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Coronavirus Economic Impact Thread


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On 12/03/2020 at 19:26, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Finablr... 80% down... Is that a record!!! 

Finablr is owned connected to that fine upstanding Indian businessman who was CEO of NMC health.

Surely his second company cant be one massive fraud scam too........

https://www.cityam.com/nmc-health-finds-evidence-of-fraud-as-shares-in-sister-firm-finablr-collapse/

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3 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

 

Quote


Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
2h
Replying to 
@GuidoFawkes
* 50% of Americans will be infected (150 million).
* 70% of Germans will be infected (58 million)
* Peak virus in 8 weeks, declining thereafter.
Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
2h
Mortality rate 2%, meaning 3 million Americans will likely die. Most of those will overlap with elderly who would have died in near term. Though them dying earlier will stress health care system.
Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
2h
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity.
Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
2h
Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
2h
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
2h
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. 

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.
Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
2h
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the second half of the year.
Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
2h
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
2h
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalised. It is more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.

 

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Chewing Grass

Well the idiots running the place at work have sent a questionnaire out about working from home. It covered smoke alarms, display screen regulations, working alone from a safety perspective, pat testing and then went on to ask about whether you had VPN, a secure network etc. They forgot that the people that actually do anything need more than MS Office, need power desktops and additional software licences and that the CAE stuff needs configuring by people who know what they are doing, not Indians in Bangalore who struggle with MS stuff never mind things they have never seen before.

My guess is that the management and the others who support them will  idly work from comfort of their exec 4 bed detaches whilst the grunts are left going into a work albeit with more space and less shared air.

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On 13/03/2020 at 20:44, Ponty Mython said:

Good to see another frugal Tesco Mobile user!

B| of course, its DOSBODS after all

20 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Well the idiots running the place at work have sent a questionnaire out about working from home. It covered smoke alarms, display screen regulations, working alone from a safety perspective, pat testing and then went on to ask about whether you had VPN, a secure network etc. They forgot that the people that actually do anything need more than MS Office, need power desktops and additional software licences and that the CAE stuff needs configuring by people who know what they are doing, not Indians in Bangalore who struggle with MS stuff never mind things they have never seen before.

My guess is that the management and the others who support them will  idly work from comfort of their exec 4 bed detaches whilst the grunts are left going into a work albeit with more space and less shared air.

CAE, lol, not even microsoft teams works properly now. Ever since the US logs in at 8am the system went down

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We now had a more than a month of this so..

Telecoms - almost everyone with an office job is going to work from home.  Telecoms should do well.  May even get some new customers and upgrades.  They are still getting smashed with the rest of the market.  A buy?

Supermarkets - doing better than the rest of the market. But surely next set of results will be pretty good for all of them?  Also a buy?

Airlines - the end for them.

Transport - they are screwed.  Even tube is starting to get empty. 

Retail - clothes etc - they are screwed.  Who needs a new handbag if there is nowhere to go.

Pubs / cinemas - screwed and will get worse

Gas / electric - more energy used as everyone is home, working and cooking.  Less energy used by offices.  Are the same energy suppliers used for retail and commercial customers?  Centrica / SSE is in freefall but are they actually going to see a drop in profits?

PMs - wtf? No comment

Oil/gas - lowest price (infl-adjusted for over 20 years).  Before that, in 1973!!!  A blip surely, but which oil companies will still show profits next quarter/year?

FAANGs - this were and are ridiculously overpriced.  I don't see isolation and working from home being specifically against them, just seem really poor value compared to everything else

 

 

 

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To add - life insurance companies, L&G specifically:

Tanking, not a clue why.

Deaths will decrease the liabilities (unless reinsured).

Assets are probably mainly corporate bonds, so no huge losses just yet.

Staff can probably work from home, so not a huge risk of interruption. 

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1 minute ago, Iamcynical said:

Wasn't that John caudwell's business? Funnily enough he's in the media telling the government to print money like there's no tomorrow.. 

Nah he's Phones 4u. Charles Dunstone or whatever his name is, is Carphone. I know someone who worked with him in the early days, said he was an arse. 

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3 minutes ago, spunko said:

Nah he's Phones 4u. Charles Dunstone or whatever his name is, is Carphone. I know someone who worked with him in the early days, said he was an arse. 

Ah right.  I couldn't be bothered to check.  The high street is going to be hollowed out though for sure.

 

Expect maybe for fried chicken shops, that never have any customers.. 

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Caudwell is a strange one. He seems to want to portray himself as a generous benefactor and never misses an opportunity to tell everyone how he pays the most tax. But surely he only paid that once, on the sale of Phones 4u, not every year...

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Bricormortis
13 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

To add - life insurance companies, L&G specifically:

Tanking, not a clue why.

Deaths will decrease the liabilities (unless reinsured).

Assets are probably mainly corporate bonds, so no huge losses just yet.

Staff can probably work from home, so not a huge risk of interruption. 

L and G have had a spat with Lloyds who were MAJOR clients, Lloyds have taken their business elsewhere.

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4 hours ago, spunko said:

Caudwell is a strange one. He seems to want to portray himself as a generous benefactor and never misses an opportunity to tell everyone how he pays the most tax. But surely he only paid that once, on the sale of Phones 4u, not every year...

Have you seen the channel 4 doc about him building the UK's most expensive private house?

He says he is doing it so he can "raise more money for the sick kiddies" by throwing A list celebrity fundraisers in his new top tier ballroom (part of the house).

He spent 625m on the house. Could have helped at least a few sick kiddies for that...

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3 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Have you seen the channel 4 doc about him building the UK's most expensive private house?

He says he is doing it so he can "raise more money for the sick kiddies" by throwing A list celebrity fundraisers in his new top tier ballroom (part of the house).

He spent 625m on the house. Could have helped at least a few sick kiddies for that...

Typical self serving, smooth talking businessman = full of shit.

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So far America has

- Confirmed helicopter money

- Delayed tax payments by 90 days and suspended interest and penalties

- Suspended collection of student and medical debt

- Repo operations of billions 

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10 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

L and G have had a spat with Lloyds who were MAJOR clients, Lloyds have taken their business elsewhere.

what kind of business?  I can't see this affecting the annuities they already hold

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Bricormortis
10 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

what kind of business?  I can't see this affecting the annuities they already hold

Sorry I have googled for details and cant come up with any, did read about this online a few days ago.

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