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Death numbers showing progress


BWW
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Have Covid-19 infections peaked in the UK?  

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Democorruptcy

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On 07/04/2020 at 16:38, kibuc said:

Really encouraging numbers reported in the last few days. The averages for the last 2 and 3 days, 613 and 615 hospital deaths respectively, are below the full-week average of 625. Are we at the peak? If so, it might be that we'll see a week-on-week drop in hospital deaths reported on Friday.

Cheers. Did my own figures. I can see why you thought the 2 days looked better now but not after the 786 on Tuesday. The 7 day rolling was still increasing daily. Those 2 figures were just the weekend false hope.

    Rolling 7 Day New Deaths Total Deaths
Friday 06/03/20   1 1
Saturday 07/03/20   1 2
Sunday 08/03/20   0 2
Monday 09/03/20   1 3
Tuesday 10/03/20   3 6
Wednesday 11/03/20   0 6
Thursday 12/03/20 1 2 8
Friday 13/03/20 1 3 11
Saturday 14/03/20 3 10 21
Sunday 15/03/20 5 14 35
Monday 16/03/20 5 0 35
Tuesday 17/03/20 9 36 71
Wednesday 18/03/20 14 32 103
Thursday 19/03/20 19 41 144
Friday 20/03/20 23 27 171
Saturday 21/03/20 30 62 233
Sunday 22/03/20 35 48 281
Monday 23/03/20 43 54 335
Tuesday 24/03/20 50 87 422
Wednesday 25/03/20 51 41 463
Thursday 26/03/20 62 115 578
Friday 27/03/20 84 181 759
Saturday 28/03/20 112 260 1019
Sunday 29/03/20 135 209 1228
Monday 30/03/20 153 180 1408
Tuesday 31/03/20 195 381 1789
Wednesday 01/04/20 270 563 2352
Thursday 02/04/20 335 569 2921
Friday 03/04/20 407 684 3605
Saturday 04/04/20 471 708 4313
Sunday 05/04/20 529 621 4934
Monday 06/04/20 566 439 5373
Tuesday 07/04/20 624 786 6159
Wednesday 08/04/20 678 938 7097
Thursday 09/04/20 722 881 7978
Friday 10/04/20 765 980 8958

                         INCREASE 7d average on previous day / pct


06/03/1920          
07/03/1920          
08/03/1920          
09/03/1920          
10/03/1920          
11/03/1920          
12/03/1920        1
13/03/1920    0    1
14/03/1920    200    3
15/03/1920    67    5
16/03/1920    0    5
17/03/1920    80    9
18/03/1920    56    14
19/03/1920    36    19
20/03/1920    21    23
21/03/1920    30    30
22/03/1920    17    35
23/03/1920    23    43
24/03/1920    16    50
25/03/1920    2    51
26/03/1920    22    62
27/03/1920    35    84
28/03/1920    33    112
29/03/1920    21    135
30/03/1920    13    153
31/03/1920    27    195
01/04/1920    38    270
02/04/1920    24    335
03/04/1920    21    407
04/04/1920    16    471
05/04/1920    12    529
06/04/1920    7    566
07/04/1920    10    624
08/04/1920    9    678
09/04/1920    6    722
10/04/1920    6    765

Quote from the main thread. The increase looks like it's coming under control to me.

Edited by spunko
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Unfortunate our civil servants won't record accurate numbers over the weekend so the 7 day rolling needed to smooth that. Because of the bank holiday it may be even more messed up.

 

Here's the 3-day rolling average increase. No obvious trend.

 

                            INCREASE 3d average /pct  

                                            3 day average

06/03/1920                 0.333333
07/03/1920    100    1
08/03/1920    0        1
09/03/1920    0        1
10/03/1920    100    1
11/03/1920    0        1
12/03/1920    25    2
13/03/1920    0        2
14/03/1920    200    5
15/03/1920    80    9
16/03/1920    -11    8
17/03/1920    108    17
18/03/1920    36    23
19/03/1920    60    36
20/03/1920    -8    33
21/03/1920    30    43
22/03/1920    5    46
23/03/1920    20    55
24/03/1920    15    63
25/03/1920    -4    61
26/03/1920    34    81
27/03/1920    39    112
28/03/1920    65    185
29/03/1920    17    217
30/03/1920    0    216
31/03/1920    19    257
01/04/1920    46    375
02/04/1920    35    504
03/04/1920    20    605
04/04/1920    8    654
05/04/1920    3    671
06/04/1920    -12    589
07/04/1920    4    615
08/04/1920    17    721
09/04/1920    20    868
10/04/1920    7    933
 

Edited by BWW
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5 hours ago, BWW said:

Quote from the main thread. The increase looks like it's coming under control to me.

Here are dailies, weekly averages and day-to-day changes in weekly averages. The downtrend is rather obvious. 

48    35.00    116.11%
54    39.86    113.88%
87    50.00    125.45%
41    51.43    102.86%
115    62.00    120.56%
181    83.14    134.10%
260    112.29    135.05%
209    135.29    120.48%
180    153.29    113.31%
381    195.29    127.40%
563    269.86    138.19%
569    334.71    124.03%
684    406.57    121.47%
708    470.57    115.74%
621    529.43    112.51%
439    566.43    106.99%
786    624.29    110.21%
938    677.86    108.58%
881    722.43    106.58%
980    764.71    105.85%
917    794.57    103.90%

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Happy Renting

The UK figures are certainly improving, implicitly as a result of the belated 'lockdown'. Deaths only up 9.2% today.

US-based healthdata has revised it's total UK death prediction downwards from over 60K to 37494 , the last death expected in late May. (But still an outside chance deaths could be above 60K).  They think the deaths will peak in around 6 days time.

All (relatively) good news.

But UK death predictions are still way above those for Italy, Germany or Spain. Someone in the UK has screwed up the UK's response, probably by pursuing the stupid herd immunity idea, delaying 'lockdown', and sending confused messages. Resulting in perhaps 10,000 avoidable deaths (my guesstimate).

Perhaps that deserves an ironic slow handclap at 8pm.

Edited by Happy Renting
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I've got a time and space portal in my spare bedroom. I just went through it now. I popped up in communist Russia. I spoke to some Russian and he said they were well ahead of their target in tractor production. None of the tractors have engines but since they've beaten their target everyone is happy. 

I wonder at what point the government will decide to end this lockdown and decide to reduce the deaths from the virus?

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1 hour ago, Happy Renting said:

Someone in the UK has screwed up the UK's response, probably by pursuing the stupid herd immunity idea, delaying 'lockdown', and sending confused messages. Resulting in perhaps 10,000 avoidable deaths (my guesstimate). 

Perhaps that deserves an ironic slow handclap at 8pm.

Herd immunity idea sure looks stupid if you abandon it half way and go into lockdown. You still get huge infection numbers and none of the economy-saving, society-saving and, ultimately, life-saving benefits that keeping people free was supposed to bring. 

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3 hours ago, Happy Renting said:

The UK figures are certainly improving, implicitly as a result of the belated 'lockdown'. Deaths only up 9.2% today.

US-based healthdata has revised it's total UK death prediction downwards from over 60K to 37494 , the last death expected in late May. (But still an outside chance deaths could be above 60K).  They think the deaths will peak in around 6 days time.

All (relatively) good news.

But UK death predictions are still way above those for Italy, Germany or Spain. Someone in the UK has screwed up the UK's response, probably by pursuing the stupid herd immunity idea, delaying 'lockdown', and sending confused messages. Resulting in perhaps 10,000 avoidable deaths (my guesstimate).

Perhaps that deserves an ironic slow handclap at 8pm.

I think most of the deaths so far are attributable to the earlier "no idea" phase of the government response.

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10 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

death from pneumonia massively down worldwide, wonder why

they're mispelling it?

4 hours ago, whitevanman said:

Same for deaths from flu

Don't go telling me that after all this droning of dog walkers we won't even get a blip in the excess death charts?

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whitevanman
2 minutes ago, Zanu Bob said:

Don't go telling me that after all this droning of dog walkers we won't even get a blip in the excess death charts?

My guess is that we'll get a bit of a blip but the average over the year will be normal. 

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11 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

death from pneumonia massively down worldwide, wonder why

I take it this is your little joke. Even the So-Called BBC are saying "the death count for yesterday for people WITH CV" rather than "deaths attributable to CV"

Here are deaths for the last 5 years for over 85's by week. Can you spot the surge for this year?

 

FB_IMG_1586633893183.jpg

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Saw someone mention on Twitter (not that I neccassarily trust the viewpoint source!) that gov may be managing the figures to stay below the 1k per day.  Does have seemed to got perilously close a few times without going over so can understand their scepticism

Meanwhile German economist Richard Werner 

 

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37 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

Saw someone mention on Twitter (not that I neccassarily trust the viewpoint source!) that gov may be managing the figures to stay below the 1k per day.  Does have seemed to got perilously close a few times without going over so can understand their scepticism

Meanwhile German economist Richard Werner 

 

If I had to chose between these 2 Dicks, i‘d chose Werner.

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Democorruptcy
12 hours ago, BWW said:

Quote from the main thread. The increase looks like it's coming under control to me.

I'd like to see the rolling 7 day average drop down (Right column). I don't mean just over the Easter weekend, Wed is the next important day.

Saturday 28/03/20 1019 260 112
Sunday 29/03/20 1228 209 135
Monday 30/03/20 1408 180 153
Tuesday 31/03/20 1789 381 195
Wednesday 01/04/20 2352 563 270
Thursday 02/04/20 2921 569 335
Friday 03/04/20 3605 684 407
Saturday 04/04/20 4313 708 471
Sunday 05/04/20 4934 621 529
Monday 06/04/20 5373 439 566
Tuesday 07/04/20 6159 786 624
Wednesday 08/04/20 7097 938 678
Thursday 09/04/20 7978 881 722
Friday 10/04/20 8958 980 765
Saturday 11/04/20 9875 917 795
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12 minutes ago, Reck B said:

If I had to chose between these 2 Dicks, i‘d chose Werner.

Haha, I quite like werner but don't know his stuff in depth when I've seen him speak he's lucid and has no problem calling out others.  The other dick is more of a sourpuss moany bag.

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Democorruptcy
5 hours ago, kibuc said:

Herd immunity idea sure looks stupid if you abandon it half way and go into lockdown. You still get huge infection numbers and none of the economy-saving, society-saving and, ultimately, life-saving benefits that keeping people free was supposed to bring. 

The way they have played it only makes sense to me if they are aiming for a flatter curve over the course of a year. Pushing some through now before hopefully a summer lull, then the winter return. 

 

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Gloommonger
1 hour ago, Dogtania said:

Saw someone mention on Twitter (not that I neccassarily trust the viewpoint source!) that gov may be managing the figures to stay below the 1k per day.  Does have seemed to got perilously close a few times without going over so can understand their scepticism

Meanwhile German economist Richard Werner 

 

And what's the death rate without intervention. What many are failing to understand is that this virus can lead to a difficult to treat pneumonia. The healthcare of the whole country becomes overwhelmed. People die from other illnesses unnecessarily. Without intervention millions would die. I expect we shall see this in 3rd world countries very soon. 

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swiss_democracy_for_all
2 hours ago, Gloommonger said:

And what's the death rate without intervention. What many are failing to understand is that this virus can lead to a difficult to treat pneumonia. The healthcare of the whole country becomes overwhelmed. People die from other illnesses unnecessarily. Without intervention millions would die. I expect we shall see this in 3rd world countries very soon. 

Apocalypse scenarios with millions of deaths in countries where the lockdowns have been less tight or not done at all are a bit thin on the ground so far. Time will tell. If none appear, the authorities everywhere that have fucked over their economies are going to look very bad indeed. 

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2 hours ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

Apocalypse scenarios with millions of deaths in countries where the lockdowns have been less tight or not done at all are a bit thin on the ground so far. Time will tell. If none appear, the authorities everywhere that have fucked over their economies are going to look very bad indeed. 

Even with our unique social distancing policies here, with travel restrictions (photos per my post on another thread), I think that even our small little country is doing a poor job in progressing the death numbers. None dead so far, 109 infected, 1 reinfected and ~70 recovered.

In fact, we are making no contributions at all to the worldwide death numbers, which are themselves poor if we are to tackle overpopulation.

Anyway, Cambo-style virus control:

 

17DB8936-5B9A-4E7F-8B83-082911BDFB35.jpeg

68847398-1B1C-4E04-8DE7-6BFE50715496.jpeg

0ADDB911-159F-43B8-B072-EABB093C5567.jpeg

Edited by Bkkandrew
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