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t_v πŸ…

US Jobless Claims - Thurs 16th April

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Posted (edited)

Don't want to quote myself but...

On 08/04/2020 at 21:53, t_v πŸ… said:

...

Followed by another 4m+ next week setting the stage nicely for a -10m Non Farm Payroll print come the end of April (you heard it here first, although I predicted it also last Friday 03/04 and I am possibly way off/wrong etc).

@spunko: do I win anything extra if I keep getting these right (permanent ribbon next to my handle, if only for consistently humiliating all my "professional" investor (i.e. banker) acquaintances,Β  I have grown attached to the litte thing now B|)

5.245 claims today for a total of 22 Million Jobless Claims In 1 Month.

-10m Non Farm Payroll print come the end of April (you heard it here first).

Jobsaggedon.

Edited by t_v πŸ…

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1 minute ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

This is insanity, more will pay with their lives for this than the virus would have killed. On top of that, the virus will STILL kill most that it would have anyway within the next 18 months, wait til next winter. So it will have all been for nothing.

Historically when the US catches a cold, the ROTW gets Ebola, ok things have changed, but not enough to render that saying invalid.

You've got a machine capable of traveling in time and to parallel worlds have you?Β 

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3 minutes ago, This Time said:

You've got a machine capable of traveling in time and to parallel worlds have you?Β 

He is right though. Β As long as countries allow travel, this is going to keep killing. Β The vaccine is a idol-worship at best, giving false hope. Β It is NOT going to stop you getting it if your country does not eliminate the virus 100%.

Basically, countries that lock their borders and install a 14 day quarantine from here on in might be able to avoid everyone getting it. Β Places like Japan, Aus, NZ, etc.

Β 

USA and Europe are fucked.

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8 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

This is insanity, more will pay with their lives for this than the virus would have killed. On top of that, the virus will STILL kill most that it would have anyway within the next 18 months, wait til next winter. So it will have all been for nothing.

Historically when the US catches a cold, the ROTW gets Ebola, ok things have changed, but not enough to render that saying invalid.

Yep.

Isolate and support the infirm whilst hospitals prepare and then let it run was always the smart option.

And it's still there.

The UK should have lifted all restrictions this week.Β  The NHS is ready.Β  Stop all this flattening the curve nonsense; that's going to happen anyway.

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37 minutes ago, t_v πŸ… said:

Don't want to quote myself but...

5.245 claims today for a total of 22 Million Jobless Claims In 1 Month.

-10m Non Farm Payroll print come the end of April (you heard it here first).

Jobsaggedon.

Dow started heading up....

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Literally nothing more american than this.Β 

Β 

Americans want to work. Brits, 91% of us apparently, want to stay at home another couple of months. Nothing to do with the vast majority getting their wages paid, im sure. Put everyone in the same universal credit boat and that would change soon enough.Β 

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4 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Dow started heading up....

The Dow is going to be @ 40,000 in the middle of the Greatest Depression, there is a complete disconnect (there was partial after the GFC but they stopped short of buying corporate/junk debt) between the markets and the real economy since the Fed nationalised them (markets) last week.

It has become a farce, good luck BTW if you are owning the underlying, the only game in town now is (Hyper)inflation, there is no other way to get rid of historical and currently created mountains of debt.

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5 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

It's great. Unemployment soars and the stock market care not a jot.

The markets are backstopped by the Fed so no one can lose. They said unlimited QE and they mean it, they will buy everything and anything to keep asset prices at the current levels or lift them higher, debasing the currency can go and do one.

I thought I woke up in a parallel Universe when I read Rick Rieder's post (Head of BlackRock's global allocation team, $7T assets, yes that is Trillion) the other day and I quote: [We] "will follow the Fed and other DM central banks by purchasing what they’re purchasing, and assets that rhyme with those".

I mean, the audacity of the man. Millions will die, tens of millions will lose their jobs and the fucker's only preoccupation is to frontrun the Fed.

That's why the Dow was green today with another 5m jobless claims, the fuckers can't lose, red or black the Fed will fund their double bets in perpetuity until they win and then some.

The situation is out of control, I am going long pitchforks.

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29 minutes ago, t_v πŸ… said:

The markets are backstopped by the Fed so no one can lose. They said unlimited QE and they mean it, they will buy everything and anything to keep asset prices at the current levels or lift them higher, debasing the currency can go and do one.

I thought I woke up in a parallel Universe when I read Rick Rieder's post (Head of BlackRock's global allocation team, $7T assets, yes that is Trillion) the other day and I quote: [We] "will follow the Fed and other DM central banks by purchasing what they’re purchasing, and assets that rhyme with those".

I mean, the audacity of the man. Millions will die, tens of millions will lose their jobs and the fucker's only preoccupation is to frontrun the Fed.

That's why the Dow was green today with another 5m jobless claims, the fuckers can't lose, red or black the Fed will fund their double bets in perpetuity until they win and then some.

The situation is out of control, I am going long pitchforks.

I've only been actively following the markets and investingΒ for 15 years or so - I've thus never really known much difference (i.e. markets continually losing all connection to the real world). Having said that it has to be veryΒ dangerous for social order if we have another major crisis in a little over a decade where ordinary folk are impoverished further and the stock market goes champagne on ice. At the moment people like us obviously complain online about this sort of stuff fastidiously but IMO when the plebs catch on again it will be Occupy Wall Steet on steroids. The rich need to be very careful how they play this one. I'm a Conservative but would concede the wealth gap that has opened up since the last recession is massively unsustainable. Expand any further and heads will be on spikes.

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Prediction for 23/04: another whopper at 6m plus, there are reports from the other side of the pond that the system is continuously overloaded and many are not able to complete claims. Also, full week.

So far the apocalyptic scenario is playing out which if true will mean 40m claims in 8 weeks andΒ  -20m combined Nonfarm Payrolls print for April/May.

I am sure the Dow will cheer with ATH @ 40,000.

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