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Has Coronavirus officially killed the housing market?


JoeDavola
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Post-Covid, what 3 changes are you going to try to make? (max 3)  

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Austin Allegro
22 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Regarding the sunnier climates, I've always thought that if I did move somewhere sunny most of the year (the climate in San Diego was the most perfect that I've experienced, i.e. hot without too hot) I'd be happy living with much less 'stuff' and in a far smaller space as I'd be out enjoying the sun most of the day when I wasn't working.

I'm gradually contining my 'get rid of clutter you know you'll never use again' project and it's been very worthwhile.

This just came on - this is exactly the kind of bungalow my folks should buy:

https://www.propertypal.com/6-martello-avenue-seahill-holywood/690497

They won't buy it as they don't want a 'fixer upper' and will consider that a fixer upper, but it just looks like a bit of decorating needs done to me.

Good point. One of the reasons the Brits are so obsessed with homes is that they have to spend so much bloody time indoors. If I'm going to spend half the year in my house when it's cold and dark outside, I want a few nice rooms with a proper fireplace and a conservatory to sit in on bright cold days etc.

If I lived in a hot country I'd be perfectly happy in a one bed white painted modern holiday apartamento with a balcony, as I'd spend most of the year outdoors or sitting in cafes etc.

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Hancock
8 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes I can't see IR's rising by any real measure in the UK because of the economic destruction that it would cause.

I think for the most part the idea of 'if there's something you want buy it now' is probably true for a lot of things. Building work is certainly one of them.

Similar discussion about house prices on the NI subforum of ToS:

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/238684-is-a-price-crash-major-correction-coming/&do=findComment&comment=1103730595

I remain skeptical, as does one of the other posters on ToS, that we'll actually see any significant wage inflation. But that of course doesn't mean that everything else can't get more expensive.

So someone on HPC bought 2 Bitcoin for £600 and is whining about inflation.

Is that cunt lacking in self awareness or what.

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JoeDavola
5 minutes ago, Hancock said:

So someone on HPC bought 2 Bitcoin for £600 and is whining about inflation.

Is that cunt lacking in self awareness or what.

He's a long time poster in the NI forums - I enjoy his posts and he seems a decent peron - wealthy business owner, I'd hazard a guess he's a millionare.

Bought at the bottom of the crash in NI too about 8-9 years ago - mentioned he'd have to earn close to a million to make the gains he's made in HPI since then.

All said and done he's doing OK like ;)

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Hancock
1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

He's a long time poster in the NI forums - I enjoy his posts and he seems a decent peron - wealthy business owner, I'd hazard a guess he's a millionare.

Bought at the bottom of the crash in NI too about 8-9 years ago - mentioned he'd have to earn close to a million to make the gains he's made in HPI since then.

All said and done he's doing OK like ;)

I only read the one, could never understand people owning house spending time on HPC, seems the vast majority on here owned a house so never had skin in the game.

 

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JoeDavola
6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I only read the one, could never understand people owning house spending time on HPC, seems the vast majority on here owned a house so never had skin in the game.

A lot of people found their way there during the peak boom years in NI, around '05-07 - that's when I did.

Many of them were smart enough not to buy in NI during those years, and then over 6 or so years from the peak prices crashed 50-60% bottoming in about 2012.

Many including the poster we're talking about think that prices have risen to ridiculous highs again and are not supported by the actual state of the economy.

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Hancock
31 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Many including the poster we're talking about think that prices have risen to ridiculous highs again and are not supported by the actual state of the economy.

Im seeing prices come down from absurd levels in Hampshire, so there is some sort of sanity out there.

IMO a lot of the buying has been brought forward due to SDLT holiday, see what happens after that in September .

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Still  lots of insane rises in North Yorks one house local to me sold for £535k in 2015, a builder had done it up and extended, so the 2015 purchaser need do nothing to it. It's just gone back on the market at £820k, sold subject to contract within a week, a £300k rise within 6 years, with no work done to it is staggering, can't help but think the purchaser will soon have some serious negative equity.  

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JoeDavola
Just now, Austin Allegro said:

If I lived in a hot country I'd be perfectly happy in a one bed white painted modern holiday apartamento with a balcony, as I'd spend most of the year outdoors or sitting in cafes etc.

Exactly. Same here. And I lived in a one bed flat with a balcony for 10 years! Pity about the weather outside the balcony though ;)

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Fully Detached

BBC have resumed normal service.

Quote

'Feeding frenzy'

"This market isn't standing still for a second," said analyst Lucy Pendleton of estate agents James Pendleton. "The feeding frenzy for property was already feeling pretty ferocious but then along comes another big leap in the annual rate of [house price] growth."

She said the current state of the market means timing is crucial for buyers and not wasting time is essential.

"In a blazing hot seller's market like this, most buyers don't even compare prices locally to make their offer, they work out what they can afford and they go for it."

Nicky Stevenson, managing director at estate agent Fine & Country, said: "Buyers need to be incredibly determined to succeed in a market like this."

 

She predicted that the market rally will continue with optimism being complemented by improving weather, the imminent loosening of Covid restrictions, low interest rates, a yearning for more space and the fact that many homeowners have saved thousands of pounds not being able to go anywhere.

"This won't be the last record high we'll see this year by a long stretch," she said.

Maybe I'm just seeing what I want to see, but that reads to me like two agents ramping the living fuck out of a market they knows is going to reverse in fairly short order. You could probably make a bullshit bingo game out of all the cliches in that couple of paragraphs.

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2 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

BBC have resumed normal service.

Maybe I'm just seeing what I want to see, but that reads to me like two agents ramping the living fuck out of a market they knows is going to reverse in fairly short order. You could probably make a bullshit bingo game out of all the cliches in that couple of paragraphs.

It's like 1988 again, people rushing before the "double MIRAS" finished.

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JoeDavola
1 hour ago, Fully Detached said:

BBC have resumed normal service.

Maybe I'm just seeing what I want to see, but that reads to me like two agents ramping the living fuck out of a market they knows is going to reverse in fairly short order. You could probably make a bullshit bingo game out of all the cliches in that couple of paragraphs.

I actually remember articles like this in the Belfast Telegraph around '06 just before the market in NI crashed (eventually dropping 50-60% in 5 years). There was one journalist Helen Carson that used to write them all that we used to have a right go at on ToS at the time. Constantly ramping the market under the guise of 'journalism'.

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Fully Detached
Just now, JoeDavola said:

I actually remember articles like this in the Belfast Telegraph around '06 just before the market in NI crashed (eventually dropping 50-60% in 5 years). There was one journalist Helen Carson that used to write them all that we used to have a right go at on ToS at the time. Constantly ramping the market under the guise of 'journalism'.

What I find interesting is that unlike the refreshing article I linked to a couple of pages back, in which they had a contrasting opinion from a more cautious source, the BBC have reverted to massive cheerleading again. It's so outrageous and blatant, you have to wonder what is in it for the BBC - I get the EA ramping, of course. This bit in particular is just laughable:

Quote

"In a blazing hot seller's market like this, most buyers don't even compare prices locally to make their offer, they work out what they can afford and they go for it."

In other words, ignore the fact that the vendor is asking twice the highest amount ever achieved in that street, if you can afford it, just give them the asking price :wanker:

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JoeDavola
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

What I find interesting is that unlike the refreshing article I linked to a couple of pages back, in which they had a contrasting opinion from a more cautious source, the BBC have reverted to massive cheerleading again. It's so outrageous and blatant, you have to wonder what is in it for the BBC - I get the EA ramping, of course. This bit in particular is just laughable:

In other words, ignore the fact that the vendor is asking twice the highest amount ever achieved in that street, if you can afford it, just give them the asking price :wanker:

It's just so incredibly fucking dull that this is the main UK past time, obsession, and now something that you will need to stretch your finances to the limit to buy..... a roof over your head...and most of the time not even one that nice either.

Surely there must be more to life than this.

Edited by JoeDavola
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Hail the Tripod
On 07/05/2021 at 21:36, JoeDavola said:

Exactly. Same here. And I lived in a one bed flat with a balcony for 10 years! Pity about the weather outside the balcony though ;)

 

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JoeDavola
Posted (edited)

Folks went to view a bunglaow. £250K. Nice bungalow but needs a new kitchen and bathroom and apparently also needs re-wired and new floors.

They went to view it on the very first day of viewings, the first working day after it was listed. Already a bid of £250K on it.

Went to view a second house for £275K that they like and are going to bid on. Apparently a more run down but slightly bigger version of the house in the same development sold for £285K to a cash buyer recently.

This reflects the expereince of my mate who was losing out on a couple of £300K houses to cash buyers.

The EA was also shocked to see how many first time buyers were looking at the £275K house (that will likely go for closer to 300). Seems that's FTB money in a country with an average wage of £28K.

I guess if you have two people late 20's in good jobs bringing in 90-110K between them then then £27K is do-able especially with some BOMAD help.

Also mentioned that a smaller house in the same street where they sold theirs for £170K about 7 years back is on for £270K.

Edited by JoeDavola
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haroldshand

I have probably just had the best 18 months of my life financially and even though I have no intention of buying again in the UK(at least for now)  I looked on Rightmove for the first time in a year ish in the mid Suffolk area which I have always found reasonably priced compared to the rest of the UK at the  £350-400,000 level and all I can say is WTF.

Seems like the pandemic has made everyone rich and affluent and maybe everyone is far richer than I ever imagined and more confident in the future UK economy. Looked at a 20 mile radius and there was just a pile of shit and even if I had more than enough money to buy the house I would of liked I don't think I could  not bring myself to part with the money.

What is happening in this country, TOS did not just get it wrong they spectacularly got it wrong

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Rare Bear
4 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I have probably just had the best 18 months of my life financially and even though I have no intention of buying again in the UK(at least for now)  I looked on Rightmove for the first time in a year ish in the mid Suffolk area which I have always found reasonably priced compared to the rest of the UK at the  £350-400,000 level and all I can say is WTF.

Seems like the pandemic has made everyone rich and affluent and maybe everyone is far richer than I ever imagined and more confident in the future UK economy. Looked at a 20 mile radius and there was just a pile of shit and even if I had more than enough money to buy the house I would of liked I don't think I could  not bring myself to part with the money.

What is happening in this country, TOS did not just get it wrong they spectacularly got it wrong

Having lived through the serious crash in the mid 70s and the late 80s-early 90s one, I just can't understand what is going on.

Of course in the mid 70s one the government was quite happy to let anyone who deserved to go bust go bust and In the 80s-90s one they let the homebuyers suffer. I wasn't here for the early 80s slump so I don't know much about it.

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Frank Hovis
26 minutes ago, maynardgravy said:

Some of you may have noticed a lack of posting on my behalf over the last month or so. Even more of you will be thinking ‘I don’t give a monkey’s’ but I’m going to tell you anyway.

 

I bought a house.

Outright.

Half a million quid.

I know, the likes of @Adarmo will be nodding in a ‘I told you so’ manner. Also I will have to concede to @Frank Hovis on this point too.

But this is the absolute truth of why I’ve done this and what’s happening down here in Greater London…

·        The road (cul-de-sac) I currently live in has around twenty ex-council houses. When I moved in it was around 50-50 ‘indigenous’ to other. In the last 6 months 3 houses of retired couples have focussed their attention on moving out of London and sold up on the quiet. All the buyers have been muslim, including the bloke who bought this place. When I move out the demographic will be irreversibly muslim. I don’t want to be the token white guy.. sorry.

 

·        Yes, this place sold  - the LL took an offer 70 grand under the initial asking price (580k from 650k)… so my anecdotal evidence is that people are taking a bit of a hit in London in order to get out, which is probably pushing retirement coastal property up I’d imagine.

 

·        I had to find a place to live and desperate to get out of London, so bid 60k under the asking on a detached house in Oxfordshire and lo and behold, after walking away, they accepted… so here I am, in the process of buying a house after all the turmoil of this and TOS discussions.

 

·        I have to say that 1) It’s cash – I will have no mortgage, and  2) I’m prepared for a crash. I still believe a correction of some kind has to happen, I just think that cash is going to be turned into confetti, so I’m getting out of cash while I can. The last 2 years have been as unbelievably financially cataclysmic as anyone could have possibly predicted, and I’m just not savvy enough to ride out this kind of wave – so I’ve caved in.

 

I just know a huge crash will start next week… lol.

Congratulations MG.

Whatever happens now you will have a roof over your head, no rent or mortgage to pay, and you can live there for as long as you want.

That's priceless.

beer-cheers-1024x576.jpg

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haroldshand
29 minutes ago, maynardgravy said:

Some of you may have noticed a lack of posting on my behalf over the last month or so. Even more of you will be thinking ‘I don’t give a monkey’s’ but I’m going to tell you anyway.

 

I bought a house.

Outright.

Half a million quid.

I know, the likes of @Adarmo will be nodding in a ‘I told you so’ manner. Also I will have to concede to @Frank Hovis on this point too.

But this is the absolute truth of why I’ve done this and what’s happening down here in Greater London…

·        The road (cul-de-sac) I currently live in has around twenty ex-council houses. When I moved in it was around 50-50 ‘indigenous’ to other. In the last 6 months 3 houses of retired couples have focussed their attention on moving out of London and sold up on the quiet. All the buyers have been muslim, including the bloke who bought this place. When I move out the demographic will be irreversibly muslim. I don’t want to be the token white guy.. sorry.

 

·        Yes, this place sold  - the LL took an offer 70 grand under the initial asking price (580k from 650k)… so my anecdotal evidence is that people are taking a bit of a hit in London in order to get out, which is probably pushing retirement coastal property up I’d imagine.

 

·        I had to find a place to live and desperate to get out of London, so bid 60k under the asking on a detached house in Oxfordshire and lo and behold, after walking away, they accepted… so here I am, in the process of buying a house after all the turmoil of this and TOS discussions.

 

·        I have to say that 1) It’s cash – I will have no mortgage, and  2) I’m prepared for a crash. I still believe a correction of some kind has to happen, I just think that cash is going to be turned into confetti, so I’m getting out of cash while I can. The last 2 years have been as unbelievably financially cataclysmic as anyone could have possibly predicted, and I’m just not savvy enough to ride out this kind of wave – so I’ve caved in.

 

I just know a huge crash will start next week… lol.

Good for you mate.

Two types of people in this world....

The ones who are continuing with the TOS 20 year mantra and the ones that now admit they were totally wrong about a coming crash and got on with their lives ;)

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maynardgravy
4 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Good for you mate.

Two types of people in this world....

The ones who are continuing with the TOS 20 year mantra and the ones that now admit they were totally wrong about a coming crash and got on with their lives ;)

to be honest (and you're partially correct) if you were to look at London alone, then a crash is happening right now... we are witnessing biflation.

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Option5
11 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Good for you mate.

Two types of people in this world....

The ones who are continuing with the TOS 20 year mantra and the ones that now admit they were totally wrong about a coming crash and got on with their lives ;)

Lives? Don't talk to me about lives.

🤖

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Wight Flight
17 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Good for you mate.

Two types of people in this world....

The ones who are continuing with the TOS 20 year mantra and the ones that now admit they were totally wrong about a coming crash and got on with their lives ;)

There is a third that can't buy even if they wanted to.

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maynardgravy
5 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

There is a third that can't buy even if they wanted to.

indeed.. I rode my luck.

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Wight Flight
Just now, maynardgravy said:

indeed.. I rode my luck.

And fair play to you. If I had the cash i would have done the same.

The difficulty for me will be saving more than the market can rise every year.

I went backwards £100k+ this year 😈

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