Why won't house prices increase if we have inflation caused by coronavirus?

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, spygirl said:

If you think the UK economy is housing, then you think the mortgage are the pinnacle.

News this morning.

BoE has *told*, thats told not asked, that banks are not paying dividend or senior staff bonuses.

 

 

How will they keep the talent?

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, spygirl said:

My rough n ready housing rules is - about 20-30% live in social housing, and 50% private property dont have mortgages.

IO BTL is a problem due to the 'IO' bit.

IO, be it it BTL or OO, is a  clusterfuck. Just look at how long its took the boe/FCA to sort out all the OO IO loans. 10 years, ZIRP, and theyve only managed to defuse 50% of loans

The assumption that you can keep remortgaging and remortgaging at advantageous terms is wrong. Borrowers will reach the end of the road as they no longer have the income to service  the loan.

Boe/FCA dotn really care about he IO BTL LL. They are goign down, its that obvious. MOst of the IO BTL are away from the importnant banks, just parked wit the small, dontcare if they blow up banks and fianncial companies, who the BoE dont touch.

IO BTL will result in all the rentals and the OO house being sold.

 

 

 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/775002/EPLS_main_report.pdf

94% LL's own as individuals

4.5 mn households in private rented sector.

50% LL's only own one property.38% between 2 and 4 properties.

Amoutn of LL's with 1 propertry has dropped from 78% to 45% since 2011.

the proportion of landlords with five or more properties increased from 5% to 17% or from 39% to 48% of the sector since 2011

Landlords are, on average, older and less ethnically diverse than the general population10. Most have been landlords for some time.Over half (59%) of landlords are aged 55 years or older. Not surprisingly, given the older age profile, a third (33%) of landlords are retired. The majority (89%) of landlords are White.

 

4% do it as a full time business

4% do it as limited companies.

Almost two thirds (63%) of those who had been a landlord for three years or less had used a mortgage to fund their first rental property compared to three quarters of those who had been a landlord for longer (73% of those who had been a landlord for between four and 10 years, and 75% of those a landlord for 11 or more years).Abouthalf (49%) of those who had been a landlord for three years or lesshad a Buy to Let mortgage to fund their current property/ies. This increased to 58% of those who had been letting for between four and 10years, and 54% for those letting for 11or more years.

Landlords, on average, report a gross rental income of £15,000 per year (before tax and other deductions). For most landlords income from rent makes up two fifths (42%) of their total gross income.

[HolyCow]

15 hours ago, spygirl said:

My 'test' btlers are a couple. Hes a crap plumber, always chasing money but, going by house much his wife says he bring back, not getting much. I think hes still not learned the lesson of avoiding travelling too far for money.

Anyhow, v late to io btl, only buying 1st one 7 8 years ago. Niw have 3.

They have no money - they spend everything they earn. The btl yield about 100/m a ove the mortgage.

I was expecting them to be wiped out in a recession. Looks like hell be wiped out by the virus o the following slowdown.

Hes got to be due 4 months unpaid. I'd imagine some or all if the btls will default.

That's 2.5 earnings, almost 4k/m rental income gone, and 4k if rent n mortgage to find. Fucked.

As far as Airbnb- worse than io btlers

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/airbnb-scam-london

 

 

Won't the Government find a way of pressuring banks to expand payment holidays or change their terms. Already reading in the media that the Government is pressuring banks to give small business loans now even though the banks are saying that many businesses do not meet the requirements. It seems to be that the Government just wants to help everybody as nobody can fail these days. How do you see that playing out?

[spygirl]

24 minutes ago, HolyCow said:

Won't the Government find a way of pressuring banks to expand payment holidays or change their terms. Already reading in the media that the Government is pressuring banks to give small business loans now even though the banks are saying that many businesses do not meet the requirements. It seems to be that the Government just wants to help everybody as nobody can fail these days. How do you see that playing out?

They are asking bans to accommodate some level of payment relief.

Its a pause not a forgiveness.

This is fine, short term, for solvent businesses that employ people.

This is also fine for OO houses. A payment holiday, where 3 months payments are rolled up and shoved on the mortgage is OK.

It wont help Io BTL as they are basically insolvent . Theres no business, no employees. They are just skimming money lent from the banks, paid back to the banks using the rent.

Theres no business; just debt.

 

 

 

 

[HolyCow]

15 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Also worth cosndiering which aspects of inflation will be runnign higher especially non core ie food n fuel

28 million homes in the UK,70% owner occupied,and there are 11mn mortgages including BTL give or take.

The BTL data is really quite alarming when you consider how exposed some of them are to falling rents/non payents and how many of those BTLers may not realsie their family home is in the default chain.

https://www.finder.com/uk/mortgage-statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/775002/EPLS_main_report.pdf

I predict the raising of LHA to help poor landlords  tenants pay off their mortgage stay in their homes. The Government has already done an emergency increase of LHA to cover the bottom 30% of all rentals.

[HolyCow]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/775002/EPLS_main_report.pdf

94% LL's own as individuals

4.5 mn households in private rented sector.

50% LL's only own one property.38% between 2 and 4 properties.

Amoutn of LL's with 1 propertry has dropped from 78% to 45% since 2011.

the proportion of landlords with five or more properties increased from 5% to 17% or from 39% to 48% of the sector since 2011

Landlords are, on average, older and less ethnically diverse than the general population10. Most have been landlords for some time.Over half (59%) of landlords are aged 55 years or older. Not surprisingly, given the older age profile, a third (33%) of landlords are retired. The majority (89%) of landlords are White.

 

4% do it as a full time business

4% do it as limited companies.

Almost two thirds (63%) of those who had been a landlord for three years or less had used a mortgage to fund their first rental property compared to three quarters of those who had been a landlord for longer (73% of those who had been a landlord for between four and 10 years, and 75% of those a landlord for 11 or more years).Abouthalf (49%) of those who had been a landlord for three years or lesshad a Buy to Let mortgage to fund their current property/ies. This increased to 58% of those who had been letting for between four and 10years, and 54% for those letting for 11or more years.

Landlords, on average, report a gross rental income of £15,000 per year (before tax and other deductions). For most landlords income from rent makes up two fifths (42%) of their total gross income.

There must be hundreds of thousands if not millions of landlords who are not on the radar as they don't declare anything. Wasn't there some sort of report from Tower Hamlets that half of the rentals in the borough were not declared (they only found this out because they have one of the most stringent licencing schemes in the country).

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, HolyCow said:

Won't the Government find a way of pressuring banks to expand payment holidays or change their terms. Already reading in the media that the Government is pressuring banks to give small business loans now even though the banks are saying that many businesses do not meet the requirements. It seems to be that the Government just wants to help everybody as nobody can fail these days. How do you see that playing out?

they can jsut jsut repo the BTLers main home and raid the equity.Banks don't give a poop sandwich about mom and pop BTLers.

It''s the old Oscar wilde quote,if you the bank a grand you have a problem.if you owe them a million,they have a problem.Most mom n pop BTL operations haev a fully paid off main home to cushion the banks,they jsut don't know it gnereally

5 hours ago, spygirl said:

They are asking bans to accommodate some level of payment relief.

Its a pause not a forgiveness.

This is fine, short term, for solvent businesses that employ people.

This is also fine for OO houses. A payment holiday, where 3 months payments are rolled up and shoved on the mortgage is OK.

It wont help Io BTL as they are basically insolvent . Theres no business, no employees. They are just skimming money lent from the banks, paid back to the banks using the rent.

Theres no business; just debt.thats not gonna be paid

 

 

 

 

 

addendum

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, HolyCow said:

I predict the raising of LHA to help poor landlords  tenants pay off their mortgage stay in their homes. The Government has already done an emergency increase of LHA to cover the bottom 30% of all rentals.

Thyre not gonna do that.the priorities are changing.fiscal deficits are being run to keep people in food and fuel.keeping a small band of rich,old mainly white people solvent in BTL is back of the queue.read the report I psorted in full.BTLers are mainly older,mainly white.Probably don't live in urban marginals

5 hours ago, HolyCow said:

There must be hundreds of thousands if not millions of landlords who are not on the radar as they don't declare anything. Wasn't there some sort of report from Tower Hamlets that half of the rentals in the borough were not declared (they only found this out because they have one of the most stringent licencing schemes in the country).

theyve linked hmrc and bank recortds.tehre's nowhere to hide unless it's cash.

[Democorruptcy]

On 31/03/2020 at 19:59, Ina said:

How the hell in the bizarre times is anyone going to be able to pay SDLT?

People getting a 3 month mortgage holiday, working from home or could be 2 x 80% wages, no commuting costs, no childcare costs, no spending in pubs or restaurants, no beauty salon, no boutiques, no holidays, some people will be accumulating money. 

[spygirl]

16 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Thyre not gonna do that.the priorities are changing.fiscal deficits are being run to keep people in food and fuel.keeping a small band of rich,old mainly white people solvent in BTL is back of the queue.read the report I psorted in full.BTLers are mainly older,mainly white.Probably don't live in urban marginals

theyve linked hmrc and bank recortds.tehre's nowhere to hide unless it's cash.

Well, thres gold n silver  buried in garden.

https://www.thestar.co.uk/news/gold-and-silver-coins-worth-ps80000-stolen-house-south-yorkshire-636333

The coins are around the same size as a 10 pence piece and stored in small plastic tubes.

 

It's more common than you think esp. With bennies people.

[HolyCow]

51 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Thyre not gonna do that.the priorities are changing.fiscal deficits are being run to keep people in food and fuel.keeping a small band of rich,old mainly white people solvent in BTL is back of the queue.read the report I psorted in full.BTLers are mainly older,mainly white.Probably don't live in urban marginals

theyve linked hmrc and bank recortds.tehre's nowhere to hide unless it's cash.

Hmm. I hope you are right but aren't those typical Tory/Brexit voters who they will want to keep sweet as most young people won't vote Tory in 5 years time if house prices are still out of reach? I just don't see the Tories changing tack. Haven't they just renewed the Term Funding Scheme with billions? 

[sancho panza]

21 minutes ago, HolyCow said:

Hmm. I hope you are right but aren't those typical Tory/Brexit voters who they will want to keep sweet as most young people won't vote Tory in 5 years time if house prices are still out of reach? I just don't see the Tories changing tack. Haven't they just renewed the Term Funding Scheme with billions? 

Boris is an idiot but cummings knwos those BTL people have nowhere elese to go in a first past the post system.CUmmings is a shrewd cookie,Cameron/Gidioit he isn't.

[HolyCow]

15 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Boris is an idiot but cummings knwos those BTL people have nowhere elese to go in a first past the post system.CUmmings is a shrewd cookie,Cameron/Gidioit he isn't.

Yes, he's quite intriguing and presumably not born with a silver spoon in his mouth like Boris/Cameron/Gidiot.

[sancho panza]

15 minutes ago, HolyCow said:

Yes, he's quite intriguing and presumably not born with a silver spoon in his mouth like Boris/Cameron/Gidiot.

The more I see Boris biungling from hsi bunker,the more I think he's all mouth.Hasn't got a clue.But then nor has Cummings re testing for Covid.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, HolyCow said:

Hmm. I hope you are right but aren't those typical Tory/Brexit voters who they will want to keep sweet as most young people won't vote Tory in 5 years time if house prices are still out of reach? I just don't see the Tories changing tack. Haven't they just renewed the Term Funding Scheme with billions? 

Young people get old.

Old people die.

Dead people dont vote *

Even in normal times, 65+ mortality rates means 50% are dead in 10 years time.

The great probate is on in so many areas.

* muzzers might, and claim pension.

 

1 hour ago, HolyCow said:

Hmm. I hope you are right but aren't those typical Tory/Brexit voters who they will want to keep sweet as most young people won't vote Tory in 5 years time if house prices are still out of reach? I just don't see the Tories changing tack. Haven't they just renewed the Term Funding Scheme with billions? 

No.

 

[HolyCow]

25 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

The more I see Boris biungling from hsi bunker,the more I think he's all mouth.Hasn't got a clue.But then nor has Cummings re testing for Covid.

I've just taken a look at his Wikipedia entry. Definitely more interesting than Boris who just seems to have expected everything in his life to naturally fall into place without any real work. I reckon Cummings might even fit well in this forum. Agreed - the testing (or lack of it) has been an absolute shambles. 

[spygirl]

17 hours ago, HolyCow said:

There must be hundreds of thousands if not millions of landlords who are not on the radar as they don't declare anything. Wasn't there some sort of report from Tower Hamlets that half of the rentals in the borough were not declared (they only found this out because they have one of the most stringent licencing schemes in the country).

No.

HMRC have a record of all LLs.

They might think they are off the radar but they are not.

 

[HolyCow]

12 minutes ago, spygirl said:

No.

HMRC have a record of all LLs.

They might think they are off the radar but they are not.

 

All very well HMRC having the info but are they actively chasing them? Probably too much hassle for the amount of money they'd get.

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, HolyCow said:

All very well HMRC having the info but are they actively chasing them? Probably too much hassle for the amount of money they'd get.

Nope.

Id really not cling to that, if you have a rental.

HMRC have 20 years.

Until the tax rules changes on rental offset it was probably that LL might owe linmited money - but should have been filling in a tax return, none the less.

HMRC can go trhu a lon book. andthe land registry and corelate the info.

They can then access ther LL bank account - without him knowing, - and check for regular payments.

They can find out how many properties someone earns, how much money has been borrowed and how much is being paid thru a bank account.

They have run a campaign for the last last 2 years, reminding LL they have to register.

This is standard procedure - the make aware.

LL have now been made aware - thats that box ticked.

Now they check for compliance.

They start sending out letters to LL whove not registered.

And they also start checking the figures for those that have but are not paying enough.

 

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Here's a villa in turkey, last year when I looked around this sort of things was priced about £190/200K

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-76600438.html

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-88750265.html

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-82457726.html

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-77344151.html

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-82626848.html

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-58968672.html

This is what happens when people need to sell and cant

 

Turkey...lots of inflation

 

[RJT1979]

If you look at new additions to rightmove you can see motivated sellers already. New build has not dropped a penny. There is over 50 houses almost complete next to me and they all have sold on them. No way are people completing without a discount. Most will be back on the market in 6 months. They cannot drop prices though to new purchasers as this will make the remaining people about to complete want one too. 

[Popuplights]

Big house next door to my mum. £1m plus. Buyer just dropped out. It's a probate sale. I expect buyer will be back with an offer 75% of asking. I would.

[Boon]

It is interesting looking at Rightmove.

Not much is going on at the moment.... listing volumes 90% down at least I reckon.

The ones that are going on are new builds, perhaps at cheaper prices.

Others coming on are sales that have fallen through, would expect there to be plenty of these in the coming weeks. It is quite funny to see some of these sellers try and get the same price as the last time. 

What might have looked cheap last year suddenly does not any more, hopefully every buyer in the market senses price cuts.