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How many people do you know who died of influenza in the UK before 2020?


Democorruptcy
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How many people do you know who died of influenza in the UK before 2020?  

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Us neither. Yet apparently there are many thousands every year, hence vaccinations.

Mrs. Eight's genealogical research didn't turn up anybody who had died of Spanish flu either.

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Frank Hovis

None, but fortunately I don't know anyone that has died of Covid either.

Statistically you are far more likely to have known someone who has died of flu with annual flu deaths between fifteen and sixty thousand and Covid deaths not even in four figures.

 

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OK, rephrase the question - How many people know what people actually died of?

Healthcare systems just tick the boxes for most likely.

Most people tend to die from a complications of conditions plus the medicaltreatment they get.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Suppressing deaths by suppressing life.

The other thing I'm noticing more and more is that the media is saying so and so died with Coronavirus, not of Coronavirus.

So how do we not know that most of the population already have this, and lots of these deaths are people who would have died anyway.

9 minutes ago, ccc said:

Ah the numbers I have been looking for. 

And surprise surprise they do indeed show all the so called covid deaths are making zero impact so far on the overall total. 

I couldn't believe the So-Called BBC was actually showing them (EDIT: it's not the beeb it's sky), as they don't really fit in with the narrative.

The presenter said something along the lines of "if the numbers move above the average then we'll really know we have a problem" ..... um the world's been shut down mate.

Edited by JoeDavola
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assetrichcashpoor

Also there’s at the moment we’re not being told who has died of it or died with it. I think the numbers of excess deaths will be very low and similar to a bad flu season where a small number (8,000-10,000) of otherwise healthy people die of flu. 

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Democorruptcy
17 minutes ago, assetrichcashpoor said:

Also there’s at the moment we’re not being told who has died of it or died with it. I think the numbers of excess deaths will be very low and similar to a bad flu season where a small number (8,000-10,000) of otherwise healthy people die of flu. 

I know that figure is often bandied about in the media but have you got a link to some data?

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21 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Total deaths in the UK in recent weeks are still lower on average compared to previous 5 years:

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEzVVXjTPv4

image.thumb.png.a6d409896c4d0cc50feb45b5a3a1e5ee.png

I was thinking you could run a little thought experiment, every day publish the figures for deaths and new cases from the same period last year of say cancer alongside the Covid-19 figures. 

You wouldn’t obviously get the exponential rise in cases/deaths but it would highlight the relative nature of things. 

I suspect the day to day data wouldn’t Ben there. 

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2 minutes ago, gilf said:

I was thinking you could run a little thought experiment, every day publish the figures for deaths and new cases from the same period last year of say cancer alongside the Covid-19 figures. 

You wouldn’t obviously get the exponential rise in cases/deaths but it would highlight the relative nature of things. 

I suspect the day to day data wouldn’t Ben there. 

Would be interesting.

But then a headline screaming "LESS PEOPLE ARE DYING THAN USUAL OVERALL" doesn't sell papers ;)

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6 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I know that figure is often bandied about in the media but have you got a link to some data?

Not sure there are accurate figures, at least not easily available.

https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6

This suggests 300-400 annually, i think a lot of the “thousands die from flu” comes from an increase in seasonal death during winter as mentioned in that report, essential the death rate goes up significantly in winter and while not directly attributed to flu it’s suspected it contributes to it. 

 

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An interesting statistic I heard on the radio (R4) a few weeks ago.

Quote

The probability of you dying from coronavirus in this epidemic is the same as the probability of you dying this year without coronavirus, irrespective of your age or health.

Ie, young people are unlikely to die this year anyway, and are unlikely to die of coronavirus, ill people might die this year anyway, and might die of coronavirus, octogenarians are likely to die (...etc).

Of course, the coronavirus deaths are 'in addition to' -- but this is biased towards youngsters -- for the healthy young (unlikely to die anyway) the coronavirus deaths are an absolute addition (ie, you add the two probabilities together), while for the very ill and very old the coronavirus deaths replace some 'deaths anyway' (ie, they're on their last legs and are going to die anyway this year or perhaps next).

 

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15 minutes ago, dgul said:

An interesting statistic I heard on the radio (R4) a few weeks ago.

Ie, young people are unlikely to die this year anyway, and are unlikely to die of coronavirus, ill people might die this year anyway, and might die of coronavirus, octogenarians are likely to die (...etc).

Of course, the coronavirus deaths are 'in addition to' -- but this is biased towards youngsters -- for the healthy young (unlikely to die anyway) the coronavirus deaths are an absolute addition (ie, you add the two probabilities together), while for the very ill and very old the coronavirus deaths replace some 'deaths anyway' (ie, they're on their last legs and are going to die anyway this year or perhaps next).

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000gwy8

The above I think.

The stats man was saying that basically the C19 deaths are those whod die anyhow.

 

 

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Virgil Caine
50 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Total deaths in the UK in recent weeks are still lower on average compared to previous 5 years:

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEzVVXjTPv4

image.thumb.png.a6d409896c4d0cc50feb45b5a3a1e5ee.png

Agreed but that 5 year weekly trend line was crossed in the last weeks ONS weekly death stats (we 20/03/2020 ) which is the first time a significant number of c19 deaths were included. There is about a 5 day lag in reporting deaths. Excess mortality in bad flu seasons is normally about 500-750 a week so that is a figure to watch

 

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1 hour ago, spygirl said:

OK, rephrase the question - How many people know what people actually died of?

Healthcare systems just tick the boxes for most likely.

Most people tend to die from a complications of conditions plus the medicaltreatment they get.

 

 

Natural Causes, which usually means it's not a murder. I do remember somebody exiting due to pneumonia, but a virus would not have had a name and a whole PR mechanism, back then.

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Democorruptcy
41 minutes ago, gilf said:

Not sure there are accurate figures, at least not easily available.

https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6

This suggests 300-400 annually, i think a lot of the “thousands die from flu” comes from an increase in seasonal death during winter as mentioned in that report, essential the death rate goes up significantly in winter and while not directly attributed to flu it’s suspected it contributes to it. 

 

Thanks for that.

The ONS don't seem to have figures that back up the large number of deaths from flu that PHE suggest. This is why I asked the poll question because if there really were 8000 to 10000 deaths from flu every year, wouldn't lots of us know people who had died of it?

 

fludeaths.jpg

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I studied rainfall at university. In the UK we have about 1500mm of rainfall a year. That works out at about an average of 4mm of rain a day. However we all know that for weeks at a time there is no rain and then you have a day when you get a fortnights worth of rain.

I'd imagine daily deaths are like that as well. We know there is an average of 2000 (?) daily deaths in the UK. However that can vary between maybe 1500 to 2500 deaths a day.

Seemingly a lot of people died after the millennium as they were looking forward to the year turning to 2000. After the Hogmanay they died because they no longer had something to look forward to. 

So far there has been very scant evidence that this virus is killing many people.....

Thanks @JoeDavola for providing a graph that we've been crying out for weeks. It's a pity the So-Called BBC couldn't supply this sort of information.

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4 minutes ago, Great Guy said:

So far there has been very scant evidence that this virus is killing many people.....

I tend to agree. I've had some sort of illness over the last month or two. It's not nice but not that severe. I'll never know what sort of virus it is unless I have to go to hospital.

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25 minutes ago, Great Guy said:

I studied rainfall at university. In the UK we have about 1500mm of rainfall a year. That works out at about an average of 4mm of rain a day. However we all know that for weeks at a time there is no rain and then you have a day when you get a fortnights worth of rain.

I'd imagine daily deaths are like that as well. We know there is an average of 2000 (?) daily deaths in the UK. However that can vary between maybe 1500 to 2500 deaths a day.

Seemingly a lot of people died after the millennium as they were looking forward to the year turning to 2000. After the Hogmanay they died because they no longer had something to look forward to. 

So far there has been very scant evidence that this virus is killing many people.....

Thanks @JoeDavola for providing a graph that we've been crying out for weeks. It's a pity the So-Called BBC couldn't supply this sort of information.

We are in peak dying season though.

 

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Caravan Monster

A mate works in the funeral industry and generally has an uptick in business feb - march, especially after a harsh winter. Been a quiet year for them so far...

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