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Radio 4 now - Tim Harford on CV19


Frank Hovis
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Frank Hovis

This is the stats guy from More or Less.

This is the best chance for a unbiased summary.

Peak was 8 April.

 

Edit: meaning deaths peaked then.

Edited by Frank Hovis
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7 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

This is the stats guy from More or Less.

This is the best chance for a unbiased summary.

Peak was 8 April.

Does look like that

27469978-8240565-image-a-3_1587495099127

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Frank Hovis

And infection peak 20 March when schools and pubs closed prior to full lockdown.

Since then transmission rate has been less than one and total cases have been falling.

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Mental Floss

I don't get this concentration on "peak" beyond the capability of the health service to process patients and crematoria to burn the bodies. The interventions have had the effect they were expected to.

As soon as "lockdown" is lifted you'll get peaks 2,3,4,5, etc.

If any of those exceed the capability of the healthcare system then you're back to square one?

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6 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

And infection peak 20 March when schools and pubs closed prior to full lockdown.

Since then transmission rate has been less than one and total cases have been falling.

Other things happened at the time as well - social distancing - people got the message, also I think majority of flights finally tailed off by that point so were not importing cases.

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Virgil Caine

As Singapore shows crushing the first outbreak does not mean it will not return particularly if you use lots of migrant labour as they do and as certain sections of the UK do as well.

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Just now, Mental Floss said:

I don't get this concentration on "peak" beyond the capability of the health service to process patients and crematoria to burn the bodies. The interventions have had the effect they were expected to.

As soon as "lockdown" is lifted you'll get peaks 2,3,4,5, etc.

If any of those exceed the capability of the healthcare system then you're back to square one?

Yes.  That's all in the Imperial model.  

The problem is capability of the health service to cope. If you consider the level of lockdown to be variable, there'll be an exact level/type of lockdown that results in the health service to be exactly at capacity, and as the disease progresses you could shift the level of lockdown exactly to keep the health service at capacity.  That would be 'perfect' level of lockdown as the NHS could cope but also the disease would be over with as soon as possible.

But it is impossible to get an 'exact' level of lockdown -- there are too many variables.  So the Imperial model suggests a number of 'quite harsh' lockdown stages -- each time allowing the lockdown to reduce cases and then having a period without lockdown that's about the right duration to get infection rates up again.  By varying the lockdown:no-lockdown ratio you end up with NHS at near capacity for a longer period of time.

It is a PWM approach to getting the NHS to capacity for a period of time.

IMO they've mucked up and have started with a 'too harsh' lockdown, but then I'm not seeing the actual/real numbers about NHS capacity.  If this is the case then future lockdowns will be milder.  They'll tell us that this is because of improvements in <how well they've done>.

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Frank Hovis
13 minutes ago, Mental Floss said:

I don't get this concentration on "peak" beyond the capability of the health service to process patients and crematoria to burn the bodies. The interventions have had the effect they were expected to.

As soon as "lockdown" is lifted you'll get peaks 2,3,4,5, etc.

If any of those exceed the capability of the healthcare system then you're back to square one?

There are however other things that drop the R infection rate:

Immunity from having recovered: maybe an outlier but a 200 random sample in the US showed a third had had it (reported in RT). Or herd immunity.

Seasonality of viruses - tend to drop to zero May to September

 

We don't know precisely on these for CV19 because we haven't been there yet; but that is the way of similar viruses.

Seasonality would mean return to normal in May.

Herd immunity would mean that each peak is significantly lower than the last.

As per current conditions it needs to be played by ear but I think it incredibly unlikely that this particular virus would be both non-seasonal and allow no resistance to build up from prior infection.

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 22/04/2020 at 09:05, Frank Hovis said:

This is the stats guy from More or Less.

This is the best chance for a unbiased summary.

Peak was 8 April.

 

Edit: meaning deaths peaked then.

28468164-0-image-a-57_1589635637064.jpg

Pretty much.

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On 22/04/2020 at 09:24, onlyme said:

Other things happened at the time as well - social distancing - people got the message, also I think majority of flights finally tailed off by that point so were not importing cases.

It doesn't matter whether we import anyone. It's here already. I suppose it's reassuring to get it from somebody British, rather than foreign.

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Straingone
13 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

seems to follow a similar profile to number of charts used in the news

Sort of a normal distribution?

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On 22/04/2020 at 09:16, Frank Hovis said:

And infection peak 20 March when schools and pubs closed prior to full lockdown.

 

Any link mentioning this?

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Frank Hovis
3 minutes ago, maffo said:

Any link mentioning this?

This was my typing from the programme as I was listening to it live.

It's a respectable programme that checks its sources but the only link I can offer is that to the programme.

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