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Would it be better to just let everyone die that is going to die of Covid19 and save the economy?


swiss_democracy_for_all
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Would it be better to just let everyone die that is going to die of Covid19 and save the economy?  

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swiss_democracy_for_all

Would it be better to just let everyone die that is going to die of Covid19 and save the economy? Just get on with life and bury/burn the dead, like they did in 1919?

As things are,  with everyone isolating etc, the destruction of the economy and banking system could lead to a far worse outcome than 4-5% of the population dying, mostly oldies.

Now I, and some members of my family, but importantly not my daughter, could be one of the dead in this scenario. But I'm starting to wonder whether it might be better anyway than the outcome of destroying the economy, possibly leading to wars and much greater destruction.

Have humans become so poncey that we can't cope with the idea of some of us dying, and this will lead to a worse outcome than just getting on with it?

The 1918/19 flu outbreak followed a devastating war, the way things are going this one will end up the other way round. 

 

I realise there is also an argument that the present financial system is unsustainable and this is as good a time as any to break it. 

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No. We are unlikely to build long lasting immunity to the virus and it's fairly likely that subsequent infections will be worse. We could all keep catching it til it kills us.

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Not accurate to say everyone, more like it'll be 2%. IMPO if that were the case, then yes. Most of the dead in other countries would not have lived more than 5 years anyway. Harsh, but true.

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Hail the Tripod
3 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

Would it be better to just let everyone die that is going to die of Covid19 and save the economy? Just get on with life and bury/burn the dead, like they did in 1919?

As things are,  with everyone isolating etc, the destruction of the economy and banking system could lead to a far worse outcome than 4-5% of the population dying, mostly oldies.

Now I, and some members of my family, but importantly not my daughter, could be one of the dead in this scenario. But I'm starting to wonder whether it might be better anyway than the outcome of destroying the economy, possibly leading to wars and much greater destruction.

Have humans become so poncey that we can't cope with the idea of some of us dying, and this will lead to a worse outcome than just getting on with it?

The 1918/19 flu outbreak followed a devastating war, the way things are going this one will end up the other way round. 

 

I realise there is also an argument that the present financial system is unsustainable and this is as good a time as any to break it. 

If the death rate climbs high and out of control people won’t “keep calm and carry on”, it won’t be 5% without medical care, it’ll be 15-20%. Not to mention those that emerge with severe lung scarring. No-one is going to be turning up to do their crappy minimum wage job regardless of policy. But maybe they'll take to burning the houses of the infected with them inside.

This is as much about maintaining order as keeping people alive.

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There would be a very strong argument for identifying all 'at risk' and then isolating those, with obvious contacts (health workers, carers) having a very limited social contact existence as well, but leaving everyone else to get on with things.

The trouble would be getting people to comply -- for some reason everyone I know is managing to cope within the guidelines apart from about half of my older relatives, who seem to completely miss the point multiple times a day.

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swiss_democracy_for_all
3 minutes ago, This Time said:

No. We are unlikely to build long lasting immunity to the virus and it's fairly likely that subsequent infections will be worse. We could all keep catching it til it kills us.

It's true that the future evolution of this virus is unclear, but if it follows the pattern of other coronaviruses in humans it will kill progressively less and less and eventually become like a cold. There is also a decent chance of a vaccine at some point.

Do you really think it can be eliminated entirely now, worldwide? It'll be back later whatever is done now.

3 minutes ago, Hail the Tripod said:

If the death rate climbs high and out of control people won’t “keep calm and carry on”, it won’t be 5% without medical care, it’ll be 15-20%. Not to mention those that emerge with severe lung scarring. No-one is going to be turning up to do their crappy minimum wage job regardless of policy. But maybe they'll take to burning the houses of the infected with them inside.

This is as much about maintaining order as keeping people alive.

No, the evidence points to maximum 5% ICU cases, those are the ones who would die except for the lucky few. 15% would get unpleasantly sick but survive. 80% no ill-effects to speak of.

But your point about order possibly not being maintained if it was allowed to run wild is valid, because people are hysterical about death these days.

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The almost unique set of circumstances is that the world is experiencing a similar level of economic upset. We print, they print. We bailout, they bailout. The £ inflates, so too does the euro and $ etc.

At the end of all this, isn’t the likelihood systems have experienced a huge shock but in relative terms, no one country or currency is stronger than another??

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20 minutes ago, This Time said:

No. We are unlikely to build long lasting immunity to the virus and it's fairly likely that subsequent infections will be worse. We could all keep catching it til it kills us.

if that is the case it will happen anyway

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4 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

Do you really think it can be eliminated entirely now, worldwide? It'll be back later whatever is done now.

I think we can eliminate in the first world and quarantine everyone coming in from countries that haven't eliminated it until they do. 

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Hail the Tripod
19 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

It's true that the future evolution of this virus is unclear, but if it follows the pattern of other coronaviruses in humans it will kill progressively less and less and eventually become like a cold. There is also a decent chance of a vaccine at some point.

Do you really think it can be eliminated entirely now, worldwide? It'll be back later whatever is done now.

No, the evidence points to maximum 5% ICU cases, those are the ones who would die except for the lucky few. 15% would get unpleasantly sick but survive. 80% no ill-effects to speak of.

But your point about order possibly not being maintained if it was allowed to run wild is valid, because people are hysterical about death these days.

More than 4% of all those infected have died already, while more than half of cases are still unresolved. Most of these have had access to significant medical intervention. Sorry, but the idea that without access to healthcare the max death toll is sub 5% is risible.

 

1B3C1098-2834-4EDA-AC82-F83E72618D66.png

Edited by Hail the Tripod
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10 minutes ago, Rowley said:

The almost unique set of circumstances is that the world is experiencing a similar level of economic upset. We print, they print. We bailout, they bailout. The £ inflates, so too does the euro and $ etc.

At the end of all this, isn’t the likelihood systems have experienced a huge shock but in relative terms, no one country or currency is stronger than another??

But everyone will be worse off.

It is the broken window fallacy -- we'll have spent 4 months expending all our efforts to replace a window that wasn't broken in December.

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swiss_democracy_for_all
3 minutes ago, This Time said:

I think we can eliminate in the first world and quarantine everyone coming in from countries that haven't eliminated it until they do. 

Really? Take a look at this. Then reflect that each number in very country is probably a fraction (1st world) or tiny fraction(mid-world or 3rd world) of the actual number of infections. It's here for good now.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

2 minutes ago, Hail the Tripod said:

More than 5% of all those infected have died already, while more than half of cases are still unresolved. Most of these have had access to significant medical intervention. Sorry, but the idea that without access to healthcare the max death toll is sub 5% is risible.

 

1B3C1098-2834-4EDA-AC82-F83E72618D66.png

Confirmed cases <> number of actual cases. Not even close.

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4 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

Really? Take a look at this. Then reflect that each number in very country is probably a fraction (1st world) or tiny fraction(mid-world or 3rd world) of the actual number of infections. It's here for good now.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

Confirmed cases <> number of actual cases. Not even close.

People keep thinking like it's flu. It's not flu. There's no animal reservoir. We can stamp it out country by country until it's gone.

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swiss_democracy_for_all
1 minute ago, This Time said:

People keep thinking like it's flu. It's not flu. There's no animal reservoir. We can stamp it out country by country until it's gone.

So you think we could stamp out the common cold too if we wanted to?

20% of people with Covid19 have no noticeable symptoms.

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39 minutes ago, This Time said:

No. We are unlikely to build long lasting immunity to the virus and it's fairly likely that subsequent infections will be worse. We could all keep catching it til it kills us.

And if we don't catch it how will we live? In dark caves looking for worms?

 

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Just now, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

So you think we could stamp out the common cold too if we wanted to?

20% of people with Covid19 have no noticeable symptoms.

We probably could if there was the will. In that case the cure would be worse than the disease though. We need a big lockdown now and when this outbreak subsides we need to tag the SARS2 test on to every routine blood test and shut down smaller areas and contact trace when the virus is found.

3 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

And if we don't catch it how will we live? In dark caves looking for worms?

 

I'm a virologist. That's a job for someone with logistics and agriculture experience.

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swiss_democracy_for_all
17 minutes ago, This Time said:

We probably could if there was the will. In that case the cure would be worse than the disease though. We need a big lockdown now and when this outbreak subsides we need to tag the SARS2 test on to every routine blood test and shut down smaller areas and contact trace when the virus is found.

I guess that's the case that I am considering regarding Covid19.

I don't suppose I would feel the same in the event I ended up dying or with lung scarring, at 55 you'd have to say that's a possibility, but I'm trying to consider this in an unemotional manner.

To my mind if we let it run wild the outcome would be (probably, given the unknowns about the evolution of the virus) :-

1. Loss of a fair proportion of the oldest and physically weakest, probably 4-5% of the population. More in the 1st world where life expectancy has been so stretched out and the weak have been breeding for multiple generations. Less in African nations and other countries with weak healthcare.

2. Loss of a small minority of others.

3. Some longterm physical effects on another small minority.

 

The outcome of the road that we're taking, all to prevent the above, looks potentially a lot worse.

Edited by swiss_democracy_for_all
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Hail the Tripod
6 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

I guess that's the case that I am considering regarding Covid19.

I don't suppose I would feel the same in the event I ended up dying or with lung scarring, at 55 you'd have to say that's a possibility, but I'm trying to consider this in an unemotional manner.

To my mind if we let it run wild the outcome would be (probably, given the unknowns about the evolution of the virus) :-

1. Loss of a fair proportion of the oldest and physically weakest, probably 4-5% of the population. More in the 1st world where life expectancy has been so stretched out and the weak have been breeding for multiple generations. Less in African nations and other countries with weak healthcare.

2. Loss of a small minority of others.

3. Some longterm physical effects on another small minority.

 

The outcome of the road that we're taking, all to prevent the above, looks potentially a lot worse.

I don’t know...   There’s a lot of AIDS in Africa.

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JohnThePessimist

The minute we accept people playing God with others lives, we will have left a very toxic genie out of the bottle. I accept triage takes place in the current crisis, but that’s different to using triage as a policy tool. What next? Eugenics? Euthanasia when no longer economically adding value? 

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30 minutes ago, This Time said:

We probably could if there was the will. In that case the cure would be worse than the disease though. We need a big lockdown now and when this outbreak subsides we need to tag the SARS2 test on to every routine blood test and shut down smaller areas and contact trace when the virus is found.

I'm a virologist. That's a job for someone with logistics and agriculture experience.

So can we kill it if we quarantine for long enough? (And I mean until the risk of everyone in the household having got it is gone? which would be how long do you think? I'm assuming it's from a house size. One person is a short time than two, shorter than three etc. ) 

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43 minutes ago, This Time said:

People keep thinking like it's flu. It's not flu. There's no animal reservoir. We can stamp it out country by country until it's gone.

It's in Africa.  Stamping it out country by country is impossible.  

 

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InLikeFlynn
40 minutes ago, This Time said:

 We need a big lockdown now and when this outbreak subsides we need to tag the SARS2 test on to every routine blood test and shut down smaller areas and contact trace when the virus is found.

 

I think this is roughly the new plan.

  • Quarantine and social distancing to run down and eventually wipe out the infection in the UK.
  • Dramatic and unprecedented border controls
  • Aggressive "track and trace" of new infections as they arise
  • Development of Vaccine/improved clinical treatments/more sophisticated and faster tests

At least I hope it is. The sad fact is that if we had shut our borders as soon as Wuhan kicked off we could be one of the "winners" in the great game of coronachaos. As it is we'll end up with a blown out economy, vast national debt and exhausted and backlogged NHS.

Edited by InLikeFlynn
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