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Inflation or deflation


TheCountOfNowhere

Inflation or deflation?   

33 members have voted

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On 20/04/2020 at 12:43, Loki said:

I've seen Kilmer and Cadogan, good to watch when I'm in a petrolhead mood.

Cheap motoring ahead then, awesome

I'm hoping the cheap oil lasts long enough to make 'the last of the V8' more sensible running cost wise at a time people are 'tightening their belts' and will continue to when the lockdown eases, though with so much of the cost at the pump being taxes there is a limit to how low it can go.

Deflation into next year looks inevitable. Without a vaccine then social distancing will persist, so even if the lockdown was ended tomorrow lots of public facing businesses will see reduced or slower footfall if they're even allowed to open (pubs/restaurants/venues may remain closed while social distancing is deemed necessary). Which feeds back up the supply chain as lower demand.

Add to that many people will be wary of a second wave and re-lockdown so will be less likely to go out spending if they're worried about being re-furloughed or laid off altogether, if they still have a job in the weeks/months to come, or worried about getting stuck abroad on holiday or on a cruise ship if it all kicks off again.

The knock-on effect of the global lockdown will be long reaching and magnified the longer it goes on, as more people get used to a different way of life and re-evaluate their old work/life practices and find the old money making opportunities aren't there to the same degree.

 

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On 22/04/2020 at 08:56, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The salesmen aren't interested in selling you a car now, the price is based on getting £200, £300 a month out of someone to rent it.  If the interest rates go down they can advertise the asking prices at crazy levels.

The low IR economy has screwed people over right royally.

 

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/new/202001206364461?onesearchad=New&onesearchad=Nearly New&onesearchad=Used&maximum-mileage=500&advertising-location=at_cars&sort=price-asc&year-from=2019&make=VOLKSWAGEN&radius=1500&postcode=nn15an&model=POLO&page=1

 

RRP £16,630

Price£13,846

 

As you say, you could pick these up for 6 or 7 K before the banks collapsed.

 

Remember though there is no inflation as Central Banks told us so..

 

except in rent, council tax, house prices, vehicle prices, train fares.. just the things you need..

but Bluetooth speakers are down.. so there is no inflation.. 

Squirrel 

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2 hours ago, Popuplights said:

@DurhamBorn cheers, must get out of GBP Cash in the next 18 months. Those cash ISAS are going to look a bit silly after that.

Gold and Silver in inflation? worth it or not?

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Massive inflation in BS from the political classes and anyone involved in finance particularly IFAs xD

Re Polos, nice bit of German engineering, here's a cheap one https://www.copart.co.uk/lot/33123290 - just need to get yourself a key and a couple of number plates :P

Heads up on the URL posts, cut out everything after a question mark or else you end up giving out info like your postcode :ph34r:

 

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Castlevania
11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

-1.5%,2%,3% 7% 9% 11% 16% 22%

Next 8 years touch points.

 

Im assuming that’s not compounded? If not I get 90% price inflation over that period.

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19 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Im assuming that’s not compounded? If not I get 90% price inflation over that period.

I don't think it'll take 8 years to get 90%......reasoning -> CB money printing, look at how much the FED are printing now, somebody post a graph please 

I think the ECB want to do the same or are already doing it, just a bit of squabbling currently being experienced by a 'united europe' ;)

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Noallegiance
1 hour ago, confused said:

I don't think it'll take 8 years to get 90%......reasoning -> CB money printing, look at how much the FED are printing now, somebody post a graph please 

I think the ECB want to do the same or are already doing it, just a bit of squabbling currently being experienced by a 'united europe' ;)

Dunno what you mean. Looks fine to me...

FRED.thumb.PNG.8a3002409db1c17a04260c94b20b2f20.PNG

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1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Im assuming that’s not compounded? If not I get 90% price inflation over that period.

Yes 90% is what im looking at for the cycle,so it could come in different amounts and slightly longer or shorter cycle,but 90% is how im seeing it.

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1 hour ago, confused said:

I don't think it'll take 8 years to get 90%......reasoning -> CB money printing, look at how much the FED are printing now, somebody post a graph please 

I think the ECB want to do the same or are already doing it, just a bit of squabbling currently being experienced by a 'united europe' ;)

It doesnt matter if it doesnt,that is a roadmap that is showing likely inflation over the cycle.Im expecting roughly an 8 or 9 year cycle,but it could be 5 years.I also have a range of 55% to 155% by cycle end with 90% the most likely outcome with the Fed balance sheet at around $12 trillion.

The first $8 trillion from the Fed is simply dealing with the dis-inflation already in the system,that will cause 0% inflation.Im seeing roughly $5 trillion needed to right size for the Fed,thats just to stop total collapse.

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12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

It doesnt matter if it doesnt,that is a roadmap that is showing likely inflation over the cycle.Im expecting roughly an 8 or 9 year cycle,but it could be 5 years.I also have a range of 55% to 155% by cycle end with 90% the most likely outcome with the Fed balance sheet at around $12 trillion.

The first $8 trillion from the Fed is simply dealing with the dis-inflation already in the system,that will cause 0% inflation.Im seeing roughly $5 trillion needed to right size for the Fed,thats just to stop total collapse.

yeah but the robbers will probably misreport inflation like they have been for the last 50 years and say it's still at 2.35% PA :S

EDIT : just voted 'no idea', governments backed by corporates will report whatever inflation they want to keep the 1% enriched and the plebs working....OOH I'm such a cynical twat xD

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10 minutes ago, confused said:

yeah but the robbers will probably misreport inflation like they have been for the last 50 years and say it's still at 2.35% PA :S

EDIT : just voted 'no idea', governments backed by corporates will report whatever inflation they want to keep the 1% enriched and the plebs working....OOH I'm such a cynical twat xD

True,but i think it will be harder as the things going up are all staying in the basket.Long bond will tell us the real inflation.

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1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

things going up are all staying in the basket.

therein lies one of the cons, they just adjust the basket of 'cheap chinese tat' xD

I recall reading a while ago that one day the bond market would implode, don't understand enough about it tbh...

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