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Has Coronavirus officially killed the housing market?


Post-Covid, what 3 changes are you going to try to make? (max 3)  

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Anyone that had a 20% deposit before prices halved

Update on my landlords effort to sell his house with me in it... So been on market since December and second open day today. Supposed to be 5 viewings but two cancelled. So 5 viewings in over two

I've just spent a while browsing the 118 forums since my previous post.  Tenants not paying, tenants already fucked off, not a registered business, mortgage company doesnt want to know, how will

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sleepwello'nights
10 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

'Kinell.

I thought £450k as that's where similar have bubbled up to in Cornwall coastal towns.

Maybe this madness won't end for some time yet then as that suggests Cornwall has a way to go.

Makes our new house in Cornwall look a real bargain. Plus we've probably had more wind and rain :Beer: 

Edited by sleepwello'nights
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Frank Hovis
11 hours ago, maynardgravy said:

Still no offers on my landlord's gaff. He won't drop the price under 600k. We'll see.

Mate has had his flat in Islington valued by EA today. 80k under what he paid for it in 2011!!!! He is utterly shocked, as was I to be honest. 

London is very much creaking. 

Good.

That's what we've been predicting with all the London equity pouring out to the coast and countryside but whilst everything remains at "asking prices" the reality remains hidden.

 

10 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Makes our new house in Cornwall look a real bargain. Plus we've probably had more wind and rain :Beer: 

Welcome to civilisation and do remember to put at the top of your shopping list: a decent dehumidifer.

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Funn3r
14 hours ago, maynardgravy said:

Still no offers on my landlord's gaff. He won't drop the price under 600k. We'll see.

Mate has had his flat in Islington valued by EA today. 80k under what he paid for it in 2011!!!! He is utterly shocked, as was I to be honest. 

London is very much creaking. 

Fingers crossed the SE will follow. It traditionally does, unless the London leavers have just retreated a few miles to somewhere that is nicer to work from home but still can get to the office when necessary.

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maynardgravy
36 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Fingers crossed the SE will follow. It traditionally does, unless the London leavers have just retreated a few miles to somewhere that is nicer to work from home but still can get to the office when necessary.

I think you and @Frank Hovis have a point, but if this anecdote is reflected across London then the point is that many will find they can't use the leverage they thought they had. It may be that the horse has bolted. 

p.s. I've heard a similar story about a couple in canary warf, which is an area that it totally shafted.

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Austin Allegro
17 hours ago, maynardgravy said:

Still no offers on my landlord's gaff. He won't drop the price under 600k. We'll see.

Mate has had his flat in Islington valued by EA today. 80k under what he paid for it in 2011!!!! He is utterly shocked, as was I to be honest. 

London is very much creaking. 

Tell him not to give it away for less than it's worth, as the right buyer is out there. Make sure he has painted everything grey and put lots of 'Live, Laugh, Love' posters and big clocks on the walls. Huggzzzzzz!

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ashestoashes
10 hours ago, maynardgravy said:

p.s. I've heard a similar story about a couple in canary warf, which is an area that it totally shafted.

there was a story a week ago about a poor homeowner who couldn't afford to feed her dog and was catching seals on the banks of the Thames near Canary Wharf

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maynardgravy
1 minute ago, ashestoashes said:

there was a story a week ago about a poor homeowner who couldn't afford to feed her dog and was catching seals on the banks of the Thames near Canary Wharf

...or DROP THE PRICE!

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ccc
On 06/04/2021 at 22:13, maynardgravy said:

Still no offers on my landlord's gaff. He won't drop the price under 600k. We'll see.

Mate has had his flat in Islington valued by EA today. 80k under what he paid for it in 2011!!!! He is utterly shocked, as was I to be honest. 

London is very much creaking. 

I wonder if we are seeing similar to what happened post 2008 ? 

Places like Edinburgh and Belfast are nuts right now. 

Who fucking knows. 

All appears very "crack up boom" ish.

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wherebee
18 hours ago, maynardgravy said:

I think you and @Frank Hovis have a point, but if this anecdote is reflected across London then the point is that many will find they can't use the leverage they thought they had. It may be that the horse has bolted. 

p.s. I've heard a similar story about a couple in canary warf, which is an area that it totally shafted.

That'll be a lot of pissed of singaporeans and hong kongers then.  Although I suspect when Hong Kong falls and there is an influx of hardworking, nice, clever refugees, they'll be happy to live in CW.  It's better than most of Hong Kong in terms of apartment sizes and outdoor spaces.

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Hopeful
22 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

Good.

That's what we've been predicting with all the London equity pouring out to the coast and countryside but whilst everything remains at "asking prices" the reality remains hidden.

 

Welcome to civilisation and do remember to put at the top of your shopping list: a decent dehumidifer.

 

Last year properties were stagnant on the market in my area and prices were falling

Now, prices are above their last peak and properties are sold as soon as advertised, and mainly to cash buyers those with no chain as both local agents* will only do viewings if the purchaser can demonstrate they can proceed.

Even a notoriously over-priced property that has been on the market for 7 years has now sold.

People fleeing Covid infested London

 

*The two agents have made a killing from the local market over the years, re-selling the same properties over and over

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Frank Hovis
29 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

 

Last year properties were stagnant on the market in my area and prices were falling

Now, prices are above their last peak and properties are sold as soon as advertised, and mainly to cash buyers those with no chain as both local agents* will only do viewings if the purchaser can demonstrate they can proceed.

Even a notoriously over-priced property that has been on the market for 7 years has now sold.

People fleeing Covid infested London

 

*The two agents have made a killing from the local market over the years, re-selling the same properties over and over

Ditto.

I mentioned a couple trying to buy with a budget of £210k and they have now bought a flat rather than move inland. I genuinely remember when flats were £15k and still not selling.

I think this has a way to go yet but I struggle to see how the current prices can be supported in the long term.

When you have £200k for a flat in somewhere where work is seasonal and low paid with £18k a typical wage then the connection with local wages is gone so there is no support there.

HPI IMO will not be seen at previous levels again this side of a crash so there will be no more free equity money sloshing about and so no greater fool around to buy in ten years' time.

Working from home full time will, again IMO, revert to being a minority occupation for IT and the self-employed so there won't be London salaries flowing in.

There will be support in a section of the market that works as holiday lets as they generate an income but I think that will be blown away as the mother of all crashes descends upon coastal towns and villages when the current buyers find they have no one to which to sell.

I think peak in one year, stagnation for ten, then crash.

Maybe it's wishful thinking but I would say that Covid and lockdown have caused a lot of people to make bad decisions owing to their isolation and paying a fortune for bang average houses in an area where it rains a lot, the sea is cold, and it's rarely hot is the biggest of those.

I've just had a gander at Rightmove to see what £625k can get you if you don't aspire to a three bed bungalow in Anglesey.

Well this villa with a private heated pool isn't too shabby.

Though you do have to pay £25k more at £650k.

139046_1503_IMG_24_0000.jpg

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/68397017?currencyCode=GBP#/

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Hopeful
25 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Ditto.

I mentioned a couple trying to buy with a budget of £210k and they have now bought a flat rather than move inland. I genuinely remember when flats were £15k and still not selling.

I think this has a way to go yet but I struggle to see how the current prices can be supported in the long term.

When you have £200k for a flat in somewhere where work is seasonal and low paid with £18k a typical wage then the connection with local wages is gone so there is no support there.

HPI IMO will not be seen at previous levels again this side of a crash so there will be no more free equity money sloshing about and so no greater fool around to buy in ten years' time.

Working from home full time will, again IMO, revert to being a minority occupation for IT and the self-employed so there won't be London salaries flowing in.

There will be support in a section of the market that works as holiday lets as they generate an income but I think that will be blown away as the mother of all crashes descends upon coastal towns and villages when the current buyers find they have no one to which to sell.

I think peak in one year, stagnation for ten, then crash.

Maybe it's wishful thinking but I would say that Covid and lockdown have caused a lot of people to make bad decisions owing to their isolation and paying a fortune for bang average houses in an area where it rains a lot, the sea is cold, and it's rarely hot is the biggest of those.

I've just had a gander at Rightmove to see what £625k can get you if you don't aspire to a three bed bungalow in Anglesey.

Well this villa with a private heated pool isn't too shabby.

Though you do have to pay £25k more at £650k.

139046_1503_IMG_24_0000.jpg

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/68397017?currencyCode=GBP#/

 

On your projections, I might be able to afford a property in my area when I'm 70 xD

Edited by Hopeful
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Bear Hug
Just now, Hopeful said:

 

On your projections, I might be able to afford a property in my area when I'm 70 xD

Me too! Likely to be land, 6ft by 2ft or so. 

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Democorruptcy
9 hours ago, ccc said:

I wonder if we are seeing similar to what happened post 2008 ? 

Places like Edinburgh and Belfast are nuts right now. 

Who fucking knows. 

All appears very "crack up boom" ish.

What is going to cause the Lehman moment credit crunch?

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Frank Hovis
2 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

 

On your projections, I might be able to afford a property in my area when I'm 70 xD

 

As I said the timing is maybe wishful thinking on my part because I want to buy somewhere really nice when I'm 65 and take my pensions having done a lot of traveling in the meantime; current go nowhere lockdown excepted.

Though I do expect a massive crash down here, if not nationally, because of the sheer lack of local props for the market.

There will be no 2008-stylee dip and recover; it will just sink.

Assuming I can still afford to then I will buy the bigger house at around 65 crash or no crash; it just means a bigger paper loss versus staying where I am.

And I'm clear with what I want so if that huge crash does happen and I can suddenly afford some twenty bed country estate I wouldn't anyway be buying it because that's far too big.

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eight
1 hour ago, Hopeful said:

People fleeing Covid infested London

Covid infested London, earlier.

map.thumb.jpg.08477bc8af170264efee783b44d97044.jpg

24 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

 

On your projections, I might be able to afford a property in my area when I'm 70 xD

The same year you definitely die! So unlucky.....

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sleepwello'nights
50 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Though I do expect a massive crash down here, if not nationally, because of the sheer lack of local props for the market.

There will be no 2008-stylee dip and recover; it will just sink.

 

Do you really think there is a politician or political party brave enough to let a crash happen. 

I go with a long plateau in nominal terms with inflation taking the sting out of  current values.

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Frank Hovis
1 minute ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Do you really think there is a politician or political party brave enough to let a crash happen. 

I go with a long plateau in nominal terms with inflation taking the sting out of  current values.

 

I'm not talking about a nationwide crash and I agree with there being a political will to stop that; although ultimately that won't be enough.

I am suggesting a localised crash which will be allowed to happen as it was in NI in 2008.  House prices were at half of their 2008 levels in 2015.  @JoeDavola has referred to this a few times.

What I am saying is that the yellow SW line will replicate that NI line though I am not saying that the crash will occur as quickly.

Big climb in 2020, 2021 and to peak in 2022; slow decline accelerating over ten years to crash levels.

 

UK-Ireland-Index.png

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JoeDavola
8 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I'm not talking about a nationwide crash and I agree with there being a political will to stop that; although ultimately that won't be enough.

I am suggesting a localised crash which will be allowed to happen as it was in NI in 2008.  House prices were at half of their 2008 levels in 2015.  @JoeDavola has referred to this a few times.

What I am saying is that the yellow SW line will replicate that NI line though I am not saying that the crash will occur as quickly.

Big climb in 2020, 2021 and to peak in 2022; slow decline accelerating over ten years to crash levels.

 

UK-Ireland-Index.png

Out of interest why peaking in 2022 - is how long your guessing the free covid money and denial of long term economic damage going to last?

 Another interesting thing is there was a ‘dead cat bounce’ 2-ish years into the NI crash followed by of course further falls. 

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Frank Hovis
2 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Out of interest why peaking in 2022 - is how long your guessing the free covid money and denial of long term economic damage going to last?

 Another interesting thing is there was a ‘dead cat bounce’ 2-ish years into the NI crash followed by of course further falls. 

The end of widescale working from home: Companies realising that they are really suffering through having their staff, especially senior staff who are paying these top prices, working from home and ordering them back into the office for most of the week.

That then reverses the flow of housing equity back into the SE as people start to move back up into commutable distance.

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maynardgravy
3 hours ago, wherebee said:

That'll be a lot of pissed of singaporeans and hong kongers then.  Although I suspect when Hong Kong falls and there is an influx of hardworking, nice, clever refugees, they'll be happy to live in CW.  It's better than most of Hong Kong in terms of apartment sizes and outdoor spaces.

There may be.

It's a bit anecdotal at the moment. We live in unprecedented times and I can't see people wanting to live in the city in the same numbers in the short term, but maybe I'm wrong and the city will come back to life again???

Saying that there are lots of other pressures that will be brought in, like the HK Chinese (those that will be able to take their money with them), Agenda 2030 and it's effect and general ramming London HMOs with dinghy folk.

Who knows what tricks Rishi has in store too. I shudder to think.

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Frank Hovis
8 minutes ago, maynardgravy said:

There may be.

It's a bit anecdotal at the moment. We live in unprecedented times and I can't see people wanting to live in the city in the same numbers in the short term, but maybe I'm wrong and the city will come back to life again???

Saying that there are lots of other pressures that will be brought in, like the HK Chinese (those that will be able to take their money with them), Agenda 2030 and it's effect and general ramming London HMOs with dinghy folk.

Who knows what tricks Rishi has in store too. I shudder to think.

If I was a HKer I would be looking at the UK as a staging post for Canada or the US.

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Austin Allegro
29 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

If I was a HKer I would be looking at the UK as a staging post for Canada or the US.

Yes, weren't the initial reports of x million Hong Kongers coming to Britain soon tempered by the news that they would also be accepted by other Commonwealth countries?

Personally I would be happy if any number of them settled here providing that the flotsam and jetsam we currently get from 'less happy lands' are excluded.

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