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Posted (edited)

^Certainly Elon is a strange character. He is selling all his Californian homes according to the Beeb

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52530316

But more importantly, we get to know this -

allow the child to choose its own gender.

--

Shouldn't this be kept private?

So if you were Elon, would you behave in this way on social media? I have no doubt I would not be doing this. Did he not learn after the Thai trapped kids underground, and his other tweet about taking TSLA private? Such folly brought him a lot of trouble and headache. For one with such wealth, it just boggles the mind.

 

 

 

Edited by 201p

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Posted (edited)

I think people who are used to being in control of things such as Elon and the Ford CEO, are finding it difficult in these times.

Perhaps they need to focus on things that they can control rather than things they can't control, until things get better. If they could time travel, and re-run this as a simulation many times, it is probably true, there would be a path they could take that would put them in better place, BUT they would not be in the position where they are now in terms of power and wealth in the first place. It's like when Captain Picard died, and Q gave him a chance to rerun his life "safer". The outcome was, that it was safer, but he never became Captain, and achieved only a low rank. A terrible underachiever (to him).

If you were Elon, and the only thing you could control was the share price (and that is downwards), you'd press that button (in this case twitter), just to see if it worked. This is probably what I would do if I was in his shoes - but I wouldn't as I know it wouldn't achieve anything except massage my ego a little bit. As far as I know you can't bet on your own shares going down.

I think that can be the simplest explanation, despite all the paper wealth he has under his control. And also why his partner is furious with him. She can't understand why he is behaving like this, when they have just had a lovely child. She was probably thinking about bringing him up in their nice house, not packing their bags at such an important time - what a selfish person!

_112155179_baby.png

"Occupy Mars" Look at this picture - why be advertising your wares even when you are holding your newborn  child? Just drop it, just for a minute? They just named their child as an advert to their business too. In fact if I was the mother, I'd be furious too. 

He is selling everything because he might think the situation is terminal. So I certainly think Vendetta, maybe onto something.

Still always better to be sanguine or an optimist in your darkest hour, you just don't know what may come along. Your job as a leader is to set an example in the face of adversity, and to keep calm and carry on.

Make masks - not ventilators. This isn't what the government wanted. People will want masks for years to come. Even in May 2020, you can't buy them in the shops yet. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has offered to make ventilators for coronavirus sufferers, after the United States appealed for donations of respirator masks to combat a shortage.

Edited by 201p

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So Trump has been criticised for trying to open up America again, whereas (I guess left leaning) Fauci wants more lockdown.

There has been discussion that left leaning people want more lockdown, where as right leaning people want things opened up as soon as possible. The deaths from the economic slow down will be greater than the virus, being the reason.

Elon didn't want the lock down at all it seems and was early in re-opening his factories. Does that make him right leaning, even more so than Trump?

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On 10/06/2020 at 17:35, Knickerless Turgid said:

Finally found the courage of my convictions and opened my first ever short...

My view is if shorting any of the crazy bubble stocks buy out of the money options or have strict stop loss orders on the short. However strong your convictions the crazy valuations can get way way crazier. That is why I would go the options route as your downside is limited and you don't get stopped out by near to mid term whipsawing of the price. 

 

FYI on TSLA I agree its dodgy beyond belief, as someone said earlier its the new Enron. How can a car company that makes 500K cars a year be worth more than GM, Ford, VW combined. 

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11 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

My view is if shorting any of the crazy bubble stocks buy out of the money options or have strict stop loss orders on the short. However strong your convictions the crazy valuations can get way way crazier. That is why I would go the options route as your downside is limited and you don't get stopped out by near to mid term whipsawing of the price. 

 

FYI on TSLA I agree its dodgy beyond belief, as someone said earlier its the new Enron. How can a car company that makes 500K cars a year be worth more than GM, Ford, VW combined. 

I took out the short over 3 months (paid for in the spread), as it was my first play and, without real skin in the game, I find it impossible to understand both the mechanics and the psychology of the game.

I sold out after 36 hours, at a 13% gain, albeit on a modest stake.

I really didn't enjoy the volatility, even though I never breeched the margin (I had kept back 25% of my stake as margin cover; fortunately it was sufficient). I have kept my original stake plus profit in my account, doubtless I will go again at some point, but I have realised that spread-betting is really not for me.

The Tesla situation is, literally, unbelievable - someone or something must have Elon's back, but who and why?

 

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16 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

I took out the short over 3 months (paid for in the spread), as it was my first play and, without real skin in the game, I find it impossible to understand both the mechanics and the psychology of the game.

I sold out after 36 hours, at a 13% gain, albeit on a modest stake.

I really didn't enjoy the volatility, even though I never breeched the margin (I had kept back 25% of my stake as margin cover; fortunately it was sufficient). I have kept my original stake plus profit in my account, doubtless I will go again at some point, but I have realised that spread-betting is really not for me.

The Tesla situation is, literally, unbelievable - someone or something must have Elon's back, but who and why?

 

The Tesla situation on the face of it is absolutely unbelievable, but its real, its happening. Someone must have Elon's back considering how dodgy both he and Tesla are, why they have his back I don't know. Eventually it will come out, might be years from now though.

Someone has his back that is why I would only short via options. 

Broader still I would not recommend shorting single name stocks via spreadbet, especially glamour stocks

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3 hours ago, 201p said:

 

I don't think the shorts are wrong rather they got their timing wrong and didn't anticipate how insane and decoupled from logic the share price would get. I think the share price is going way higher and the valuation is going to get much crazier. But 12-24 months from now reality will start to dawn and Tesla will start to be valued at traditional car company metrics which would in turn lead to a very different shareprice from what we see today

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FT have an article basically outing Tesla as the next Wirecard.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/06/26/1593160826000/Who-s-going-to-be-the-next-Wirecard-/

Quote

Now that Wirecard has been proven once and for all to be a massive fraud and is rapidly dying away into oblivion, many of us — and you, we’re sure — have been thinking about where the next big corporate scandal might come from. 

Mirabaud Securities, the equity research house whose analyst Neil Campling stood out for being the only person to put a price target of zero on the German payments processor, have been thinking about this too.  They’ve come up with 20 warning signs that they are looking out for in trying to determine the next “Big Disaster”. They are as follows:

[The warning signs closely fit a description of Tesla and Musk]

But why?

I think TSLA is massively overvalued, but as far as I can tell this is just a mania coupled with momentum trading -- there doesn't seem to actually be any outright fraud going on.

If there is fraud (ie, 'next Wirecard'), what exactly is it?

[I don't mean them mucking about with reliability statistics, or autopilot killing people, but the inferred '$2bln missing' type of thing]

 

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Charisma Premium.

I think what makes Tesla "special" is the face of it. Elon appears to be a God amongst men (for now). I heard on the radio, that was reading out people's bucket lists - one included "owning a Tesla". 

You don't get the same energy or enthusiasm behind a Nissan Leaf, or a Toyota Prius. Or the same with a Siemens, or Bosch. They don't have a face that they can relate to. You buy a Tesla car, you are buying Elon Musk. That has an extra emotive force behind the brand. So just to be aware of that extra premium behind a corporation which has the original founder in charge and making PR appearances.

The only other example I can think that is similar to Tesla is Apple, even though Steve Jobs is no longer alive, what he has left behind is still there (for now). Donald Trump has a premium effect over his hotels, casinos and tower blocks, although not for everyone.

Bill Gates and Microsoft - do people get excited by a new Windows product these days?

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8480033/Elon-Musks-Tesla-overtakes-Toyota-worlds-valuable-car-manufacturer.html

Elon Musk's Tesla is valued at $209BN and overtakes Toyota to become the world's most valuable car manufacturer as share price surges to record high

Amounting to a record $1,133 per-share, the company's market cap boosted  to $209 billion - $6 billion more than Toyota 

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1 hour ago, 201p said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8480033/Elon-Musks-Tesla-overtakes-Toyota-worlds-valuable-car-manufacturer.html

Elon Musk's Tesla is valued at $209BN and overtakes Toyota to become the world's most valuable car manufacturer as share price surges to record high

Amounting to a record $1,133 per-share, the company's market cap boosted  to $209 billion - $6 billion more than Toyota 

Utter madness, I would have me a land cruiser over any tesla

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The TSLA chart reminds me of something.....

CWR Power holdings! (The Fuel Cell Company)

TSLA isn't just valued as a motor company, it is also an energy storage solution company.

Whether or not it is a bubble is difficult to time, until after the bubble bursts. But then, is CWR overvalued?

Untitled.thumb.gif.852081bc8641789fbb5f25848f030b6f.gif

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Which also reminds me of Enron, which unveiled it's grandiose global goal at the height of the hubris, from being the "Greatest Energy Company", to the "Greatest Company in the World".

I don't know where TSLA will go, it could go much higher if after this recent correction now forms a base here. IF there is black hole, then of course that blows any Technical Analysis out of the water which is hard to time.

Ask one of the many new RobinHood generation of traders about Enron - and I bet few have heard about Enron. History always comes round to teach.

Untitled.gif.2660ff9a40e7446956c06e37b82aec7c.gif

Edited by 201p

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The one thing that is clever about these newer companies is how tight they keep their Intellectual Property to their chests. The biggest and most well known premium brand example is Apple. Everything is tied into their systems and you have to go through them only. It is the same with Tesla products, they are not designed for people to fix themselves. You have to go through Tesla. Bosch (which has a significant stake in CWR) has the same philosophy - you have to have special tools to open up their ebike motors for example, which are not available to the public. I have learned that John Deere that manufactures tractors for farmers have tightened up their properties so you have to use their dealers which have the proprietary software to diagnose problems. 

As people now have less capability or inclination of fixing things themselves, people appear to be happy to pay a premium for these services. I don't see this trend changing for sometime. 

Edited by 201p

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52 minutes ago, 201p said:

The TSLA chart reminds me of something.....

CWR Power holdings! (The Fuel Cell Company)

TSLA isn't just valued as a motor company, it is also an energy storage solution company.

Whether or not it is a bubble is difficult to time, until after the bubble bursts. But then, is CWR overvalued?

Untitled.thumb.gif.852081bc8641789fbb5f25848f030b6f.gif

If one wants to have some exposure to the TSLA bull run, CWR may be a better bet because it is outperformed TSLA over 5 years, and you can afford the shares! I don't have any CWR, as I generally don't like companies that aren't turning a profit or soon to be turning a profit.

Edited by 201p

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