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Housebuilders and coronavirus

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

Where do you see house prices in April 2021 compared to now?  

63 members have voted

You do not have permission to vote in this poll, or see the poll results. Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'm disappointed that they shut the housing market down on Friday and suggested people stopped completions. With limitations on travel, local people in tourists spots had a chance of a cheeky or very cheeky offer being accepted due to owners needing some money and a lack of competition from non local buyers being able to travel to view. I thought there could be a good chance that holiday let owners might sell due to a lack of income this summer. These would typically be empty properties, so not much of a coronavirus issue (viewer wears gloves) if agents stayed outside the property. If the housing market opens at the same time as people can travel freely again there's more competition in tourist spots and holiday let income will be rolling in again.

I think this is largely why they have closed the market down, to "save" it. If they fire a starting pistol overnight there could be more people able to buy in places that might interest me. I think the less people able to buy is better for lower prices.

Shutting down completions could cause chaos with the rental market. People buying from rentals could have given notice to leave and a landlord could have accepted a new tenant.

 

you cant be evicted.

I think ttransactiosn will get hammered,and some interesting deals could be available as probates.

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Democorruptcy

Democorruptcy

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

you cant be evicted.

I think ttransactiosn will get hammered,and some interesting deals could be available as probates.

I think you were missing my point there. In this scenario you highlighted:

People buying from rentals could have given notice to leave and a landlord could have accepted a new tenant.

Who cannot be evicted there? The original tenant who has given notice themselves, or the new tenant who has just signed a lease. There could have been people ready to move out Friday on completion and a new tenant who has ordered a removal van to move in the same day. The tenant buying and leaving isn't being evicted, they were leaving by choice but now cannot move into the purchase. There is bound to be some problems in chains. It's like the TPTB think the 'for sale' and rental markets are separate entities, they aren't they overlap.

 

 

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Democorruptcy

Democorruptcy

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

So with BTL tenants are in rent holidays but what about the BTL cashflow? Presumably if they are mortgaged they also could be on a mortgage holiday ? If they are not mortgaged are they stuffed ?

Can't landlords insure against non payment of rent? Would that apply now?

11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

If carney is pulling the strings in no 11 i doubt it

Carney? He's gone.

It's Andrew Bailey now.

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I think you were missing my point there. In this scenario you highlighted:

People buying from rentals could have given notice to leave and a landlord could have accepted a new tenant.

Who cannot be evicted there? The original tenant who has given notice themselves, or the new tenant who has just signed a lease. There could have been people ready to move out Friday on completion and a new tenant who has ordered a removal van to move in the same day. The tenant buying and leaving isn't being evicted, they were leaving by choice but now cannot move into the purchase. There is bound to be some problems in chains. It's like the TPTB think the 'for sale' and rental markets are separate entities, they aren't they overlap.

 

 

doesn't matter legally.possession is 9/10ths of the law here.Eviction can take up to 6 months if you fail to leave on your due date.

so current tenant would serve ntoice they couldn't make the move in tiem and stay in situ.New tenant would jsut have to stay where they were.

I'd imagine the breacjh would well be understood well before anyone puts stuff into the moving wagon and so all will stay put and leave the courts to settle the financials however they see fit.Situation is unprecednetd but courts have had right to evict taken away even for non payment.LL's could end up with some losses here given most are well heeled and have some equity backing them up compared to a lot of tenants who are three meals from taking to the streets.

Tories have been in power pretty much for 400 years.They are the vampire squid and will side with their interests and riots trump LL's feeling the pinch.

Watch Italy,clear signs of social break down in the poorer south, whilst I've stood back in amazement at how the Tories have consistently and successfully bailed the 1%,they also know when it's time to rein in the slack

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Just reading through. I’ve edited my post. 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/government-support-available-for-landlords-and-renters-reflecting-the-current-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak

Cheers Ash,so bailing the LL's with a mortgage holiday.However,this is still much mroe of a disaster for the LL than the tenant.I suspect a lot will get away without paying the full rent whereas the LL will still be laible for the full mortgage

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Democorruptcy

Democorruptcy

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

doesn't matter legally.possession is 9/10ths of the law here.Eviction can take up to 6 months if you fail to leave on your due date.

so current tenant would serve ntoice they couldn't make the move in tiem and stay in situ.New tenant would jsut have to stay where they were.

I'd imagine the breacjh would well be understood well before anyone puts stuff into the moving wagon and so all will stay put and leave the courts to settle the financials however they see fit.Situation is unprecednetd but courts have had right to evict taken away even for non payment.LL's could end up with some losses here given most are well heeled and have some equity backing them up compared to a lot of tenants who are three meals from taking to the streets.

Tories have been in power pretty much for 400 years.They are the vampire squid and will side with their interests and riots trump LL's feeling the pinch.

Watch Italy,clear signs of social break down in the poorer south, whilst I've stood back in amazement at how the Tories have consistently and successfully bailed the 1%,they also know when it's time to rein in the slack

What if the new tenant cannot stay where they are? What if the house they were living in completed early Friday? There's no point in labouring the point. 

Re the "market" stopping for coronavirus, there will young people still working, living with older parents more susceptible to the virus, it's in their interests to be able to move out.

I'd prefer viewings to be allowed of empty properties at least and let supply/demand decide on the price. I think demand would currently be very low so supply would tick up. Particularly in holiday spots where there aren't any tourists now and no holiday let income. I see the virus travel restrictions as a chance for locals to prise properties out of the hands of some second home/holiday let owners, at a decent discount.

I'd just prefer the governbankment to stop interfering in the housing "market" and let it actually be a market again.

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gibbon

gibbon

Posted
Posted
On 27/03/2020 at 20:07, SillyBilly said:

This is last chance saloon for a house price crash. I put down 5% on the poll. I'd like to see 50%+. After everything we've seen it is clear the TBTP will make their last bastion house prices; they will send in the heavy artillery and fire at will if there is so much as a sniff of a sustained drop. This economic recession/depression we're walking into it will only be worth it IMO if house prices drop. If everything else goes to s**t and yet there are still £1M ex-council houses being exchanged in London then it really is game over. I'd like to say they can't stop what is coming, the fundamentals scream that but we're a million miles from reality already, waiting for the new market prop/gimmick to be announced when it starts getting hairy (mortgage holidays being just the warm up act).

 

Wouldn't surprise me if house prices actually increased. Govt will bring in new HTB, covering 90% of the loan. 

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No One

No One

Posted
Posted
On 28/03/2020 at 15:12, Democorruptcy said:

I'm disappointed that they shut the housing market down on Friday and suggested people stopped completions. With limitations on travel, local people in tourists spots had a chance of a cheeky or very cheeky offer being accepted due to owners needing some money and a lack of competition from non local buyers being able to travel to view. I thought there could be a good chance that holiday let owners might sell due to a lack of income this summer. These would typically be empty properties, so not much of a coronavirus issue (viewer wears gloves) if agents stayed outside the property. If the housing market opens at the same time as people can travel freely again there's more competition in tourist spots and holiday let income will be rolling in again.

I think this is largely why they have closed the market down, to "save" it. If they fire a starting pistol overnight there could be more people able to buy in places that might interest me. I think the less people able to buy is better for lower prices.

Shutting down completions could cause chaos with the rental market. People buying from rentals could have given notice to leave and a landlord could have accepted a new tenant.

 

not even god can save the housing market now

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Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, No One said:

not even god can save the housing market now

I saw that just as I was about to post that house prices are to the UK what oil is to the U.S.

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Democorruptcy

Democorruptcy

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, No One said:

not even god can save the housing market now

He's probably not bothered, he doesn't have the 20% and 40% liabilities on Help to Buy.

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Boon

Boon

Posted
Posted

Would it not be easier for the government just to take over one of the housebuilders.

Some of them must have a nice portfolio of banked land which they have done nothing with. At these low valuations there may even be a discount of NAV.

This way they could force the building of affordable housing instead of subsidising reluctant companies to do it. TBH a 2020 council flat would not look too much different, or be any different in size to some of the new builds we have today.

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Noallegiance

Noallegiance

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Boon said:

Would it not be easier for the government just to take over one of the housebuilders.

I said this a few years back.

Let housebuilders tank. Nick their almost/recently finished estates. Pop-up council homes.

Bosh.

They're basically council estates anyway.

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spunko

spunko

Posted
  • Author
Posted
15 hours ago, Boon said:

Would it not be easier for the government just to take over one of the housebuilders.

Some of them must have a nice portfolio of banked land which they have done nothing with. At these low valuations there may even be a discount of NAV.

This way they could force the building of affordable housing instead of subsidising reluctant companies to do it. TBH a 2020 council flat would not look too much different, or be any different in size to some of the new builds we have today.

They all have banked land, and nobody knows quite how much as it's all under fake overseas company names but this article has tried to clarify:

https://www.lovemoney.com/gallerylist/72713/the-uks-50-biggest-landowners-revealed

47. Taylor Wimpey: 14,684 acres

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reformed nice guy

reformed nice guy

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Who owned the land in the 1st place ?

The guy who had the biggest gang and the sharpest swords!

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TheCountOfNowhere

TheCountOfNowhere

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

The guy who had the biggest gang and the sharpest swords!

Exactly, the most violent, evil self indulgent c**t of a human being running an organised crime gang.

And we are ruled by their descendants.

See the problem yet ?

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TheCountOfNowhere

TheCountOfNowhere

Posted
Posted
On 17/03/2020 at 14:05, spunko said:

I feel bad for businesses having to suffer.... except housebuilders and estate agents. Fuck 'em and let 'em rot. Be interested in people's predictions on a) if they'll suffer unduly and b) if they do, what props will the government come up with.


So far, most of the share prices are down, but not by any huge % above and beyond what other markets have fallen.

Countrywide:

Screenshot_2020-03-17 COUNTRYWIDE share price (CWD) - London Stock Exchange.png

 

Taylor Wimpey:

 

Screenshot_2020-03-17 TAYLOR WIMPEY share price (TW ) - London Stock Exchange.png

 

Anyone want to make any short and long-term predictions?

Redrow:

Screenshot_2020-03-17 REDROW share price (RDW) - London Stock Exchange.png

By all accounts house builders shot up today because they've been bailed out with free money, err I mean, credit facilities.

 

Redrow plc
LON: RDW
Follow
 

443.60 GBX +38.80 (9.58%)

 

 

Talk abotu corrupt as f8*k,  Who funds the tories !!!!

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