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Has Coronavirus officially killed the housing market?


Post-Covid, what 3 changes are you going to try to make? (max 3)  

119 members have voted

  1. 1. Post-Covid, what 3 changes are you going to try to make? (max 3)

    • Work from home more
    • Walk more (drive less)
    • Avoid Chinese goods
    • Shop locally
    • Quit working (bennies)
    • Retire earlier
    • Leave the UK
    • Come back to UK
    • Cook more own food
    • Eat out more
    • See family more
    • See family less!
    • More time on hobbies
    • Worry less
    • Get divorced
    • None of the above

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Anyone that had a 20% deposit before prices halved

I've just spent a while browsing the 118 forums since my previous post.  Tenants not paying, tenants already fucked off, not a registered business, mortgage company doesnt want to know, how will

I can hardly bear to go in the place. Obviously can't at the moment anyway, as marooned in the US. Makes my own father's death at home, in his own bed look like a lottery win. I have told the story be

Posted Images

Doesn't sound like a credit crunch is coming.

 

Quote

 

Record of the meeting between the Governor of the Bank of England and the Chancellor of the Exchequer to discuss the Financial Stability Report published on 6 August 2020

8) The FPC has carried out a “reverse stress test” to analyse how much worse than the central projection the economic outcome would need to be to jeopardise banks’ resilience and challenge their ability to lend to the wider economy. To deplete banks’ regulatory buffers of capital as much as in the 2019 stress test that was used to set their requirements, banks would need to incur £120 billion of credit losses. To generate that, the cumulative loss of economic output from the disruption associated with the Covid-19 outbreak would need to be around twice as big as in the MPC’s central projection, and be accompanied by a significant rise in unemployment to around 15%. Even then, banks would have space to absorb a further £80 billion of losses in their capital buffers, as they hold larger capital buffers than required by regulation.

 

 

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50 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Doesn't sound like a credit crunch is coming.

 

 

Metrobank share price keeps going lower. Market capitalisation is close to £100mn. Presumably capacity to absorb losses but not looking to make any money for a while and go for charity status?

 

7190227E-AFC2-472C-B81B-E0529D72E03B.jpeg

Edited by Ash4781b
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3 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

@Malthus - check this out; gotta be a typo right? 200 grand for a tiny terrace in East Belfast?

Am I missing something here?

https://www.propertypal.com/20-eastleigh-dale-belfast/660840

The box room has been turned into an office so great for working from home 😀😀

Looks like someone has watched homes under the hammer and thinks they will be millionaires this time next year 

Can’t see a lender agreeing with that valuation 

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On 31/03/2020 at 23:24, Popuplights said:

Exactly. My FIL is currently incarcerated for £4k a month....

I will top myself before allowing that to happen to me.

6 months will buy you enough street heroin to float on a cloud while you say your final goodbyes.

And have enough left over yo send you off.

No one poorly comes out of a home. You just need to hurry up the end for all parties - bar the medical n care team who make $$$$$$$$

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5 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

Metrobank share price keeps going lower. Market capitalisation is close to £100mn. Presumably capacity to absorb losses but not looking to make any money for a while and go for charity status?

 

7190227E-AFC2-472C-B81B-E0529D72E03B.jpeg

You'll have no housing market without banks.

ZIRP is destroying banks, so number of mortgages is lurching rapidly down.

Now home buyers need to stump up 40 per cent deposits to get a mortgage as economic devastation from coronavirus threatens a new credit crunch

  • TSB has withdrawn two-year mortgage deals with less than 40 per cent deposits
  • Barclays has ended mortgages for borrowers with less than a 25 per cent deposit
  • A Bank of England survey found banks expect to clamp down on all lending

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8850057/Home-buyers-stump-40-cent-deposits-TSB-Barclays-stop-handing-mortgages.html

This is the new reality. There maybe buyers but theres fuckall proceedable buyers.

Most owners will fail to sell.

My home region has bern stuck at 2004 nominal prices for 16 years.

Id love to know the number and size of mortgages. My guess is they are few n far between.

It's a very solvent, cash rich buyers market.

 

Edited by spygirl
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1 hour ago, spygirl said:

You'll have no housing market without banks.

ZIRP is destroying banks, so number of mortgages is lurching rapidly down.

Now home buyers need to stump up 40 per cent deposits to get a mortgage as economic devastation from coronavirus threatens a new credit crunch

  • TSB has withdrawn two-year mortgage deals with less than 40 per cent deposits
  • Barclays has ended mortgages for borrowers with less than a 25 per cent deposit
  • A Bank of England survey found banks expect to clamp down on all lending

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8850057/Home-buyers-stump-40-cent-deposits-TSB-Barclays-stop-handing-mortgages.html

This is the new reality. There maybe buyers but theres fuckall procedable buyers.

Most owners will fail to sell.

My home region has bern stuck at 2004 nominal prices for 16 years.

Id live to know the number and size of mortgages. My guess is they are few n far between.

It's a very solvent, cash rush buyers market.

 

Hang on the other post suggests no credit crunch but that article you linked suggests an extreme deterioration in credit conditions which will manifest as collapsing chains?

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41 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Hang on the other post suggests no credit crunch but that article you linked suggests an extreme deterioration in credit conditions which will manifest as collapsing chains?

Dont start using credit crunch.

That was Briwninsn spin to hide the massive fuckit.

Banks are seperate entities, away from Ukgov. They can choose whether to lend or not.

The banks know HP are too high. Too much risk, do they are being v choosy about who they lend to.

Yes, chains agreed in Soring will be failing now.

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55 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Hang on the other post suggests no credit crunch but that article you linked suggests an extreme deterioration in credit conditions which will manifest as collapsing chains?

In the article supposedly suggesting mortgage availability problems it actually stated

"Lenders signed off 84,700 mortgages in August, the most since October 2007"

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7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

No sign of a fall since August where I am.

Might be the pent up demand from lockdown and the market re-opening in May.

Absolutely mental here.

Woman offered over asking price. Then gets a full survey showing £60k of roof repairs required. But is still going ahead as she is scared of missing out.

Some people really have no idea of the value of money. Possibly because they didn't earn it.

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46 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

In the article supposedly suggesting mortgage availability problems it actually stated

"Lenders signed off 84,700 mortgages in August, the most since October 2007"

You need about 100k to keep up with the the 3 Ds.

From 2002, large numbers have been hoovered up by btl loons.

Now the btl are exiting. And the normal sellers still need to sell.

Car crash.

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On 17/10/2020 at 17:41, spygirl said:

You'll have no housing market without banks.

ZIRP is destroying banks, so number of mortgages is lurching rapidly down.

Now home buyers need to stump up 40 per cent deposits to get a mortgage as economic devastation from coronavirus threatens a new credit crunch

  • TSB has withdrawn two-year mortgage deals with less than 40 per cent deposits
  • Barclays has ended mortgages for borrowers with less than a 25 per cent deposit
  • A Bank of England survey found banks expect to clamp down on all lending

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8850057/Home-buyers-stump-40-cent-deposits-TSB-Barclays-stop-handing-mortgages.html

This is the new reality. There maybe buyers but theres fuckall proceedable buyers.

Most owners will fail to sell.

My home region has bern stuck at 2004 nominal prices for 16 years.

Id love to know the number and size of mortgages. My guess is they are few n far between.

It's a very solvent, cash rich buyers market.

 

And the LR figures for July are in.

Ignore the price chart. Noisy due to low transactions.

Go to the number sold.

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=scarborough&startmonth=07&startyear=2018&endmonth=07&endyear=2020

May, when houses were fly off shelf. Barely hit same as March, which was at multi year lows.

Sales then collapsed.

 

Checked with Laayds, which has some resemblance of an economy. Same

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=leeds&startmonth=07&startyear=2018&endmonth=07&endyear=2020

And Boro, which doesn't

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=middlesbrough&startmonth=07&startyear=2018&endmonth=07&endyear=2020

 

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Prompted me to take a look at “the other side” to see what the chatter is about the housing market..   don’t know what’s going on with their adverts (obscuring all the posts on IOS)..   but nothing helpful or insightful there,  which is a bit of a shame really.  They’ve really killed that place. 
 

My two cents,  I agree with Mr @Frank Hovis,  not staring down the barrel of a credit crunch is a good thing..  we already know from experience that if the global banking system is threatened then every central bank in the world will coordinate and step in to save it.

If it’s just a localised crash in lil’ ol Blighty..  and the banks can absorb it,  then what’s a minor property crash between friends?

Edited by Libspero
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On 13/10/2020 at 17:58, Frank Hovis said:

And it's not like you can just give up a house as you could foreign holidays or a car if it became too expensive.

It is a basic human need and if you have to additionally work, or run a business from home as you do, then you can't live in a tent or van or move back in with your parents.

I am sure that it has already crossed your mind but I would suggest looking for somewhere new as the IoW is being squeezed owing to the smallness of its rental market.  Hereford and Worcester always seem to come out high in terms of nice places to live whilst having low rents.

 

4 bed semi in Kidderminster £1,200 pm

29891_17383802_IMG_01_0000.JPG

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/98127995#/

Hold on a sec.

 

My old house, the one I rented between 2014 and 2019, at 695 PCM throught, was rented out to another couple after we left for 725, they are now moving out and I heard from my neighbour that the LL had to reduce to 600.

 

This is up in Alcester.

 

The crash is coming

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1 minute ago, OurDayWillCome said:

Houses going on the market for insane prices in my area and going under offer in days. Everyone I talk to has been, or know someone who has been, made redundant. Clown World!

My shit pit house and others locally, price being pushed up. They are selling at these pumped up prices to.

I can see 3 households never going out overtly bar school run. Might be working from home.

I live close to a major junction on the M60 Manchester circular.

March and before, if I got close to the junction from 4pm...30minutes added on to journey. I guess I live in office commuter belt for central Manchester.

Since March...nothing, no tail back at any rush hour time. Thats a massive amount of commuter traffic missing.

I assume, looking at the tightening mortgage options, the market is driven by pre retirement folk, retired and BOMAD, MEWing or affluent and not keen on interest rates or FTSE100 trackers.

There is is the off set of delayed transactions I suppose.

When this is cleared, furloughed ends as it is , unemoyment surely must kick in on the market?

Disclaimer. The govs unannounced new plans for their expansion of social/personal mortgage funding.

Thus far keeping the housing market going has been consistent.

 

 

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6 hours ago, OurDayWillCome said:

Houses going on the market for insane prices in my area and going under offer in days. Everyone I talk to has been, or know someone who has been, made redundant. Clown World!

Same where I live.  I've noticed the last couple of weeks that sales are starting to slow though but that isn't stopping new things coming onto the market at ever increasing ridiculous prices.

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7 hours ago, The Grey Man said:

My shit pit house and others locally, price being pushed up. They are selling at these pumped up prices to.

I can see 3 households never going out overtly bar school run. Might be working from home.

I live close to a major junction on the M60 Manchester circular.

March and before, if I got close to the junction from 4pm...30minutes added on to journey. I guess I live in office commuter belt for central Manchester.

Since March...nothing, no tail back at any rush hour time. Thats a massive amount of commuter traffic missing.

I assume, looking at the tightening mortgage options, the market is driven by pre retirement folk, retired and BOMAD, MEWing or affluent and not keen on interest rates or FTSE100 trackers.

There is is the off set of delayed transactions I suppose.

When this is cleared, furloughed ends as it is , unemoyment surely must kick in on the market?

Disclaimer. The govs unannounced new plans for their expansion of social/personal mortgage funding.

Thus far keeping the housing market going has been consistent.

 

 

Yep rightmove data concurs. The Market is supply/ demand dynamics. On rightmove you have 4317 properties listed as for sale in Manchester out of a stock total of 9613...giving a 55% SSTC ratio. Anything over 50% is fairly out of the ordinary, suggesting the Market is still balanced to sellers.

Even if activity dwindles into the Winter the percentage sold  is more indicative of price direction.

Fwiw I do expect that percentage to start to drop, if it doesn't then prices won't fall. But still above 50% where I live in Derbyshire south of you.

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