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JoeDavola

Has Coronavirus officially killed the housing market?

Post-Covid, what 3 changes are you going to try to make? (max 3)  

119 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. Post-Covid, what 3 changes are you going to try to make? (max 3)

    • Work from home more
    • Walk more (drive less)
    • Avoid Chinese goods
    • Shop locally
    • Quit working (bennies)
    • Retire earlier
    • Leave the UK
    • Come back to UK
    • Cook more own food
    • Eat out more
    • See family more
    • See family less!
    • More time on hobbies
    • Worry less
    • Get divorced
    • None of the above


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3 hours ago, Darude said:

It might get a lot harder for people to retire to Spain or Portugal if the UK government goes ahead with the plans floated at the weekend to not reimburse health spending by retirees in EU countries for people who move there after December 2020. Could lead to more retirees moving to UK coastal towns in the future.

Iirc correctly, du health thing only covers minor treatment I.e a+e.

If you need gp or chronic  care then it has to be paid for.

Most non UK countries dont have free at point if use, all you can eat healthcare.

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2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Someone just posted this on twitter

 

Image

 

The comment being

 

"It is striking that the real statistics today do not concur with estate agents' propaganda that the housing market has been booming."

 

Enjoy.

 

Not even half the story.

They need to do those graphs from 1985.

Many years ago, well, late 90s, the received wisdom was less than 90k/mortgages was housing un doldrums, prices crashing.

70k mortgages/month is dire. Zombified, not keep up with death, divorce, debt.

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3 hours ago, spygirl said:

Iirc correctly, du health thing only covers minor treatment I.e a+e.

If you need gp or chronic  care then it has to be paid for.

Most non UK countries dont have free at point if use, all you can eat healthcare.

And most other countries don't have quite the same blase attitude to spending public money on unentitled foreigners that we do in the UK.

The whole expat/EHIC thing is a total mess because every EU country has different rules about it and the British authorities don't seem to have a clue about it either.

The basic rule is don't rely on it for anything other than minor GP visits or A&E emergencies.

If you're non-tax resident in the country and not employed there paying health insurance (eg, a British pensioner spending six months of the year in Spain) it becomes even more complicated.

Edited by Austin Allegro

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On 28/06/2020 at 14:06, Fully Detached said:

This started to occur in my area about 10 days after the market opened up again. This morning I am at the point of despair and seriously considering just fucking off to any bleak, remote county or other country where I can buy a little smallholding and live in peace and quiet, miles away from other people and this this absolute, unfathomable insanity.

HPI was the greatest con trick ever played on the British public, and it's been played so well that most of them will now fight tooth and nail to prevent this basic human need from getting less expensive. The fucking housing market is like a 20 year long horror movie where the baddie just won't die.

That's good. Use that anger! Life begins on the far side of despair, as M. Sartre wrote. (I don't like much of his stuff but he was right about that).

I had a similar moment after the '08 crash when it became clear that the entire UK economy was being recalibrated to keep house prices high.

That was when I began plans to live abroad and set up an online business, which I did for a while, all the time saving money so that when I came back to the UK I was able to buy a small house outright in a remote but pretty corner of the countryside.

Now go out and find your smallholding!

Edited by Austin Allegro

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On 28/06/2020 at 17:17, crashmonitor said:

We'd quite like Powys or Denbighshire ( towards you). Not public sector either. Quite like this Grade 2 listed Country house. It hasn't got the usual suspects that discounts it for us..(1) Stables, (2) Festering derelict sheds (3) Swimming pools. It has got 5 unusable servants' bedrooms in the attic, but I suppose if you just pretend that's the roof void it looks pretty superb and immaculately presented otherwise. Just 450k, probably a million at least to rebuild. And a cellar for Stokie.

Sort of thing that the English will be looking to escape to, hopefully the Welsh wont mind ( well they might). Will probably stay local though. Council tax band H !!!

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/84196040

 

 

Ever been to Welshpool? It's grim. I can think of much better places to live in Wales. 

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On 28/06/2020 at 14:06, Fully Detached said:

This started to occur in my area about 10 days after the market opened up again. This morning I am at the point of despair and seriously considering just fucking off to any bleak, remote county or other country where I can buy a little smallholding and live in peace and quiet, miles away from other people and this this absolute, unfathomable insanity.

HPI was the greatest con trick ever played on the British public, and it's been played so well that most of them will now fight tooth and nail to prevent this basic human need from getting less expensive. The fucking housing market is like a 20 year long horror movie where the baddie just won't die.

I think the problem for you, if you're working, you're expected to already have bought. If unfortunately you missed that boat you're right to be bitter. It's a shit show as you say and a real disincentive for the young, and those not already owning. At least when rates were higher it was a level playing field to rent or buy. Now it's grossly biased towards ownership. 

I know a couple, council employee and a legal eagle looking to buy themselves a holiday let. With all the messages from the government over the past 20 years, it's not surprising they want to buy another place. Just about everyone wants to buy property. They know currency is trash and property only goes one way. 

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2 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Ever been to Welshpool? It's grim. I can think of much better places to live in Wales. 

I'd rather live in Alston than Welshpool, I remember it before it was bypassed, it had more character then.

It used to have a really old-fashioned cinema, on a corner or t-junction, that was really old fashioned in the 1980s, can't remember where it was and can't find it on Google Maps as its almost like half the town has been remodelled.

 

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2 hours ago, Green Devil said:

I think the problem for you, if you're working, you're expected to already have bought. If unfortunately you missed that boat you're right to be bitter. It's a shit show as you say and a real disincentive for the young, and those not already owning. At least when rates were higher it was a level playing field to rent or buy. Now it's grossly biased towards ownership. 

I know a couple, council employee and a legal eagle looking to buy themselves a holiday let. With all the messages from the government over the past 20 years, it's not surprising they want to buy another place. Just about everyone wants to buy property. They know currency is trash and property only goes one way. 

That’s the problem I know I can get another 60k terrace and rent either mine out or the new one and get about 450 plus a month back .the morgage would be for about 30k.the interest will be low.    But let’s say I rent mine out it cost 49k  8years ago .its in effect would have cost me 38 k to rent it at 400 a month .its also brought me in close to 7k tax free by renting a room out .ok I have gone nuts in the last 6 months replaced the boiler windows doors  and new carpets etc that cost 10k but before I did that my maintenance costs were sub 500 quid in 7 years .zoopla is not a great tool I’m the first to admit but it estimates my house is worth 67k I’d go 60 maybe a bit lower due to haveing everything realy important done .in short I could easily live here another 10’years and expect no insane bills the boiler and system

have a 7 year warranty unless the roof caves in im

covered .was I a fool or not must be the question 

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1 hour ago, Fully Detached said:

I know what you mean, at my age I should have bought (did in fact, sold it to pay business debts but that's another story). But my anger is mostly not about myself - you mention the young, I see my neices and nephews with no hope of ever having any security, of having to make a life and try to raise a family in damp, shitty rentals that they have no stake in, that they could be turfed out of with 4 weeks notice and all their disposable income being spent on rent, constant contract renewals, agent fees and moving costs every time they get kicked out.

+1000

Exactly my situation and thoughts.

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11 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

+1000

Exactly my situation and thoughts.

So look at how you can exploit it .its got weaknesses it’s predictable ffs.im a twat for walking out of jobs I’ve got an x that regularly gets sectioned ie I’m not big on job security basicly the question must be do you guys want it on your knees or standing on your feet .your part of the fucking problem

im has thick

has fuck but I won’t go down on my knees I look for weaknesses in the system and I’m going to do my best to go for it .pity I fucked about till I was 47 but that’s my own fault 

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7 hours ago, stokiescum said:

So look at how you can exploit it .its got weaknesses it’s predictable ffs.im a twat for walking out of jobs I’ve got an x that regularly gets sectioned ie I’m not big on job security basicly the question must be do you guys want it on your knees or standing on your feet .your part of the fucking problem

im has thick

has fuck but I won’t go down on my knees I look for weaknesses in the system and I’m going to do my best to go for it .pity I fucked about till I was 47 but that’s my own fault 

I like your view point. I share the anger. My family hate my scepticism, it makes them uneasy. I play life just about by the rules. They are not my rules but if I see something beneficial and advantageous but within the rules I will go for it. 

Moved 5 times in ten years. Council tower block to 3 bed in decent area. 

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9 hours ago, stokiescum said:

So look at how you can exploit it .its got weaknesses it’s predictable ffs.im a twat for walking out of jobs I’ve got an x that regularly gets sectioned ie I’m not big on job security basicly the question must be do you guys want it on your knees or standing on your feet .your part of the fucking problem

im has thick

has fuck but I won’t go down on my knees I look for weaknesses in the system and I’m going to do my best to go for it .pity I fucked about till I was 47 but that’s my own fault 

Problem is once you've built up enough that you've got something to lose then that attitude becomes harder to have. From your posts I understand you own a house yourself in which case fair play to you for giving no fucks. I'm not able to do that, so my plan at the moment is to take my ball and fuck off somewhere else.

But if my neices or nephews asked me for advice on how to make the most out of life in the UK, I don't think I could hand on heart tell them to work, to strive, to try to get ahead, because I honestly believe that since they have nothing right now, their best bet would be to max out credit everywhere they can, and when they can't pay it back, just go bankrupt and start over again 12 months later. There is something very wrong in a world where that advice makes more sense than trying to build a future for themselves.

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4 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

Problem is once you've built up enough that you've got something to lose then that attitude becomes harder to have. From your posts I understand you own a house yourself in which case fair play to you for giving no fucks. I'm not able to do that, so my plan at the moment is to take my ball and fuck off somewhere else.

But if my neices or nephews asked me for advice on how to make the most out of life in the UK, I don't think I could hand on heart tell them to work, to strive, to try to get ahead, because I honestly believe that since they have nothing right now, their best bet would be to max out credit everywhere they can, and when they can't pay it back, just go bankrupt and start over again 12 months later. There is something very wrong in a world where that advice makes more sense than trying to build a future for themselves.

Yes, this is the state of affairs.  It's not new though - back in the 90's my then girlfriend had a friend who was a retail shopworker who had run up debts of 30k on credit cards, gone bankrupt, and then done it all again.  Unfortunately for her, her gran died as she was hitting peak credit, and so rather than a second bankruptcy, the inheritance went....

Edited by wherebee

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13 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Yes, this is the state of affairs.  It's not new though - back in the 90's my then girlfriend had a friend who was a retail shopworker who had run up debts of 30k on credit cards, gone bankrupt, and then done it all again.  Unfortunately for her, her gran died as she was hitting peak credit, and so rather than a second bankruptcy, the inheritance went....

Yes I remember hearing about people doing this in 2005 or so. But back then I was completely unable to comprehend it - to me bankruptcy then was the last resort and something that would carry a stigma forever. What a dick I was :) 

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40 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

Problem is once you've built up enough that you've got something to lose then that attitude becomes harder to have. From your posts I understand you own a house yourself in which case fair play to you for giving no fucks. I'm not able to do that, so my plan at the moment is to take my ball and fuck off somewhere else.

But if my neices or nephews asked me for advice on how to make the most out of life in the UK, I don't think I could hand on heart tell them to work, to strive, to try to get ahead, because I honestly believe that since they have nothing right now, their best bet would be to max out credit everywhere they can, and when they can't pay it back, just go bankrupt and start over again 12 months later. There is something very wrong in a world where that advice makes more sense than trying to build a future for themselves.

I couldn't live like most people, and so I don;t know how they do it - I can't even put myself in their shoes to try to comprehend how they cope with the madness.

My choice is to not spend money wherever possible on things that are not necessary. Nearly everything is bought secondhand. Nothing ever on HP

I've spent sub £5 on my mobile phone in the last 18 months - people only call me, and that includes for work. No TV. No subscriptions. Don't spend in pubs or restaurants, gyms, cinemas or theatres. Don't buy any unecessary 'stuff'. Haven't bought any clothes for years, other than work safety clothes.

I just deny the system cash. It's good that I favour free time.

Edited by Hopeful

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11 hours ago, stokiescum said:

That’s the problem I know I can get another 60k terrace and rent either mine out or the new one and get about 450 plus a month back .the morgage would be for about 30k.the interest will be low.    But let’s say I rent mine out it cost 49k  8years ago .its in effect would have cost me 38 k to rent it at 400 a month .its also brought me in close to 7k tax free by renting a room out .ok I have gone nuts in the last 6 months replaced the boiler windows doors  and new carpets etc that cost 10k but before I did that my maintenance costs were sub 500 quid in 7 years .zoopla is not a great tool I’m the first to admit but it estimates my house is worth 67k I’d go 60 maybe a bit lower due to haveing everything realy important done .in short I could easily live here another 10’years and expect no insane bills the boiler and system

have a 7 year warranty unless the roof caves in im

covered .was I a fool or not must be the question 

If you put your house on the market at well over 67k, check what zoopla then values it. Their estimate will have gone up, it largely just tries to justify current asking prices in an area. Check your value if another comes on locally.

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4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

If you put your house on the market at well over 67k, check what zoopla then values it. Their estimate will have gone up, it largely just tries to justify current asking prices in an area. Check your value if another comes on locally.

Zoopla is pretty crap doesn’t even matter if it’s worth

less that i

paid for it

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Nationwide -1.4% MOM -0.1%  YOY

 

https://www.financialreporter.co.uk/finance-news/house-price-growth-sees-first-annual-fall-since-2012-nationwide.html

 

I'm frankly amazed by this. As per previously mentioned we got outbid on a property we viewed even though our bid was a "cheeky" snap your hand off 2% under asking Phil Spencer special. It went at asking. Three properties we intended to view all gone SSTC. Estate agent rang us up cancelling appointment this afternoon on one.

Anyway I'm very pleased being SSTC ( completion supposedly end of this month...watch that overrun)and renting  a certainty if we sell.

Edited by crashmonitor

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44 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Nationwide -1.4% MOM -0.1%  YOY

 

https://www.financialreporter.co.uk/finance-news/house-price-growth-sees-first-annual-fall-since-2012-nationwide.html

 

I'm frankly amazed by this. As per previously mentioned we got outbid on a property we viewed even though our bid was a "cheeky" snap your hand off 2% under asking Phil Spencer special. It went at asking. Three properties we intended to view all gone SSTC. Estate agent rang us up cancelling appointment this afternoon on one.

Anyway I'm very pleased being SSTC ( completion supposedly end of this month...watch that overrun)and renting  a certainty if we sell.

Presumably you also have an eye on the rentals available then? Are there plenty about? Did that initial no evictions for 3 months get extended?

 

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On 29/06/2020 at 21:32, Green Devil said:

I think the problem for you, if you're working, you're expected to already have bought. If unfortunately you missed that boat you're right to be bitter. It's a shit show as you say and a real disincentive for the young, and those not already owning. At least when rates were higher it was a level playing field to rent or buy. Now it's grossly biased towards ownership. 

I know a couple, council employee and a legal eagle looking to buy themselves a holiday let. With all the messages from the government over the past 20 years, it's not surprising they want to buy another place. Just about everyone wants to buy property. They know currency is trash and property only goes one way. 

And this is the reason why the government will do all it can to avoid a house price  crash in nominal terms. All those owners and mortgage holders have a vote and they will certainly use it to get revenge on any government that allows their main asset to fall in value, or become unaffordable. There’s a school if thought that says that it’s good to align your strategy with the largest voting block.

Interest rate rises won’t be happening since the debt tail is now wagging the monetary policy dog.

Have you seen the graph on HOC lately? Prices don’t look too far out of kilter with historical values to me.

Not saying I agree with all this, but realistically, it’s how I see it.

Edit to add;

Fully Detached’s post a few above mine sums up the situation perfectly. We all have nieces, nephews, sons and daughters in that horrible position.

It all boils down to the fact that we need a new political direction in this country. Saying it though is the easy part. Somehow all those nieces, nephews, sons and daughters are going to have to get wise and do something about it.

 

 

Edited by Mirror Mirror

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It’s almost as if the answer to “how much is a house” is “35 years of mortgage debt payments” regardless of anything else, so you’d better get your debt payments started as young as possible. If you buy at say 40 and want to retire at 65 it’s not gonna happen.

It’s almost like the new social contract or something. Everyone takes on their 35 years of bank slavery and gets to feel good about it because the prices only go up.

Edited by JoeDavola

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House prices won’t drop nominally. Not until after 2028-30 anyway. 

Too many people sitting on the sidelines desperate to buy their little slave box and have been saving for their deposit. Their dream slave box based on their monthly payments. Suddenly they realise they can afford something bigger on their payments. Chomping at the bit. 

Likewise a large percentage of Mums and Dads have paid off their mortgages since the start of last 1997 start of boom and will be accessing their equity for children. 
Too many people remember 2007 and think ‘dam it why did I not buy them’? 

FOMO in action for next 10 years - as IRs stay low and go lower and governments throw even more at the property market and inflation starts to surge. 

As Fiat system collapses post 2028 - and we have the mother of all financial blow ups - the last of the people will be desperate to be out of cash. Crack up boom and ‘dash for assets’ that started in 2020 will have its final blow off.

As many have said “one can sit on the sidelines and moan and bitch and complain or one can play to the rules of the game and as they change and are manipulated by government.” 
 

Position yourselves......

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On 29/06/2020 at 23:05, stokiescum said:

That’s the problem I know I can get another 60k terrace and rent either mine out or the new one and get about 450 plus a month back .the morgage would be for about 30k.the interest will be low.    But let’s say I rent mine out it cost 49k  8years ago .its in effect would have cost me 38 k to rent it at 400 a month .its also brought me in close to 7k tax free by renting a room out .ok I have gone nuts in the last 6 months replaced the boiler windows doors  and new carpets etc that cost 10k but before I did that my maintenance costs were sub 500 quid in 7 years .zoopla is not a great tool I’m the first to admit but it estimates my house is worth 67k I’d go 60 maybe a bit lower due to haveing everything realy important done .in short I could easily live here another 10’years and expect no insane bills the boiler and system

have a 7 year warranty unless the roof caves in im

covered .was I a fool or not must be the question 

Think you’ve got it sorted, actually.

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