction 2014. In summary they were long Gold, Barrick Gold was one share, long the Builders and were short for a time with Legal & General that was a call they got wrong (for now)

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32 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Currently they have to designate x% to social housing. I’d imagine instead they get sold at a discount to local first time buyers?

Is social housing sold at a discount then? I just assumed local authorities were paying the normal rates, but I don't know.

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Democorruptcy
5 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Absolutely nothing is beyond this vile socialist government. Still lets all mock Corbyn as he wants to bring house prices down and see a bit of price discovery.

People of Britain are beyond fucken stupid voting for a socialist Tory party.

Have you got a link?

Labour's manifesto:

Quote

Labour’s plan for home-ownership will mean a new programme of homes for first-time buyers discounted with prices linked to local incomes, ‘first dibs’ for local people on new homes built in their area, action to stabilise house price inflation and an end to the leasehold scandal.
https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/13218_19-Housing-Manifesto-v4.pdf

They were also keeping HTB focussed on FTB like the Tories.

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50 minutes ago, Tdog said:

But the only way they can make such handouts is if house prices stay at absurd levels.

Yes wonder what a keyworker would do if the mechanic didnt fix their car or a plumber didnt fix their heating. But everyone is equal in the UK job market, but some are more equal than others.

Its this kind of crap that i was despairing at prior to the election, people whine on about Corbyn being socialist and picking winners, but what the fuck is this. 

What the fuck is this? It's Boris and the Tories propping up their housebuilder chums, ~20% of Tory quaffers are filled by donations from housebuilders, and a similar % from landowners who want to flog their land.

They can hide behind the dubious stats like "10% of the workforce relies on housebuilding" etc.

I feel really sorry for the other younger folk who can't afford a home in the SE in particular as it's only going to get worse for them short-term with Boris the plate-spinner in charge. 

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4 minutes ago, spunko said:

Is social housing sold at a discount then? I just assumed local authorities were paying the normal rates, but I don't know.

I assume so. I remember reading an article where Tony Pidgley of Berkeley was moaning about it.

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1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

I assume so. I remember reading an article where Tony Pidgley of Berkeley was moaning about it.

It could be, housebuilders really don't like social housing (so called) and spend vast amounts of money arguing legal loopholes to only build 10% instead of the 20-40% required... I just assumed they didn't like them because of the problems they create for those on the estate not living in social.

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Democorruptcy
8 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Its not 4 x joint income, see MMR.

Got a link?

MMR does not restrict mortgage income multiples, it stress tests a borrowers ability to pay but without a maximum mortgage term.

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Just now, spunko said:

It could be, housebuilders really don't like social housing (so called) and spend vast amounts of money arguing legal loopholes to only build 10% instead of the 20-40% required... I just assumed they didn't like them because of the problems they create for those on the estate not living in social.

A new estate near me, it has the usual mix of private/social housing. They have moved scum in from outwith the area. Apparently, it’s like the wild west with a permanent police presence there. 
 

another reason not to buy a new build. 

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4 minutes ago, One percent said:

A new estate near me, it has the usual mix of private/social housing. They have moved scum in from outwith the area. Apparently, it’s like the wild west with a permanent police presence there. 
 

another reason not to buy a new build. 

Yeah I was told recently of a similar story by a (reliable) friend that on his estate there's a psychiatric fruitcake in the social housing who walks around naked in the street and threatens to stab people's kids etc. My house would be up for sale and I'd already be renting if that were me - fuck that...

To be honest I'm glad Boris isn't looking at actually enforcing the 40%, imagine that, half of every new estate almost, filled with junkies, addicts, nutcases, detritus. Awful.

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Democorruptcy
5 minutes ago, Tdog said:

He was going to bring in rent controls and hammer landlords, and build lots of council houses, hardly tinkering at the edges ... One way or another Corbyn would have burst the housing bubble.

I cant stand Corbyn, the rest of Labour are truly repugnant and even worse. But he was offering genuine change, sadly we've got more of what we've been whining at on here and HPC for 15 years.

 

Right, so he never said he wanted to bring house prices down.

I'll tell you what he did say in 2017, that he wanted to extend HTB which was why it was in their manifesto then and not limited to FTB. That gave the Tories an open goal to extend it past 2018 when it was originally supposed to end.

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3 minutes ago, spunko said:

Yeah I was told recently of a similar story by a (reliable) friend that on his estate there's a psychiatric fruitcake in the social housing who walks around naked in the street and threatens to stab people's kids etc. My house would be up for sale and I'd already be renting if that were me - fuck that...

To be honest I'm glad Boris isn't looking at actually enforcing the 40%, imagine that, half of every new estate almost, filled with junkies, addicts, nutcases, detritus. Awful.

Yeah, i got the story on good authority from my sparky whose mate had bought a very expensive (for the area) detached house.  Social housing with problem families both side. Up for sale and cant sell it. 

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3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Right, so he never said he wanted to bring house prices down.

I'll tell you what he did say in 2017, that he wanted to extend HTB which was why it was in their manifesto then and not limited to FTB. That gave the Tories an open goal to extend it past 2018 when it was originally supposed to end.

I think the way housing would have crashed with Corbyn would have been along the lines of unintended consequences ref sterling,inflation,unemployment.

Recent socialist leaders have really dissappointed me in terms of how they've been colonised by the 1%.In much the same way as the free marketeers on the Oxbridge blue team.

9 minutes ago, One percent said:

A new estate near me, it has the usual mix of private/social housing. They have moved scum in from outwith the area. Apparently, it’s like the wild west with a permanent police presence there. 
 

another reason not to buy a new build. 

What's not to love for your average HTBer.......nothign like a bit of diversity to enrich the area.

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13 minutes ago, spunko said:

It could be, housebuilders really don't like social housing (so called) and spend vast amounts of money arguing legal loopholes to only build 10% instead of the 20-40% required... I just assumed they didn't like them because of the problems they create for those on the estate not living in social.

Have a friend who consults the big builders on these issues.Exactly as you say,less is more to them.

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Democorruptcy
6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think the way housing would have crashed with Corbyn would have been along the lines of unintended consequences ref sterling,inflation,unemployment.

Recent socialist leaders have really dissappointed me in terms of how they've been colonised by the 1%.In much the same way as the free marketeers on the Oxbridge blue team.

Lower sterling might encouraged more foreign buyers. When inflation is running houses are protection against, particularly if wages are rising but interest rates aren't by as much as inflation. TPTB argue that if house prices are falling, that's what creates unemployment. Even if Corbyn had got in, they still might have done more to stop nominal house price falls. Particularly when the Treasury let them know how much they are on the hook for under HTB. They wouldn't want the public to realise that HTB was not to help FTB just to bail bankers out again   

The financial sector have control of the governbankment and I cannot see that ending in my lifetime.

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3 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Yes private companies should not be building these houses which then get gifted to private so called social housing associations where the well connected make extreme sums.

 

You may find this hard to beleive but it's worse than that.Huge sums are paid to these CEO's as if they're running a decent sized private company.

 

Council hosuing-iirc-that was sold privately-has moslty reverted to private LL's.

Breaks me when I see British people getting put down the hosuing list because they've been usurped by people with higher points scores from abroad.

Unfortuantely,Corbyn thought bringing more people in wasa  great idea.

 

On balance,if I'd been forced to vote Red/Blue Oxbridge teams,I'd likely have picked the red team.Luckily it's a free country and I ddin't have to.At least with Corbyn,you could jsut run a huge sterling short alongside your woeful CPI pay rise.

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1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Lower sterling might encouraged more foreign buyers. When inflation is running houses are protection against, particularly if wages are rising but interest rates aren't by as much as inflation. TPTB argue that if house prices are falling, that's what creates unemployment. Even if Corbyn had got in, they still might have done more to stop nominal house price falls. Particularly when the Treasury let them know how much they are on the hook for under HTB. They wouldn't want the public to realise that HTB was not to help FTB just to bail bankers out again   

The financial sector have control of the governbankment and I cannot see that ending in my lifetime.

If by foreign buyers you mean people who pitch up in a rubber dinghy,maybe.Corbyn would have scared big moeny out of this country in a heartbeat.

 

ref HTB,at some point the public are going to work out theyve been conned.Historically,bad things happen thereafter.Politcal elite already in trouble.Lot of tory toffs I know are very smug about how well they undertand the plight of working class people.Rather missing the point that they bought off the brexit party and a load of labout voters stayed at home.

Social upheavel is inbound imho.Brexit showed me that people are well aware of how accurate your last point in boldis

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Just now, Tdog said:

Its landlordism on steroids and without the risks for the CEO's. Rents should be connected to wages ie 1/4th of average salary as opposed to a small percent off local private sector. 

Id have chosen Labour despite being a Brexit voting, person wanting free markets ... as i believe his spending would have led to higher interest rates far quicker, and given the choice of the red brand of socialism over the blue brand .. i'd opt for red as at least i may get a crumb from the table.

That would have been my logic.

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