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The economy is totally and utterly fucked


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No matter what kind of spin they try to put on it, it is buggered. I might be a bit biased having watched the big short again tonight, but we were already heading there. Sub prime car loans in th

At risk of bringing this thread back on topic, I wanted to add a few thoughts As part of their policy to keep everyone in doors and also convince everyone that this is all necessary they have sca

A child's education cannot survive a sneaky day off under normal circumstances, but six months is fine.

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I had plans to move. I hate where we are at the moment (mostly neighbours from hell) and attempts to redevelop (the hotel) have been unsuccessful. We will likely change to residential and then B&B for a bit of extra income rather than spend massive amounts to sell a little alcohol.

Had our eye on a lovely coastal hotel. They have just dropped their price by 40% and are now 50% of original price. Despite the curtailed outlook I would probably go for it if I could but lending likely impossible now and we are a few 100k short. 

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2 minutes ago, t_v 🏅 said:

We have written off the summer hols as well but no one is mourning (in fact I am fucking celebrating, they are the biggest stress of the year for me). We spend an arm and a leg and we return more tired than when we left.

Last year (summer 19) we had to delay our departure by 3 weeks due to some of my committments. That meant we spent the first 3 weeks of the school hols at home. The weather was goodish but most importantly we were at our own home, with all our mod cons (reliable, speedy internet mainly) and lots of free time. The best time I have had for years.

I suggested we did it again this year but was shot down (wife mainly) . Covid-19 has sorted that one. Bliss.

Simple quality family pursuits like camping could be coming back big time in the near term. Spring sales on at Blacks/Go Outdoors currently. Might even get lucky and be able go this summer😬

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36 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

No matter what kind of spin they try to put on it, it is buggered.

I might be a bit biased having watched the big short again tonight, but we were already heading there. Sub prime car loans in the US were rife. The UK not far behind. And BTL lending is off the scale.

When (if) lockdown ends, people seem to assume life and trade will go back to normal. It won't.

Firstly, there will be an expectation of a second wave. People will have learned their lesson and will start saving at all costs. Discretionary spending will be close to zero.

Redundancies will be huge. Maybe up to 50% of furloughed staff. They just won't be needed.

Too much of our trade is reliant upon a good summer. If they only get half a summer, with few tourists, December / January will see a huge rise in company bankruptcies.

A lot of micro businesses will just decide it isn't worth the grief and shut up shop.

I don't think many people are understanding just how bad things are going to be, once the 'health' issues are over.

It will be carnage.

 

Watch the US... the shale oil producers are losing their shirts, big time. They're massively leveraged, it will spill into a US banking crisis and totally kill the petchems industry, and that's before people stop buying cars.

When Bernanke said he would drop cash from helicopters, well go long on helicopters, because that's what's coming and they're going to need a lot.

20 minutes ago, Iamcynical said:

This. 

Definitely.  A lot of the people sitting at home on 80% to do nothing are quite possibly enjoying it right now.  They won't be in three months when they've lost their job.. 

Some people are sat at home doing nothing, I'm busier than I've ever been.

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3 minutes ago, Roger_Mellie said:

Watch the US... the shale oil producers are losing their shirts, big time. They're massively leveraged, it will spill into a US banking crisis and totally kill the petchems industry, and that's before people stop buying cars.

When Bernanke said he would drop cash from helicopters, well go long on helicopters, because that's what's coming and they're going to need a lot.

...

^This. Endgame baby.

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