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Wight Flight

The economy is totally and utterly fucked

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7 hours ago, Sideysid said:

The major danger here is universal credit. Many will go on it with 2 kids and a rented house and wonder why the fuck they ever worked full time in the first place. 

Some of the newly redundant will find they have actually got a pay rise after losing their minimum wage job.

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It will be interesting to see what a move to WFH will mean for the housing market.

EAs and other rampers seem to think it will mean higher prices further out of big cities. But I'm not so sure.

A. Most WFHers will still have to go into the office 2-3 days a week. So you're not going to get Londoners moving to the Isle of Skye, for example.

B. Schools will still matter to those with children (assuming schools don't move to WFH, which seems unlikely as the teachers would basically be sacking themselves). So people won't just up sticks and move to cheaper housing.

C. Those working on the TWAT system (Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday) will still be paying to commute and may even have to pay for digs in town.

D. Who will want to buy the suburban houses that the WFHers vacate? I can only assume it would be slumlords wanting to create beds 'n' sheds housing for enrichers, but they won't want to pay the sort of prices that most people will want.

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18 hours ago, Sideysid said:

The major danger here is universal credit. Many will go on it with 2 kids and a rented house and wonder why the fuck they ever worked full time in the first place. 

The charade of relying on food banks when you’re on the equivalent of £30-40k a year will quickly become apparent to most. The cries of the stereotypical overweight, lifetime council benefit receiver with multi-dad kids may start to fall on deaf ears.

Problem is there’ll only be about 10-15 million PAYE tax payers left paying for a country of 70 million.

We at a very precarious point in history, where people will be getting too used to doing fuck all. Usually in history doing fuck all would result in poverty like the Great Depression. It’s looking increasingly like we could return to that and Universal credit will have to become some sort of UBI. But at least it will all be because of Brexit.

 

I've been saying this all along, even if there are hundreds of thousands of job losses as a result of covid it's no biggie... prior to covid in "normal" times there were 50,000 applications a WEEK for UC. 

So a few more cupcake makers and kids party face painters getting their non existent incomes "topped up" by UC won't really make any difference in the grand scheme of things. 

And I believe that for quite some time now TC/UC has been just a form of optional Basic Income, readily available for those who choose to take it up and know how to fully exploit the system.

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43 minutes ago, Royston said:

I've been saying this all along, even if there are hundreds of thousands of job losses as a result of covid it's no biggie... prior to covid in "normal" times there were 50,000 applications a WEEK for UC. 

So a few more cupcake makers and kids party face painters getting their non existent incomes "topped up" by UC won't really make any difference in the grand scheme of things. 

And I believe that for quite some time now TC/UC has been just a form of optional Basic Income, readily available for those who choose to take it up and know how to fully exploit the system.

I think the big issue the net tax payer base is getting smaller and smaller 

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Not entirely relevent here but don't have the YouTube thread on hand.

Life for sale is a YouTube series featuring this hulking clown of a dude Ben mallah.  He's done well for himself last year buying the most expensive property in Florida or something.   Unfortunately all the pieces have started to unravel.  I remember watching him before and he was saying he was simplifying by getting out of the domestic rental market and going after the big fish in large shopping malls and hotels.  Clearly when things go well they are not just good but very good but unfortunately now looking like very bad.  Talking about selling the Ferrari or RR to pay for 3 months of the mortgage.

Clearly no income from the hotels but the bank still needs paid.  And even the rentals he has aren't paying and he is not allowed to evict.  I'm not defending him .. Other than him being a funny guy to watch.  Not intellectual but smart.

I'm sure there will be a lot of previously well off people feeling the squeeze... The only ones no doubt that will survive will be the banks and to an extent the larger businesses.  Second vid most recent

 

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On 28/06/2020 at 14:18, Democorruptcy said:

Where are you getting there is still same number on furlough? People who couldn't work from home were told to go back to work. Non essential shops opened. The pimps and drug pushers are boosting GDP again.

Latest figures are furlough numbers have risen, now up to 9.3m from 9.1m in mid June... so I'm still completely baffled as to why the rush hour commuter traffic has gone back up to pretty much normal levels on my commute over the last 2-3 weeks.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1116638/uk-number-of-people-on-furlough/

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5 minutes ago, Royston said:

Latest figures are furlough numbers have risen, now up to 9.3m from 9.1m in mid June... so I'm still completely baffled as to why the rush hour commuter traffic has gone back up to pretty much normal levels on my commute over the last 2-3 weeks.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1116638/uk-number-of-people-on-furlough/

Agreed. I did an e-shot today and was amazed how many of my contacts are still on furlough.

Most seem to be back tomorrow. Prepare for massive traffic jams.

When (if?) The schools go back, I predict gridlock

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27 minutes ago, Royston said:

Latest figures are furlough numbers have risen, now up to 9.3m from 9.1m in mid June... so I'm still completely baffled as to why the rush hour commuter traffic has gone back up to pretty much normal levels on my commute over the last 2-3 weeks.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1116638/uk-number-of-people-on-furlough/

I'm at a loss to explain it too, my guess is that it is mostly people doing shopping for DIY projects, driving to the beach, driving to sit in the garden with relatives, driving to garden centres etc desperately trying to find something to occupy their time and spend their money on, plus a general increase in trades/delivery traffic due to people sp*nking their furlough money on tat and DIY.

For example I did an eight mile detour the other day just to get some cheap beers in B&M Homewares (even factoring in petrol I save a huge amount on buying in the normal supermarkets). Normally I would not bother but I thought to hell with it as it won't be too crowded as everyone's at home, not commuting. I think that's what everyone else is thinking when they go out!

Edited by Austin Allegro

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23 hours ago, Austin Allegro said:

A. Most WFHers will still have to go into the office 2-3 days a week. So you're not going to get Londoners moving to the Isle of Skye, for example.

Don't think so. Many Firms in London are looking at no-restriction working from home, where you can work from home as much as you like with no permissions or discussions required. I think once a week in the office at most - if that.

Edited by Errol

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9 minutes ago, Austin Allegro said:

I'm at a loss to explain it too, my guess is that it is mostly people doing shopping for DIY projects, driving to the beach, driving to sit in the garden with relatives, driving to garden centres etc desperately trying to find something to occupy their time and spend their money on, plus a general increase in trades/delivery traffic due to people sp*nking their furlough money on tat and DIY.

For example I did an eight mile detour the other day just to get some cheap beers in B&M Homewares (even factoring in petrol I save a huge amount on buying in the normal supermarkets). Normally I would not bother but I thought to hell with it as it won't be too crowded as everyone's at home, not commuting. I think that's what everyone else is thinking when they go out!

Well I had to buy a couple of brushes but I went through all my old paint to decorate my kitchen even though about mixing a couple for interest 

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22 hours ago, ad_ceng said:

I think the big issue the net tax payer base is getting smaller and smaller 

Don't think that's a problem, machines do most of the essential work - eg it doesn't take many farmers to feed a million people. Most jobs ( certainly including mine) don't contribute anything, we're just keeping busy nothing else. Very little would change if I and millions like me just stayed in and watched TV on a universal basic income

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1 minute ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Don't think that's a problem, machines do most of the essential work - eg it doesn't take many farmers to feed a million people. Most jobs ( certainly including mine) don't contribute anything, we're just keeping busy nothing else. Very little would change if I and millions like me just stayed in and watched TV on a universal basic income

That is not living mate it is existing, where does the money to pay you your UBI come from? Reality is if this goes as bad as it could nations states are going to collapse never mind banks and businesses

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2 minutes ago, ad_ceng said:

That is not living mate it is existing, where does the money to pay you your UBI come from? Reality is if this goes as bad as it could nations states are going to collapse never mind banks and businesses

Supermarkets are going to be interesting to watch. Even with the amount of food supposedly being purchased they always seem dead to me compared to pre lockdown. I don't know if/how they can survive.

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Just now, eight said:

Supermarkets are going to be interesting to watch. Even with the amount of food supposedly being purchased they always seem dead to me compared to pre lockdown. I don't know if/how they can survive.

I think we have real problems coming up, scary problems to be honest and it will happen suddenly as the gov are trying to keep it hidden. The job losses are horrendous and just getting started. 

Wars have been started for much less reason

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Funny, you mention supermarkets. If you look at the share prices of Tesco, Sainsbury's, and Morrisons, there has been no hint that we are going through a pandemic.

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7 minutes ago, ad_ceng said:

I think we have real problems coming up, scary problems to be honest and it will happen suddenly as the gov are trying to keep it hidden. The job losses are horrendous and just getting started. 

Wars have been started for much less reason

This is why I think we are going to have some sort of major global currency/debt reorganisation. I'm not sure how it will happen but I think the end of the line has pretty much been reached for most accounting fiddles; it's been nearly 50 years since Bretton Woods ended and the strain is beginning to show!

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6 minutes ago, Austin Allegro said:

This is why I think we are going to have some sort of major global currency/debt reorganisation. I'm not sure how it will happen but I think the end of the line has pretty much been reached for most accounting fiddles; it's been nearly 50 years since Bretton Woods ended and the strain is beginning to show!

Yup it is why I have been buying physical gold and silver 

Question is was it planned or incompetence, I tend to think the later 

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1 hour ago, Royston said:

Latest figures are furlough numbers have risen, now up to 9.3m from 9.1m in mid June... so I'm still completely baffled as to why the rush hour commuter traffic has gone back up to pretty much normal levels on my commute over the last 2-3 weeks.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1116638/uk-number-of-people-on-furlough/

Fiddling? Working for cash in hand and claiming furlough at the same time?

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