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ICL v Oxford. Fight!!!!!


spygirl
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1 hour ago, spygirl said:

*IF* Ox ford are right, and half the UK have had it already andthe number of deaths are very low then Trump is right..

Thank **** for that..  about time we had some good news.    Thanks for posting!

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5 minutes ago, Libspero said:

Thank **** for that..  about time we had some good news.    Thanks for posting!

You can swear on here. Cunt....

16 minutes ago, MrPin said:

I think many people have had it, but weren't famous, so it didn't make the news.

Are you riddled, Sooty?

Did Sue sleep her way to the top?

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9 minutes ago, lid said:

What happens if we've just had mild strain though, does that mean we can still get the bad one?

Maybe the mild strain caused enough damage for the bad strain to be more fatal. Double dosed = dead. :ph34r:

 

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55 minutes ago, Loki said:

Yup.  I'm 99% convinced it (Of whatever strain) was here before Christmas 

I've very much come round to that. 

The number of people in my office alone who had a very unusually bad cough / bad flu type thing in the autumn was not "normal".

As I've already said one burd in the team got plurosy from it and so did her daughter. 

Were put on antibiotics. Doesn't sound very far away from what is coming out about this virus now. And back then it didn't exist as far as her doctors were concerned of course.

So they may well have had covid and then the subsequent bacterial chest infection many appear to get with it. 

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Not a chance. The proportion of positive tests right back when we started testing was way too low for that only 0.37% of tests done up to the 3rd of March were positive and this was in people who you would expect were more likely to have the disease due to symptoms and contact with known infected or recent travel to hot zones. We're only getting 20.5% positive now and that's with only testing people in hospital who are seriously ill with the classic symptoms.

A researcher from Durham University who looks to do a lot of modelling has commented on the file saying he thinks they've fucked up the assumptions. 

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assetrichcashpoor

I’ve said before that 4-5 of my colleagues had a nasty bug just after Christmas here in France. Someone else found some links to Italian news sites that listed unusually high numbers of pneumonia cases in late December.

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7 minutes ago, This Time said:

Not a chance. The proportion of positive tests right back when we started testing was way too low for that only 0.37% of tests done up to the 3rd of March were positive and this was in people who you would expect were more likely to have the disease due to symptoms and contact with known infected or recent travel to hot zones. We're only getting 20.5% positive now and that's with only testing people in hospital who are seriously ill with the classic symptoms.

A researcher from Durham University who looks to do a lot of modelling has commented on the file saying he thinks they've fucked up the assumptions. 

Do they test for all known strains of this virus cheers

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11 minutes ago, snaga said:

My money is on emulating Italy, I don't care for these models at all.

I think there is something different about Italy, what I don't know. High pollution, closer physical "personal" space, a tendency to have older relatives at home or be more interactive with them so the older generation infected faster and before isolation measures took place.

I'd say it's still going to be bad, I just don't think it will be the same as Italy.

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16 minutes ago, lid said:

Do they test for all known strains of this virus cheers

Zero chance that the test wouldn't work equally for all strains. There have only been 40 observed point mutations in a 30,000 base genome. 

PCR works by putting your sample in a tiny tube with an enzyme that copies RNA or DNA depending on what you are trying to amplify and two short pieces of nucleic acid sequences that bind to the sequence of interest (primers). When the primers attach to the viral RNA the polymerase copies the section between the primers. If the virus is present in the sample then at the end you'll have a load of copies of that section which you'll see clearly if you run it on a gel.

Primers are roughly 20 bases long so the chance of one of those 40 mutations being in a primer sequence is tiny given the length of the genome but even if there were several mutations in the primer sequence areas the PCR would still work as the match doesn't need to be perfect (you can tell if you've amplified something other than the virus because the size of the product will be all wrong).

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2 minutes ago, gilf said:

I think there is something different about Italy, what I don't know. High pollution, closer physical "personal" space, a tendency to have older relatives at home or be more interactive with them so the older generation infected faster and before isolation measures took place.

I'd say it's still going to be bad, I just don't think it will be the same as Italy.

The area was crawling with Chinks with shuttle flights back and forth to Wuhan. All working in the shoe industry I believe.

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2 minutes ago, gilf said:

I think there is something different about Italy, what I don't know. High pollution, closer physical "personal" space, a tendency to have older relatives at home or be more interactive with them so the older generation infected faster and before isolation measures took place.

I'd say it's still going to be bad, I just don't think it will be the same as Italy.

From what was revealed a  couple of days ago, if representative,  it seems like it has spread through the care home system unchecked and that is the main problem, not even realistic that a lockdown will affect the spread there as very difficult to contain in that environment so overall figures may not trend the way you would expect with the lockdown in place.

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40 minutes ago, This Time said:

Not a chance. The proportion of positive tests right back when we started testing was way too low for that only 0.37% of tests done up to the 3rd of March were positive and this was in people who you would expect were more likely to have the disease due to symptoms and contact with known infected or recent travel to hot zones. We're only getting 20.5% positive now and that's with only testing people in hospital who are seriously ill with the classic symptoms.

A researcher from Durham University who looks to do a lot of modelling has commented on the file saying he thinks they've fucked up the assumptions. 

But how many people did they test at the start ? 

They certainly didn't test the burd at my work or her child. And by all accounts they would show up as negative barely 3 weeks later anyway. They didn't test any of them. But many had extremely similar symptoms to those we are now classing as covid. 

And how many have we tested so far in the UK out of our 70 ish million population ? The numbers are tiny. 

There must be people who provided samples for something back in the autumn that they could maybe test ? Or perhaps they would be defunct by now. I don't know. 

Could just be a huge coincidence but it just seems too perfect a fit. 

 

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10 minutes ago, NTB said:

The area was crawling with Chinks with shuttle flights back and forth to Wuhan. All working in the shoe industry I believe.

Working in the fashion industry, living cheek by jowl so they could still say “made in Italy”. 
I’m convinced (clearly by nothing but personal observation) that this was here in December. I had what I thought  was a horrible cold with a long lasting cough, many colleagues the same, including one hospitalised for pneumonia (perfectly healthy 40 ish year old with no underlying conditions). Heard a GP on Radio 4 say earlier that they would have expected increase in deaths but what if they were put down to seasonal flu? They weren’t testing for Wu-Flu back then.

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55 minutes ago, This Time said:

Not a chance. The proportion of positive tests right back when we started testing was way too low for that only 0.37% of tests done up to the 3rd of March were positive and this was in people who you would expect were more likely to have the disease due to symptoms and contact with known infected or recent travel to hot zones. We're only getting 20.5% positive now and that's with only testing people in hospital who are seriously ill with the classic symptoms.

A researcher from Durham University who looks to do a lot of modelling has commented on the file saying he thinks they've fucked up the assumptions. 

I think at this point we simply do not know how many have had the virus or currently infected. It’s all speculation. Same as it’s all speculation how it will all pan out. We’ll find some answers in due course.

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4 minutes ago, Dipsy said:

Working in the fashion industry, living cheek by jowl so they could still say “made in Italy”. 
I’m convinced (clearly by nothing but personal observation) that this was here in December. I had what I thought  was a horrible cold with a long lasting cough, many colleagues the same, including one hospitalised for pneumonia (perfectly healthy 40 ish year old with no underlying conditions). Heard a GP on Radio 4 say earlier that they would have expected increase in deaths but what if they were put down to seasonal flu? They weren’t testing for Wu-Flu back then.

When this thing was doing the rounds back last year - if they had a time machine and went back and tested them all for covid ? Must have been tens of thousands of people with this bug. 

Would any have come up positive ? If I had to bet my bollocks on it I would have to go with yes. 

Pure conjecture of course unless as I said they have samples they can still test - frozen or whatever. 

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I’m in the camp that a lot of people in the uk have had a strange virus from back in December. Heard lots of anecdotes on here and locally, including my own daughter who was quite ill before Christmas with a bug. She totally lost her sense of taste and smell which she had never experienced before in a virus. She thinks she has had it and lots of other folk do too

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3 minutes ago, Van Lady said:

I’m in the camp that a lot of people in the uk have had a strange virus from back in December. Heard lots of anecdotes on here and locally, including my own daughter who was quite ill before Christmas with a bug. She totally lost her sense of taste and smell which she had never experienced before in a virus. She thinks she has had it and lots of other folk do too

If I think back most years especially if you work in offices there is something "strange" doing the rounds. It's almost standard on an annual basis. 

What sticks out with this year's however is it mirrors what people have been experiencing with covid extremely closely. Even look at the thread on here from back in autumn as proof it's not just selective history. 

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