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Has Coronavirus officially killed the housing market?


Post-Covid, what 3 changes are you going to try to make? (max 3)  

119 members have voted

  1. 1. Post-Covid, what 3 changes are you going to try to make? (max 3)

    • Work from home more
    • Walk more (drive less)
    • Avoid Chinese goods
    • Shop locally
    • Quit working (bennies)
    • Retire earlier
    • Leave the UK
    • Come back to UK
    • Cook more own food
    • Eat out more
    • See family more
    • See family less!
    • More time on hobbies
    • Worry less
    • Get divorced
    • None of the above

This poll is closed to new votes


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I'd love house prices to half so i can pick up a reasonably priced house, not a lot to ask really

I just wouldn't be surprised if they managed to pull a rabbit out of the hat and keep the plates spinning, surely if house prices tank then it'll take down the banks and the rest of the economy?

Edited by lid
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Anyone that had a 20% deposit before prices halved

I've just spent a while browsing the 118 forums since my previous post.  Tenants not paying, tenants already fucked off, not a registered business, mortgage company doesnt want to know, how will

I can hardly bear to go in the place. Obviously can't at the moment anyway, as marooned in the US. Makes my own father's death at home, in his own bed look like a lottery win. I have told the story be

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18 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

If that was me, I'd not rush to find a house just yet

I agree. There's going to be a lag.  The denial from sellers of falling prices will be massive.  Only those that have to sell will reduce their prices initially.  It'll take 9 months I reckon until we start to see significant falls anywhere.  Insulting offers is the only way to play the game now.

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13 minutes ago, Iamcynical said:

I agree. There's going to be a lag.  The denial from sellers of falling prices will be massive.  Only those that have to sell will reduce their prices initially.  It'll take 9 months I reckon until we start to see significant falls anywhere.  Insulting offers is the only way to play the game now.

Yep, 40% off list price, probably 50%

I'm not desperate. Take it or leave it.

Edited by Hopeful
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1 hour ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Be interesting to see if the 0.1% interest rate feeds through to available mortgages for a while once things get moving again. If it does, that will surely be the time to take out the biggest 10 year fix mortgage available.

You'll be waiting for that, and I'll be waiting for petrol to go below £1.10 a litre...

I wonder which one of us will give up waiting first?

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2 months into a 5y fix, 15% LTV.

I am allergic to debt but not rationally to invest in assets so I am looking at a holiday home abroad (Med) and Covid has been kind to me.

Mind you, the wife is insisting we extend for that 2nd/3rd/4th bathroom to which I reply that I am happy to wait for my daughter to finish her nth brow plucking session of the day.

Won't get into extra debt for an expedited piss taking (literally) experience.

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6 minutes ago, spunko said:

You'll be waiting for that, and I'll be waiting for petrol to go below £1.10 a litre...

I wonder which one of us will give up waiting first?

Assume that petrol is literally free to buy at the refinery. Then you have the cost of transporting it, the infrastructure to sell it (pumps, tanks, credit card payment systems etc), the cost of the staff, rent for the premises etc. On top of that you have 58p duty and 20% VAT (which also applies on top of the duty). It’s really hard to see how prices could ever go below a pound a litre under any circumstances given that lot.

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Also factor SDLT in to the equation.  Who the hell can afford that?   I think that will be the first thing to be reformed in an attempt to stabilise the market and postpone the inevitable.  The big test will come as said upthread when the BTL and Airbnb merchants try to offload and get any equity out while they still can.  Chronic over supply.

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1 minute ago, TheBlueCat said:

Assume that petrol is literally free to buy at the refinery. Then you have the cost of transporting it, the infrastructure to sell it (pumps, tanks, credit card payment systems etc), the cost of the staff, rent for the premises etc. On top of that you have 58p duty and 20% VAT (which also applies on top of the duty). It’s really hard to see how prices could ever go below a pound a litre under any circumstances given that lot.

How does one explain that it cost 80p a litre when I started driving in 2004? Is it all due to tax increases (I suspect so)?

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22 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

with the economy in depression homeowners will be sitting ducks for council tax rises

Well this is the thing; I don't want a big house for that very reason - people with big houses are gonna get taken to the absolute cleaners in coming years from the councils and the never ending debts they rack up.

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15 minutes ago, spunko said:

How does one explain that it cost 80p a litre when I started driving in 2004? Is it all due to tax increases (I suspect so)?

Yes, the duel duty “escalator” combined with VAT going up from 15% to 20%. There will be a bit more due to the rise in employment costs and rents but it’s mainly tax rises.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, 201p said:

In the last crash of 2008, the sweet spot was around 2011.

In Northern Ireland bottom of the market was 2013.

Things bounced back very quickly, but to take an example of 3 identical flats in the same building, i.e. the same flat basically.

One sold in 2013 for £110K.

One sold in 2018 for £175K. (houses had 'recoverd' plus apartments were now being sold as airbnb businesses)

One was listed in 2019 for £200K.....and is still on the market.

I also know of newbuild townhouses in Belfast, horrible things, that dropped from £350K to £175K (this is actual government recorded sold prices from land registry), which are back up to over £300K now. I visited one a few years back and they're so badly built I wouldn't spend £150K on it.

Edited by JoeDavola
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4 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Well this is the thing; I don't want a big house for that very reason - people with big houses are gonna get taken to the absolute cleaners in coming years from the councils and the never ending debts they rack up.

It's not the size of the house only, it's the sale price and things are a bit skewed in the SE. I have said it before but my little 2/3 bedroom cottage (<1000 sq ft) is Band G, the second highest. I asked for them to review the band - and cited that my neighbour in a 7 bedroom manor house is also Band G - but they just said it sold for XYZ in 2014 and therefore it's Band G. My neighbour meanwhile hasn't moved since 1982 or something, but even if she sells now for a few £m it won't make any difference her house will still be Band G or perhaps they'll up it slightly to Band H, the highest. It's ridiculous.

4 minutes ago, Uptherebels said:

109.9 at my local supermarket today.

Oooh!

:Jumping:

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6 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Well this is the thing; I don't want a big house for that very reason - people with big houses are gonna get taken to the absolute cleaners in coming years from the councils and the never ending debts they rack up.

Something like 57% of your council tax goes in "social care". I'll get attacked by saying this, however the virus could conceivable reduce council taxes....

I genuinely find it fairly amazing that you need about 30 householders paying council tax to keep 1 person in a nursing home. What's a normal council tax? About £1500 a year? Cost of putting a pensioner in a home is about £45k....

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, spunko said:

It's not the size of the house only, it's the sale price and things are a bit skewed in the SE. I have said it before but my little 2/3 bedroom cottage (<1000 sq ft) is Band G, the second highest. I asked for them to review the band - and cited that my neighbour in a 7 bedroom manor house is also Band G - but they just said it sold for XYZ in 2014 and therefore it's Band G. My neighbour meanwhile hasn't moved since 1982 or something, but even if she sells now for a few £m it won't make any difference her house will still be Band G or perhaps they'll up it slightly to Band H, the highest. It's ridiculous.

Yes it's not just the size here either, it's what's called the rateable value.

I live in a modern apartment block in city centre. Right opposite me is a housing estate. Like you can see it from my window and you basically just cross the street to get to it.

The bigger apartments in my block have a council tax (we call them rates) bill of about £1700 a year.

However the council houses only across the street, i.e. still right in the city centre, that are the same size as the biggest apartments, have a rates bill that is about 50% cheaper.

Therefore the rates you give the council seems to be based on 'how much money can we get off this chump'. It's another reason why living in a housing estate is great if you'd be happy to do it, you save several hundred pounds a year for the same council services.

Edited by JoeDavola
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2 minutes ago, Great Guy said:

Something like 57% of your council tax goes in "social care". I'll get attacked by saying this, however the virus could conceivable reduce council taxes....

I genuinely find it fairly amazing that you need about 30 householders paying council tax to keep 1 person in a nursing home. What's a normal council tax? About £1500 a year? Cost of putting a pensioner in a home is about £45k....

Doesn't matter if the virus reduces the social care bill to £0; the council will find something else to spend it on so council tax won't be dropping a penny.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

However the council houses only across the street, i.e. still right in the city centre, that are the same size as the biggest apartments, have a rates bill that is about 50% cheaper.

OK I actually crunched the numbers.

Two properties, less than 100m from each other. (thanks google maps)

The council houses, pay only 46% of the council tax per square meter that the private apartment owners do.

They should re-name the block 'Chump Towers'.

Edited by JoeDavola
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2 hours ago, 201p said:

In the last crash of 2008, the sweet spot was around 2011.

Do you think this is the same as 2008. Isnt the Corona crash more of a pause rather than a reset. Demand is getting pent up now. People are keen to buy stuff but cant. Those that have mortgages are getting money printed and handed to them over the shutdown period. Jobs will be saved. Sorry to be a gloomster, but this is probably going to be just that 'a pause'. Once everything is back to normal, it will be business as usual. Some might go bust, be theyd be the ones that are going bust anyway. The gov will print the money and save most of the businesses. And once the extra money hits the economy, and corona is all forgotten, it will be inflation of everything, especially houses, with those extra trillions washing about.

 

1 hour ago, Iamcynical said:

I agree. There's going to be a lag.  The denial from sellers of falling prices will be massive.  Only those that have to sell will reduce their prices initially.  It'll take 9 months I reckon until we start to see significant falls anywhere.  Insulting offers is the only way to play the game now.

No one will sell, they will sit tight. The only sellers are the ones that need to sell, probate/social care etc.

58 minutes ago, Ina said:

Also factor SDLT in to the equation.  Who the hell can afford that?   I think that will be the first thing to be reformed in an attempt to stabilise the market and postpone the inevitable.  The big test will come as said upthread when the BTL and Airbnb merchants try to offload and get any equity out while they still can.  Chronic over supply.

SDLT will the first to be cut, to boost the housing market once corona crash is over.

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4 hours ago, Great Guy said:

I think the government will be printing money on an epic scale... If I had the money I'd be buying real assets like property.

#printymcprintface

I agree. So there will be inflation due to money printing and low interest rates. Billions had recently been withdrawn from the stock markets, so where is that money going to go? Back into shares? Under the mattress? Into assets like property?

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1 hour ago, TheBlueCat said:

Assume that petrol is literally free to buy at the refinery. Then you have the cost of transporting it, the infrastructure to sell it (pumps, tanks, credit card payment systems etc), the cost of the staff, rent for the premises etc. On top of that you have 58p duty and 20% VAT (which also applies on top of the duty). It’s really hard to see how prices could ever go below a pound a litre under any circumstances given that lot.

4 years ago I bought diesel at 1 EURO a litre in Belgium. probably 85p at the time.  Tax is probably a bit less too.

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