Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Housebuilders and coronavirus


spunko

Where do you see house prices in April 2021 compared to now?  

63 members have voted

You do not have permission to vote in this poll, or see the poll results. Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

480.09 GBX +32.29 (7.21%)

 

It' defies reality

It doesn't really, Rightmove are hugely profitable, about 50% of their earnings are profit so even if they see a nosedive of sales their profits will still be fairly strong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 84
  • Created
  • Last Reply
TheCountOfNowhere
1 hour ago, spunko said:

It doesn't really, Rightmove are hugely profitable, about 50% of their earnings are profit so even if they see a nosedive of sales their profits will still be fairly strong.

Yet the housing market had closed 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Logistics rather than a target 

It shows lack of confidence at least. I don't think the banks are expecting -40% falls, but it's a start.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TheCountOfNowhere
51 minutes ago, spunko said:

It shows lack of confidence at least. I don't think the banks are expecting -40% falls, but it's a start.

They're expecting more... That's why they keep stealing out cash

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TheCountOfNowhere

Intererestingly 

 

Barratt Developments Plc
LON: BDEV
Follow
 

444.60 GBX −33.50 (7.01%)

 

is now almost half the price of the 2007/2008 bubble peak !!!

 

Taylor Wimpey is about 1/6th of the 2008 peaks.

That suggests that persimmon, which is around 30% up on the 2008 peak, has some way to fall.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is last chance saloon for a house price crash. I put down 5% on the poll. I'd like to see 50%+. After everything we've seen it is clear the TBTP will make their last bastion house prices; they will send in the heavy artillery and fire at will if there is so much as a sniff of a sustained drop. This economic recession/depression we're walking into it will only be worth it IMO if house prices drop. If everything else goes to s**t and yet there are still £1M ex-council houses being exchanged in London then it really is game over. I'd like to say they can't stop what is coming, the fundamentals scream that but we're a million miles from reality already, waiting for the new market prop/gimmick to be announced when it starts getting hairy (mortgage holidays being just the warm up act).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

This is last chance saloon for a house price crash. I put down 5% on the poll. I'd like to see 50%+. After everything we've seen it is clear the TBTP will make their last bastion house prices; they will send in the heavy artillery and fire at will if there is so much as a sniff of a sustained drop. This economic recession/depression we're walking into it will only be worth it IMO if house prices drop. If everything else goes to s**t and yet there are still £1M ex-council houses being exchanged in London then it really is game over. I'd like to say they can't stop what is coming, the fundamentals scream that but we're a million miles from reality already, waiting for the new market prop/gimmick to be announced when it starts getting hairy (mortgage holidays being just the warm up act).

 

The only saving hope is the demand for dollars will have to go into industry/infrastructure, not housing.

So the money tap hasn't been turned off, but the hose is pointing elsewhere

Given my patchy understanding of these thing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy

I'm disappointed that they shut the housing market down on Friday and suggested people stopped completions. With limitations on travel, local people in tourists spots had a chance of a cheeky or very cheeky offer being accepted due to owners needing some money and a lack of competition from non local buyers being able to travel to view. I thought there could be a good chance that holiday let owners might sell due to a lack of income this summer. These would typically be empty properties, so not much of a coronavirus issue (viewer wears gloves) if agents stayed outside the property. If the housing market opens at the same time as people can travel freely again there's more competition in tourist spots and holiday let income will be rolling in again.

I think this is largely why they have closed the market down, to "save" it. If they fire a starting pistol overnight there could be more people able to buy in places that might interest me. I think the less people able to buy is better for lower prices.

Shutting down completions could cause chaos with the rental market. People buying from rentals could have given notice to leave and a landlord could have accepted a new tenant.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'm disappointed that they shut the housing market down on Friday and suggested people stopped completions. With limitations on travel, local people in tourists spots had a chance of a cheeky or very cheeky offer being accepted due to owners needing some money and a lack of competition from non local buyers being able to travel to view. I thought there could be a good chance that holiday let owners might sell due to a lack of income this summer. These would typically be empty properties, so not much of a coronavirus issue (viewer wears gloves) if agents stayed outside the property. If the housing market opens at the same time as people can travel freely again there's more competition in tourist spots and holiday let income will be rolling in again.

I think this is largely why they have closed the market down, to "save" it. If they fire a starting pistol overnight there could be more people able to buy in places that might interest me. I think the less people able to buy is better for lower prices.

Shutting down completions could cause chaos with the rental market. People buying from rentals could have given notice to leave and a landlord could have accepted a new tenant.

 

I reckon it goes the other way. Historically low number of properties coming to market for the past few years hasn't dampened prices, sadly. So forcing the market to close i.e. effectively bringing sales to zero, is the only way to protect it (in their eyes).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
44 minutes ago, spunko said:

I reckon it goes the other way. Historically low number of properties coming to market for the past few years hasn't dampened prices, sadly. So forcing the market to close i.e. effectively bringing sales to zero, is the only way to protect it (in their eyes).

I wasn't suggesting a low number of properties coming to market. I wanted lots of properties coming to market in tourist areas from holiday let owners panic selling due to financial problems and no holiday let income. With only local people near enough to buy because tourists and visitors aren't currently allowed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nothing can save this market, banks are pulling lending and we will have a lot of unemployment and uncertainty.

BTL will go under, housbuilders will go under or just about cling on.

And after spending 0.5T it will be hard to scrape more money for another prop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TheCountOfNowhere
1 hour ago, No One said:

Nothing can save this market, banks are pulling lending and we will have a lot of unemployment and uncertainty.

BTL will go under, housbuilders will go under or just about cling on.

And after spending 0.5T it will be hard to scrape more money for another prop.

UK credit rating down graded 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

UK credit rating down graded 

Will that make mortgages more expensive regardless of any other circumstances?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TheCountOfNowhere
8 minutes ago, Loki said:

Will that make mortgages more expensive regardless of any other circumstances?

If carney is pulling the strings in no 11 i doubt it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza

 

On 18/03/2020 at 04:58, Royston said:

Taken from HPC, from a contributor that was apparently sent this by an Estate Agent...

Good Aftermoon,

Like many businesses across the UK, we are closely monitoring the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and following the advice provided by UK health authorities.

 All of our offices are open as normal and, if you have an appointment booked with us in the near future, we look forward to seeing you then.

 Activity levels remain high and with the recent reduction in interest rates there is arguably no better time than now to be buying property.

 

  •  

ALmsot surreal.Bricks n mortr retial EA's are toast here.they can't and won't recover.Much like a lot of high st retial has gone online,trips in to them will be less and less.A lot were barely breaking even as it was.

On 18/03/2020 at 06:45, Ash4781b said:

The government will support the housebuilders. I’m guessing they’ll ‘temporarily’ nationalise them. They’ll pay a high price. The companies will still mothball sites and gov will talk about building hospitals etc. In reality the companies will just scale workforce back and hoard land.

Not so sure Ash,I think they'll be having problems bailing the general public out from their incompetence over Covid testing(much will come out and it won't look good).I think bailing the builders will be one of the last things on their minds.

On 20/03/2020 at 10:07, BoSon said:

Rightmove will be shitting themselves if the economy is in effect frozen for more than a few months. Talk of potentially into next year (and that's only if a vaccine works) before 'normal' returns will surely have people sat at home rent/mortgage free (if they can't pay) with no desire to move so estate agents will pull the rightmove cost as they struggle to survive

There may be not much activity other than probate sales of all those that croak it from the virus. If credit crunch issues persist then people won't be able to get a mortgage if they wanted to move.

Those thinking Brexit was causing too much limbo haven't seen anything yet...

On the other hand it may all blow over by June.

Rightmove charges around £1500pcm per physical branch or where there isn't a physical branch eg Purple Bricks,they approxiamte an area and then over charge them.Profitable yes,wide open to physical branch failures yes.They wont go bust but their profits are going to drop when countriwde/foxtons et al hit the wall.

On 26/03/2020 at 22:01, spunko said:

Quite a game changer  by some measure.I wonder if HTB will be scrapped or reined in to help fund their other direct bail outs of the those struggling

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza
11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

UK credit rating down graded 

I think we're heading for an inflationary spell.mortgage rate's going up jsut not as much as deposits.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, No One said:

Nothing can save this market, banks are pulling lending and we will have a lot of unemployment and uncertainty.

BTL will go under, housbuilders will go under or just about cling on.

And after spending 0.5T it will be hard to scrape more money for another prop.

Edit: what about the BTL cashflow? Presumably if they are mortgaged they also could be on a mortgage holiday ? If they are not mortgaged are they stuffed ?

edit- deleted rent holidays 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...