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The big collapse


TheCountOfNowhere
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TheCountOfNowhere

For years i said there was no point worrying about missing the boat buying a house before 2012 because the whole system was so clearly broken a massive collapse was inevitable. 

The wuhan flu has tipped a massively unstable system into melt down.

The actions of the central bankers and governments were predicted but are so ludicrous i cant think many believed they would happen. 

So here we are, worldwide pandemic that will play out one way or another, collapsing stock markets, businesses with no buffers to weather a storm, a worried population with many up to their eyes in debt, helicopter money becoming real. 

How long can their system continue? 

How long till all out collapse? 

Weeks, months, a year, 2 or more ? 

People might need to start planning for sone sort of Argentina type event, maybe war. 

This madness can't go on much longer. 

The US say a argue recession is unavoidable now, when the US catches a cold we get coronavirus 

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I don't think there's any way of knowing is there?  If the madness continues there will be a collapse, if they do nothing there will be a collapse.  Given their previous, the madness will continue 

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Whatever the result of this it does make you realise how fragile our economic system is in the West when we're only a few days into this crisis really biting and already businesses are sounding alarm bells about cashflow. I sort of knew as much anyway but an eye opener nonetheless to have it confirmed that a good chunk of the nation's businesses literally are hand-to-mouth. 2-4 weeks of slower trade than anticipated and they're almost gone without support. And this is large businesses too.

As of today I have 2 months before I will need to start slashing "fixed costs" i.e. staff.  Possibly can stretch that to 3 months. All non-essential spend stopped today. Reduced stock orders. We do quite a bit of export to France and Spain. Our largest French customer was due to collect a lorry load on Friday, they're shut down until further notice. A load of Spanish bound product sat in our warehouse, no idea what is happening with it. Cancelled orders starting to mount and new orders barely anything. It will be batten down the hatches for a few months at the least. Going to be carnage out there.

Edited by SillyBilly
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TheCountOfNowhere
12 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Collapse imminent, as you have been saying for a while.

I feel a sense of helplessness watching it. 

The people in charge are either clueless, gullible or criminal 

3 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

Whatever the result of this it does make you realise how fragile our economic system is in the West when we're only a few days into this crisis really biting and already businesses are sounding alarm bells about cashflow. I sort of knew as much anyway but an eye opener nonetheless to have it confirmed that a good chunk of the nation's businesses literally are hand-to-mouth. 2-4 weeks of slower trade than anticipated and they're almost gone without support. And this is large businesses too.

As of today I have 2 months before I will need to start slashing "fixed costs" i.e. staff.  Possibly can stretch that to 3 months. All non-essential spend stopped today. Reduced stock orders. We do quite a bit of export to France and Spain. Our largest French customer was due to collect a lorry load on Friday, they're shut down until further notice. A load of Spanish bound product sat in our warehouse, no idea what is happening with it. Cancelled orders starting to mount and new orders barely anything. It will be batten down the hatches for a few months at the least. Going to be carnage out there.

Good luck.i sincerely mean that 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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7 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I feel a sense of helplessness watching it. 

Me too.

I was reading a book called  Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need To Know About Global Politics.  The content isn't relevant as such, but what is, is the way it talks about diplomats making decisions that affect people.  It made me think: Who are these stuffed suits to make decisions that affect our lives, like we're pieces on the cliched chess board.

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sleepwello'nights
51 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

Whatever the result of this it does make you realise how fragile our economic system is in the West when we're only a few days into this crisis really biting and already businesses are sounding alarm bells about cashflow. I sort of knew as much anyway but an eye opener nonetheless to have it confirmed that a good chunk of the nation's businesses literally are hand-to-mouth. 2-4 weeks of slower trade than anticipated and they're almost gone without support. And this is large businesses too.

 

Have you had any details of the financial assistance packages announced today?

From the headlines you will have a business rates holiday, presumably you can defer payment of any taxes and there are loans to be made available.

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

For years i said there was no point worrying about missing the boat buying a house before 2012 because the whole system was so clearly broken a massive collapse was inevitable. 

The wuhan flu has tipped a massively unstable system into melt down.

The actions of the central bankers and governments were predicted but are so ludicrous i cant think many believed they would happen. 

So here we are, worldwide pandemic that will play out one way or another, collapsing stock markets, businesses with no buffers to weather a storm, a worried population with many up to their eyes in debt, helicopter money becoming real. 

How long can their system continue? 

How long till all out collapse? 

Weeks, months, a year, 2 or more ? 

People might need to start planning for sone sort of Argentina type event, maybe war. 

This madness can't go on much longer. 

The US say a argue recession is unavoidable now, when the US catches a cold we get coronavirus 

With this massive money printing I'm really confused what will happen next. Argentina type..? I don't think so.

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35 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Have you had any details of the financial assistance packages announced today?

From the headlines you will have a business rates holiday, presumably you can defer payment of any taxes and there are loans to be made available.

Business rate cuts are for companies in the leisure, retail & hospitality sector. No information as to whether they will be extended to other sectors as yet. And I suspect if it is expanded it will start as they originally did with the 1st offer i.e. cuts for companies with a rateable value of less than £51,000. We're above that. We pay about £3k a month in rates, our electricity bill is more than that; in other words if I scrambling around for £3k I am probably at the point where we are shutting up shop anyway. 

As for the loans we'll see, if they can pull this off without it being a bureaucractic nightmare then fair play. How confident are we in UK plc to deliver a project like this? If you are accessing a loan things must be pretty dire and therefore it needs to be a quick process or you're out, can they do it? Lots of questions at the moment and the government is obviously making policy on the fly. Every announcement from the chancellor thusfar is exactly that, an announcement. No infrastructure or delivery in place as yet.

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TheCountOfNowhere
6 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

Business rate cuts are for companies in the leisure, retail & hospitality sector. No information as to whether they will be extended to other sectors as yet. And I suspect if it is expanded it will start as they originally did with the 1st offer i.e. cuts for companies with a rateable value of less than £51,000. We're above that. We pay about £3k a month in rates, our electricity bill is more than that; in other words if I scrambling around for £3k I am probably at the point where we are shutting up shop anyway. 

As for the loans we'll see, if they can pull this off without it being a bureaucractic nightmare then fair play. How confident are we in UK plc to deliver a project like this? If you are accessing a loan things must be pretty dire and therefore it needs to be a quick process or you're out, can they do it? Lots of questions at the moment and the government is obviously making policy on the fly. Every announcement from the chancellor thusfar is exactly that, an announcement. No infrastructure or delivery in place as yet.

The loans will go to banks and builders 🤣🤣🤣

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17 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The loans will go to banks and builders 🤣🤣🤣

They will introduce a special "landlords loan" with ultra low rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy through further investment in real estate.

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7 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

They will introduce a special "landlords loan" with ultra low rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy through further investment in real estate.

 

6152500834_cff5bbd1c5_b.jpg

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2 hours ago, SillyBilly said:

Whatever the result of this it does make you realise how fragile our economic system is in the West when we're only a few days into this crisis really biting and already businesses are sounding alarm bells about cashflow. I sort of knew as much anyway but an eye opener nonetheless to have it confirmed that a good chunk of the nation's businesses literally are hand-to-mouth. 2-4 weeks of slower trade than anticipated and they're almost gone without support. And this is large businesses too.

As of today I have 2 months before I will need to start slashing "fixed costs" i.e. staff.  Possibly can stretch that to 3 months. All non-essential spend stopped today. Reduced stock orders. We do quite a bit of export to France and Spain. Our largest French customer was due to collect a lorry load on Friday, they're shut down until further notice. A load of Spanish bound product sat in our warehouse, no idea what is happening with it. Cancelled orders starting to mount and new orders barely anything. It will be batten down the hatches for a few months at the least. Going to be carnage out there.

It didn't have to be like this though. The government have created the (possibly) false idea that this will carry on for another year, but there's no evidence either way.

They should have instead said the next few WEEKS will be tough, here's a few billion in grants to tide you over, but after that we will see. 

Instead they've focused on shoring up the Holy NHS and thrown small business owners under a bus. Boris is a calamity. 

 

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Wight Flight
3 hours ago, SillyBilly said:

As of today I have 2 months before I will need to start slashing "fixed costs" i.e. staff.  Possibly can stretch that to 3 months. All non-essential spend stopped today.

I thought that.

But have you tried getting your debtors list to pay? It seems like the music has stopped and whatever you had in your hand at the time is yours to keep.

I should probably be putting half my customers on stop. I have done so with some already, but it hasn't made any difference. I guess some other fool will supply them. Despite the fact that on paper they look solid.

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11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

For years i said there was no point worrying about missing the boat buying a house before 2012 because the whole system was so clearly broken a massive collapse was inevitable. 

The wuhan flu has tipped a massively unstable system into melt down.

The actions of the central bankers and governments were predicted but are so ludicrous i cant think many believed they would happen. 

So here we are, worldwide pandemic that will play out one way or another, collapsing stock markets, businesses with no buffers to weather a storm, a worried population with many up to their eyes in debt, helicopter money becoming real. 

How long can their system continue? 

How long till all out collapse? 

Weeks, months, a year, 2 or more ? 

People might need to start planning for sone sort of Argentina type event, maybe war. 

This madness can't go on much longer. 

The US say a argue recession is unavoidable now, when the US catches a cold we get coronavirus 

The best lesson that I ever learnt was to only worry about the things that I had any control over. Worrying about other stuff that you cannot control is just wasted energy.

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Castlevania
8 hours ago, SillyBilly said:

They will introduce a special "landlords loan" with ultra low rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy through further investment in real estate.

They’ve just restarted FLS/TFS under a different name to get banks lending to small business. By small business they really mean buy to let.

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TheCountOfNowhere
14 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

They’ve just restarted FLS/TFS under a different name to get banks lending to small business. By small business they really mean buy to let.

It's all about their asset prices and their wealth.

 

Nothing more.

 

Greed, power, stupidity, a dangerous combination

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The year the earth stood still.

To avoid collapse they cannot try to manage normal economic behaviour as there are too many moving pieces. Throwing endless magic money at it just results in everything being on life support and reverting to socialist central government ownership.

Everything should just pause indefinately like in times of total war. Any business not able to contribute to the emergency (either with their current services and products or by quickly repositioning their output) is put on hold. All debts, bills, and outgoings are frozen. People don't get paid, they get ration cards with government buying the essential supplies to ensure it is managed properly and not the free-for-all we see at the supermarkets currently.

If they think this really is months to a year before normality will return then behaving as if it is only a few weeks of inconvenience isn't going to work, they need to come up with a proper all-encompassing strategy to see out the remainder of the year.

We are at war.

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TheCountOfNowhere
3 minutes ago, BoSon said:

The year the earth stood still.

To avoid collapse they cannot try to manage normal economic behaviour as there are too many moving pieces. Throwing endless magic money at it just results in everything being on life support and reverting to socialist central government ownership.

Everything should just pause indefinately like in times of total war. Any business not able to contribute to the emergency (either with their current services and products or by quickly repositioning their output) is put on hold. All debts, bills, and outgoings are frozen. People don't get paid, they get ration cards with government buying the essential supplies to ensure it is managed properly and not the free-for-all we see at the supermarkets currently.

If they think this really is months to a year before normality will return then behaving as if it is only a few weeks of inconvenience isn't going to work, they need to come up with a proper all-encompassing strategy to see out the remainder of the year.

We are at war.

It's totally crazy. Probably the worst possible scenarios we are in.

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18 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

It's totally crazy. Probably the worst possible scenarios we are in.

It is crazy, considering for the vast majority of people the virus is no worse than other seasonal illnesses that don't bring society to the brink of collapse.

The problem is the lack of preparedness for such a scenario of having a large portion of elderly population at risk and no infrastructure to cope with providing them the specialist care they would need. Typical of the short sighted management we get in modern times where it's knee-jerk rather than proactive, chasing profit today rather than ready for what the future may throw up.

 

 

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TheCountOfNowhere
5 minutes ago, BoSon said:

It is crazy, considering for the vast majority of people the virus is no worse than other seasonal illnesses that don't bring society to the brink of collapse.

The problem is the lack of preparedness for such a scenario of having a large portion of elderly population at risk and no infrastructure to cope with providing them the specialist care they would need. Typical of the short sighted management we get in modern times where it's knee-jerk rather than proactive, chasing profit today rather than ready for what the future may throw up.

 

 

Yeah. all TPTB have been concerned about is running their ponzi scheme.

I am hoping people get very angry about this.

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13 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I thought that.

But have you tried getting your debtors list to pay? It seems like the music has stopped and whatever you had in your hand at the time is yours to keep.

I should probably be putting half my customers on stop. I have done so with some already, but it hasn't made any difference. I guess some other fool will supply them. Despite the fact that on paper they look solid.

Aye, we've usually got good payers but unsurprisingly a couple have already not paid on time for large amounts in the past couple of weeks and difficult to pin them down. Clearly everyone will be hoarding and protecting their cash pile now (we will be for sure), but unfortunately a lot will using their suppliers' like us as free credit facilities. This thing is moving fast though, spoken to a few MDs we do business with over the past few days, another this morning, and it sounds like the hatches are being battened down now well and truly. These are solid businesses too. 

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