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Coronavirus Economic Impact Thread


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reformed nice guy
36 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

with so many chinese knocking about robbing africa, how no cov-19 there?

"A dish of carrot hastily cooked may still have soil uncleaned off the vegetable."

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Guardian reporting a hotel in Tenerife with 1000 guests is in lockdown after an Italian tourist tested positive.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/25/coronavirus-live-updates-outbreak-latest-news-italy-italia-deaths-symptoms-china-stocks-wall-street-dow-jones-economy-falls
 

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A Tenerife hotel withs 1,000 guests is reportedly in lockdown after an Italian tourist tested positive to contracting the new coronavirus.

The holidaymakers have been quarantined inside the complex, and local reports have named the hotel as the H10 Costa Adeje Palace in Adeje, south of the island. It’s a region that is extremely popular with British tourists at this time of the year.

Police are said to be surrounding the hotel to make sure no one enters or leaves to control the virus’ spread.

 

 

Doesn't look good for this year's holiday season. :ph34r:

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On that same Guardian live update page, France finance minister now saying this will be a game changer.

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The coronavirus epidemic is a game changer for globalisation,” Bruno Le Maire said during a visit to Athens, adding that the outbreak had highlighted an “irresponsible and unreasonable” reliance on China.

“We cannot continue to rely on China for 80 to 85% of pharmaceutical active ingredients,” said Le Maire.

And the resulting industrial slowdown in China would have a “direct impact” on industrial resupply, he said.

 

About time nations looked beyond the price and evaluated the true cost of outsourcing so much. They don't outsource their defence for a similar reason, they should be protecting the nation's interests and not those looking to get even richer off the back of it.

Hope it brings the whole house of cards down. Short term pain for a better future, for those that survive it. :ph34r:

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11 hours ago, BoSon said:

On that same Guardian live update page, France finance minister now saying this will be a game changer.

About time nations looked beyond the price and evaluated the true cost of outsourcing so much. They don't outsource their defence for a similar reason, they should be protecting the nation's interests and not those looking to get even richer off the back of it.

Hope it brings the whole house of cards down. Short term pain for a better future, for those that survive it. :ph34r:

They should, but they won't. Follow the money. 

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17 hours ago, Castlevania said:

If i’ve got flu, am I supposed to get tested?

Think thats part of the problem.Infection rate may be much higher than thought ergo mortality rate may be lower.

Interesting times in terms os economic effect

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21 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Think thats part of the problem.Infection rate may be much higher than thought ergo mortality rate may be lower.

Interesting times in terms os economic effect

I went to my GP and despite having quite a few of the symptoms, she just told me to take some paracetamol and ibuprofen. I probably don’t have the Covid-19 virus but it does strike me as not taking the threat too seriously. So I think the infection rate is probably much higher, and it’ll be everywhere within weeks.

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It was once said during the aftermath of 9/11 that the airlines collectively lost more money than they had cumulatively made since the Wright Brothers took to the skies.*
 

I wonder whether 2020 will be seen as the year that all corporates lose more money collectively than they have cumulatively made from outsourcing and offshoring?

 

*Could have been GFC. Can’t remember.

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Rental angle. What would happen to office rents when large a proportion of workers is forced to work from home for extended period of time? 

What would happen to places like wework? Surely they would be the first ones to avoid as the networkers are probably really risky? 

 

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10 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Rental angle. What would happen to office rents when large a proportion of workers is forced to work from home for extended period of time? 

What would happen to places like wework? Surely they would be the first ones to avoid as the networkers are probably really risky? 

 

Unless paying very short term for a serviced office or similar then they're on the hook for the rent or lease regardless of whether they turn up and use the place. So the short term reliant serviced office sector such as wework may well struggle. 

At least all those numpty managers that don't like WFH as they don't trust their workers to do enough work won't have much choice and may see it isn't all bad after all and make it more normal, so less commuting and all the issues that causes to both person doing the commute and the environment.

Plenty of potential positives out of what happens with this pandemic.

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6 hours ago, BoSon said:

Unless paying very short term for a serviced office or similar then they're on the hook for the rent or lease regardless of whether they turn up and use the place. So the short term reliant serviced office sector such as wework may well struggle. 

At least all those numpty managers that don't like WFH as they don't trust their workers to do enough work won't have much choice and may see it isn't all bad after all and make it more normal, so less commuting and all the issues that causes to both person doing the commute and the environment.

Plenty of potential positives out of what happens with this pandemic.

The flip side is that larger employers sometimes have a portfolio of properties and staggered regular renewals, could easily take the latest renewal, review and decide to reallocate staff/switch to WFH  one became due.

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19 hours ago, Bkkandrew said:

It was once said during the aftermath of 9/11 that the airlines collectively lost more money than they had cumulatively made since the Wright Brothers took to the skies.*
 

I wonder whether 2020 will be seen as the year that all corporates lose more money collectively than they have cumulatively made from outsourcing and offshoring?

 

*Could have been GFC. Can’t remember.

I've read that collectively, airlines have never made a profit.

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49 minutes ago, jm51 said:

I've read that collectively, airlines have never made a profit.

I think this was the case. However after 9/11 and the GFC, huge amounts of cost were stripped out of the legacy carriers. So I’m not convinced it’s still the case.

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16 hours ago, BoSon said:

Unless paying very short term for a serviced office or similar then they're on the hook for the rent or lease regardless of whether they turn up and use the place. So the short term reliant serviced office sector such as wework may well struggle. 

At least all those numpty managers that don't like WFH as they don't trust their workers to do enough work won't have much choice and may see it isn't all bad after all and make it more normal, so less commuting and all the issues that causes to both person doing the commute and the environment.

Plenty of potential positives out of what happens with this pandemic.

This is TPTB absolute worst nightmare. People stuck indoors, not spending any money. No holidays, new cars, restaurant trips, shopping trips. Printing money or even helicopter money won't make people go to restaurants cinemas. 

 

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TheCountOfNowhere
12 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Cinemas and theatres.

Vue was already shaky.

Tax payer funded posh theatres too. 

Restaurants chains got to collapse too. 

Sporting events/teams maybe. 

Car industry has been teetering too

 

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Surely anything that is already highly levereaged and relies on debt - no cash flow to service the debt, and too indebted to lend more to tide them over during the virus induced low cashflow periods (e.g. travel companies after events being cancelled, high street resteraunts as people stay away)

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TheCountOfNowhere
3 minutes ago, Durabo said:

Surely anything that is already highly levereaged and relies on debt - no cash flow to service the debt, and too indebted to lend more to tide them over during the virus induced low cashflow periods (e.g. travel companies after events being cancelled, high street resteraunts as people stay away)

Anything involving crowds. 

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1 hour ago, Wight Flight said:

Cinemas and theatres.

Vue was already shaky.

I'm doing a week in a show (650 seater) in early April. I expect it may be a little on the sparse side.

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