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Asking prices down 7% from peak...


TheCountOfNowhere

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TheCountOfNowhere
2 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Do you have any regional splits for the figures, or a London and a Not-London split? I would love -7% to be true but just not seeing it in my area of interest. But then it is a very popular area in the north so probably not reflective. 

Yes, though this is the 1st quarter it's been available. 

East of england, S. E and S.W down around 3 to 4 % qoq. 

West mids showed a 2% ish drop surprisingly. 

Most were static, peaked imho. 

Biggest surprise was london was up a bit. 

Looking at last years data Q1 of the year showed a big drop, so hoping to see 10% down from peak. 

Was around 400,000 listing which was down about 13%

The info is on the @ukpropertylion twitter feed. 

I'd like to get a MsM outlet interested in it so if anyone is able to help with that I'm all ears. 

 

 

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Napoleon Dynamite
On 11/01/2020 at 15:10, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Have you heard the news today.. 

https://www.twitter.com/ukpropertylion

I always though an initial price index was some kind of a, sick joke...

Thanks.

Is interesting to get an alternative index, it gives more of an insight into what's going on (since Rightmove Trends is long gone).

You know when HaliWideMove come out with a 0.1% growth figure it's been manipulated.

 

 

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Napoleon Dynamite
1 hour ago, Tdog said:

HTB1 (new builds) and FFL came in first part of 2013 ... but it was HTB2 which was announced around September 2013 to be introduced in Q1 2014 where people could use it to buy 2nd hand houses which is what sent the market absolutely mental.  It showed everyone the Tories were going to inflate the bubble no matter how corrupt and stupid the idea. 

In hindsight clearly it had taken a few months for the banks to realise what to do with the FFL money, and mixed with HTB just sent prices sky high.

I arrived at Changi airport on my way to a job in October 2013 and read that Gidiot had brought HTB2 forward to be introduced with immediate effect, and knew exactly what it meant.

In that the money i was about to earn would be obliterated thanks to taxpayer funded Tory HPI ... I was going on a 6 week job where id make about £20k, working 12 hours ever day for 42 days. By the time i got back house prices had gone up by around this amount of money already. Shows what use manual labour is under the free market Tories.

Similar here.   2011/12 I was happily saving money, whilst prices dropped.

2013 Osborne introduced HTB and thanks to TOS (for all it's faults and things it got wrong) I knew what it meant; time to bite the bullet and buy before as the HPI started again.  Didn't realise it was the start of another 6 years of it though.

Does feel like we just gone over the cusp of peak stupidity again and are on the way down.  Maybe that's why they're about to drop interest rates again.

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I love how Changes from 100% ownership to shared ownership are reported as price ‘‘drops’’ on twitter, I hope your index doesn't use the same methodology!! O.o

Here's one that (hasn't) fallen 30% 

2.jpg.4d9b3a93c697107594aa0df67ffc474a.jpgdoh3.jpg.54b029c6ca67f8d889894bad206742a5.jpgdoh.jpg.8309849cd24524e4c924c98f7cb7ffb8.jpg

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TheCountOfNowhere
7 minutes ago, Napoleon Dynamite said:

Thanks.

Is interesting to get an alternative index, it gives more of an insight into what's going on (since Rightmove trend is long gone).

You know when HaliWideMove come out with 0.1% growth figure it's been manipulated.

 

 

Their figures do seem very.... Convenient. 

I should point out that I think its possible for asking prices to fall while sale prices increase. That would need the sale prices to have been much lower than asking prices and that gap to be narrowing. 

I haven't seen any reports that says sale prices were that much lower so I'd expect these falls to eventually show up. 

 

Looks like the boe are going on all in again. These people are either psychos, desperate, evil or beyond corrupt. 

2 minutes ago, Napoleon Dynamite said:

Similar here.   2011/12 I was happily saving money, whilst prices dropped.

2013 Osborne introduced HTB and thanks to TOS (for all it's faults and things it got wrong) I knew what it meant; time to bite the bullet and buy before as the HPI started again.  Didn't realise it was the start of another 6 years of it though.

Does feel like we just gone over the cusp of peak stupidity again and are on the way down.  Maybe that's why they're about to drop interest rates again.

Prime londons been falling for 3 years. I'm surprised they've waiting this long. 

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Napoleon Dynamite
21 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Good decision that site was toxic by then. I was literally a couple of months out with biting the bullet (as the link from Feb 2014 shows)... if id not gone on that job prior to Xmas i was going to buy a 3 bed house in Chandlers Ford for 150K that needed a load of work doing on it. But the thought of a chunk of money for working was a no brainer.

I could never have thought such an irrelevant decision in life having such huge consequences. ( 4 of 5 years after this were in family court which would have been avoided as moving south would have meant being closer to the witch!)

Ive blind optimism the Tories will tighten up on BTL significantly in March and maybe a few other things to "crash the market". Know its been said before after all other elections, but there does seem to be a tad more common sense with this lot than the last decades worth of scum they've had on offer. Only 2 months to be disappointed.

Good decision in retrospect.  But it's swings and roundabouts.  Prior to that though I'd bought 2006 as a FTB.  I was young and naive (prior to discovering TOS) it was pretty much at the top of the market.  So at the time I was realising a £10K loss, >£20K loss if you take into account renovations and time spent.  

Yep Tories have been a let down.  We all thought they were the free market party and that sense would prevail, but that didn't happen.  In their defence Low Interest Rates/Booming house prices is a global thing so not just about their policies. They've tried to sort out BTL chancers, that's no longer such a lucrative route.  MMR looks like an attempt to contain the craziness, but I'm not convinced on that one, maybe its impact is yet to be seen.

Don't think they'll crash the market, but they may won't have a choice, DB's thread holds a bit of hope. Maybe there's a way to prepare yourself for the next downturn so you're in a position to act when others aren't.

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TheCountOfNowhere
41 minutes ago, Tdog said:

DB's topic suggests cash will be king for a brief moment in time ... ie a bust, so i'm most certainly in a very good position if thats the case.

Not sure it will be very long to get a substantial HPC in nominal terms which takes time.

As for my BTL comment, hoping theyll level the game and get rid of MIRAS for basic rate BTLers, not just higher rate.

 

I'm sure Db is right... Just not sure the timing is right. We've had a debt deflation, cash was king, they printed, handed out cash.

So either we get a repeat of this followed by huge inflation or....we are about to go straight to the massive inflation. 

 

Time will tell. 

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TheCountOfNowhere
4 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Yes big decisions with what to do with "cash"  and "pwopertee" will have to be made in the next 12 months or so.

A bust of sorts globally will see job losses here, the infrastructure projects mentioned will take a few years to get off the ground for the mass job creation of people digging holes for others to fill them.

Hence the gap will surely see people/companies being unable to service their debt.

I think you've nailed it tgere

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On 12/01/2020 at 10:43, spygirl said:

Southern household income appears to have fallen in half.

I know of quite a lot of couple who met whilst working at fineec Ltd, both earning large salaries for low skills.

Both lost jobs. He drives taxi, she TA.

300k mortgage with a 60k household income - 5x.

300k mortgage with 30k income - 10x

 

Somethings up when me a glorified care worker is on the national avarage wage ie I should hit 30-31k

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On 13/01/2020 at 09:56, spunko said:

What a lot of trades people fail to understand is that the price of doing any work now is about twice what it was 10 years ago, and for no apparent reason (I know there are reasons, but that's not immediately obvious when the quote comes through). We were promised cheap labour and plumbers and carpenters from Warsaw and Bucharest, but we were sold a lie, because the prices have actually rocketed.

I just had a quote for a porch, 12 GRAND. It's just mental.

Might or might not be a fair price, almost like building a small house, the creeping requirements across the board from building regs and the minefield of getting decent quality materials (at a price), depends on spec, materials, almost like building a small house with mix of trades. Friend had a quote quite a few years ago (admittedly sizeable porch) for around £20k, considered quoting for it but realised too much for me to take on on my own and reliant on there trades plenty of risk. Take on a trusted builder on day rate and for sure it would be cheaper as taking main risks out of the job and maybe timing expectations.

What happened? Mid 2000's migrant labour dumped rates when house prices were rocketing, regs were really kicking in and so were the costs. Many already in the trade left, retired early, gave up, got a full time job as better paid and less hassle and much greater dependability, newcomers looking in said sod that.

Met an Australian last week, over here working/living with his friend the last year. He's back off home, electrician (not sure if fully/part qualified/ registered, not even sure what qualifies and allows him to work in UK in terms of visas). Anyway, he was on a zero hours contract with care home. Obviously couldn't make that work to even pay rent and basic bills. The building game you are basically digging around in the dirt or charge a price that is going to make a living, do a decent job and expect to be paid for it or walk away. Doing a job properly is costly in time and money.

£200 for a socket, goes with the territory, perceived value feck all actual amount of work to do the job can be considerable, best you can do with electrics (apart from lights) is hide it completely and provide the functionality, you can clip a cable on the surface and basically complete a job in under an hour, alternatively you can move all the furniture, take the floor up carefully without destroying it make all the holes at reg's recommend size/placement,, chase walls, repair, test, write up and lodge paperwork if required, put all furnishings back, going to take a day. That's if you are lucky and there is a decent route for the cable, the room isn't stacked with furniture and there's a solid floor, then you are looking at going up through the ceiling which means you are upstairs moving furniture and pulling all the carpets up. 

Reckon since about 2008/10 there has been 50% inflation in many areas of expenditure and almost none of it is shown in the headline figures and basically the figures are nothing but a fraud now. Apparently from the news inflation is weak thanks sales/discounting on high street and hotel prices, last time I stayed in a hotel in the UK was 3 years ago and that was a couple of one night transits in a premier inn in a shithole town.

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On 13/01/2020 at 22:08, Tdog said:

DB's topic suggests cash will be king for a brief moment in time ... ie a bust, so i'm most certainly in a very good position if thats the case.

Not sure it will be very long to get a substantial HPC in nominal terms which takes time.

As for my BTL comment, hoping theyll level the game and get rid of MIRAS for basic rate BTLers, not just higher rate.

 

No.

DB suggestions are based on investing around strong commodities and relatively bomb proof earners, yielders, with global sales.

 

 

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6 hours ago, stokiescum said:

Somethings up when me a glorified care worker is on the national avarage wage ie I should hit 30-31k

Dont put yourself down. You earn it - shifts, bellends etc.

Someone working in retail will spend 80% of their time doing nothing.

Someone in fincsec work is bets done by a computer.

The answer to 'What will all the people working in shops/banks/etc do if they are laid off?'

Care work.

Next question.

 

 

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On 13/01/2020 at 22:08, Tdog said:

DB's topic suggests cash will be king for a brief moment in time ... ie a bust, so i'm most certainly in a very good position if thats the case.

Not sure it will be very long to get a substantial HPC in nominal terms which takes time.

As for my BTL comment, hoping theyll level the game and get rid of MIRAS for basic rate BTLers, not just higher rate.

 

Its not MIRAS. Its offsetting rental income against mortgage interest payments.

It does need scrapping though .

Then they need to force up the IO BTL SVR. Easily done as the BoE should already be chasing IO BTL loans off regulated banks book.

Simply moving all IO BTL loans off banks (who can draw down from BoE) and putting them into the specialist finance providors who have to raise all the money by a bond will force IO BTL rates 8%+ - into the business loan territory, which is where they should have been in the first place.

The closest match for IO BTL is a non amortising commercial bridging loan, which costs about 2% a month.

Basically, you want a good 5% in IR difference between a BTLer and an OO.

 

 

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4 hours ago, onlyme said:

Might or might not be a fair price, almost like building a small house, the creeping requirements across the board from building regs and the minefield of getting decent quality materials (at a price), depends on spec, materials, almost like building a small house with mix of trades. Friend had a quote quite a few years ago (admittedly sizeable porch) for around £20k, considered quoting for it but realised too much for me to take on on my own and reliant on there trades plenty of risk. Take on a trusted builder on day rate and for sure it would be cheaper as taking main risks out of the job and maybe timing expectations.

 

Interesting thanks. I thought £20k for a porch was daylight robbery (on their part). But maybe it's not too OTT.

 

My porch design is similar to this:

maxresdefault.jpg

This looks like it has been done on a listed building too, the use of reclaimed tiles and bricks add to the cost but I still just cannot understand £20k. The timber frame is going to be the biggest cost, not had any quotes for that yet, but I'm assuming about £2k (oak)?

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27 minutes ago, spunko said:

Interesting thanks. I thought £20k for a porch was daylight robbery (on their part). But maybe it's not too OTT.

 

My porch design is similar to this:

maxresdefault.jpg

This looks like it has been done on a listed building too, the use of reclaimed tiles and bricks add to the cost but I still just cannot understand £20k. The timber frame is going to be the biggest cost, not had any quotes for that yet, but I'm assuming about £2k (oak)?

Just had a quick look at off the shelf prices for an oak porch (all fairly minimal really in design - at least from this supplier that is coming up at 2k. That is a frame only manufactured in a factory from predefined size selection and design and pretty basic with none of the infill etc. Bespoke reckon you could double that with the added elements at least, but say £4k. Another £500 for an oak door of any decent quality (one that won't warp and buckle with a few years). Glass, say £100 per pane. Lead another £100. Reclaimed tiles say £200. Bricks £100. Misc items another £200 - probably more a decent weather resistant finish is £50 a tin. That's £5200 in bare materials alone. Using the 1/3 labour, 1/3 materials, 1/3 profit metric  £12k in the right ballpark really for a professional  job with good materials and skills. If you went something like labour only you could strip a third off a fixed priced job (basically the profit element). Building regs (small porch)  looks like windows and any electrical will need passing and as long as front door stays in place then can do footings as you see fit, might as well insulate the floor though if having to put in full regs windows.

 

https://oaktimberframing.com/oak-porch-prices/

Might be a supplier somewhere that can provide full oak frame porch plus all glazing to suit, might get a better price in total, certainly worth and look but be careful of quality, it is a bit like sheds, you think you are buying a 6x4 shed online and you end up with the flimsiest POC you can imagine.

Mate's porch at £20k was natural stone, so more like building a small extension really. But materials cheaper than oak.

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11 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Just had a quick look at off the shelf prices for an oak porch (all fairly minimal really in design - at least from this supplier that is coming up at 2k. That is a frame only manufactured in a factory from predefined size selection and design and pretty basic with none of the infill etc. Bespoke reckon you could double that with the added elements at least, but say £4k. Another £500 for an oak door of any decent quality (one that won't warp and buckle with a few years). Glass, say £100 per pane. Lead another £100. Reclaimed tiles say £200. Brocks £100. Misc items another £200 - probably more a decent weather resistant finish is £50 a tin. That's £5200 in bare materials alone. Using the 1/3 labour, 1/3 materials, 1/3 profit metric  £12k in the right ballpark really for a professional  job with good materials and skills. If you went something like labour only you could strip a the off a fixed priced job (basically the profit element). Building regs (small porch)  looks like windows and any electrical will need passing and as long as front door stays in place then can do footings as you see fit, might as well insulate the floor though if having to put in full regs windows.

 

https://oaktimberframing.com/oak-porch-prices/

Might be a supplier somewhere that can provide full oak frame porch plus all glazing to suit, might get a better price in total, certainly worth and look but be careful of quality, it is a bit like sheds, you think you are buying a 6x4 shed online and you end up with the flimsiest POC you can imagine.

Mate's porch at £20k was natural stone, so more like building a small extension really. But materials cheaper than oak.

A third profit - no wonder builders are pricey, I thought they aimed for 20%.

I am going to be sourcing a lot of the materials myself to save cost, I was budgeting about £8k total so hopefully it's possible....  :(

Already got the tiles thankfully from previous building that was knocked down, council are strict and state I have to "try" to reuse them anwyay.

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1 hour ago, spunko said:

A third profit - no wonder builders are pricey, I thought they aimed for 20%.

I am going to be sourcing a lot of the materials myself to save cost, I was budgeting about £8k total so hopefully it's possible....  :(

Already got the tiles thankfully from previous building that was knocked down, council are strict and state I have to "try" to reuse them anwyay.

I'm not exactly sure how the figures run but that is the metric I've heard a few times. Profit is the tenuous part in it - assuming all their direct labour costs are accounted for (either internally or externally) then the profit part is the bit that goes to the building company / owners / lead builder on a job who subcontracts out.  Expenses are high, downtime and weather rated issues can be real problematic, there\s a shed load of tools you need for things like a complete build and if you don't own them  and have the money invested there then you'll be passing on hundreds of pounds a day on a small job to hire companies - long term rates are far better but day to day hire is crucifying. Then there's cost of storage for all those tools if you do have them and they are prime target to get nicked, you'll lose £2-3K at the very least each time that happens. Non payment, staff / contract labour issues. Very difficult to keep a full pipeline and keep all customers happy. If you worked on a 20% margin you are not going to be rich unless you are doing large contracts, employing lots of staff.

Definitely collect materials together first if you can get them at a good price - tiles hopefully OK and not beyond service life, builder will tell you pretty quickly if not - if they are cracking/breaking in the hand or with a little force no use trying to nail them up there and expecting them to last that experience or much longer. Nice old bricks worth looking out for - look the part and costly to replicate, just make sure whatever you do buy is in significant enough bulk to do the job with some margin.  Doubt you will find suitable oak of right quality/dimensions, appropriately sized glass, might find a nice door / door furniture, so one of those jobs where savings are somewhat limited on the materials side apart from making sure you get all the basics at best price - sand/cement/lime, concrete, insulation, plasterboard for interior lining if there is any at cheapest supply prices possible.  Time is best spent I reckon on getting the best possible price for the oak frame and most likely getting an off the shelf design that will fit.

If you employed a trusted tradesman who could do the lot there is money to be saved if you do some of the legwork, getting materials on site, clearing site afterwards (costly for builder/commerical waste) but it is riskier and really would need to be someone you can trust but you will be taking more risk on the project. 

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1 minute ago, onlyme said:

@spunko Look everywhere everywhere as well, this guy's work looks nice, price competitive too.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Oak-Frame-Porch/264598445484?hash=item3d9b4bddac:g:d8QAAOSw6KxcN7Dn

I'm afraid on that front I have to be quite exact because my house is listed so if I put in something even slightly different to the approved then I'll have to replace it :(

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Any sensible tradesman - or woman -will build a hefty percentage of not-getting-risk into their quote. I know one who includes a ~20% non-payment premium.

Its only when youve done more work with a client  or know them - my mums builder went to primary with me - then you can derisk the price.

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On 17/01/2020 at 09:47, onlyme said:

Just had a quick look at off the shelf prices for an oak porch...

Great reply there.

On 17/01/2020 at 09:47, onlyme said:

it is a bit like sheds, you think you are buying a 6x4 shed online and you end up with the flimsiest POC you can imagine.

100%.  Built a small one last year as the online ones are rubbish.  Concrete base, vertical t&g over lined osb, insulated, plywood lined inside, metal roof, etc.  Friend said better than most lounges!  Wonderful to look at and functional but not cheap.  But will last.

23 hours ago, onlyme said:

I'm not exactly sure how the figures run

Another good reply.

PS: Had £xk of oak work done last year.  Picked a real craftsman.  It was a pleasure.  Adds to the value I get when I look at it.  Took an interest and helped out so had a good relationship which helped when we hit snags and omissions from the spec.  Bad oak work is a sin!

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23 hours ago, spygirl said:

Any sensible tradesman - or woman -will build a hefty percentage of not-getting-risk into their quote.

Done quotes in a couple of industries.  We always added a hefty premium and/or tough contract for fixed price, tough contract, or iffy customer.  Hard when you're the customer.  I try to pick the contractor well and go day rate so we can deal in days when we hit problems, etc.  Makes any discussion more real.  Also pin down the stuff like site clearance and then offer to do!

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Funny, it was a shite builder that got me into the game!  Had to cancel future work and redo myself.  Cheaper, easy, and far better.  So off I went.

But will always use trades where necessary or where I want a top job.  Just hard to know.  Even the best have bad days and jobs.  I also look after them as I appreciate what it's like on the other end.  The good/confident ones will open up and work well for a proper job.

The problem these days is the race to the bottom on product and skills.  Like say sheds.  Sound cheap and set an expectation but can be total rubbish for most people.  Good stuff costs while cheap shite just costs later, plus a bit more.

Interesting how the majority these days won't try.  I read this week that TP is looking to sell Wickes and focus on the trades as that's the trend - pay someone to do something.  Seen this personally too.  The young guy in Ikea seemed amazed I would fit the stuff myself.  Younguns not even prepared to make (assemble!) a bed!  Maybe a sign of the attitudes instilled at school these days (cult of the so called "educated" so called specialist, etc)

Maybe trades will have a good future!

PS:  The Ikea kitchen folk have some excellent talents and experience.  Some are well used to hackers (like me) using their stuff for other things!  Like campervans!

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14 minutes ago, Harley said:

Funny, it was a shite builder that got me into the game!  Had to cancel future work and redo myself.  Cheaper, easy, and far better.  So off I went.

But will always use trades where necessary or where I want a top job.  Just hard to know.  Even the best have bad days and jobs.  I also look after them as I appreciate what it's like on the other end.

The problem these days is the race to the bottom on product and skills.  Like say sheds.  Sound cheap and set an expectation but can be total rubbish for most people.  Good stuff costs while cheap shite just costs later.

Interesting how the majority these days won't try.  I read this week that TP is looking to sell Wickes and focus on the trades as that's the trend - pay someone to do something.  Seen this personally too.  The young guy in Ikea seemed amazed I would fit the stuff myself.  Younguns not even prepared to make (assemble!) a bed!  Maybe a sign of the attitudes instilled at school these days (cult of the so called "educated" so called specialist, etc)

Maybe trades will have a good future!

TP pricing so way over the top, very little I buy from them for my current extension, most materials I buy from a local buying supplier much cheaper loose, found a small trailer (400kg nominally) just brilliant for what I need and very close so not much wasted downtime, they just have a yard and blockwork bins for the materials storage and a JCB with front loader / weigher. Quick, efficient and even better when I get back I can unhook the trailer and half a ton with big trailer wheels is manageable to push round and tip wherever I want - front garden/backgarden no problem.  None of the hassle of decanting out of a ton bag dropped kerbside or re-shovelling/loading material tipped on drive. Anyway back to TP,  if it is anything like they were it is the split invoicing for trades allowing trades to disguise actual materials price to customer whilst TP still manage to sell the same as they do in Wickes for more.

Sheds - an ideal build for cheap and s/h materials, some fencing companies that do commercial site fencing will sell off used OSB very cheap, perfectly good for strengthening sides / roof before cladding with something that looks nice. That's a big lump off the build cost when you get sheet materials for £5 to £10 a sheet.

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41 minutes ago, Harley said:

Done quotes in a couple of industries.  We always added a hefty premium and/or tough contract for fixed price, tough contract, or iffy customer.  Hard when you're the customer.  I try to pick the contractor well and go day rate so we can deal in days when we hit problems, etc.  Makes any discussion more real.  Also pin down the stuff like site clearance and then offer to do!

There are conoanies orgs people im happy to go out on a branch n sort out, without having a contract in place. I know tgeyll pay me and well be able to sort any niggles out like grownup adults, not toddler-lawyers.

There are other orgs where, even if everything was nailed down 200% and fully specced whod make my life hell n quibble about tge niney - after signing off on tge rates.

I avoid these - Im sorry, im not got a window for 24 months. Shall i pencil you in for 2022?

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