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Has Coronavirus officially killed the housing market?


Post-Covid, what 3 changes are you going to try to make? (max 3)  

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Chewing Grass

The Covid hasn't put the MIL out of her misery, as she sits there with her detached pile crumbling around her ears convinced it is 1974 watching The Clangers.

You think I'm joking, no dementia is a terrible thing.

For some the Coof was a good thing.

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Anyone that had a 20% deposit before prices halved

Update on my landlords effort to sell his house with me in it... So been on market since December and second open day today. Supposed to be 5 viewings but two cancelled. So 5 viewings in over two

I've just spent a while browsing the 118 forums since my previous post.  Tenants not paying, tenants already fucked off, not a registered business, mortgage company doesnt want to know, how will

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apples
Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Royston said:

Pretty huge power station from a quick look on streetview, I'm surprised one that big is in such close proximity to residential areas or vice versa.

And just to the other side, same close proximity, there's a fairly big sewage treatment plant!

Both will be noisy. Trucks coming and going, machinery working / going wrong. Day and night! :(

Really sensitive to unwanted noise myself. Earplugs don't work against carrying bass, ok for higher pitches like dawn birds. Best way of blocking noise is with other noise. Used to put my kitchen extractor fan on when the local "musician" was being a twat. Discovered that a dehumidifier is a good source of white noise too. If I wanted to be more civilized, I'd have a pond in the garden with a fountain.

Edited by apples
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ashestoashes
On 30/04/2021 at 18:07, Bilbo said:

Search on internet says it's  coal powered at the moment ,hence large chimney. It is being converted to gas by 2023.

Although sleepy coastal towns sound idilic it's good to have some sort of industrial exposure to the area, otherwise no nightlife as it's full of old farts!

converted to gas probably means doubling the size of the site as they'll be new units, the old station will close, seems to be spare ground just down from the bungalow for sale, will be for peak supply so not on all the time, but even so would be a brave move to live that close

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Fully Detached

Record mortgage borrowing as owners move or improve

Usual cheerleading by the BBC:

Quote

The market was stoked up by stamp duty holidays and by low mortgage rates.

These factors encouraged some homeowners to move in time to beat the tax relief deadline or to borrow more to improve their current property.

Mortgage borrowing signals future demand to buy homes, and analysts have said that the UK housing market has been "on the boil" during the spring.

And then this, which rather took me by surprise:

Quote

Andrew Montlake, from mortgage broker Coreco, said stamp duty relief was having an "insane effect" on the property market.

"This mad March mortgage data highlights the frenzied rush of people to buy in the second half of last year and save thousands of pounds on stamp duty," he said.

"But the celebrations surrounding the stamp duty holiday may soon ring hollow if the market cools off and people find their savings have been wiped out by the premium they have paid for property. When borrowing is as extreme as this, it never tends to end well."

 

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The Grey Man

Interest rise warning from the Yellen.

Posted here.

Likely to be posted on multiple threads. A Cross threader.

You know what...if this dosent lead to a stampede to take on further cheap debt I will eat my hat. I see it as be careful, others may well make off good and leverage up to the hilt. Time to seek expert advice on where to buy a pair of dice for decision making.

https://www.ft.com/content/049f4a79-abff-4a6c-a7c1-13409e8f63ae#comments-anchor

 

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Fully Detached
5 hours ago, The Grey Man said:

Interest rise warning from the Yellen.

Posted here.

Likely to be posted on multiple threads. A Cross threader.

You know what...if this dosent lead to a stampede to take on further cheap debt I will eat my hat. I see it as be careful, others may well make off good and leverage up to the hilt. Time to seek expert advice on where to buy a pair of dice for decision making.

https://www.ft.com/content/049f4a79-abff-4a6c-a7c1-13409e8f63ae#comments-anchor

 

Conversation with a friend recently to this effect - he reckoned the rush for mortgage debt was because people are seeing the end of cheap money. I questioned how rational a response it was in such a case to load up with massive debt for 25 years or so, and he simply replied, "yes but most people just don't think like you and me."

I think he might be right, too.

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Frank Hovis
6 hours ago, The Grey Man said:

Interest rise warning from the Yellen.

Posted here.

Likely to be posted on multiple threads. A Cross threader.

You know what...if this dosent lead to a stampede to take on further cheap debt I will eat my hat. I see it as be careful, others may well make off good and leverage up to the hilt. Time to seek expert advice on where to buy a pair of dice for decision making.

https://www.ft.com/content/049f4a79-abff-4a6c-a7c1-13409e8f63ae#comments-anchor

 

I can't read the article but my lengthy experience of the BoE being ever reluctant to raise interest rates, back to the mid 90s and my daily gilt and other governments debt issuance briefing with analysis by Roger Bootle, has shown me time and again that their no-cost substitute for actually lifting rates, which they use time and time again, is to talk about raising rates without actually doing it when the time comes.

"If inflation reaches 3% than rates will have to rise."

- Inflation reaches 3%-

"We think that this is a temporary blip and do not wish to damage the economic recovery by raising rates at this point."

Time and time again for thirty years I have seen this tired old trick in action.  Eventually one sees it for what it is.

It isn't a genuine warning that the base rate will rise.

The warning is instead a direct substitute for raising the base rate.

 

 

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haroldshand
On 05/05/2021 at 02:38, The Grey Man said:

Interest rise warning from the Yellen.

Posted here.

Likely to be posted on multiple threads. A Cross threader.

You know what...if this dosent lead to a stampede to take on further cheap debt I will eat my hat. I see it as be careful, others may well make off good and leverage up to the hilt. Time to seek expert advice on where to buy a pair of dice for decision making.

https://www.ft.com/content/049f4a79-abff-4a6c-a7c1-13409e8f63ae#comments-anchor

 

Raise them or lower them it really does not matter anymore, UK is now going for a 100 million population within the next 30 years or maybe earlier.

Nothing is going to crash this housing market unless there is an exodus such as a brain drain where all the screwed over 40 year old's and younger are encouraged to go somewhere for a better life.

 

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Austin Allegro
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, haroldshand said:

Raise them or lower them it really does not matter anymore, UK is now going for a 100 million population within the next 30 years or maybe earlier.

Nothing is going to crash this housing market unless there is an exodus such as a brain drain where all the screwed over 40 year old's and younger are encouraged to go somewhere for a better life.

 

A brain drain is less likely when the authorities have constructed a mental version of the Berlin Wall* - the 'global pandemic' which makes most people scared of moving around their local supermarket, let alone moving around continents. All they need to do now is make the bans official and permanent with vax passports and digital IDs.

*The Berlin Wall was constructed to prevent the brain-drain of skilled labour from east to west Germany, but it was sold to the public as a protection against infection from nefarious capitalist influences.

Edited by Austin Allegro
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Hancock
2 hours ago, Austin Allegro said:

A brain drain is less likely when the authorities have constructed a mental version of the Berlin Wall* - the 'global pandemic' which makes most people scared of moving around their local supermarket, let alone moving around continents. All they need to do now is make the bans official and permanent with vax passports and digital IDs.

*The Berlin Wall was constructed to prevent the brain-drain of skilled labour from east to west Germany, but it was sold to the public as a protection against infection from nefarious capitalist influences.

Not long after it fell down the west has become full on commie, so maybe they can build it back again to protect those on the east from our hi-tec totalitarianism. 

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JoeDavola
3 hours ago, haroldshand said:

the screwed over 40 year old's and younger are encouraged to go somewhere for a better life.

To which the next question would be - "but where".

Not saying the UK is perfect but I can see the things that make it crap (bar the weather) playing out in most of the developed world.

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The Generation Game
3 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

To which the next question would be - "but where".

Not saying the UK is perfect but I can see the things that make it crap (bar the weather) playing out in most of the developed world.

Either Portugal or France (maybe Brittany?)

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Hancock
6 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

To which the next question would be - "but where".

Not saying the UK is perfect but I can see the things that make it crap (bar the weather) playing out in most of the developed world.

Only suggestion is somewhere sunny, but where they dont speak English .... so you dont truly understand the fucked up political goings on there, that may get you shaking your head!

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Hancock
3 minutes ago, The Generation Game said:

Either Portugal or France (maybe Brittany?)

France ... the only reason to go to France is to get to Italy or Spain. 

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Austin Allegro
7 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

To which the next question would be - "but where".

Not saying the UK is perfect but I can see the things that make it crap (bar the weather) playing out in most of the developed world.

I'm guessing you mean that the UK is leading the world in crapness trends that will eventually happen everywhere, eg:

  • Mass unlimited immigration/Islamification
  • Dumbed down/deracinated/detraditionalised (is that a word) population
  • Fat/unhealthy/junk food addicted
  • Easily led/compliant/gullible
  • Benefits addicted
  • Ugly/overweight people with tats, ripped clothing etc
  • Overcrowding in houses, roads etc
  • High house prices
  • Breakdown of community/family values
  • Wokeness, especially in education system
  • High personal and societal debt

If so I think most of them will happen all over the developed world so it's probably best just to go somewhere remote with nice weather.

 

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Wight Flight
32 minutes ago, Austin Allegro said:

If so I think most of them will happen all over the developed world so it's probably best just to go somewhere remote with nice weather.

Fuck off. We're full.

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JoeDavola

Regarding the sunnier climates, I've always thought that if I did move somewhere sunny most of the year (the climate in San Diego was the most perfect that I've experienced, i.e. hot without too hot) I'd be happy living with much less 'stuff' and in a far smaller space as I'd be out enjoying the sun most of the day when I wasn't working.

I'm gradually contining my 'get rid of clutter you know you'll never use again' project and it's been very worthwhile.

This just came on - this is exactly the kind of bungalow my folks should buy:

https://www.propertypal.com/6-martello-avenue-seahill-holywood/690497

They won't buy it as they don't want a 'fixer upper' and will consider that a fixer upper, but it just looks like a bit of decorating needs done to me.

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Hancock
27 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Fuck off. We're full.

There's plenty of sheep to go round.

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Stuey
16 minutes ago, Hancock said:

There's plenty of sheep to go round.

They're full too..

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Wight Flight
56 minutes ago, Hancock said:

There's plenty of sheep to go round.

Just because we both have a town called Newport it doesn't follow that we have the same hobbies.

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Ash4781b
3 hours ago, Austin Allegro said:

I'm guessing you mean that the UK is leading the world in crapness trends that will eventually happen everywhere, eg:

  • Mass unlimited immigration/Islamification
  • Dumbed down/deracinated/detraditionalised (is that a word) population
  • Fat/unhealthy/junk food addicted
  • Easily led/compliant/gullible
  • Benefits addicted
  • Ugly/overweight people with tats, ripped clothing etc
  • Overcrowding in houses, roads etc
  • High house prices
  • Breakdown of community/family values
  • Wokeness, especially in education system
  • High personal and societal debt

If so I think most of them will happen all over the developed world so it's probably best just to go somewhere remote with nice weather.

 

Like the film elysium? (Down on the ground) It’s going to be grim.

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Sucralose Ray Leonard

There is a reason folk are getting extensions other than it being cheaper than moving. Inflation is here. Our savings are being eroded. Im starting to think about getting one myself as i fear my savings (growing by over £1k a month) are going to become worthless. 

No chance of serious rate rises. Token .25% maybe.

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Stuey
34 minutes ago, Sucralose Ray Leonard said:

There is a reason folk are getting extensions other than it being cheaper than moving. Inflation is here. Our savings are being eroded. Im starting to think about getting one myself as i fear my savings (growing by over £1k a month) are going to become worthless. 

No chance of serious rate rises. Token .25% maybe.

An ounce of gold per month?

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JoeDavola
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sucralose Ray Leonard said:

There is a reason folk are getting extensions other than it being cheaper than moving. Inflation is here. Our savings are being eroded. Im starting to think about getting one myself as i fear my savings (growing by over £1k a month) are going to become worthless. 

No chance of serious rate rises. Token .25% maybe.

Yes I can't see IR's rising by any real measure in the UK because of the economic destruction that it would cause.

I think for the most part the idea of 'if there's something you want buy it now' is probably true for a lot of things. Building work is certainly one of them.

Similar discussion about house prices on the NI subforum of ToS:

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/238684-is-a-price-crash-major-correction-coming/&do=findComment&comment=1103730595

Quote

What I think will happen is inflation of everything, unfortunately there will be those trapped in the jaws of the money printer during the time it takes for wages to catch up.  In 10 years time most people I’ll be earning much more.  Houses will average more than now but not as much as the increase in average wages.  So no crash but the prices will adjust to normal in nominal terms. 

I remain skeptical, as does one of the other posters on ToS, that we'll actually see any significant wage inflation. But that of course doesn't mean that everything else can't get more expensive.

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