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Flatten the curve


Hail the Tripod
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Hail the Tripod

Everyone I speak to seems very certain that the “social distancing” restrictions are expected to apply for a few weeks, with the occasional dissenter bleakly warning it could be as much as three months. My cubs group keep trying to plan stuff for the second half of the summer term, and the kids football club seem hopeful of still running the summer tournament in May as it will all have blown over by then.

 

Let's say we need 50,000,000 of our 70,000,000 population to have had it to have a relatively effective herd immunity. Roughly 20% of those infected with Covid-19 require hospital care and half of those require ICU care. The UK currently has less than 5,000 ICU places. Let's say we can free up all existing ICU space, and through some herculean effort expand it to four times it's current capacity from day 1 (despite staff shortages from the virus, every health service in the world vying for extra equipent and medicines etc). Let's assume a low estimate of the average stay of 2 weeks (figures are hard to come by but plenty of people seem to have been in there for months with no end in sight). How long do substantial restrictions need to remain in place to "flatten the curve" so that NHS services are not overwhelmed even by these very, very optimistic numbers? Roughly ten and a half years. Obviously the government won't be able to manage infection rates to such a perfect degree, and the NHS won't outperform to such a huge degree, and we won't be able to aquire massive numbers of additonal ventilators overnight. Also there's just no way people can maintain "social distancing" for a decade or more. So it won't be managed to such an optimal outcome. My point is really only that when you look at the actual numbers, the idea that these restrictions will be in place for a few weeks, or at most a few months, is about as realistic as the British Expeditionary Force's expectation in 1939 of giving the Germans a good pasting and being home for Christmas.     

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Pretty much what I've been thinking. I've even been using the phrase "It'll all be over by Christmas" to a few people. None of them got the reference.

One way or another, this changes the world.

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Seen reports that China is recovering.  A Chinese colleague has said things are getting better.  Not sure exactly what that means, but I wonder if their figures for cases and deaths match the 50m out of 70m mentioned for the UK for infections.

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Hail the Tripod
5 minutes ago, NewryH said:

Seen reports that China is recovering.  A Chinese colleague has said things are getting better.  Not sure exactly what that means, but I wonder if their figures for cases and deaths match the 50m out of 70m mentioned for the UK for infections.

Their absolutely draconian “social distancing” restrictions are still fully in place though aren’t they? The moment they let people go about their business as usual the problem will simply roar back to full force within a few weeks.

Edited by Hail the Tripod
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Alonso Quijano

Pretty much all community group activities have been stopped with some community centres closing. There seems to be an impression this is a month's problem, more likely 3-4... It is going to be a long summer (no footy)m events cancelled everywhere. Pubs shut / out of bounds (noticing people stocking up on beer and alcohol down Aldi - eventually the corner shops are going to make a killing!).

People are scared.

I'm watching the Facebook virtue-signalling do-gooders wanting to help, just watch how many old dears are shafted by the opportunists.

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19 minutes ago, Hail the Tripod said:

Their absolutely draconian “social distancing” restrictions are still fully in place though aren’t they? The moment they let people go about their business as usual the problem will simply roar back to full force within a few weeks.

There's a lot of banking on the weather warming up, which may or may not have an effect, but it's a good bet seeing as it "normal flu" infeciton rates always drop off a cliff once the sun comes out. We might be saved by the sun.

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Hail the Tripod
1 minute ago, spunko said:

There's a lot of banking on the weather warming up, which may or may not have an effect, but it's a good bet seeing as it "normal flu" infeciton rates always drop off a cliff once the sun comes out. We might be saved by the sun.

It’s more like a regular cold though, as they are often Coronavirus. And you get them all year round. And no-one has ever produced an effective vaccine.

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Green Devil
34 minutes ago, NewryH said:

Seen reports that China is recovering.  A Chinese colleague has said things are getting better.  Not sure exactly what that means, but I wonder if their figures for cases and deaths match the 50m out of 70m mentioned for the UK for infections.

China have closed the borders. Enforced a 14 days quarantine on new arrivals. That gives them a chance to not get reinfected before a vaccine. 

What have we done? Fuck all. Still open. Borders and airports. This is why the governbankment need the whole population infected. Let it rip. 

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Caravan Monster

Predictions seem to be all over the place, the letter below is copied from a UK Column video and was written by a viewer. There are dosbods far better qualified than myself to assess his analysis, but I do think his assertion that the numbers of infections are far higher than the reported numbers is sensible, and that the resulting percentages being used to project outcomes are probably too high. But then we get contrasting social media reports from Italy suggesting deaths are a bigger percentage and across and wider age range than generally reported.

 

I would like to make some observations regarding the Covid-19 virus outbreak
I do not claim to have any qualifications yet I see some flaws in the 
narrative being portrayed by Western governments and their media.

There are different theories as to how and when the virus originated ranging 
from transfer to bats to an escapement from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
We know that the outbreak began in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province of China.
It is the capital and largest city in Hubei with a population of over 11
million. There are a number of other cities in Hubei which had a total 
population of 58.5 million in 2015 which is similar to that of the UK which had 
a population of 63.1 million in the 2011 census (pop. source Wiki).

It is not known exactly when the outbreak first started because it was a
new virus which went undetected for a period of time. I would suggest
that the virus spread very quickly because of the dense population and was
already well established in Wuhan and its surrounding cities before it
was first detected at the beginning of January 2020.

The data I have been looking at can be found at the following website:
https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/

If we examine the chart shown for the province of Hubei, it states the
following as of 10-03-20:

Confirmed cases: 67,760
Recovered: 47,585
Deaths: 3,024

I have estimated that the number of actual infections per confirmed case is
approximately 600 in this area. This number is derived from dividing the confirmed
cases after the virus has stopped spreading by 70% of the population.
It should be understood that confirmed cases are arbitrary when calculating
death rate as the number will depend on how much testing is performed 
and that people who are tested may already have had the virus and
recovered themselves through their immune system. As I understand it there 
is not yet a way of detecting whether a person has previously had the virus
and become immune.

The first entry on January 21st shows 270 confirmed cases, therefore 600*
270 = 162,000 people infected. We can see that it takes approximately
3 days for the number of confirmed cases to double and using this figure
we can approximately work out when the first infection was. 162,000
must be halved 18 times to reach 1 giving an approximate number of
18*3 = 54 days + 5 days before symptoms appeared = 59 days, therefore
27th November is approximately when the first person was infected.

We can also see from this chart that the number of confirmed cases begins to 
diminish around mid-February. 162,000 must be doubled eight times 
give a figure of 41.5 million after which the population of Hubei cannot
sustain another doubling as there is not enough people left. 8*3
= 24 days which brings us to February 14th, after which the virus runs out
of new hosts to infect.

I have heard death rates being discussed ranging from 1% to 5% because the 
number of confirmed cases is being used for the calculation. However this
number depends on how many people are tested and it cannot detect someone 
who has already had the virus and recovered. If most people who are infected
show little or no symptoms and are not being tested then how can
confirmed cases be used to calculate a death rate?

Hubei has a population of 58.5 million, let us say that 70% of the people
had been infected, or 40.95 million. Therefore:

% of people infected who developed a reportable condition which 
warranted testing and tested positive 67760/40,950,000*100 = 0.1655%
(about 1 in 600)

% of people infected who died 3,024/40,950,000*100 = 0.00738%
(about 1 in 13,541). The % may rise by around a third as 30% of people 
who developed a reportable condition and tested positive have not yet recovered.

A death rate of around 0.007% should cause a little less hysteria.

We have been told that the vulnerable are the sick and the elderly,
 so let us come together as a nation and instead of focusing on
protecting ourselves focus on protecting the vulnerable. Can we 
not put temporary control measures in places such as care homes and hospitals?
The rest of us can protect the vulnerable by becoming infected as quickly 
as possible, allowing our immune system to do its job and kick the virus
back to where it came from.

I would conclude that it is not the virus that is dangerous, but instead
the economic devastation from the hysteria surrounding it.

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Garbage in garbage out. Absolutely no justification to say  that 70% of the population of Hubei was infected. Just trying to find the biggest denominator with no proof whatsoever. 

I have estimated that the number of actual infections per confirmed case is
approximately 600 in this area. This number is derived from dividing the confirmed
cases after the virus has stopped spreading by 70% of the population.

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Caravan Monster

Yes, I was wondering where the 70% came from. I guess garbage in garbage out is going to stand with most projections unless most of the population is tested on a regular basis.

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M S E Refugee

In the UK we seem to be estimating the amount of cases by multiplying the death rate by 1000.

The other day there were 20 deaths and they estimated 20000 cases and then yesterday there were 55 deaths so they estimated 55000 cases.

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14 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

In the UK we seem to be estimating the amount of cases by multiplying the death rate by 1000.

The other day there were 20 deaths and they estimated 20000 cases and then yesterday there were 55 deaths so they estimated 55000 cases.

 

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Green Devil
1 hour ago, Caravan Monster said:

Yes, I was wondering where the 70% came from. I guess garbage in garbage out is going to stand with most projections unless most of the population is tested on a regular basis.

Perhaps this is where the UK experts got their figure from 😂

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Hail the Tripod
25 minutes ago, spygirl said:

A very good report on the Imperial report

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03/17/1584439125000/That-Imperial-coronavirus-report--in-detail-/

Free but register.

Lots of numbers n charts.

Summers fucked

0f44557f-7d59-45da-b9ce-c57150d11474.png

So they’re assuming a 1% death rate, and a comprehensive failure of the government/public to flatten the curve. Very optimistic.

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2 hours ago, Hail the Tripod said:

It’s more like a regular cold though, as they are often Coronavirus. And you get them all year round. And no-one has ever produced an effective vaccine.

Yes no effective vaccine but they do display a similar patter nof seasonality, no reason to believe the China Flu won't be the same.

ES-8XWJXQAA4gFj.jpg.jpg.3356a066622545ddbc1632e316965d5d.jpg

 

1.jpg.jpg.e61c1daee01299b75a35cf08166e6a2a.jpg

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5 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Yes no effective vaccine but they do display a similar patter nof seasonality, no reason to believe the China Flu won't be the same.

ES-8XWJXQAA4gFj.jpg.jpg.3356a066622545ddbc1632e316965d5d.jpg

 

1.jpg.jpg.e61c1daee01299b75a35cf08166e6a2a.jpg

2009 blows that all out of the water.

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One argument is shut down the economy to protect the aged.

The other argument is fuck the boomers and save the economy.

imo, the economy has, for over a decade at least, been just as frail as any sickly old person. It's been propped up with smoke, mirrors and monopoly money. The economy is going to tank no matter what efforts are or are not made to protect the aged.

 

 

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On 17/03/2020 at 17:20, spunko said:

There's a lot of banking on the weather warming up, which may or may not have an effect, but it's a good bet seeing as it "normal flu" infeciton rates always drop off a cliff once the sun comes out. We might be saved by the sun.

Spain had a heatwave from the 10th to the 15th - if their lockdown starts looking to be working a few days earlier than the Italian one then we'll know.

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