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Daily Coronapocalypse Statistics


TheBlueCat
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There are a few people doing this so let's have a topic for it. A few top 5s after the release of today's WHO situation report:

new cases - top 5
-----------------
Italy 2547
Iran 1289
Spain 1266
France 780
Germany 693

new cases per 100K people - top 5
---------------------------------
Cruise Ships 26.53
San Marino 8.86
Estonia 4.98
Norway 4.85
Italy 4.21

new deaths - top 5
------------------
Italy 252
Iran 85
Spain 36
France 18
China 13

new deaths per 100K people - top 5
----------------------------------
Italy 0.42
Luxembourg 0.16
Iran 0.10
Spain 0.08
Albania 0.03

Some better news for Italy though, looks like the lockdown is working a bit quicker than I expected. This is new cases per day:

999087216_Screenshotfrom2020-03-1417-44-33.png.a23260b5da823a611f229b960ddb19e3.png

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UK makes its first entry into one of the top 5 categories:

new cases - top 5
-----------------
Italy 3497
Spain 1522
Iran 1365
France 829
Germany 733

new cases per 100K people - top 5
---------------------------------
San Marino 76.79
Iceland 22.71
Faroe Islands 12.33
Italy 5.78
Brunei Darussalam 3.46

new deaths - top 5
------------------
Italy 173
Iran 94
Spain 16
France 12
United Kingdom 11

new deaths per 100K people - top 5
----------------------------------
San Marino 8.86
Italy 0.29
Iran 0.11
Switzerland 0.06
Spain 0.03

And the drop in new cases from Italy 2 days back seems to have been a one-off:

156921717_Screenshotfrom2020-03-1610-44-13.png.f3f877691bee25fac9c6293daa07d3e7.png

UK is similarly exponential still:

1476206270_Screenshotfrom2020-03-1610-46-17.png.344fcd79befb9f2c9e9bbdc7f9e3ecf9.png

With Canada very close behind when scaled for population size:

1388603155_Screenshotfrom2020-03-1610-47-58.png.4b1571ed36f47443220c5f75d170807e.png

 

Screenshot from 2020-03-16 10-46-17.png

Edited by TheBlueCat
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Added rise/fall data:

new cases - top 5
-----------------
Italy 3497 (rank unchanged)
Spain 1522 (rank up 1)
Iran 1365 (rank down 1)
France 829 (rank unchanged)
Germany 733 (rank unchanged)

new cases per 100K people - top 5
---------------------------------
San Marino 76.79 (rank up 1)
Iceland 22.71 (rank up 117)
Faroe Islands 12.33 (rank up 11)
Italy 5.78 (rank up 1)
Brunei Darussalam 3.46 (rank up 4)

new deaths - top 5
------------------
Italy 173 (rank unchanged)
Iran 94 (rank unchanged)
Spain 16 (rank unchanged)
France 12 (rank unchanged)
United Kingdom 11 (rank up 4)

new deaths per 100K people - top 5
----------------------------------
San Marino 8.86 (rank up 124)
Italy 0.29 (rank down 1)
Iran 0.11 (rank unchanged)
Switzerland 0.06 (rank up 41)
Spain 0.03 (rank down 1)

 

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Today's numbers are in, the UK is nudged back out of the top 5 for new deaths:

new cases - top 5
-----------------
Italy 3590 (rank unchanged)
Iran 2262 (rank up 1)
Spain 2000 (rank down 1)
Germany 1043 (rank up 1)
France 911 (rank down 1)

new cases per 100K people - top 5
---------------------------------
Cruise Ships 397.88 (rank up 100)
Saint Barthélemy 20.31 (rank up 93)
Monaco 17.97 (rank up 116)
Switzerland 9.79 (rank up 5)
Estonia 9.50 (rank up 100)

new deaths - top 5
------------------
Italy 368 (rank unchanged)
Iran 245 (rank unchanged)
Spain 152 (rank unchanged)
France 36 (rank unchanged)
China 14 (rank up 1)

new deaths per 100K people - top 5
----------------------------------
Cayman Islands 1.54 (rank up 83)
Italy 0.61 (rank unchanged)
Spain 0.33 (rank up 2)
Iran 0.30 (rank down 1)
Bahrain 0.06 (rank up 29)

Some new stats for total rather than just daily new cases. Cruise ships are basically fucking lethal:

total cases - top 5
-------------------
China 81077 (rank unchanged)
Italy 24747 (rank unchanged)
Iran 14991 (rank unchanged)
Republic of Korea 8236 (rank unchanged)
Spain 7753 (rank unchanged)

total cases per 100K people - top 5
-----------------------------------
Cruise Ships 18885.94 (rank unchanged)
San Marino 271.71 (rank unchanged)
Vatican City 125.16 (rank unchanged)
Italy 40.87 (rank up 1)
Iceland 40.70 (rank down 1)

total deaths - top 5
--------------------
China 3218 (rank unchanged)
Italy 1809 (rank unchanged)
Iran 853 (rank unchanged)
Spain 288 (rank unchanged)
France 127 (rank unchanged)

total deaths per 100K people - top 5
------------------------------------
Cruise Ships 185.68 (rank unchanged)
San Marino 14.77 (rank unchanged)
Italy 2.99 (rank unchanged)
Cayman Islands 1.54 (rank up 88)
Iran 1.03 (rank down 1)


Some possibly better news from Italy. New daily case rates may be flattening out. It's been 7 days since their lockdown started:1656303321_Screenshotfrom2020-03-1619-24-10.png.c65ef36a991030c506a21ef2bb9e003e.png

 

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Here's the scores on the doors for the 17th. The USA is up 144 places in the new cases ranking and up 137 on new deaths. Late to the party but making up for lost time:

new cases - top 5
-----------------
Italy 3233 (rank unchanged)
United States of America 1825 (rank up 144)
Spain 1438 (rank unchanged)
France 1193 (rank up 1)
Germany 1174 (rank down 1)

new cases per 100K people - top 5
---------------------------------
Faroe Islands 73.96 (rank up 8)
San Marino 29.53 (rank up 139)
Iceland 17.99 (rank up 118)
Andorra 15.56 (rank up 92)
Luxembourg 6.98 (rank up 121)

new deaths - top 5
------------------
Italy 694 (rank unchanged)
Spain 21 (rank up 1)
France 21 (rank up 1)
United Kingdom 20 (rank up 2)
United States of America 17 (rank up 137)

new deaths per 100K people - top 5
----------------------------------
San Marino 11.81 (rank up 131)
Italy 1.15 (rank unchanged)
Denmark 0.05 (rank up 10)
Spain 0.04 (rank down 1)
Norway 0.04 (rank up 103)

 

In the total cases rankings, much less change:

total cases - top 5
-------------------
China 81116 (rank unchanged)
Italy 27980 (rank unchanged)
Iran 14991 (rank unchanged)
Spain 9191 (rank up 1)
Republic of Korea 8320 (rank down 1)

total cases per 100K people - top 5
-----------------------------------
Cruise Ships 18885.94 (rank unchanged)
San Marino 301.24 (rank unchanged)
Vatican City 125.16 (rank unchanged)
Faroe Islands 96.55 (rank up 5)
Iceland 58.70 (rank unchanged)

total deaths - top 5
--------------------
China 3231 (rank unchanged)
Italy 2503 (rank unchanged)
Iran 853 (rank unchanged)
Spain 309 (rank unchanged)
France 148 (rank unchanged)

total deaths per 100K people - top 5
------------------------------------
Cruise Ships 185.68 (rank unchanged)
San Marino 26.58 (rank unchanged)
Italy 4.13 (rank unchanged)
Cayman Islands 1.54 (rank unchanged)
Iran 1.03 (rank unchanged)

One positive, looks like Italy is stabilising in terms of new cases:

1397671803_Screenshotfrom2020-03-1720-17-17.thumb.png.900270704faa1c86ea55f47ef1edb15f.png

 

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I've been following this site since Liverpool were at home to that Spanish team.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

Also following Manchester as a sort of control group. I'm curious to see if there is a spike because of the footy match and how many days later it happens.

One the day of the match, Liverpool was at 8 cases and Manchester either 8 or 9, I forget.

Liverpool went down to 6, then up to 8(?). Manchester similar. Currently showing Manchester at 14 and Liverpool at 11.

They've been playing with the numbers imo. Number of cases go down but nothing to say if that is due to recovery or death. Liverpool could be deadlier and the deceased are no longer classed as a case. Or Liverpool could have a higher rate of recovery than others. No way to know from that site.

The site is starting to lag further behind on reporting total/new deaths compared to world sites.

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14 minutes ago, jm51 said:

I've been following this site since Liverpool were at home to that Spanish team.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

Also following Manchester as a sort of control group. I'm curious to see if there is a spike because of the footy match and how many days later it happens.

One the day of the match, Liverpool was at 8 cases and Manchester either 8 or 9, I forget.

Liverpool went down to 6, then up to 8(?). Manchester similar. Currently showing Manchester at 14 and Liverpool at 11.

They've been playing with the numbers imo. Number of cases go down but nothing to say if that is due to recovery or death. Liverpool could be deadlier and the deceased are no longer classed as a case. Or Liverpool could have a higher rate of recovery than others. No way to know from that site.

The site is starting to lag further behind on reporting total/new deaths compared to world sites.

It's only been a week - they're probably only just developing symptoms now and won't be bad enough to need hospital care for another week or more I'd have thought.

Edited by This Time
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That's my opinion too. If there is to be a spike because of the match, the longer it takes to show, the more 'oh fuck' the reality.

Things like the Cheltenham festival draw people from all over. Difficult to see a related spike.

Am I cynical to think that allowing the match was to use footy fans as guinea pigs to learn the median incubation period?

In SJW world, that is heartless. In the real world, such unemotional decisions could save a lot more lives further down the line. No hang wringers were given responsibility during WW2.  

 

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43 minutes ago, feed said:

Are new cases, new hospitalized cases? 

No, all confirmed cases, not just the ones bad enough to need hospital treatment.

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Just now, TheBlueCat said:

No, all confirmed cases, not just the ones bad enough to need hospital treatment.

He's asking if Italy are bothering to test anyone who's not bad enough to vbe in a hospital. I'm not sure what their policy is.

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Here, it's 'We don't want to know, so stay away and stfu.'

The main stat is going to be the ratio of recovered to dead. That will tell us what % of the very sick will croak and what their ages are. We won't know that until the 1st wave has passed through a nation. 

 

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2 minutes ago, This Time said:

He's asking if Italy are bothering to test anyone who's not bad enough to vbe in a hospital. I'm not sure what their policy is.

I think they must be doing a fair bit of testing otherwise the deaths as a proportion of cases figure would be even higher than it is.

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7 minutes ago, This Time said:

He's asking if Italy are bothering to test anyone who's not bad enough to vbe in a hospital. I'm not sure what their policy is.

Not just Italy.  It's difficult to compare regions if everyone has a different approach. 

 

3 minutes ago, jm51 said:

The main stat is going to be the ratio of recovered to dead. That will tell us what % of the very sick will croak and what their ages are. We won't know that until the 1st wave has passed through a nation. 

 

Agree.  Testing seems to be so low, doesn't seem to be much value in deaths vs confirmed cases now.  

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52 minutes ago, feed said:

Not just Italy.  It's difficult to compare regions if everyone has a different approach. 

 

Agree.  Testing seems to be so low, doesn't seem to be much value in deaths vs confirmed cases now.  

I'll add a 5 day moving average % increase highest/lowest section to the next set of numbers (for total deaths and total cases), that will correct somewhat for different levels of testing. And should show which countries are past the worst - i.e. large decreases in new cases along with a large increase in deaths would be the first sign.

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A gap and catch-up here which basically includes two days numbers as the WHO changed their reporting time to midnight CET:

new cases - top 5
-----------------
Italy 7733 (rank up 77)
Spain 4525 (rank up 48)
United States of America 3584 (rank up 146)
France 2470 (rank up 50)
Iran 2370 (rank up 71)

new cases per 100K people - top 5
---------------------------------
Liechtenstein 47.34 (rank up 89)
Andorra 32.41 (rank unchanged)
Faroe Islands 22.60 (rank up 50)
Luxembourg 20.95 (rank up 90)
San Marino 20.67 (rank up 133)

new deaths - top 5
------------------
Italy 475 (rank up 78)
Spain 289 (rank up 51)
Iran 282 (rank up 74)
France 96 (rank up 53)
United Kingdom 48 (rank up 54)

new deaths per 100K people - top 5
----------------------------------
San Marino 14.77 (rank up 137)
Guam 1.20 (rank up 67)
Italy 0.78 (rank up 76)
Spain 0.62 (rank up 49)
Iran 0.34 (rank up 72)

Italy is close to overtaking China for total deaths (probably did so during today at a guess):

total cases - top 5
-------------------
China 81174 (rank unchanged)
Italy 35713 (rank unchanged)
Iran 17361 (rank unchanged)
Spain 13716 (rank unchanged)
France 9043 (rank up 1)

total cases per 100K people - top 5
-----------------------------------
Cruise Ships 18885.94 (rank unchanged)
San Marino 321.91 (rank unchanged)
Vatican City 125.16 (rank unchanged)
Faroe Islands 119.15 (rank unchanged)
Iceland 73.74 (rank unchanged)

total deaths - top 5
--------------------
China 3242 (rank unchanged)
Italy 2978 (rank unchanged)
Iran 1135 (rank unchanged)
Spain 598 (rank unchanged)
France 244 (rank unchanged)

total deaths per 100K people - top 5
------------------------------------
Cruise Ships 185.68 (rank unchanged)
San Marino 41.35 (rank unchanged)
Italy 4.92 (rank unchanged)
Cayman Islands 1.54 (rank unchanged)
Iran 1.37 (rank unchanged)

 

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A new table today. Countries with the largest and smallest average daily % increase in new cases over the last 10 days (average of the second derivative of total cases for the maths spods). This is an attempt to highlight the ones with the most explosive growth and the ones that have got it best under control in terms of reduced growth rate. Note that this is about rate of change not absolute numbers. For example, if Country X had:

day 1: 1000 new cases

day 2: 2000 new cases

That would produce a daily rise of +100% in new cases, even if total cases were already 1 million.

Similarly:

day 1: 2000 new cases

day 2: 1000 new cases

That would produce a daily rise of -50% (i.e. a fall of 50%) in new cases, regardless of the total infected. Also note that a rise from 0 new cases to any other number is ignored because it's an infinite % increase and not meaningful. Note again that this is about rate of change of the new infection numbers. A country that has had 1000 new case a day consistently will not appear in this table whereas one that's gone 1,2,4,8,16,32,64 new cases per day will. The lower numbers are kind of unstable though so don't say very much useful.

average daily % increase in total cases last 10 days top 5
(excluded countries with less than 50 cases
------------------------------------------------0---------
Brazil 300% (rank unchanged)
Ireland 96% (rank up 1)
Peru 74% (rank up 1)
Iran 74% (rank down 2)
Algeria 62% (rank unchanged)

average daily % increase in total cases last 10 days bottom 5
(excluded countries with less than 50 cases
-------------------------------------------------------------
Czechia -1082% (rank unchanged)
Russian Federation -600% (rank unchanged)
Austria -201% (rank unchanged)
Colombia -169% (rank unchanged)
Norway -155% (rank up 1)

Looking at the total cases graph for Brazil does show it in the first stages of exponential growth:

316801702_Screenshotfrom2020-03-2112-12-49.png.6d877784fb4a400518cba7401c63c084.png

And Norway does look to be stabilizing (a bit):

89182317_Screenshotfrom2020-03-2112-15-06.png.98006b6591f0b7de6c90bffb3777bf7a.png

 

 

In terms of new cases and deaths, Italy still leads the pack:

new cases - top 5
-----------------
Italy 5322 (rank unchanged)
Spain 3431 (rank unchanged)
United States of America 3355 (rank unchanged)
Germany 2801 (rank up 2)
France 1834 (rank down 1)

new cases per 100K people - top 5
---------------------------------
San Marino 50.21 (rank up 4)
Andorra 46.67 (rank unchanged)
Faroe Islands 28.76 (rank unchanged)
Iceland 23.60 (rank up 3)
Luxembourg 21.93 (rank down 1)

new deaths - top 5
------------------
Italy 429 (rank unchanged)
Spain 169 (rank unchanged)
Iran 149 (rank unchanged)
France 128 (rank unchanged)
United States of America 50 (rank up 1)

new deaths per 100K people - top 5
----------------------------------
Italy 0.71 (rank up 2)
Spain 0.36 (rank up 2)
Luxembourg 0.32 (rank up 4)
France 0.20 (rank up 4)
Iran 0.18 (rank unchanged)

Not much change in the total deaths tables other than Italy taking top spot from China:

total cases - top 5
-------------------
China 81300 (rank unchanged)
Italy 41035 (rank unchanged)
Iran 18407 (rank unchanged)
Spain 17147 (rank unchanged)
Germany 10999 (rank up 2)

total cases per 100K people - top 5
-----------------------------------
Cruise Ships 18885.94 (rank unchanged)
San Marino 372.12 (rank unchanged)
Faroe Islands 147.91 (rank up 1)
Vatican City 125.16 (rank down 1)
Iceland 97.34 (rank unchanged)

total deaths - top 5
--------------------
Italy 3407 (rank up 1)
China 3253 (rank down 1)
Iran 1284 (rank unchanged)
Spain 767 (rank unchanged)
France 372 (rank unchanged)

total deaths per 100K people - top 5
------------------------------------
Cruise Ships 185.68 (rank unchanged)
San Marino 41.35 (rank unchanged)
Italy 5.63 (rank unchanged)
Spain 1.64 (rank up 2)
Iran 1.55 (rank unchanged)


 

 

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WHO numbers out early today...

average daily % increase in total cases last 10 days top 5
(excluded countries with less than 50 cases
----------------------------------------------------------
Brazil 361% (rank unchanged)
Lithuania 259% (rank up 34)
Pakistan 247% (rank up 3)
Ireland 105% (rank down 2)
Iran 73% (rank down 1)

average daily % increase in total cases last 10 days bottom 5
(excluded countries with less than 50 cases
-------------------------------------------------------------
Czechia -1234% (rank unchanged)
Russian Federation -471% (rank unchanged)
Serbia -288% (rank up 44)
Austria -229% (rank down 1)
Colombia -193% (rank down 1)

Germany now top of the list for new cases:

new cases - top 5
-----------------
Germany 7324 (rank up 3)
Italy 5986 (rank down 1)
United States of America 4777 (rank unchanged)
Spain 2833 (rank down 2)
France 1598 (rank unchanged)

new cases per 100K people - top 5
---------------------------------
San Marino 73.83 (rank unchanged)
Liechtenstein 23.67 (rank up 152)
Iceland 23.30 (rank up 1)
Luxembourg 22.57 (rank up 1)
Faroe Islands 16.43 (rank down 2)

new deaths - top 5
------------------
Italy 625 (rank unchanged)
Spain 235 (rank unchanged)
Iran 149 (rank unchanged)
France 78 (rank unchanged)
United States of America 51 (rank unchanged)

new deaths per 100K people - top 5
----------------------------------
Italy 1.03 (rank unchanged)
Spain 0.50 (rank unchanged)
Iceland 0.29 (rank up 90)
Belgium 0.20 (rank up 41)
Iran 0.18 (rank unchanged)

Minimal changes in the total case list:

total cases - top 5
-------------------
China 81416 (rank unchanged)
Italy 47021 (rank unchanged)
Spain 19980 (rank up 1)
Iran 19644 (rank down 1)
Germany 18323 (rank unchanged)

total cases per 100K people - top 5
-----------------------------------
Cruise Ships 18885.94 (rank unchanged)
San Marino 445.95 (rank unchanged)
Faroe Islands 164.35 (rank unchanged)
Vatican City 125.16 (rank unchanged)
Iceland 120.64 (rank unchanged)

total deaths - top 5
--------------------
Italy 4032 (rank unchanged)
China 3261 (rank unchanged)
Iran 1433 (rank unchanged)
Spain 1002 (rank unchanged)
France 450 (rank unchanged)

total deaths per 100K people - top 5
------------------------------------
Cruise Ships 185.68 (rank unchanged)
San Marino 41.35 (rank unchanged)
Italy 6.66 (rank unchanged)
Spain 2.14 (rank unchanged)
Iran 1.73 (rank unchanged)

Italy is still looking bleak. They've been in lock down for 2 weeks but the daily increase is still rising (ignore the spike, that was the WHO changing their reporting time window):

2105481833_Screenshotfrom2020-03-2117-32-36.thumb.png.773b8f663bfa8cde8d9469b86b662f01.png

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TheBlueCat said:

Italy is still looking bleak. They've been in lock down for 2 weeks but the daily increase is still rising (ignore the spike, that was the WHO changing their reporting time window):

Seems to be a lot of evidence coming out embedded in the care homes, hence death count/age group.. If so cannot measure success of lockdown against ongoing transmission within those homes, look at the plague ship, locked up for weeks and the new cases were spread across those many weeks. Italians would need to split out those numbers - or lot at onward transmission numbers in other areas to gauge success of lockdowns.

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11 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Seems to be a lot of evidence coming out embedded in the care homes, hence death count/age group.. If so cannot measure success of lockdown against ongoing transmission within those homes, look at the plague ship, locked up for weeks and the new cases were spread across those many weeks. Italians would need to split out those numbers - or lot at onward transmission numbers in other areas to gauge success of lockdowns.

Do they have a disproportionate number of people in care homes (as well as a disproportionate number of old people as is well documented) do you know? I can’t find any good data on that - would be interesting to find a comparator too (e.g. Florida?).

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16 minutes ago, TheBlueCat said:

Do they have a disproportionate number of people in care homes (as well as a disproportionate number of old people as is well documented) do you know? I can’t find any good data on that - would be interesting to find a comparator too (e.g. Florida?).

Certainly disproportionate number of elderly in Italy, assume a lot must be in care.

Talking of Florida......

https://healthweather.us

The U.S. Health Weather Map is a visualization of seasonal illness linked to fever - specifically influenza-like illness. The aggregate, anonymized data visualized here is a product of Kinsa’s network of Smart Thermometers and the accompanying mobile applications. Kinsa is providing this map and associated charts as a public service.

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