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UK Govt Coronavirus Response: Sceptics Thread


sancho panza

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38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Worth remembering that the people hiding Anne Frank were breaking the law.....hattip someone on twitter

 

Sturgeon and Boris should hang for this. Fucken scum.

28 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am a bit shocked by that, don't know what to say.

Its starting to be an every day occurrence.

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Talking Monkey
43 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

id like to have seen them try that in a house say full of big blokes. Wouldnt have been so gung ho then i reckon.

Or a house with one really really hard northern bloke

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13 hours ago, leonardratso said:

id like to have seen them try that in a house say full of big blokes. Wouldnt have been so gung ho then i reckon.

That's the issue,as I understand it,they've got no warrant for the house(Scottish law may be different and in england police may gain rights if you invite them in-I don't know-not a lawyer),have therefore been invited in and then asked to leave.........................the first copper jsut comes across as an out and out bully.

Over the years I've seen some immensely brave coppers but I've also seena few try and duck out of dealing with some clearly 'likely problematic' mental health cases and try and leave me in the back with them on my own.And strangely it's not the 'size of the dog in the fight' as some of the tiny females have more guts than some bigger males.

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Taiwan 7 dead

Japan 150 dead

Australia 900 dead

South Korea 1100 dead

UK 82'000 dead

We are a fucking island..  We are starting testing at borders this week.. 1 fucking year after the virus started!!

I'm just going to keep saying fuck until this government are sacked.. or better arrested..

FUCK

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1 hour ago, macca said:

Taiwan 7 dead

Japan 150 dead

Australia 900 dead

South Korea 1100 dead

UK 82'000 dead

We are a fucking island..  We are starting testing at borders this week.. 1 fucking year after the virus started!!

I'm just going to keep saying fuck until this government are sacked.. or better arrested..

FUCK

Sobering, isn't it.

 

And yet no one on the left will ever admit that this is a direct result of:

i) open borders

ii) mass immigration increasing population density and human movement cross border

iii) benefit culture creating an unfit population

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6 hours ago, macca said:

Taiwan 7 dead

Japan 150 dead

Australia 900 dead

South Korea 1100 dead

UK 82'000 dead

We are a fucking island..  We are starting testing at borders this week.. 1 fucking year after the virus started!!

I'm just going to keep saying fuck until this government are sacked.. or better arrested..

 

Good point, although Japan has 4000 dead.

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Chewing Grass

You are all forgetting how differently each country counts the dead and how many were infected in hospitals.

Edit:- Plus a lot of those countries don't put their Elderly (nearly dead) in private concentration camps.

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6 hours ago, macca said:

Taiwan 7 dead

Japan 150 dead

Australia 900 dead

South Korea 1100 dead

UK 82'000 dead

We are a fucking island..  We are starting testing at borders this week.. 1 fucking year after the virus started!!

I'm just going to keep saying fuck until this government are sacked.. or better arrested..

FUCK

But look on the bright side, flu deaths are down 98% in the UK thats approx 80,000 lives saved. Makes me proud to be British.

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I work for a company that take Health and safety as the bible

I know from experience if i was to leave a Gas valve open by accident and cause an explosion at work, I would be held to account for deaths related to my negligence,, 1 dead person would see me in prison for several years.

So why can Boris leave a fucking airport open allowing 21 million people to land (Heathrow)

Then 85'000 people die.. And there is no investigation and he keeps his job? 

Wheres his prison sentence?

Am i missing something? 

There seems to be a 2 tier system in law enforcement where he can kill 85'000 and Tory fans whoop and cheer what a funny, floppy hair genius he is for dishing out tax payers debt..

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21 hours ago, macca said:

Am i missing something? 

There seems to be a 2 tier system in law enforcement where he can kill 85'000 and Tory fans whoop and cheer what a funny, floppy hair genius he is for dishing out tax payers debt..

yeah,he's in charge of the polcie and they're too busy nicking middle aged women sitting on park benches drinking tea to do what you ask.

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'Senior NHS Doctor' pulls apart the data on deaths and admissions as well as the BBC claim that there 'are many younger people suffering with covid than in the Spring..

Turns out the BBC has been taking liberties with the truth and aslo that the govt managed the unique feat of locking down after the peak.......again.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/2021/01/15/latest-news-255/#a-senior-doctor-writes

A Senior Doctor Writes…

There follows a guest post by the senior doctor who contributes weekly updates on the state of the NHS to Lockdown Sceptics.

Graph 1 shows the daily admission figures from the community for English regions expressed as a three-day moving average to smooth out the curves. It is clear that for the last week, admissions from the community in London, East England and the South East have been falling – very encouraging.

However, there have been recent uptrends in the Midlands and the North West. The falling rate in London and the South East is consistent with the ZOE app data which showed a downtrend in symptomatic people from about December 31st. Readers should note that the current lockdown began on January 6th. By that point admissions had peaked and were already on the downward slope. The effect (if any) of lockdown on hospital admissions will not be observable until at least January 16th. Nevertheless, the reduction in hospital admissions is being reported in the mainstream media as being a consequence of lockdown – I don’t think that view is supported by the evidence.

Screenshot-2021-01-15-at-04.25.22-1024x8

Next, the overall inpatient situation on Graph 2. Despite falling admissions from the community, the overall number of Covid patients in London remains flat. How can this be? I will explain later with data from the monthly summary packet.

Screenshot-2021-01-15-at-04.26.26-1024x7

Finally, on the daily figures, the ICU bed occupancy data in Graph 3. This is the graphic of most concern in my opinion. ICU occupancy tends to lag inpatient admission by two to three days – this is the length of time for a patient to become ill enough to require intensive care according to the ICNARC ICU audit. Hence falling admissions do not immediately translate into falling ICU numbers. The angle of slope in London in particular is still on an upward trend. Some of this may be because London Hospitals are soaking up ICU admissions from the South East region, where local hospital capacity has been exceeded. ICU patients tend to stay a long time, so these numbers take a while to subside when the peak is reached. As far as ICU numbers are concerned the peak does not look like it has arrived yet in any English region. In particular the ICU numbers are still on an upward

Screenshot-2021-01-15-at-04.27.12-1024x8

The monthly data packet contains a lot of information which I will comment on in the next few days. It has been illuminating in shedding light on several questions which were troubling me. I propose to address just two this evening.

Firstly, the issue of discharging Covid patients from Hospital. Discharging elderly patients in winter is an annual problem. Patients who cannot be discharged are unkindly referred to as “bed blockers”. The usual reasons are that they are too frail to be sent home alone if there is no-one to look after them, or not well enough to be accepted back by a care home. This problem is worsened by care homes being reluctant to accept Covid patients in view of what happened in the spring, when large numbers of patients with Covid were discharged into care homes causing several outbreaks of infection. An article in the Financial Times recently highlighted that insurers of care homes were reluctant to cover them for outbreaks of COVID-19 and that this was delaying hospital discharges.

Graph 4 shows the effect that delayed discharge has on total bed occupancy. This is a complicated compound graph with two separate Y axes, so I will explain what it means. First, consider the first part of the X axis Dec 1st to Dec 9th. During this time, the combined daily admissions and hospital Covid diagnoses depicted in the vertical bars was roughly equal to the daily discharges on the blue line (left hand Y axis). Hence the total number of Covid inpatients on the yellow line was roughly stable.

Screenshot-2021-01-15-at-04.27.57-1024x7

From December 10th onwards, daily admissions started to exceed discharges and this trend has worsened as the graph proceeds through December into January. As a consequence, the total number of inpatients on the yellow line (right hand Y axis) continues to rise. Readers should note that the monthly figures are only presented up to January 6th, so as of this data packet the admissions downturn on January 7th is not yet visible.

This is clearly a major problem. Although admissions may be falling, the total number of inpatients is still rising because of failure to discharge. In London, the Nightingale hospital has reopened for ‘step down’ patients (not ICU patients as in the spring). It remains to be seen how successful that will be, bearing in mind that shortage of staff (not bed capacity) was the rate-limiting problem in the spring. Elsewhere, some imaginative and intelligent steps have been taken such as utilising spare hotel capacity to place convalescent patients – an affordable and practical solution, often used in the United States.

Now here is one devil. We know hospital discharge is always a problem in the winter. It was entirely predictable that this would be an issue in a ‘second surge’ of COVID-19. A predictable risk, with no plan to deal with it. I wonder why there was no plan? And who is taking the responsibility for the lack of one?

Next, I turn to the issue of age stratification of Covid patients. A few days ago, I saw an article on the BBC news by the reporter Hugh Pym. He visited Croydon University Hospital and reported that there were “many more younger patients” affected by Covid in the winter than in the spring. The monthly data packet does contain age stratified figures for hospital admissions. I thought I should examine these.

First, I looked at the data for England as a whole. It is recorded that 37% of the Covid patients admitted from March 20th to April 30th were aged between 18 and 64. Between November 27th and Jan 6th, 39% of patients were in this younger age bracket – a very modest increase and certainly not “many more” younger patients.

The age bracket 18-64 is quite wide and it could be possible that the distribution is skewed to the younger part of that group. Therefore, I looked at the reported death statistics across the spring and the winter up to Jan 1st 2021, which are much more clearly age stratified. Between March and May 2020 there were 45,511 reported deaths from Covid, of which 3,020 were aged between 0 and 59 years (6.64%). In the period November to January 1st, there were 20,370 deaths of which 1,073 were registered as COVID deaths – 5.26%. So, in fact there were proportionally fewer Covid deaths in the younger age group in the winter than in the spring reported up to January 1st.

Bearing in mind that death registration can lag date of death by up to two weeks, I looked at the ICNARC ICU audit data comparing cohorts of patients admitted up to August 31st and after September 1st till January 6th. Age at admission to ICU was actually older in winter than spring: Mean average 60.2 years in the winter, median 62 years, compared to a mean of 57.8 and a median 59 of years in the spring.

How can we explain this discrepancy? There do not appear to be “many more” younger patients suffering from Covid in hospital this winter. In fact, the official figures suggest that there are proportionally fewer very sick younger patients and fewer deaths in this age group than in the spring. If that is correct, why did Hugh Pym report precisely the opposite on the national news?

Perhaps someone from the BBC could contact Lockdown Sceptics to explain what I’m missing in this data? Surely, the lavishly taxpayer funded BBC, with hordes of researchers, fact checkers and expensive journalists, must be more accurate in its interpretation of the data than one private individual with a laptop and an internet connection. Maybe they have access to more up to date information than I can see. I would be most grateful to be shown the errors in my calculations and will be happy to be corrected if I have misinterpreted the figures.

Finally, having looked at the recent past (monthly data summary) and the present (or as close to it as we are permitted to see by the daily figures), I will turn to the future.

The drop off in community symptoms reported on the ZOE app and reflected in the drop in hospital admissions in London, the South East and East of England is certainly welcome. However, it begs the question of why further lockdown restrictions were necessary on January 6th when the community transmission appeared already to have peaked.

On the other hand, the rise in admissions in the Midlands and the North West is of concern. In particular, the rising trend in ICU admissions is worrying. These are likely to continue to rise for several days at least. An issue that may not be obvious to the non-medical reader is that there are substantial differences between the hospital geography of London and the rest of the UK. A densely populated metropolis like London has several large hospitals in close proximity to each other, all with substantial surge capacity to deal with peaks of excessive demand. Mutual support between hospitals is relatively easy to arrange and co-ordinate, so patients can be transferred between hospitals to manage areas of high stress.

Other regions of England are not so fortunate. Even the larger urban areas of the Midlands and Greater Manchester have fewer large hospitals than London. Transfer of patients between hospitals is more problematic. ICU capacity in particular is not rapidly expandable as it is in the capital and surge resilience, particularly in more rural areas, is lower. This could be a serious problem in the coming days. I hope NHS England has a workable plan in place, but I smell sulphur.

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6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

'Senior NHS Doctor' pulls apart the data on deaths and admissions as well as the BBC claim that there 'are many younger people suffering with covid than in the Spring..

Turns out the BBC has been taking liberties with the truth and aslo that the govt managed the unique feat of locking down after the peak.......again.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/2021/01/15/latest-news-255/#a-senior-doctor-writes

A Senior Doctor Writes…

There follows a guest post by the senior doctor who contributes weekly updates on the state of the NHS to Lockdown Sceptics.

Graph 1 shows the daily admission figures from the community for English regions expressed as a three-day moving average to smooth out the curves. It is clear that for the last week, admissions from the community in London, East England and the South East have been falling – very encouraging.

However, there have been recent uptrends in the Midlands and the North West. The falling rate in London and the South East is consistent with the ZOE app data which showed a downtrend in symptomatic people from about December 31st. Readers should note that the current lockdown began on January 6th. By that point admissions had peaked and were already on the downward slope. The effect (if any) of lockdown on hospital admissions will not be observable until at least January 16th. Nevertheless, the reduction in hospital admissions is being reported in the mainstream media as being a consequence of lockdown – I don’t think that view is supported by the evidence.

Screenshot-2021-01-15-at-04.25.22-1024x8

Next, the overall inpatient situation on Graph 2. Despite falling admissions from the community, the overall number of Covid patients in London remains flat. How can this be? I will explain later with data from the monthly summary packet.

Screenshot-2021-01-15-at-04.26.26-1024x7

Finally, on the daily figures, the ICU bed occupancy data in Graph 3. This is the graphic of most concern in my opinion. ICU occupancy tends to lag inpatient admission by two to three days – this is the length of time for a patient to become ill enough to require intensive care according to the ICNARC ICU audit. Hence falling admissions do not immediately translate into falling ICU numbers. The angle of slope in London in particular is still on an upward trend. Some of this may be because London Hospitals are soaking up ICU admissions from the South East region, where local hospital capacity has been exceeded. ICU patients tend to stay a long time, so these numbers take a while to subside when the peak is reached. As far as ICU numbers are concerned the peak does not look like it has arrived yet in any English region. In particular the ICU numbers are still on an upward

Screenshot-2021-01-15-at-04.27.12-1024x8

The monthly data packet contains a lot of information which I will comment on in the next few days. It has been illuminating in shedding light on several questions which were troubling me. I propose to address just two this evening.

Firstly, the issue of discharging Covid patients from Hospital. Discharging elderly patients in winter is an annual problem. Patients who cannot be discharged are unkindly referred to as “bed blockers”. The usual reasons are that they are too frail to be sent home alone if there is no-one to look after them, or not well enough to be accepted back by a care home. This problem is worsened by care homes being reluctant to accept Covid patients in view of what happened in the spring, when large numbers of patients with Covid were discharged into care homes causing several outbreaks of infection. An article in the Financial Times recently highlighted that insurers of care homes were reluctant to cover them for outbreaks of COVID-19 and that this was delaying hospital discharges.

Graph 4 shows the effect that delayed discharge has on total bed occupancy. This is a complicated compound graph with two separate Y axes, so I will explain what it means. First, consider the first part of the X axis Dec 1st to Dec 9th. During this time, the combined daily admissions and hospital Covid diagnoses depicted in the vertical bars was roughly equal to the daily discharges on the blue line (left hand Y axis). Hence the total number of Covid inpatients on the yellow line was roughly stable.

Screenshot-2021-01-15-at-04.27.57-1024x7

From December 10th onwards, daily admissions started to exceed discharges and this trend has worsened as the graph proceeds through December into January. As a consequence, the total number of inpatients on the yellow line (right hand Y axis) continues to rise. Readers should note that the monthly figures are only presented up to January 6th, so as of this data packet the admissions downturn on January 7th is not yet visible.

This is clearly a major problem. Although admissions may be falling, the total number of inpatients is still rising because of failure to discharge. In London, the Nightingale hospital has reopened for ‘step down’ patients (not ICU patients as in the spring). It remains to be seen how successful that will be, bearing in mind that shortage of staff (not bed capacity) was the rate-limiting problem in the spring. Elsewhere, some imaginative and intelligent steps have been taken such as utilising spare hotel capacity to place convalescent patients – an affordable and practical solution, often used in the United States.

Now here is one devil. We know hospital discharge is always a problem in the winter. It was entirely predictable that this would be an issue in a ‘second surge’ of COVID-19. A predictable risk, with no plan to deal with it. I wonder why there was no plan? And who is taking the responsibility for the lack of one?

Next, I turn to the issue of age stratification of Covid patients. A few days ago, I saw an article on the BBC news by the reporter Hugh Pym. He visited Croydon University Hospital and reported that there were “many more younger patients” affected by Covid in the winter than in the spring. The monthly data packet does contain age stratified figures for hospital admissions. I thought I should examine these.

First, I looked at the data for England as a whole. It is recorded that 37% of the Covid patients admitted from March 20th to April 30th were aged between 18 and 64. Between November 27th and Jan 6th, 39% of patients were in this younger age bracket – a very modest increase and certainly not “many more” younger patients.

The age bracket 18-64 is quite wide and it could be possible that the distribution is skewed to the younger part of that group. Therefore, I looked at the reported death statistics across the spring and the winter up to Jan 1st 2021, which are much more clearly age stratified. Between March and May 2020 there were 45,511 reported deaths from Covid, of which 3,020 were aged between 0 and 59 years (6.64%). In the period November to January 1st, there were 20,370 deaths of which 1,073 were registered as COVID deaths – 5.26%. So, in fact there were proportionally fewer Covid deaths in the younger age group in the winter than in the spring reported up to January 1st.

Bearing in mind that death registration can lag date of death by up to two weeks, I looked at the ICNARC ICU audit data comparing cohorts of patients admitted up to August 31st and after September 1st till January 6th. Age at admission to ICU was actually older in winter than spring: Mean average 60.2 years in the winter, median 62 years, compared to a mean of 57.8 and a median 59 of years in the spring.

How can we explain this discrepancy? There do not appear to be “many more” younger patients suffering from Covid in hospital this winter. In fact, the official figures suggest that there are proportionally fewer very sick younger patients and fewer deaths in this age group than in the spring. If that is correct, why did Hugh Pym report precisely the opposite on the national news?

Perhaps someone from the BBC could contact Lockdown Sceptics to explain what I’m missing in this data? Surely, the lavishly taxpayer funded BBC, with hordes of researchers, fact checkers and expensive journalists, must be more accurate in its interpretation of the data than one private individual with a laptop and an internet connection. Maybe they have access to more up to date information than I can see. I would be most grateful to be shown the errors in my calculations and will be happy to be corrected if I have misinterpreted the figures.

Finally, having looked at the recent past (monthly data summary) and the present (or as close to it as we are permitted to see by the daily figures), I will turn to the future.

The drop off in community symptoms reported on the ZOE app and reflected in the drop in hospital admissions in London, the South East and East of England is certainly welcome. However, it begs the question of why further lockdown restrictions were necessary on January 6th when the community transmission appeared already to have peaked.

On the other hand, the rise in admissions in the Midlands and the North West is of concern. In particular, the rising trend in ICU admissions is worrying. These are likely to continue to rise for several days at least. An issue that may not be obvious to the non-medical reader is that there are substantial differences between the hospital geography of London and the rest of the UK. A densely populated metropolis like London has several large hospitals in close proximity to each other, all with substantial surge capacity to deal with peaks of excessive demand. Mutual support between hospitals is relatively easy to arrange and co-ordinate, so patients can be transferred between hospitals to manage areas of high stress.

Other regions of England are not so fortunate. Even the larger urban areas of the Midlands and Greater Manchester have fewer large hospitals than London. Transfer of patients between hospitals is more problematic. ICU capacity in particular is not rapidly expandable as it is in the capital and surge resilience, particularly in more rural areas, is lower. This could be a serious problem in the coming days. I hope NHS England has a workable plan in place, but I smell sulphur.

As per the distinct lack of evidence for an omnipotent beardy man floating on a cloud, one could show this to large sections of the populace and be met with screams of heresy.

The only truth is ones own. Whether or not your 'truth' 'wins' is nothing to do with 'truth' but whether your 'truth' is superior in dissemination (and, hence, numbers) to other 'truths'.

Currently, this truth is not superior. 

Mark Twain, springs to mind. It is easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled.

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17 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Does anyone think we are nearing the end game now? A few more people appear to be questioning the narrative lately.

I think so, R rate is down (i know the R rate is bollocks) .... neoliberals have got their man in the Whitehouse ... theyve poured plenty of trillions in to the global economy ... and if they dont open up the world again soon many wont exist.

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7 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

As per the distinct lack of evidence for an omnipotent beardy man floating on a cloud, one could show this to large sections of the populace and be met with screams of heresy.

The only truth is ones own. Whether or not your 'truth' 'wins' is nothing to do with 'truth' but whether your 'truth' is superior in dissemination (and, hence, numbers) to other 'truths'.

Currently, this truth is not superior. 

Mark Twain, springs to mind. It is easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled.

I like Twain.he had some great quotes.I contribute to this thread for my sanity.I largely agree with him.Bozza,Witty etc won't be admitting they got it worng any time soon.

5 hours ago, Popuplights said:

Does anyone think we are nearing the end game now? A few more people appear to be questioning the narrative lately.

At my work,defintiely a lot more sceptics than 6 months ago, and even then there was a number of sceptics.But then we work in situations where we're sued to dealing with death.I think within the NHS the levels of scepticsim re lockdown have defintiely increased.

AMongst the population,most improtantly,Mrs P has finally understood how the MSM twists the stats and sees stright through it now.

Rest of the population the word is slowly spreading I think.We're a long way from herd enlightenment.

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

wow,impressive effort.Seems high to be honest.There's been 517 deaths from covid in Norway.

'Norwegian officials said 23 people had died in the country a short time after receiving their first dose of the vaccine. Of those deaths, 13 have been autopsied, with the results suggesting that common side effects may have contributed to severe reactions in frail, elderly people, according to the Norwegian Medicines Agency.'

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A friend, late sixties, has spent the last nine months being unable to see her father, a resident in a care home. She has been waving to him through the window, but because of his dementia, he couldn't understand why she wouldn't come in and give him a hug.

She has been in agonies about it, but is someone who will always stick to the rules, and follow official advice. She's not a close friend, so I haven't been rocking the boat, as I didn't want to add to her distress. I can't imagine it would have changed her mind whatever I had said.

Her father died last week, and now I'm tying myself in knots over whether I should have been more objectionable ... but then her father was genuinely in a vulnerable group, and if he had caught it, there's a fair chance it would have killed him. There would have been ways to minimise risk, though.

She's not angry at all about the government restrictions, and how they have kept her away from her dad, just seeing them as necessary ... but I am, and the whole thing is unutterably sad. There's no way I would want to have a discussion now about policies, in her presence.

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