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US Jobless Claims - Thurs 8th April


SillyBilly
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Roll up for round 3 predictions. Previous rounds:

Round 1: 3.3M

Round 2: 6.6M

Round 3 is for WC 30th March (ending 3rd April).

My guess is 5M on the nose.

*9th April should read in the title*

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This is going to be a noisy one but I think another whopper at 6m+.

Followed by another 4m+ next week setting the stage nicely for a -10m Non Farm Payroll print come the end of April (you heard it here first, although I predicted it also last Friday 03/04 and I am possibly way off/wrong etc).

@spunko: do I win anything extra if I keep getting these right (permanent ribbon next to my handle, if only for consistently humiliating all my "professional" investor (i.e. banker) acquaintances,  I have grown attached to the litte thing now B|)

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16 hours ago, t_v 🏅 said:

This is going to be a noisy one but I think another whopper at 6m+.

Followed by another 4m+ next week setting the stage nicely for a -10m Non Farm Payroll print come the end of April (you heard it here first, although I predicted it also last Friday 03/04 and I am possibly way off/wrong etc).

@spunko: do I win anything extra if I keep getting these right (permanent ribbon next to my handle, if only for consistently humiliating all my "professional" investor (i.e. banker) acquaintances,  I have grown attached to the litte thing now B|)

I hate self quoting but (self) praise where (self) praise is due.

I will accept further medals with pleasure: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-surge-in-unemployment-claims-expected-to-continue-11586424605

Off to taunt the "professionals", lol I love schadenfreude.

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6.6M jobs gone last week so almost 17M gone in 3 weeks. Lets see where we are next week...Interesting graph porn as charts continuing to go off-scale.

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23 hours ago, t_v 🏅 said:

I hate self quoting but (self) praise where (self) praise is due.

I will accept further medals with pleasure: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-surge-in-unemployment-claims-expected-to-continue-11586424605

Off to taunt the "professionals", lol I love schadenfreude.

A double medal ??? This would be a step too far I think

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21 hours ago, SillyBilly said:

6.6M jobs gone last week so almost 17M gone in 3 weeks. Lets see where we are next week...Interesting graph porn as charts continuing to go off-scale.

And yet the Dow Jones has recovered a big chunk of it's losses....

image.png.d6c8a204c043e352ca657bb5a0a4a821.png

 

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Virgil Caine
1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

And yet the Dow Jones has recovered a big chunk of it's losses....

image.png.d6c8a204c043e352ca657bb5a0a4a821.png

 

The Dow loves it when people are sacked.

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6 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

And yet the Dow Jones has recovered a big chunk of it's losses....

image.png.d6c8a204c043e352ca657bb5a0a4a821.png

 

I think that in a few weeks we will have the Dow back at 30,000 while the US is going through another Depression. Some GDP estimates for Q2 are close to -30%.

More proof (if you needed any) of how the markets do not reflect the real economy and are simply the playground of the 20%.

Edited by t_v 🏅
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6 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

And yet the Dow Jones has recovered a big chunk of it's losses....

image.png.d6c8a204c043e352ca657bb5a0a4a821.png

 

The market has seen we're past the peak. Its priced in until the next wave. 

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A tremendous # on the lung
6 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

The market has seen we're past the peak. Its priced in until the next wave. 

I thought markets were supposed to be forward looking?

Maybe they are looking 5 years down the line?

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3 minutes ago, BBH said:

I thought markets were supposed to be forward looking?

Maybe they are looking 5 years down the line?

The markets are not discounting anything as price discovery is suspended.

It did so when the number of the beast printed on the S&P and the FED started printing.

This has been the only game in town since. Artificially low rates, FED QE, corporates load up on cheap debt and gorge on buybacks and divis.

Same now. We are looking at a Depression that will make the Great Depression look like a walk in the park.

And yet (if I am right) the markets are going to be back at ATH in a few weeks, right in the middle of an once in a generation Depression.

Forger fundamentals, discounting etc and frontrun the only thing that matters: printing baby.

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10 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I have to admit I don't understand short term market logic. Even with the QE.

 

Joe there is no logic if you apply the old standards: fundamentals, profitability, earnings etc.

The talking heads on Bloomberg/CNBC might be paying lip service to them but they know that this is all for show.

The markets have the money tree (the FED) and they are just picking the fruit.

Of course the amounts are getting bigger with every cycle and eventually there is going to be an almighty crash but if you are making like a bandit you leave that for another day.

Crack and whores are not going to pay for themeselves you know and that is the event horizon of your average trader (honestly, I know many).

Edited by t_v 🏅
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20 minutes ago, t_v 🏅 said:

Joe there is no logic if you apply the old standards: fundamentals, profitability, earnings etc.

The talking heads on Bloomberg/CNBC might be paying lip service to them but they know that this is all for show.

The markets have the money tree (the FED) and they are just picking the fruit.

Of course the amounts are getting bigger with every cycle and eventually there is going to be an almighty crash but if you are making like a bandit you leave that for another day.

Crack and whores are not going to pay for themeselves you know and that is the event horizon of your average trader (honestly, I know many).

I know a bloke who's son is a 20-something trader. He describes it basically as a big casino.

I do wonder whether these short term trends consist of:

1. People in the know sell their stocks at the peak.

2. Stocks tumble, with the plebs selling their stocks at various points on the way down. People's pension savings get destroyed.

3. People in the know who sold at the top buy back the stocks at a huge discount.

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12 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I know a bloke who's son is a 20-something trader. He describes it basically as a big casino.

I do wonder whether these short term trends consist of:

1. People in the know sell their stocks at the peak.

2. Stocks tumble, with the plebs selling their stocks at various points on the way down. People's pension savings get destroyed.

3. People in the know who sold at the top buy back the stocks at a huge discount.

Nothing of the kind.

You don't need to be in the know. Just close to the FED (free) money and understand the mechanics of the bubble.

After the BFC the (fraudulent) mortgage money dried up and needed something else to take its place, the FED just blew more bubbles with QE, mainly fueling corporate debt.

Corporates kept issuing debt at ridiculously (and artificially) low yields, used money to buy back stocks and issue nice, fat divis.

Rinse and repeat. Dow @ 30,000.

In a casino there is this (regressive I know right?) notion that if you bet on red and the ball lands on black you lose.

In the modern markets the FED will fund all your subsequent double bets on red in perpetuity until you get your money back.

Wouldn't you keep on betting on red forever under the circumstances?

Edited by t_v 🏅
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The Masked Tulip

Long but fascinating insights into what is going on in the US - bust companies, bust pension funds, massive unemployment, people in service jobs now getting more unemployment benefits than they earned in the jobs they lost, zero growth, billionaires and dodgy companies getting the trillions.

 

 

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PatronizingGit
11 hours ago, t_v 🏅 said:

Nothing of the kind.

You don't need to be in the know. Just close to the FED (free) money and understand the mechanics of the bubble.

After the BFC the (fraudulent) mortgage money dried up and needed something else to take its place, the FED just blew more bubbles with QE, mainly fueling corporate debt.

Corporates kept issuing debt at ridiculously (and artificially) low yields, used money to buy back stocks and issue nice, fat divis.

Rinse and repeat. Dow @ 30,000.

In a casino there is this (regressive I know right?) notion that if you bet on red and the ball lands on black you lose.

In the modern markets the FED will fund all your subsequent double bets on red in perpetuity until you get your money back.

Wouldn't you keep on betting on red forever under the circumstances?

I remember thinking this 10 years or so back...why does that twat Greenspan call it irrational exuberance when there is nothing irrational about it if you know you'll get bailed

Whole point of markets is greed is supposed to be balanced with fear.

I honestly think Brown giving the BoE independence and 'de-politicizing' monetary policy (yeah, right) has been one of the most damaging things in our economic history. In essence, taking it out of the red-blue democracy arena (to the extent that exists) the media never talk about the utter shit show that the BoE has created over the last 20 years. They cant frame it in an adversarial manner, so they just bypass it. 

Really, do you ever hear the media criticize Carney, or King? Theyre like some priestly class. They arent even talked about. Their status is like Royalty. Unquestioned and simply accepted. And yet, since independence in 1997, the BoE has presided over the longest period of wage stagnation in recorded wage history, some 250 years, 2 massive stock market crashes, 3 massive bubbles. Two housing bubbles. Inflation that routinely outstrips wages. 

At least before 1997, interest rate decisions generally looked to at least as long as the govt thought it would remain in power, and were constrained by knowing that if they have too much of a crack up boom before an election the media will be sniffing it out. 

 

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PatronizingGit
9 hours ago, The Masked Tulip said:

Interesting point here about people being forced to pay more taxes and work longer to bail out public sector pensions in the US.

 

According to Denninger and his 'maths' US federal level pensions are fine, and the state and lower level ones can give haircuts (as happened in Detroit)

 

I dont know how much Denninger is correct. He went, almost overnight, from blaming all US economic problems on the monetary system (namely, banks can loan out essentially endless amounts of credit, from nothing, that competes with savings built from accumulated production) to the US healthcare system. 

 

I have to say, to me, when I look at the figures, I dont see a massive pension problem. Its one that has grown slowly, at a lower rate than overall productivity growth (3 days of work now achieves as much as 5 days in the mid 70s, and yet real household income has been stagnant in that period), and that peaks in around 8 years time when more boomers start dieing than retiring. A lot of our fiscal problems are everywhere, rather than just pensions. And I think they are now designed in problems, because so much of the public sector, and the private contractor industry around it, is little more than a make work scheme.  

We are however, lugging around a huge financial sector that seems to do little other than subsidize London. It just seems logical. Wealth comes from productivity. By and large, the financial sector produces no wealth. It merely transfers wealth, from person to person, asset class to asset class. Perhaps making some (london) very rich. But, overall for the economy, a zero sum game. 

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25 minutes ago, PatronizingGit said:

I remember thinking this 10 years or so back...why does that twat Greenspan call it irrational exuberance when there is nothing irrational about it if you know you'll get bailed

Whole point of markets is greed is supposed to be balanced with fear.

I honestly think Brown giving the BoE independence and 'de-politicizing' monetary policy (yeah, right) has been one of the most damaging things in our economic history. In essence, taking it out of the red-blue democracy arena (to the extent that exists) the media never talk about the utter shit show that the BoE has created over the last 20 years. They cant frame it in an adversarial manner, so they just bypass it. 

Really, do you ever hear the media criticize Carney, or King? Theyre like some priestly class. They arent even talked about. Their status is like Royalty. Unquestioned and simply accepted. And yet, since independence in 1997, the BoE has presided over the longest period of wage stagnation in recorded wage history, some 250 years, 2 massive stock market crashes, 3 massive bubbles. Two housing bubbles. Inflation that routinely outstrips wages. 

At least before 1997, interest rate decisions generally looked to at least as long as the govt thought it would remain in power, and were constrained by knowing that if they have too much of a crack up boom before an election the media will be sniffing it out. 

 

The problem is that the Central Banks have never been independent, just a conduit for Interventionism, with independence just a cover to deflect criticism (as you very insightfully pointed out).

In the US the FED is now owned by Trump with the new legislation that has been passed recently. The independence fig leaf is gone.

Will Trump not push for printing until the DOW makes new All Time Highs? Yeah right.

Dow @ 40,000 and counting.

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The Masked Tulip
3 hours ago, PatronizingGit said:

According to Denninger and his 'maths' US federal level pensions are fine, and the state and lower level ones can give haircuts (as happened in Detroit)

 

I dont know how much Denninger is correct. He went, almost overnight, from blaming all US economic problems on the monetary system (namely, banks can loan out essentially endless amounts of credit, from nothing, that competes with savings built from accumulated production) to the US healthcare system. 

 

I have to say, to me, when I look at the figures, I dont see a massive pension problem. Its one that has grown slowly, at a lower rate than overall productivity growth (3 days of work now achieves as much as 5 days in the mid 70s, and yet real household income has been stagnant in that period), and that peaks in around 8 years time when more boomers start dieing than retiring. A lot of our fiscal problems are everywhere, rather than just pensions. And I think they are now designed in problems, because so much of the public sector, and the private contractor industry around it, is little more than a make work scheme.  

We are however, lugging around a huge financial sector that seems to do little other than subsidize London. It just seems logical. Wealth comes from productivity. By and large, the financial sector produces no wealth. It merely transfers wealth, from person to person, asset class to asset class. Perhaps making some (london) very rich. But, overall for the economy, a zero sum game. 

 

 

In the video I posted abouve I liked the point she made that people are going to see their taxes shoot up now, prices go up and people are going to have to work longer. But the fireman next door, she said, will be very comfortable indeed as their pensions will be bailed out.

Apparently Illinois pension fund almost went bust this week. But will be OK now as the trillions will see it bailed out. But tens of millions of people with their own pensions will get no bail-out.

 

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14 hours ago, The Masked Tulip said:

Interesting point here about people being forced to pay more taxes and work longer to bail out public sector pensions in the US.

 

There is no reason to pay taxes they long ago stopped caring about us. 

Who has paid there council tax 

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