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t_v 🏅

What if we are all wrong?

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Posted (edited)

A bit tin foil hattery but bear with me. What if we have it all wrong and they are already trying "herd immunity" through the back door?

Gov is still resisting bringing in a total lockdown like Italy/France and despite Hancock paying lip service to the "rules", they know that the sensible will stay inside but a large proportion of the country always knows better and will do whatever the fuck it wants.

The possible result? (Some wild assumptions here so work with me) UK infections/deaths will spike and then plateau at a higher level than other European countries, however after the measures are lifted, any inevitable second/third etc wave will be smaller and more manageable as a larger proportion of the population will have immunity.

2K+ deaths per day for months would probably be unpallatable if we went all Sweden but 1K+ for a few days and then a gradual drop until end of May when we ceremoniously lift the draconian measures and get on with life would be an acceptable outcome in anyone's book.

So when in Sep, Italy/France have their second wave and are back at 1K death levels, we are much lower and don't need full lockdown (schools and non essential businesses closed) and can manage the situation with isolation/distancing, contact tracing etc.

Maybe I am simply giving the government too much credit and they are just an incompetent bunch like all before them but I sincerely hope this time I am wrong.

Edited by t_v 🏅

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42 minutes ago, t_v 🏅 said:

A bit tin foil hattery but bear with me. What if we have it all wrong and they are already trying "herd immunity" through the back door?

Gov is still resisting bringing in a total lockdown like Italy/France and despite Hancock paying lip service to the "rules", they know that the sensible will stay inside but a large proportion of the country always knows better and will do whatever the fuck it wants.

The possible result? (Some wild assumptions here so work with me) UK infections/deaths will spike and then plateau at a higher level than other European countries, however after the measures are lifted, any inevitable second/third etc wave will be smaller and more manageable as a larger proportion of the population will have immunity.

2K+ deaths per day for months would probably be unpallatable if we went all Sweden but 1K+ for a few days and then a gradual drop until end of May when we ceremoniously lift the draconian measures and get on with life would be an acceptable outcome in anyone's book.

So when in Sep, Italy/France have their second wave and are back at 1K death levels, we are much lower and don't need full lockdown (schools and non essential businesses closed) and can manage the situation with isolation/distancing, contact tracing etc.

Maybe I am simply giving the government too much credit and they are just an incompetent bunch like all before them but I sincerely hope this time I am wrong.

It's very clear to me that the UK gvt have been trying this all along.  Look at what they do:

  • continue to allow flights in from the rest of the world
  • not enforce social distancing in shops/shopping centres/enriched areas
  • allow cheltenham and other large events
  • not testing NHS workers, even those with symptoms
  • allowing celebrities with it to come out of isolation early

I suspect that someone has said that you need to get over 50% of the population infected and recovered by the time of wave 2 in November, otherwise next Christmas is going to be carnage.  They'd never ever admit it though.

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Plan is going to look a bit fucked up if the PM dies and then the immunity acquired by the infected/recovered proves inadequate or too short term. 

I would imagine any replacement PM would have Cummings and all the special advisors associated with him removed instantly. 

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I can't believe that the government would actually think this is a good idea. They have to know that it's highly unlikely that catching SARS2 once will give you any long lasting immunity.

I'm starting to think they're using it to clean up the gene pool a bit and give everyone a dose of reality. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, spunko said:

Never in the history of everything has the UK public sector been even one step ahead. It's too cumbersome and bureaucratic to try anything like you suggest.

This,  despite trying to appear on top of it.. all governments have been caught in the headlights.  All responses have been reactionary and have just followed global momentum / what other countries are doing.

Truth is..  nobody really knows what to do or what is best..  we’ve never been through anything like this (recently at least).

Edited by Libspero

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I work(ed) for a very large organisation and whilst the majority of the management  were in truth merely box-tickers, at the corporate level there were a small number of very, very bright people who appeared to pull the strings.

Call me naive (and I'm sure  you probably will) but the government employs a lot of people and a quite a few of them will be genuinely clever cunts who are quite capable of taking the actual data, doing the sums and hence working out the most likely best plan. 

Boris, Gove et al are not stupid and surely they must be listening ?

So why don't they tell us what they are planning to do ? is it so politically unpalatable that they are frightened to tell us ? or have they realised that they have properly fucked up and don't know what to do from here.....

 

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7 minutes ago, Bornagain said:

I work(ed) for a very large organisation and whilst the majority of the management  were in truth merely box-tickers, at the corporate level there were a small number of very, very bright people who appeared to pull the strings.

Call me naive (and I'm sure  you probably will) but the government employs a lot of people and a quite a few of them will be genuinely clever cunts who are quite capable of taking the actual data, doing the sums and hence working out the most likely best plan. 

Boris, Gove et al are not stupid and surely they must be listening ?

So why don't they tell us what they are planning to do ? is it so politically unpalatable that they are frightened to tell us ? or have they realised that they have properly fucked up and don't know what to do from here.....

 

Doesnt work like in pubcli sector/government.

In a private company, theright level person can do something and kick arses and changestuff in a few days.

In the public sector, theres meeting, followed by meeting, then someone is away, so its delayed, then it goes to the lower levels via layer after layer.

 

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1 minute ago, spygirl said:

n the public sector, theres meeting, followed by meeting, then someone is away, so its delayed, then it goes to the lower levels via layer after layer.

That is the stereotype, but is it true ?

and if it is true then surely in times of crisis this bureaucracy could be swept away, desperate times require desperate measures ?

 

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7 minutes ago, Bornagain said:

That is the stereotype, but is it true ?

and if it is true then surely in times of crisis this bureaucracy could be swept away, desperate times require desperate measures ?

 

Yes.

 

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6 minutes ago, Bornagain said:

If this is true, then we are probably fucked.

A politician with real conviction, courage and personality is required, and the only likely candidate is in hospital.

Over the years, Ive been into several high level meetings with various public sector bodies, from the LA to the MoD.

Meeting starts, stuff read out. Myself and colleagues make notes for later questions.

QnA start.

At this point, in every single meeting of this sort, you get the overwhelming feeling that the public sector group are totally unprepared, clueless and got the job by anything but ability.

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Over the years, Ive been into several high level meetings with various public sector bodies, from the LA to the MoD.

Meeting starts, stuff read out. Myself and colleagues make notes for later questions.

QnA start.

At this point, in every single meeting of this sort, you get the overwhelming feeling that the public sector group are totally unprepared, clueless and got the job by anything but ability.

 

 

 

I'd say it depends heavily on accountability.

Quote

Sam -- you say that we're running out of capacity on our infrastructure, what does that mean?

You need to spend more money.

We'll think about it.

Fine, but we will not be responsible. If we're asked why it stops working, we will mention this meeting where the attendees are: X, Y and Z on this date where we have presented the problem ahead of time and proposed mitigation techniques. Should this transpire, we will report the minutes of this meeting to your G-CLOUD purchase ledger..

 

 

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5 hours ago, t_v 🏅 said:

A bit tin foil hattery but bear with me. What if we have it all wrong and they are already trying "herd immunity" through the back door?

Gov is still resisting bringing in a total lockdown like Italy/France and despite Hancock paying lip service to the "rules", they know that the sensible will stay inside but a large proportion of the country always knows better and will do whatever the fuck it wants.

The possible result? (Some wild assumptions here so work with me) UK infections/deaths will spike and then plateau at a higher level than other European countries, however after the measures are lifted, any inevitable second/third etc wave will be smaller and more manageable as a larger proportion of the population will have immunity.

2K+ deaths per day for months would probably be unpallatable if we went all Sweden but 1K+ for a few days and then a gradual drop until end of May when we ceremoniously lift the draconian measures and get on with life would be an acceptable outcome in anyone's book.

So when in Sep, Italy/France have their second wave and are back at 1K death levels, we are much lower and don't need full lockdown (schools and non essential businesses closed) and can manage the situation with isolation/distancing, contact tracing etc.

Maybe I am simply giving the government too much credit and they are just an incompetent bunch like all before them but I sincerely hope this time I am wrong.

If this is their approach then they have a) unnecessarily trashed the UK economy with their lock-down on the majority of businesses, and b) wasted billions of UK tax supporting such a scenario...

...such an ill conceived idea would not be bad policy, it would be tantamount to criminal negligence.

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Posted (edited)

I think their plan has always been to flatten the curve next winter, not now. They could have gone into more severe lock down quicker but more cases this spring reduces them next winter. A lot of them will die and a lot will hopefully be immune.

Just hope you cannot get it twice because the first attack might make you more vulnerable to a second. 

Edited by Democorruptcy

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2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Just hope you cannot get it twice because the first attack might make you more vulnerable to a second. 

That's the great unknown but didn't the doctor who tried to alert us to this die due to a second attack / infection.

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1 minute ago, eek said:

That's the great unknown but didn't the doctor who tried to alert us to this die due to a second attack / infection.

He died with lots of other doctors/med staff, who knows, could well have been bumped off anyway. A large viral load seems deadly though no matter what age. 

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2 minutes ago, onlyme said:

He died with lots of other doctors/med staff, who knows, could well have been bumped off anyway. A large viral load seems deadly though no matter what age. 

There appears to be several theories why some younger folk are vulnerable.

One is large viral load/exposure, another is that it's genetic. Perhaps either are enough?

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we're not all wrong, some of us have already been suggesting this in one form or another. Herd immunity has always been the exit strategy, the rest is about how we achieve it in a way the public will accept.

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19 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Just hope you cannot get it twice because the first attack might make you more vulnerable to a second. 

Why?...i can only assume that you mean in that the virus is not cleared by the immune reaction and lays dormant...I don't know of any viral pathogens where this is the case but would be interested to see the scientific evidence (genuine request).

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, spunko said:

Never in the history of everything has the UK public sector been even one step ahead. It's too cumbersome and bureaucratic to try anything like you suggest.

except in this case, that works for the policy. If you want people to catch it, you need/expect the public sector to do a poor job at containing it.

Edited by snaga

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