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spunko

The "Nothing is going to change so shut it please" thread

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Posted (edited)

That is why we need the most savage recession in history, to stop these people in their tracks and wreck their future life chances,

It is all hinging on this.

11m expected to made redundant over the summer, that is 1 in 3 of working age population. 

The oldies and boomers will try and carry on with the cruising etc but the 600 infected crew lurking down on the lower decks will be waiting to infect them. + travel insurance cost will either make it prohibitive or force them to go without covid cover.

We need this savage economic devastation, let's get it on. 

It's the perfect Black Swan event. 

We have them by the nuts until early 2022. 

Edited by WorkingPoor

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Just now, The Idiocrat said:

Surely a big recession was the only way that was ever going to happen? As per previous house price crashes? 

Even then there's still very cheap money available so those in work can keep bidding up.

The only thing that will crash them IMO is high interest rates.

You need two preconditions for high interest rates:

High inflation

A government that wishes to preserve the value of its currency against others.

 

We have neither and not does anyone in the EU or, for that matter, US, Canada, Aus.

Maybe the world will change but it's a grindingly slow process. I'd love a big crash but don't see where that's coming from at the moment.

And per spunko's OP: absolutely.

All the guff about changes is merely journalists with little to report making things up.

Assuming things are fully back to normal next year I have two big overseas holidays planned. Why would I change that?

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59 minutes ago, spunko said:

I need to get something off my chest...

People are NOT going to stop going on 2-3 holidays a year.

People are NOT going to stop eating far too much fast food.

People are NOT going to stop reading celebrity trash.

People are NOT going to opt out of the ratrace.

etc

People are NOT going to change at all, a month after the lockdown ends and everything will be back to pre-covid levels. Traffic, pollution, gluttony. Humans are creatures of habit and it's easier to buy a burger than make one.

 "Ooh I'm going to be more reflective, reduce my carbon footprint, drink green tea and save the world". FUCK OFF.

You're just setting yourself up for disappointment.

Is this a good time to plug my forthcoming book, in all good outlets in time for Christmas?

51 minutes ago, WorkingPoor said:

That is why we need the most savage recession in history, to stop these people in their tracks and wreck their future life chances,

It is all hinging on this.

11m expected to made redundant over the summer, that is 1 in 3 of working age population. 

The oldies and boomers will try and carry on with the cruising etc but the 600 infected crew lurking down on the lower decks will be waiting to infect them. + travel insurance cost will either make it prohibitive or force them to go without covid cover.

We need this savage economic devastation, let's get it on. 

It's the perfect Black Swan event. 

We have them by the nuts until early 2022. 

Indeed.  You'll go to the basement and you'll see this CV malarky was a distraction from some hotting up trends already well in place.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Harley said:

Is this a good time to plug my forthcoming book, in all good outlets in time for Christmas?

Indeed.  You'll go to the basement and you'll see this CV malarky was a distraction from some hotting up trends already well in place.

You mean a cover for the overdue recession that should have been around 2018 according to historic norms? bank bailout / more QE etc etc

i guess no one really knows how it'll pan out, economists have a pretty crap track record of predictions etc 

The mass job losses temd to lag the event by 4-6 months so i'm pencilling in 11m job losses over august & sept (that is 1/3 of uk working age population)

UKPolice: "Prepare for a volatile & agitated society post lockdown"

There will be large number of loosers by the time this is done n dusted

Edited by WorkingPoor

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13 minutes ago, MrPin said:

I think people may want to "work from home" more. After all, it IS proven possible. Obviously some things can't be done remotely.

MrPin you are placing it in quotes, as if to imply it's a misnomer. How very dare you, I have been "working from home" full time while in reality I have been working in between breaks to mow the lawn.

We are always told that the Danish have a better work/life balance as they only work 30 hours a week. Well I can tell you it's true, I am much happier now. Just as long as you ignore my incomings :CryBaby:

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Ah "working from home"? Done it myself. I think there are many distractions, like the lawn as you say. I'd call it philosophical time for thinking. You even need that in an office.

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At least at home I don't have to find a quiet room to have a non existent video meeting to pass the time of day. Although I'm presently on two projects in different buildings so when at work I have to be absent from one of them 😁

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28 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Even then there's still very cheap money available so those in work can keep bidding up.

The only thing that will crash them IMO is high interest rates.

You need two preconditions for high interest rates:

High inflation

A government that wishes to preserve the value of its currency against others.

 

We have neither and not does anyone in the EU or, for that matter, US, Canada, Aus.

Maybe the world will change but it's a grindingly slow process. I'd love a big crash but don't see where that's coming from at the moment.

And per spunko's OP: absolutely.

All the guff about changes is merely journalists with little to report making things up.

Assuming things are fully back to normal next year I have two big overseas holidays planned. Why would I change that?

I do agree in general, but I can't see how such massive printing won't introduce inflation at some point, and therefore increases in interest rates, probably when it's too late, as @durhamborn is saying. Might take a while to see it of course. 

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5 minutes ago, Option5 said:

At least at home I don't have to find a quiet room to have a non existent video meeting to pass the time of day. Although I'm presently on two projects in different buildings so when at work I have to be absent from one of them 😁

Schrödinger's meeting? You won't know which one you didn't attend until you don't appear on the minutes.

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I do agree with the OP largely, but I think some things will change a bit - working from home for example will become more common just as email gradually overtook post as the standard form of business communication in the noughties.

The middle class 'make do and mend' culture which reappeared after the '08 crash will have another boost.

One thing that makes me chuckle is those saying 'I will never buy anything from China again'. Good luck with that one for about three days until you feel the need to buy a new gizmo online.

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1 hour ago, spunko said:

I need to get something off my chest...

People are NOT going to stop going on 2-3 holidays a year.

People are NOT going to stop eating far too much fast food.

People are NOT going to stop reading celebrity trash.

People are NOT going to opt out of the ratrace.

etc

People are NOT going to change at all, a month after the lockdown ends and everything will be back to pre-covid levels. Traffic, pollution, gluttony. Humans are creatures of habit and it's easier to buy a burger than make one.

 "Ooh I'm going to be more reflective, reduce my carbon footprint, drink green tea and save the world". FUCK OFF.

You're just setting yourself up for disappointment.

Some of those things may happen for a while but only because people are broke and don’t have a choice.

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4 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

I do agree in general, but I can't see how such massive printing won't introduce inflation at some point, and therefore increases in interest rates, probably when it's too late, as @durhamborn is saying. Might take a while to see it of course. 

The necessary prerequisite for price inflation IMO is wage inflation meaning that people have a bigger discretionary spend.

Wage inflation wil not happen as long as high levels of immigration are permitted to meet labour shortages because it is only labour shortages that see wages going up in order to attaract and retain people.

And obviously high levels of immigration mean more competition for and higher prices for housing.

Until the immigration tap is turned off and employers who are short of staff have no choice but to increase wages to attract them we will continue to have high house price inflation, low wage inflation, and low CPI inflation as a consequence of the previous two in combination.

As long as employers are allowed to keep sucking in immigrant workers the government can print as much money as it wishes without stoking inflation.

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Just now, Austin Allegro said:

The flying in of Romanian farm workers at the height of this supposed pandemic showed that the mass immigration bandwagon will continue at any cost.

I assume these Romanians are legal, and temporary?

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