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The economy is totally and utterly fucked


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10 hours ago, MrLibertyRedux said:

The summer before Covid in one of the main drags in Nottingham city centre

A friend has a house in Arnold so I've done a bit of a tour of the local hostelries, the Pitcher & Piano sticks in my mind.

In more relevant news, my ex local council (Oxford) had spent it's housing budget by January and apparently quite a bit of social housing is being built and refurbed afaik.

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No matter what kind of spin they try to put on it, it is buggered. I might be a bit biased having watched the big short again tonight, but we were already heading there. Sub prime car loans in th

At risk of bringing this thread back on topic, I wanted to add a few thoughts As part of their policy to keep everyone in doors and also convince everyone that this is all necessary they have sca

A child's education cannot survive a sneaky day off under normal circumstances, but six months is fine.

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45 minutes ago, maffo said:

A friend has a house in Arnold so I've done a bit of a tour of the local hostelries, the Pitcher & Piano sticks in my mind.

In more relevant news, my ex local council (Oxford) had spent it's housing budget by January and apparently quite a bit of social housing is being built and refurbed afaik.

My manor! The Pitcher & Piano is a few hundred yards from my old appartment.

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On my walk around the city today I noticed 3 shops that have now closed since the lockdown, and that's with the government furlough money; a Moss Bros, a Thorntons, and another shop that just sold random crap. Also as I type this I remember a huge Easons (book/stationary store) shut as well, and a massive Tesco in the city centre is closing once it's lease expires in the coming year. So that's 5 shops actually, two of which were huge shops in prime city centre locations.

If that's how bad things are with the furlough money, surely the decline will just accelerate when the furlough money is eventually turned off? Does it not point to an emptier high street than we've seen perhaps since the '08 financial fuckery once everything opens back up and things go back to 'normal'?

I fancied buying a coffee when I was out my walk, but I had a different coat on that usual so didn't have a mask with me. Every cafe I passed serving takeaway coffee had a huge sign outside warning me not to come in without a mask; so I just didn't bother buying one and just made one at home.

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24 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

On my walk around the city today I noticed 3 shops that have now closed since the lockdown, and that's with the government furlough money; a Moss Bros, a Thorntons, and another shop that just sold random crap. Also as I type this I remember a huge Easons (book/stationary store) shut as well, and a massive Tesco in the city centre is closing once it's lease expires in the coming year. So that's 5 shops actually, two of which were huge shops in prime city centre locations.

If that's how bad things are with the furlough money, surely the decline will just accelerate when the furlough money is eventually turned off? Does it not point to an emptier high street than we've seen perhaps since the '08 financial fuckery once everything opens back up and things go back to 'normal'?

I fancied buying a coffee when I was out my walk, but I had a different coat on that usual so didn't have a mask with me. Every cafe I passed serving takeaway coffee had a huge sign outside warning me not to come in without a mask; so I just didn't bother buying one and just made one at home.

My local Tesco Extra had a clthes area that had Burton and the like all fenced off due to lockdown. That is now stripped bare.

As you say, when the furlough stops...

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21 hours ago, The Masked Tulip said:
The equity put/call ratio is now at its lowest level since 2000. The amount of bullishness in this market is at a level of extreme. A massive amount of calls are being bought compared to the amount of puts.
 
 

tmp_1613857340435.jpg

 

Don at Theotrade explains the danger of this.

Looking at the chart, Don needs to have been explaining it for about 7 years.

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5 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

On my walk around the city today I noticed 3 shops that have now closed since the lockdown, and that's with the government furlough money; a Moss Bros, a Thorntons, and another shop that just sold random crap. Also as I type this I remember a huge Easons (book/stationary store) shut as well, and a massive Tesco in the city centre is closing once it's lease expires in the coming year. So that's 5 shops actually, two of which were huge shops in prime city centre locations.

If that's how bad things are with the furlough money, surely the decline will just accelerate when the furlough money is eventually turned off? Does it not point to an emptier high street than we've seen perhaps since the '08 financial fuckery once everything opens back up and things go back to 'normal'?

I fancied buying a coffee when I was out my walk, but I had a different coat on that usual so didn't have a mask with me. Every cafe I passed serving takeaway coffee had a huge sign outside warning me not to come in without a mask; so I just didn't bother buying one and just made one at home.

About time. If you young'uns hadn't frittered away so much on coffees you could have bought a property. Don't tell your dad about all those coffees.

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On 17/02/2021 at 20:04, BurntBread said:

Well, there's the whole deflation thread downstairs to look at, @JoeDavola, if you haven't already. There's some very good information from a range of knowledgable posters.

Thanks for the precis of where we are in that thread. I find it super interesting but had to give up trying to follow it, I just don't have the specialist background.

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3 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Thanks for the precis of where we are in that thread. I find it super interesting but had to give up trying to follow it, I just don't have the specialist background.

I keep popping back to it in the hope it will all suddenly make sense to me but it never does.  I don't really understand money, even though I know I should.

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3 minutes ago, stop_the_craziness said:

I keep popping back to it in the hope it will all suddenly make sense to me but it never does.  I don't really understand money, even though I know I should.

Same here :( 

The problem is that Durhamborn who started the thread is a master of plain speaking, but now people have got in the habit of clogging it up with very specialist stuff.  It gets wearing having to google 50% of the posts to find out what a head and shoulders meltup is, or some such. Really we need a separate forum for stock market and bitcoin and all the other difficult stuff.

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It’s looking to me like the plan is drive house prices up and use that to gain re-election. Whether the older generation will want to pay for covid support through higher taxes (capital gains, and probably in what they pass on through inheritance tax) and reduced spending (worse services) I am doubtful. 

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2 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

It’s looking to me like the plan is drive house prices up and use that to gain re-election. Whether the older generation will want to pay for covid support through higher taxes (capital gains, and probably in what they pass on through inheritance tax) and reduced spending (worse services) I am doubtful. 

I can see house prices continuing to rise steadily due to multiple factors, including:

  • Ever low / negative interest rates
  • People saved up money during lockdown = more deposit
  • People buying holiday homes to use or rent because staycation
  • Lockdown increasing divorces meaning more individuals needing homes

But I can't see it being a viable plan if re-election is what they're planning because the only people that benefit are the ones who are rapidly dying off.

Actually if I had to make a guess as to what all this bullshit is about I would say the plan is to generate large scale inflation to wipe out the majority of the debt burden. So personally I can see house prices rising at 5% per year but bread costing £10 a loaf and minimum wage being £50k in 10 years.

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Looking at the lack of re-opening and talk of gradual 5 week gaps between changes, total destruction except house prices it is then. When we were in the first lockdown and the housing market was closed (until May) I remember posting:

Quote

House prices are the UK economy and the governbankment have stopped people selling them, so the economy isn't fucked it's in limbo.

 

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2 hours ago, Fully Detached said:

I can see house prices continuing to rise steadily due to multiple factors, including:

  • Ever low / negative interest rates
  • People saved up money during lockdown = more deposit
  • People buying holiday homes to use or rent because staycation
  • Lockdown increasing divorces meaning more individuals needing homes

But I can't see it being a viable plan if re-election is what they're planning because the only people that benefit are the ones who are rapidly dying off.

Actually if I had to make a guess as to what all this bullshit is about I would say the plan is to generate large scale inflation to wipe out the majority of the debt burden. So personally I can see house prices rising at 5% per year but bread costing £10 a loaf and minimum wage being £50k in 10 years.

 I thought they might bring in a universal basic income at 20k or something across whole of England . So then the state can fund. I expect if they do suddenly see people buying up property in the North or something. Although that might be happening already. I can imagine the homes under the hammer episodes!

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On 06/10/2020 at 13:29, Hail the Tripod said:

The Zopa pier2pier lending platform dashboard gives a standard teaser of 17%, and I recall it used to be sub 10% not long ago. My own personalised offer rate has gone from circa 3% to 7.5% on an “unsecured” loan.

I just had a quick look and it’s now 15.4% (while base rates have gone from 0.75% down to 0.1%).

And that’s not a reflection of me as a borrower, as I’ve not had a single late payment on anything. There’s obviously a lot of default expectations being priced in across the board.

 

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Dear Customer,

Further to previous emails that have been sent, we are continuing to receive significant price increases on Polyester, Isophthalic and Vinyl Ester Resins, along with Gelcoats and Bonding pastes.

There are a lot of reasons for these continued increases, with global demand on many of the raw materials that are used to manufacturer these products being extremely high, but also transport issues and extreme weather conditions in different parts of the world also contributing. We have been warned of further increases to come, but we are being told that supply to ourselves will not be impeded.

With this in mind, uioplk LTD is forced to announce further price increase of 10% on all Polyester, Isophthalic, Vinyl Ester Resins, Gelcoats and Bonding pastes.

These increases will become effective on all deliveries on or after the 8th March 2021.

It's that time of the month again!.

It would be interesting to know what the raw materials costs are for other industries. If there are similar increases elsewhere there's a lot of inflation coming down the production line.

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Me and my competitors met up over a year ago. We had issues with government payments.

All enemies I guess. It was a.secret meeting. We all supply services to the government. Mostly councils. This meeting was just pre COVID. Since I think we have all let it known, fuck one, fuck us all. Dont cite monopolies please.

Sorry thats all the details I will give here.

Anyway, that we met..that we talked was something.

It was mostly about payments from suppliers.

Since x mas payments have really slowed. There are some rank jobs available that we try and not touch. You just wont get paid. Those punting the work all talk of the effort..covid..the battle. All paid monthly. Us..nowt.

Yep. Our choice not to join them. Not moaning of that. They would have us back in a cinch.

Me..I have known for years they are cunts on paying.

I have a year built a years in accounts savings to ride things out. A lot of effort but worth it. Mind dont mention bitcoin here..grr. Missed out.

Anyway. We are a fragmented bunch...politics..religion..race..and other stuff. Kinda ended up as me...the only white guy..acting as the middle man for all and spokesman. Yeah...what a nasty branch I grow from. Seems a natural role to be honest.

Lost my way. Another thread about delayed payments and dodgy contracts..lying to be honest by the provider of the contracts.

Yesterday...one of our members ends with his communique....we are not a communist country!

Me in the middle...replying....you would never know.

There have been several comments of late. All negative about this situation as a whole.

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7 hours ago, The Grey Man said:

Me and my competitors met up over a year ago. We had issues with government payments.

All enemies I guess. It was a.secret meeting. We all supply services to the government. Mostly councils. This meeting was just pre COVID. Since I think we have all let it known, fuck one, fuck us all. Dont cite monopolies please.

Sorry thats all the details I will give here.

Anyway, that we met..that we talked was something.

It was mostly about payments from suppliers.

Since x mas payments have really slowed. There are some rank jobs available that we try and not touch. You just wont get paid. Those punting the work all talk of the effort..covid..the battle. All paid monthly. Us..nowt.

Yep. Our choice not to join them. Not moaning of that. They would have us back in a cinch.

Me..I have known for years they are cunts on paying.

I have a year built a years in accounts savings to ride things out. A lot of effort but worth it. Mind dont mention bitcoin here..grr. Missed out.

Anyway. We are a fragmented bunch...politics..religion..race..and other stuff. Kinda ended up as me...the only white guy..acting as the middle man for all and spokesman. Yeah...what a nasty branch I grow from. Seems a natural role to be honest.

Lost my way. Another thread about delayed payments and dodgy contracts..lying to be honest by the provider of the contracts.

Yesterday...one of our members ends with his communique....we are not a communist country!

Me in the middle...replying....you would never know.

There have been several comments of late. All negative about this situation as a whole.

I know you said don't cite monopolies, but that's stonewall anti-competitive. 

Meeting with competitors in secret is very much frowned upon:ph34r:

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8 hours ago, spunko said:

Sick of all this nonsense about getting Britain back to work. I want to continue staying at home on 80% protecting the NHS!!!!1 

Indeed more free shit this morning I’m only getting them for one kid didn’t even realise until this morning I have 2 weeks worth.I could be an arse and enquire why I suspect it’s because it’s not been finalised at court that I am the legal guardian 

D4BF143B-BDB3-4AB3-8E63-9E25F72BF779.png

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39 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Indeed more free shit this morning I’m only getting them for one kid didn’t even realise until this morning I have 2 weeks worth.I could be an arse and enquire why I suspect it’s because it’s not been finalised at court that I am the legal guardian 

D4BF143B-BDB3-4AB3-8E63-9E25F72BF779.png

You could probably flog that on eBay for £29.95....

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On 22/02/2021 at 10:43, Fully Detached said:

I can see house prices continuing to rise steadily due to multiple factors, including:

  • Ever low / negative interest rates
  • People saved up money during lockdown = more deposit
  • People buying holiday homes to use or rent because staycation
  • Lockdown increasing divorces meaning more individuals needing homes

But I can't see it being a viable plan if re-election is what they're planning because the only people that benefit are the ones who are rapidly dying off.

Actually if I had to make a guess as to what all this bullshit is about I would say the plan is to generate large scale inflation to wipe out the majority of the debt burden. So personally I can see house prices rising at 5% per year but bread costing £10 a loaf and minimum wage being £50k in 10 years.

I think that there could be a lot of sense in that. I would love to know the actual cost of this bollox. It’s only one person’s experience but since this started I have been shocked by the amount of tax payers money being given to companies that have never done better.

 

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14 minutes ago, Shamone said:

I think that there could be a lot of sense in that. I would love to know the actual cost of this bollox. It’s only one person’s experience but since this started I have been shocked by the amount of tax payers money being given to companies that have never done better.

 

There is a piece on Lockdown Sceptics today about the experience of one person working in a testing centre. Cronyism and waste off the scale.

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47 minutes ago, eight said:

There is a piece on Lockdown Sceptics today about the experience of one person working in a testing centre. Cronyism and waste off the scale.

Testing place at the Dolphin Center in Darlington has a front desk with a massive 3 bar heater on full blast. The ones that are eye wateringly expensive to run. To keep one bloke warm.

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Big restructuring at ASDA. I note that the press reports / PR releases always talk about X new jobs created, but it's obvious that the jobs going are the better paid, 9-5 stable ones, and the new roles will be nmw +20p or some crap, with "flexible" hours that mean very little is guaranteed but they can work you like a dog at all hours when it suits them.

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