• Welcome to DOSBODS

    Please consider creating a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

Sign in to follow this  
spygirl

Poker - how skill v luck?

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I was wondering if, using some stats calc i could fleece on line poker players.

I would imagine 90% of online players are using this. You would just be fresh meat for the grinder.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, spygirl said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-40691415

Years ago, i had  chat with victoria coren about this.

I was wondering if, using some stats calc i could fleece on line poker players.

I backed as i was not 100% or 50% the poker hostung sites were honest.

The Brid grandad surely could not have got so far on a little skill and lots of luck.

It`s been done with black jack years ago in casinos well before the internet in it`s current form 

 

Edited by Long time lurking

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Skill trumps luck in the long term, it's no coincidence the same players are always making final tables 

That's not to say the underdog can go on a lucky run now and again every dog has its day and all that 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i used to make a bit of cash playing online poker. The trick was to play around closing time when people get back from the pub half cut and get a few hands in. It was a load of work for not a lot of money though doing it that way and I never really fancied playing high stakes stuff at a table with real people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, TheBlueCat said:

i used to make a bit of cash playing online poker. The trick was to play around closing time when people get back from the pub half cut and get a few hands in. It was a load of work for not a lot of money though doing it that way and I never really fancied playing high stakes stuff at a table with real people.

Knew a bloke who played online professionally for a couple of years. He used to make 200-300 quid a week at it, so as you say, a lot of work for not much money. He said the money was to be made fleecing newbies and the skill was spotting them. Basically what you are saying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I knew someone too a few years ago who reckoned he made good money on online poker. Most gamblers never talk about the losses though... All seems a load of nonsense to me and not much fun either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I won a few quid off some Americans in Dubai Airport. I have the advantage of looking stupid.O.o. And being a mathematician.B|. That's Poker done for me. I'd rather do plumbing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, davidg said:

Knew a bloke who played online professionally for a couple of years. He used to make 200-300 quid a week at it, so as you say, a lot of work for not much money. He said the money was to be made fleecing newbies and the skill was spotting them. Basically what you are saying.

That's about the sum of it. If I played from around 10PM until 1AM and ran 3-4 games at once I'd clear maybe 50 quid on average.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, spunko2010 said:

I knew someone too a few years ago who reckoned he made good money on online poker. Most gamblers never talk about the losses though... All seems a load of nonsense to me and not much fun either.

If you want to know how much money a gambler makes, never ever bother to ask them. The figure they give will only be what they wished they would make.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, blobloblob said:

If you want to know how much money a gambler makes, never ever bother to ask them. The figure they give will only be what they wished they would make.

Gamblers are indeed, rather too optimistic.O.o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I played online a lot before I had the kids and usually go and play live twice a year in a casino.

Started playing online again in May and for last 3 months I have deposited £815 and withdrew £1890, so just over 1k profit. Also visited Vegas for 4 days in June and made a profit for the trip, although a big chunk of that came from Craps.

If it was purely luck the same people wouldn't win over and over

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am sure if someone could create an automated app (to improve your odds), you can play against human players online and beat them consistently. I have no doubt, some gifted IT programmers with access to back end code are doing this right now.

All you need is an edge, and those other players can't see it online. Brainpower - unless you are gifted in some way like Rainmain (I think he was autistic in the high spectrum), and could calculate odds and count cards, is a rare population distribution pattern.

"Luck" can run out (it doesn't exist). But a skill or better, an edge will always win over time.

--

I used to play for fun with no real money at stake with Texas Hold'em - go all in and clean up and see how much I could make as an experiment. If I get one Jack or better, go all in, and some other player couldn't resist because partly it was emotionally cowardly not to. From that I think I turned $2000 into $40,000 in PKR one time (but had to lose $100K+ in the process). I didn't have an edge, and I know that I am not gifted or autistic in the high spectrum, so couldn't beat more seasoned players so no point, there will always be more people better than you, because they do this full time.

There are a few useful documentaries on youtube about online poker players. They had a real good time cleaning up amateurs (making millions of dollars), until the US government outlawed online gambling, which in effect took out 300m+ players and those recreational players that were easy pickings for professional poker players. It is not knowing if you are the patsy - but going into it knowing that you are either a recreational player, or a professional player. I'd say 90% coming into poker don't know the difference.

 

Edited by 201p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's an interesting story. The grandad is 64 years old. Now age might have a positive effect on the outcome. That might have been his edge.

I don't know the average age of the contestants, but I suspect many are in their 20s and 30s.

At 64 your perspective is different, he was wanting to do it for his bucket list, not for the prize money. You may not care if you win or lose, so as the stakes get higher and higher, your nerve erodes and I suspect many of the other players cracked. He was also an experienced player, and stuck to his system no matter the stakes or social media fame outcomes. I also think he probably wasn't distracted by facebook, instagram and twitter messages every 5 seconds. You go all the way man!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, 201p said:

 

All you need is an edge, and those other players can't see it online. Brainpower - unless you are gifted in some way like Rainmain (I think he was autistic in the high spectrum), and could calculate odds and count cards, is a rare population distribution pattern.

I have an uncle who could count cards... but don't the casinos shuffle the decks all the time? He used to win at whatever card games where that was useful but was banned from playing if he won more than a few times.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

According to wiki, card counting is not dependent on memorising the sequence of cards, but it is about recalculating the probability of a card coming out of the deck. This is gives you an edge over someone that isn't counting.

Edited by 201p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Card counting is only useful for Blackjack, as far as I know. You keep a running total of how many high value cards have already come out of the deck (or shoe of decks), and bet, or bet more, when the balance shifts in the player's favour (normally the dealer has an edge).

Apparently it is still possible to make money doing it, but casinos have implemented all manner of rules and strategies to frustrate card counters (e.g. not playing more than halfway down the shoe, banning 'mid-shoe entry' etc.).

I doubt there's good money to be made beating the drunken post-pub poker crowd on a Friday, though you could probably make some pocket money. There is still money to be made exploiting bookmaker and casino sign-up bonuses and offers, though, and I daresay poker sites probably have sign-up bonuses that allow you a few free-roll games or whatever- use them on the after pub crowd for best effect, I guess!

Edit: it is of course necessary to learn the various probabilities of poker to become a good player, but that's not card counting, it just helps with your decision making when it comes to raising, calling or folding.

Edited by Rave

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I used to play online several hours a day for well over five years. Only small stakes but I enjoyed it. Still play in a local league too occasionally and I'm definitely in profit, though we're talking maybe a couple of hundred quid overall.

29 minutes ago, Rave said:

Edit: it is of course necessary to learn the various probabilities of poker to become a good player, but that's not card counting, it just helps with your decision making when it comes to raising, calling or folding.

There are some shortcuts to calculate probability, but I can't remember them now as I've not used them for a while...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.