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Has Coronavirus officially killed the housing market?


JoeDavola
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Post-Covid, what 3 changes are you going to try to make? (max 3)  

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Democorruptcy
2 minutes ago, Option5 said:

I love the way these things are all based on results which are historical data. Does nobody look at what's happening now and decide if the trend will continue.

The whole market seems to act after the event. Good results price up bad results price down.

Seems arse about face to me...

You don't have to buy on good historical results, you could go short!

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haroldshand

Looks like this has been one hell of a thread since the  pandemic started and where I started out 100% certain a property crash was upon us, but have any of your come to any conclusions:)

Me, I am not to certain now but I edging towards a lot of growth, inflation coming and money has to be kept safe somewhere and with a growing immigrant led population there are plenty of customers, and yes Interest rates are the elephant in the room

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BurntBread
21 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Looks like this has been one hell of a thread since the  pandemic started and where I started out 100% certain a property crash was upon us, but have any of your come to any conclusions:)

Me, I am not to certain now but I edging towards a lot of growth, inflation coming and money has to be kept safe somewhere and with a growing immigrant led population there are plenty of customers, and yes Interest rates are the elephant in the room

If there is a credit crunch II (which is probably the same thing as the BK referred to in the basement), then UK, Oz, Canada and China property markets will take a huge hit, I think. Markets can stay out of whack with appropriate historical averages for many years, but that makes them increasingly vulnerable. Back in the days of the first credit crunch, the falls were temporary as governments were happy to re-inflate financial assets almost immediately. I don't think the dynamic will be the same the second time round: for sure, after a big property crash, prices might be buoyed up with general inflation, but that will be slow, and I can't see them being pumped straight back to pre-bust levels by easy consumer lending again. There will be other priorities for the newly-printed cash.

Has coronavirus killed the housing market? No, obviously not. Will it, once the economic chickens come home to roost? I suspect so. We haven't seen the economic or financial hardship from COVID really bite yet, but those chickens are starting to appear, whether it's bankrupt importers, loans having to be repaid, or companies not able to raise prices enough to pay for workers.

Cracks are yawning wide open internationally, too. Evergrande might not be contained. Container ports might not get unstuck. Unstuck workers might strike.

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belfastchild
On 01/10/2021 at 17:04, belfastchild said:

Oops.
Back up for sale again. Buyer withdrew.
Again.
Keep telling him its too expensive but listens to estate agent and people are bidding daft amounts, maybe the banks are then saying no? Dunno.

The saga continues.
165 sold and buyer withdrew in August

175 sold and buyer withdrew end September.

accepted an offer of 160k buyer is chain free and downsizing, no mortgage required apparently.
Is it squeeky bum time?

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Fully Detached
On 17/10/2021 at 15:38, haroldshand said:

Looks like this has been one hell of a thread since the  pandemic started and where I started out 100% certain a property crash was upon us, but have any of your come to any conclusions:)

Me, I am not to certain now but I edging towards a lot of growth, inflation coming and money has to be kept safe somewhere and with a growing immigrant led population there are plenty of customers, and yes Interest rates are the elephant in the room

I've come to the conclusion that it's safer to buy a house and risk losing 50% to a property crash than it is to try to protect your cash and buy cheaper/bigger after a crash. I really think we are in the end game now and all bets are off - I actually put buying a house in almost the same category as buying a crossbow and large tins of beans, i.e. you might not need it and it might be a waste of money, but if it turns out you needed it you'll be very glad you did.

Weirdly I am less angry about the manipulation of the housing market now I've made that decision than I was beforehand, probably because I am able to justify it to myself as a survival strategy. Which is a little less painful than accepting I was on the wrong side of the market for 18 years and jumped ship right as we enter the most likely period for a house price crash in the last 3 decades.

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Democorruptcy

One I refer to as 'The Boomerang" is back on the market today at a new record asking price of £395k. See price history for 2021 below. I think it started off at £325k in 2019 several agents ago. I know someone who viewed it and he told me, as well as it's own, it had the neighbour's septic tank in it's garden, it put him right off! 

 

boomerang.jpg

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JoeDavola
On 17/10/2021 at 16:53, belfastchild said:

The saga continues.
165 sold and buyer withdrew in August

175 sold and buyer withdrew end September.

accepted an offer of 160k buyer is chain free and downsizing, no mortgage required apparently.
Is it squeeky bum time?

Any idea why the buyer withdrew in September?

When it sold for £175K, what was it listed at?

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belfastchild
3 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Any idea why the buyer withdrew in September?

When it sold for £175K, what was it listed at?

All three times OO 160k. First two timed was bidding war which got carried away. First time identical house came on market for 20 grand less (about what they were going for end of april).
175k was 3 way thing, suspect bank said no. EAs only check you have the funds for the initial amount that gets you a viewing. The bidding is a different thing entirely.

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ashestoashes

taxes, fuel, energy, food, inflation are going to leave less money for housing and then there's mortgage rates going up

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4 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

taxes, fuel, energy, food, inflation are going to leave less money for housing and then there's mortgage rates going up

Yes these things will act as a de facto interest rate increase.

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1 hour ago, Stuey said:

Yes these things will act as a de facto interest rate increase.

Sep RPI 4.9%, should be 20%, but still a lot of pension increases based on that figure

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