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The big collapse


TheCountOfNowhere

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18 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Don't want to be the bearer of bad news. Money just seems to have stopped. People aren't paying me and I won't be paying my suppliers unless I really, really have to.

It's all gone a bit FUBAR very quickly.

The words "credit crunch" have re-arisen. They 'solved' it last time so no worries, they'll just print their way out again. The miracle economy.

I hope they have the foresight to see this is a great opportunity to rip up the current system and put something better in place. The debt based consumer society has had its day. Time for the big reset and reach for the stars. "Make it so." B|

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Wight Flight

Worth bearing in mind that it is the quarter day next Wednesday.

There will be a LOT of rents not being paid.

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13 hours ago, One percent said:

A lot of working people are living hand to mouth. I cant lay my hands on the figures but the number of people with little to no savings is frightening. Money churn has stopped dead. 

Been the case since ~2007ish.

Basicially, most families rely on having a school age kid to keep the bennies coming in.

Once the kid hits 18 - poof!

All falls to bit.

having people in expensive private rentals makes the situation even worse. They should have never bailed out IO BTL - should have moved all IO BTL off the banks and onto specialist finance companies in 2010.

The number of people in their 40s who are basciallt fucked in a few years time is eye brow rasiing.

No money, no assets, no skills, no work experience beyond doing the absolute minimum.

 

 

 

 

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55 minutes ago, BoSon said:

The words "credit crunch" have re-arisen. They 'solved' it last time so no worries, they'll just print their way out again. The miracle economy.

I hope they have the foresight to see this is a great opportunity to rip up the current system and put something better in place. The debt based consumer society has had its day. Time for the big reset and reach for the stars. "Make it so." B|

Credit crunch was a large bit of of browns-speak.

It was a huge fucking recession caused by the gormless cunt blowing the biggest credit bubble the UK had ever seen.

And Labour choose to lessen the impact by shoving the cos on the young and not born. making the assumption the UK will be OK, as logn as they dont have recession i nthe next 20 years.

The roots of 2008 are in 2000 when brown started spending like fuck to cover up the massive slow down, was threating his bid to be PM - no more boom n busts etc.

All that money expansion went into the financial and public sector, who just blew up even bigger bust  in 2007/2008.

 

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Aye, whoever started it all successive governments have continued it. We may vote for different coloured teams but they're all the same shit colour underneath.

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TheCountOfNowhere
2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Credit crunch was a large bit of of browns-speak.

It was a huge fucking recession caused by the gormless cunt blowing the biggest credit bubble the UK had ever seen.

And Labour choose to lessen the impact by shoving the cos on the young and not born. making the assumption the UK will be OK, as logn as they dont have recession i nthe next 20 years.

The roots of 2008 are in 2000 when brown started spending like fuck to cover up the massive slow down, was threating his bid to be PM - no more boom n busts etc.

All that money expansion went into the financial and public sector, who just blew up even bigger bust  in 2007/2008.

 

It's happened before...Me thinks some bankers knew what they were doingv

 

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2 hours ago, BoSon said:

Aye, whoever started it all successive governments have continued it. We may vote for different coloured teams but they're all the same shit colour underneath.

Not quite.

You had the Barbe boom, but that was tiny.

The boom from 86->89, that lew up 89->95, was small by comparison. And the Cons took he fall out o nthe chin.

In 89, London HPI ration was ~7ish. By 1995 it was 3.

The cretin Brown started preparing for he most unholy expansion of credit by deregulating the banks *AND* massive UKGOV spend.

Growing the economy by using he banks and heir assets is dead now. 2008 killed that off, dead.

Banks are shrinking, both in size and assets.

MMR ties HP to wages.

 

 

 

 

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Long time lurking
On 17/03/2020 at 23:48, spunko said:

It didn't have to be like this though. The government have created the (possibly) false idea that this will carry on for another year, but there's no evidence either way.

They should have instead said the next few WEEKS will be tough, here's a few billion in grants to tide you over, but after that we will see. 

Instead they've focused on shoring up the Holy NHS and thrown small business owners under a bus. Boris is a calamity. 

 

It`s a play from the barristers play book ,tell the defendant they are looking at the worst possible sentence anything less makes them look good 

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I'll go out on a limb and say - there wont be a big collapse.

However, there will be several 100,000 small collapses - all these daft self employment scams and zero hours nonsense.

 

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5 hours ago, spygirl said:

Credit crunch was a large bit of of browns-speak.

It was a huge fucking recession caused by the gormless cunt blowing the biggest credit bubble the UK had ever seen.

And Labour choose to lessen the impact by shoving the cos on the young and not born. making the assumption the UK will be OK, as logn as they dont have recession i nthe next 20 years.

The roots of 2008 are in 2000 when brown started spending like fuck to cover up the massive slow down, was threating his bid to be PM - no more boom n busts etc.

All that money expansion went into the financial and public sector, who just blew up even bigger bust  in 2007/2008.

 

I will be very interested to see if and how the government goes about keeping all the dominoes upright. Do they have enough weaponry to double their rentier subsidies with a significantly smaller economy? Will the market tell them to fuck off? Will the market tell most of Europe to fuck off?

I reckon so. But then what do I know. I'm amazed they have managed get this far!

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Just come off a Microsoft team meeting with a key client and rest of the consultant team. No rest for us. We've been given the go ahead to crack on with at least 3 months work! All feeling surreal though as it's just us and perhaps one other firm in our managed workspace building. Definite Marie Celeste vibe. Reception has now shut so god knows what the postie will be doing with the mail. Probably cut out the middle man and chuck it straight into the wheelie bins. 

One of the larger tenants seems to have locked up and gone away. Their business appears to be engaged in what my wife amusingly says is the field of 'bibbly bollocks'. Lots of post it notes on walls, scribbling on whiteboards, pot noodles piled up etc etc. Average age of maybe 25. Most critically their ping pong table has been folded up and put to one side. I take this to be a bad sign for them.

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Castlevania
On 20/03/2020 at 11:03, Wight Flight said:

Worth bearing in mind that it is the quarter day next Wednesday.

There will be a LOT of rents not being paid.

Intu have apparently only received 30% of the rent due. When even well run companies like Primark aren’t paying, you have a problem.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-lakeside-owner-intu-to-lay-bare-scale-of-retail-rent-crisis-11963708

I wonder how well the various councils that thought it would be a good idea to pay over the odds for shopping centres and retail parks are doing?

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17 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Intu have apparently only received 30% of the rent due. When even well run companies like Primark aren’t paying, you have a problem.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-lakeside-owner-intu-to-lay-bare-scale-of-retail-rent-crisis-11963708

I wonder how well the various councils that thought it would be a good idea to pay over the odds for shopping centres and retail parks are doing?

Does it matter? They'll just continue to extort money out of council tax payers. Their disgustingly large pensions to staff will be paid even if it means people can't afford to eat.

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8 minutes ago, Andersen said:

Trust tomorrow to be Friday, this sounds huge.  @DurhamBorn do you think they won't issue a bailout package for this issue as the time has come for the market to hurt the most people? That expression stayed with me, I'd never even heard that idea before let alone the expression

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14 minutes ago, Loki said:

Trust tomorrow to be Friday, this sounds huge.  @DurhamBorn do you think they won't issue a bailout package for this issue as the time has come for the market to hurt the most people? That expression stayed with me, I'd never even heard that idea before let alone the expression

All just noise its not systemic.Brokers hedged and lost,some will go under,longer term it means higher rates,all part of the process.

Housing isnt where the problems are this time (compared to other areas),the big banks are ok for now,the smaller brokers can go under,their books will be taken over.

At the moment the market is being pulled two ways.It is trying to price the demand shock on the sell side,and the liquidity punch on the buy side.As the premise of this thread you are already seeing the internals move to reflation areas.

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7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

All just noise its not systemic.Brokers hedged and lost,some will go under,longer term it means higher rates,all part of the process.

Housing isnt where the problems are this time (compared to other areas),the big banks are ok for now,the smaller brokers can go under,their books will be taken over.

At the moment the market is being pulled two ways.It is trying to price the demand shock on the sell side,and the liquidity punch on the buy side.As the premise of this thread you are already seeing the internals move to reflation areas.

Thanks for explaining it from a macro point of view, that makes sense

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  • 3 weeks later...
sancho panza
1 hour ago, Andersen said:

USA predicting 30-40% drop in house prices in the next few months https://money.yahoo.com/housing-expert-home-sales-could-fall-30-to-40-in-the-next-months-175517390.html 

Hong Kong looking like it's going to go pop real estate wise.

China shadow banking tastic.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/04/21/mainland-chinese-stop-buying-hong-kong-residential-properties-try-to-unload-what-they-have-prices-follow/

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TheCountOfNowhere
2 hours ago, Andersen said:

USA predicting 30-40% drop in house prices in the next few months https://money.yahoo.com/housing-expert-home-sales-could-fall-30-to-40-in-the-next-months-175517390.html 

That's sales not prices.

They dont expect prices to fall depsite 20million losing their jobs.

If they dont the central bankers are to blame

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