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Democorruptcy

The Rebound

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It never seems to be discussed in the media that the hoped for peak we are expected to reach soon, could be just a peak but not the final or largest peak.

Pandemics typically run in waves and the 2nd wave in the following Winter is worst than the first.

Is the question "If this goes away in summer, will it come back in winter?" banned from the press conferences?

Do they think that telling people while they are still in lockdown now, that they might have to do it for longer next winter, is too much for them to take?

All these hospitals that we are currently building as they already expect an imminent peak, are surely more for next winter?

Any lull in summer is a time to stock up for winter?

 

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2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Any lull in summer is a time to stock up for winter?

Definitely. You'd be insane not to stock up. Then again I'm a paranoid doomer so you probably don't want to pay too much attention to me xD

As for press asking "will it come back" (a) they're generally behind the curve so might not think of the question and (b) it's unanswerable in any case.

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3 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Spot on but don't tell everybody or I'll never get any bread yeast.

I'm using half packs now as there has been none in for a month.

Has anyone tried making bread with brewers yeast?. I bought 500g along with some winemaking stuff but I doubt I'll need that much.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

Spot on but don't tell everybody or I'll never get any bread yeast.

I'm using half packs now as there has been none in for a month.

Get a sourdough starter. Before long you'll have more than you know what to do with, and not enough friends to give it away to (so long as you can get the flour).

IMG_20200408_201703.jpg

Edited by Turned Out Nice Again

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34 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It never seems to be discussed in the media that the hoped for peak we are expected to reach soon, could be just a peak but not the final or largest peak.

Pandemics typically run in waves and the 2nd wave in the following Winter is worst than the first.

Is the question "If this goes away in summer, will it come back in winter?" banned from the press conferences?

Do they think that telling people while they are still in lockdown now, that they might have to do it for longer next winter, is too much for them to take?

All these hospitals that we are currently building as they already expect an imminent peak, are surely more for next winter?

Any lull in summer is a time to stock up for winter?

 

I think the same.

We'll have a miracle recovery, and everyone will go demob happy.

It is at that point that we should be preparing for the actual pandemic to turn up.

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29 minutes ago, Kilham said:

Has anyone tried making bread with brewers yeast?. I bought 500g along with some winemaking stuff but I doubt I'll need that much.

Every time it's mentioned the advice is not to do it.

I don't know the chemical reason but if you look at what we're asking each yeast to do they are very different:

Bread yeast: very rapid growth and expansion with the goal being lots of CO2 to make the bread rise in three hours.

Brewer's yeast: runs for seven days, tolerating alcohol, with CO2 mostly waste product.

 

They can be used interchangeably but you will get a bread that doesn't rise much or a beer that isn't very strong and tastes, apparently, "bready".

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47 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It never seems to be discussed in the media that the hoped for peak we are expected to reach soon, could be just a peak but not the final or largest peak.

Pandemics typically run in waves and the 2nd wave in the following Winter is worst than the first.

Is the question "If this goes away in summer, will it come back in winter?" banned from the press conferences?

Do they think that telling people while they are still in lockdown now, that they might have to do it for longer next winter, is too much for them to take?

All these hospitals that we are currently building as they already expect an imminent peak, are surely more for next winter?

Any lull in summer is a time to stock up for winter?

 

There is another reason to have these other hospitals regardless of the size of the ongoing outbreak. Those facilities will largely only need the same facilities with the same appropriately trained staff. They will be the isolated areas where China Virus patients are looked after in an attempt to reboot a clean healthcare system elsewhere.

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34 minutes ago, Turned Out Nice Again said:

Get a sourdough starter. Before long you'll have more than you know what to do with, and not enouigh friends to give it away to (so long as you can get the flour).

Since flour has become quite precious, I now feed my starter much less than recommended: keep in the fridge, a teaspoon of flour a couple of times a week, feed it properly when I'm ready to bake. No wastage at all now and it's working fine (less sour but I quite like that).

It's also possible to freeze it.

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23 minutes ago, dgul said:

I think the same.

We'll have a miracle recovery, and everyone will go demob happy.

It is at that point that we should be preparing for the actual pandemic to turn up.

Bad as it may seem this outbreak occurred when the normal flu season was in decline. If we get a resurgence of this virus in the autumn and a bad flu outbreak then they will definitely need  everyone of those  Nightingale hospitals.

Interesting point made in another post  about the fact the UKs BAME population is aging. Immunity to all infections declines as people get older and therefore ethnic minority groups suffering a natural deficiency of Vitamin D are going to be at higher risk as they age from all types of viral and bacterial diseases.

Countries that have controlled the disease won’t be lifting their border restrictions anytime soon so all those holidaying globe trotters are going to have to revise their travel plans.

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23 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Every time it's mentioned the advice is not to do it.

I don't know the chemical reason but if you look at what we're asking each yeast to do they are very different:

Bread yeast: very rapid growth and expansion with the goal being lots of CO2 to make the bread rise in three hours.

Brewer's yeast: runs for seven days, tolerating alcohol, with CO2 mostly waste product.

 

They can be used interchangeably but you will get a bread that doesn't rise much or a beer that isn't very strong and tastes, apparently, "bready".

I made a batch of beer with bread yeast once. It worked but it did taste a bit bready.

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Posted (edited)

I don't think the question, if it goes away in summer, will it come back in winter, is banned. I just don't think anyone believes it will go away in summer.

The casualty figures will probably drop, but I don't think that will be anything to do with the time of year. Just down to the social distance measures . I've already been off work, and haven't been anywhere other than a supermarket, for three weeks.

I'm pretty much resigned to life not getting back to anything like normal in my lifetime.

Edited by Uptherebels

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5 minutes ago, Uptherebels said:

I'm pretty much resigned to life not getting back to anything like normal in my lifetime.

I really don't see why not.

After one, maybe two years most people have had it and then it becomes part of the background noise of diseases or conditions that can kill you like the various cancers, strokes, dementia, hepatitis, blood poisoning etc.

Everyone dies sometime.  The only particular feature of this one is that if you have a breathing problem then you are particularly susceptible.

Add in a big dose of herd immunity and for most people it becomes an irrelevance.

If a vaccine is developed, and there is no guarantee of that, then it goes away more quickly.

 

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1 hour ago, Turned Out Nice Again said:

Get a sourdough starter.

I've never had any sourdough but it sounds disgusting.  Same as Soda Bread just the name makes you want to have it globally banned.

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I'm of the opinion there will be no vaccine and C-19 won't be stamped out (it would need to be globally stamped out for a start). That's why I find the current response excessive and at risk of creating as many problems and possibly deaths as it solves/saves. And that's before factoring in questions of the true fatality rate.

The lockdown is largely postponing deaths in the hope of a breakthrough or C-19 just going away. It's likely C-19 will become endemic and possibly mutate, with this 'year' having the worst death toll. In that circumstance a second peak is inevitable after the lockdown lifts.

This is an unsustainable approach. At some point we will have to return to something resembling normality at which point people die again. I'd rather get out there and take the risk (admittedly very low for me) rather than continue living in the USSK.

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Vacant said:

I'm of the opinion there will be no vaccine and C-19 won't be stamped out (it would need to be globally stamped out for a start). That's why I find the current response excessive and at risk of creating as many problems and possibly deaths as it solves/saves. And that's before factoring in questions of the true fatality rate.

The lockdown is largely postponing deaths in the hope of a breakthrough or C-19 just going away. It's likely C-19 will become endemic and possibly mutate, with this 'year' having the worst death toll. In that circumstance a second peak is inevitable after the lockdown lifts.

This is an unsustainable approach. At some point we will have to return to something resembling normality at which point people die again. I'd rather get out there and take the risk (admittedly very low for me) rather than continue living in the USSK.

 

 

 

I essentially agree however if you regard this current lockdown as a way of stopping exponential growth whilst new hospitals are built and the NHS properly equipped to deal with it, and new staff recruited, then it does make short term sense.

The likelihood is that this will practically vanish in the summer anyway to give lots more preparation time.

Once all of that has been done then there is no justification for further lockdown: let it run for just the reasons you say.

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