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Will We Go “Japan” ?


Libspero

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This article just got me thinking..  could UK plc “go Japanese” as the economy rebalances?  Will we see negative interest rates and unfettered additional money printing?

 Sterling has slipped following news that the economy shrank unexpectedly in November, extending earlier losses against the dollar.

The UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.3 per cent during the month as the manufacturing and production sectors declined more than expected. The figure was expected to be flat.

https://www.cityam.com/uk-gdp-economy-shrank-0-3-per-cent-in-run-up-to-election/


 

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2 hours ago, Libspero said:

This article just got me thinking..  could UK plc “go Japanese” as the economy rebalances?  Will we see negative interest rates and unfettered additional money printing?

 


 

I think we wont see negative interest rates because quite simply theyll kill the big banks.Japan got in first by thirty years so has got to bloat it's balance sheet way beyond where the UK will get.

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PatronizingGit
15 hours ago, Tdog said:

But without their slim slender feminine and graceful women ... or HPC ... or indigenous population ... or nationalist govt that doesnt give away its assets to low bidders.

Image result for beautiful japanese women"

Yep. Japanese police don't have enough crime to keep them busy.

UK police have too much crime, much of which cannot be investigated because diversity is our strength, and questioning it, much less arresting, charging, prosecuting and then locking it up until its testosterone levels subside is our weakness.

 

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PatronizingGit
6 hours ago, spygirl said:

No.

Japan is a freak.

High export.

Massive debt, held mainly by Japanese.

 

Its interesting as to how this works. Kyle Bass a few years back, around the time of the big quake was predicting the imminent demise of Japan. I think he referred to it as a three legged stool, and the legs were exports, domestic savings (being run down as more retire than enter workforce) and something else I forget. 

 

And yet still they stagger on, probably doing better than us, on an individual basis, our figs fudged by the constant inflow of low productivity, high debt consumption immigrants. 

 

He seems to have moved on to whining about China now. 

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8 hours ago, PatronizingGit said:

Its interesting as to how this works. Kyle Bass a few years back, around the time of the big quake was predicting the imminent demise of Japan. I think he referred to it as a three legged stool, and the legs were exports, domestic savings (being run down as more retire than enter workforce) and something else I forget. 

 

And yet still they stagger on, probably doing better than us, on an individual basis, our figs fudged by the constant inflow of low productivity, high debt consumption immigrants. 

 

He seems to have moved on to whining about China now. 

Kyle Bass alognside Hugh Hendry,one of the most eloquent bears of the 2009 to 2013 phase of the melt up.

 

I remember his warnings about Japan.I remember Hendry doing some amazing you tube pieces from China.Two intelligent people.Both had poor timing.Doesnt mean they wont be right.

 

Japanese Govt has become one of the major buyers in the stock market

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Bank-of-Japan-to-be-top-shareholder-of-Japan-stocks

TOKYO -- The Bank of Japan will overtake a state-run pension fund as the top shareholder in Tokyo-listed companies as early as 2020, Nikkei calculations show, as concerns rise regarding the central bank's outsize role in the nation's capital market.

The BOJ held over 28 trillion yen ($250 billion) in exchange-traded funds as of the end of March -- 4.7% of the total market capitalization of the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

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Couldn't rule it out given what we've seen over the last few years but my bet is the plates will come crashing down here eventually. How long is a piece of string as to when though. The Japs have very high savings rates so far as I understand. So in other words the true lender of last resort (i.e. the taxpayer or private citizen, not the central bank) has a few quid on hand to at least sure up confidence.

On our end we now have chumps driving around in Astons on PCP deals for £1k a month. 

 

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7 hours ago, dgul said:

We'd be lucky.

We would.

Theres never a single, simple answer why an economy is doing well or shit.

Japan has two main problems:

1) Massive debt overhang as the banks printed more n more n more in the run up to the 80s.

Stupid stupid.

Exactly  the same as Swden at the same time, Iceland  up the mid 200s and, to a lesser extent, the UK.

2) Fall in the number of of working age adults.

ENG_Nov_15_JPN_Gender.jpg

Massive problem for any economy that is carrying a lot of debt.

When you look at Japanese growth, sure, they did not do as good as the UK 2002-2007ish - they did not have the genius of the one eyed cunt. However, taking into account demographics then Japanese growth has been much better than the UKs post 2008.

 

The lessons that should have been learned to Japan are

- Keep an eye on bank credit growth.

- Dont have too much long term non amortising debt is your work force is shrinking.

 

 

 

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