Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Office To Let


spygirl

Recommended Posts

The fall out from the massive working from home trial continues....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8315099/Twitter-BT-make-working-home-permanent-amid-concern-demise-traditional-offices.html

The companies that AREN'T bringing people back: Office rents set to drop 75% as Twitter leads firms who will allow remote working forever

  • Social media giant Twitter is adapting to new working from home model 
  • BT says it is 'striving to offer its colleagues the option to work from home'
  • It comes as Land Securities warns retail rents could plunge by three quarters 
  • A survey of workers suggests productivity has increased since lockdown
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
  • Replies 71
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The Bank of England’s recovery forecasts are too narrow

It has used ‘scenario’ to describe only its best predictions for the impact of Covid-19

https://www.ft.com/content/e3646332-a0d6-11ea-b65d-489c67b0d85d

Another vague, dont really know the fuck piece from FT chief economist.



For the past three weeks, the Bank of England has abused the word “scenario”. Rather than a “what-if” planning exercise, it has used “scenario” to describe its best-guess predictions for Covid-19’s impact on the UK economy.  This is not a semantic complaint.

By dressing up its V-shaped economic forecast as a scenario, the BoE has hindered the necessary work of real scenario planning for outcomes that might be significantly worse than hoped.

Three ugly but plausible alternative economic scenarios spring to mind — all without imagining a second wave of infection.

A “Trump is right” scenario takes its inspiration from the growing number of economists, such as former US Federal Reserve governor Randall Kroszner, who say, “we have to face the hard reality we’re not going to have a V-shaped recovery”. What the Chicago Booth professor means is that the world has changed. Prolonged social distancing and working from home will render many jobs in hospitality and servicing city centre offices redundant and policy should seek to help people with a transition to a new economy rather than keep them attached to their old jobs. 

In this scenario, European-style job-retention schemes are ultimately counter-productive, providing false hope to furloughed workers and companies on life support and preventing necessary adjustments. Better would have been the US emergency policy of generous unemployment support and rapid thinking about expanding schemes to write-off debts so the economy can recover faster. 

A second plausible forecast is a “mass-savings” scenario. Households and companies might decide the pandemic taught them they had run their affairs without sufficient buffers for a crisis. If so, their response could be to save more and invest less, creating a stable but high unemployment economy. If the private sector will not spend and the result is mass joblessness, the right policy response would be huge Keynesian fiscal stimulus for as long as needed. The public sector would be the spender of last resort and should not worry about government deficits or debt. It would naturally be much better for the government to have projects of long-term value ready to invest in.

Itll be a bit of all three. Most recession tend to shake out marginal activity and hasten the end of certain sectors.

Office rentals will be hammered as there was a vast over supply before c19. I seem to spend my life driving past barns and outbuildings with Office space To Let on them.

Rather than Pols picking special sectors, inthis case, farmers, theyd be better lowering taxes for the working. And, in the UK case, reducing benefits for the non working and stopping them completely for the non natives.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza
On 29/05/2020 at 11:45, spygirl said:

The Bank of England’s recovery forecasts are too narrow

It has used ‘scenario’ to describe only its best predictions for the impact of Covid-19

https://www.ft.com/content/e3646332-a0d6-11ea-b65d-489c67b0d85d

Another vague, dont really know the fuck piece from FT chief economist.



For the past three weeks, the Bank of England has abused the word “scenario”. Rather than a “what-if” planning exercise, it has used “scenario” to describe its best-guess predictions for Covid-19’s impact on the UK economy.  This is not a semantic complaint.

By dressing up its V-shaped economic forecast as a scenario, the BoE has hindered the necessary work of real scenario planning for outcomes that might be significantly worse than hoped.

Three ugly but plausible alternative economic scenarios spring to mind — all without imagining a second wave of infection.

A “Trump is right” scenario takes its inspiration from the growing number of economists, such as former US Federal Reserve governor Randall Kroszner, who say, “we have to face the hard reality we’re not going to have a V-shaped recovery”. What the Chicago Booth professor means is that the world has changed. Prolonged social distancing and working from home will render many jobs in hospitality and servicing city centre offices redundant and policy should seek to help people with a transition to a new economy rather than keep them attached to their old jobs. 

In this scenario, European-style job-retention schemes are ultimately counter-productive, providing false hope to furloughed workers and companies on life support and preventing necessary adjustments. Better would have been the US emergency policy of generous unemployment support and rapid thinking about expanding schemes to write-off debts so the economy can recover faster. 

A second plausible forecast is a “mass-savings” scenario. Households and companies might decide the pandemic taught them they had run their affairs without sufficient buffers for a crisis. If so, their response could be to save more and invest less, creating a stable but high unemployment economy. If the private sector will not spend and the result is mass joblessness, the right policy response would be huge Keynesian fiscal stimulus for as long as needed. The public sector would be the spender of last resort and should not worry about government deficits or debt. It would naturally be much better for the government to have projects of long-term value ready to invest in.

Itll be a bit of all three. Most recession tend to shake out marginal activity and hasten the end of certain sectors.

Office rentals will be hammered as there was a vast over supply before c19. I seem to spend my life driving past barns and outbuildings with Office space To Let on them.

Rather than Pols picking special sectors, inthis case, farmers, theyd be better lowering taxes for the working. And, in the UK case, reducing benefits for the non working and stopping them completely for the non natives.

 

Interesting take on the prospect for office blocks that rely on lifts to get 1000's of people to their floors.WHislt the owners are going to get burned,banks will be getting hosed.

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/28/commercial-real-estate-in-the-plague-year-the-office-tower-landscape-is-about-to-be-remade/

Commercial Real Estate in the Plague Year: The Office Tower Landscape is About to Be Remade

by John McNellis • May 28, 2020 • 94 Comments

The elevator in a pandemic, and the accidental discovery that many businesses are 90% efficient with employees working from home.

By John E. McNellis, Principal at McNellis Partners, for The Registry:

“Without the elevator…there could be no downtown skyscrapers or residential high-rises, and city life as we know it would be impossible…the elevator’s role in American history has been no less profound or transformative than that of the automobile…“If we didn’t have elevators…we would have a megalopolis, one continuous city, stretching from Philadelphia to Boston, because everything would be five or six stories tall.” Boston Globe, 2 March 2014

Just as the elevator gave birth to the modern city, its loss will transform the city in ways the pundits will be debating for years to come. For make no mistake about it, we are going to lose—if not the elevator itself—then its marvelous efficiency. No longer will it whisk thousands of crowded passengers up sleek steel towers in a matter of minutes. Simply put, the elevator is ground zero for the COVID-19 virus, and its single biggest victim.

Let’s agree that elevators are fabulous machines, as impactful on modern society as anything invented since. Let’s agree that, between the elevator companies and the high-rise building owners, we have very smart, highly capable and motivated people who will doubtless figure out a way to minimize the risk an elevator poses.

For the sake of argument, let’s even agree that riding an empty elevator poses absolutely no risk, that there’s no hangover effect from its last rider (no scientist has gone that far). And let’s dispense with all the palliative measures for elevator safety we can think of by positing the ultimate one and then ask the only question that matters.

Let’s say that after each passenger trip, an elevator somehow runs through a veritable car wash of sanitizers, that it’s guaranteed 100 percent germ-free when you step on it. Let’s agree that you can’t get the virus from any of its surfaces.

Let’s assume that your office is in the tallest building in San Francisco—the beautiful 61 story Salesforce Tower—where a ride to the top in one of its 34 elevators takes 40 seconds.

Let’s even say that Salesforce restricts elevator ridership to, say, no more than four passengers at a time. Given all those safety precautions, would you be willing to ride in an oversized closet several times a day, year in and out, with three other passengers, knowing nothing can prevent a stranger’s fatal sneeze?

Even if 80 percent of you say, ”Sure, no worries, I’m good to go,” Salesforce and every other high-rise owner has a problem. An elevator that ferries a single passenger at a time (or four for that matter) is not an option in a high-rise.

To bring this home, I asked a good friend who works on one of Salesforce’s upper floors when he would feel comfortable returning to work. While not an alarmist, he sounded like one. “There’s no f***** way I’m going back there and riding one of those dinky elevators. I don’t care what they do.”

For his sake, let’s take it a step further and assume that the vaccine we’re all praying for turns out to be truly miraculous and that, rather than resemble flu shots, which range from 30 to 60 percent effective in any given flu season, the vaccine eradicates COVID-19 the way the smallpox vaccine eliminated smallpox. In that case, does everyone say olly olly oxen free and zoom skyward without a care? The employees, visitors and day trippers might.

But what about the owners of the businesses leasing space in high-rises? The guys who decide where to locate their offices, whether to sign 10 year leases? The guys calling those shots are smart, they know that bat soup is staying on the menu in Wuhan, that fraught animal-human contact will only worsen as the global population expands and that containment is a sad joke.

Before they commit themselves to another decade in a high-rise, they might wonder when the next pandemic virus catches the red-eye to Los Angeles. If one major tenant in five ponders that eventuality too long, America’s central business districts are in for forty miles of bad road. (In 2019, Tropical Storm Imelda brought Houston its second 1,000-year flood in just two years. Do you think a few Texans moved their offices to higher ground?)

Yet offices aren’t going away. Companies, large and small, will always need offices. The question for office tenants will be: Where is that higher ground?

That decision will be complicated by another factor. While the other real estate disciplines have been wrecked by the virus itself, the office market has suffered a body blow from the cure: the accidental discovery that many businesses are 90 percent efficient with their employees working from home.

Add this discovery to the knowledge that the safe bet for the foreseeable future is the avoidance of small enclosed spaces—notably, elevators—and that the office market is now awash with millions of feet of sublease space. What do you have? A working recipe for serious vacancy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Just as the elevator gave birth to the modern city, its loss will transform the city in ways the pundits will be debating for years to come. For make no mistake about it, we are going to lose—if not the elevator itself—then its marvelous efficiency. No longer will it whisk thousands of crowded passengers up sleek steel towers in a matter of minutes. Simply put, the elevator is ground zero for the COVID-19 virus, and its single biggest victim.

Absolute hysteria in my opinion.  Not to say they aren't right about the gut punch to CRE though...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 months later...
Hail the Tripod

An acquaintance was telling me his conpany’s teaser rate lease with WeWork came up last month. Rather than jack up the asking price WeWork offered renewal at just one fifth of the teaser rate. They still didn’t renew. 

Friends who have been into the city say it’s like 28 days later.

 

2BF9F753-E037-455C-86D7-FC9A45B4A850.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

British Land is a good indicator for commercial property.

It's at about a third of the value (900 to 300) that it was five years' ago; which is roughly the point at which the councils started buying in.

It's already halved this year 600 to 300.

 

image.thumb.png.5f3bd5dcd31d46070ba343e229f13660.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Buy while it's cheap, then convert to slumbox accommodation. IIRC planning permission requirements to convert to residential has or is in the process of being scrapped or made simpler, so all those commercial landlords don't lose out so much they won't be able to bung boris a big bag in the way of party donations.

Those missing the office can have their cake and eat it by WFH while already in the office. xD

They'll be luxury combos when many are in cardboard city.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone waking to R4 Bizzyness sectio nat 6.15 will have very different reaction, depending on what they do.

Anyone doing a long commute would have gone - WooHoooO! Fuck travelling for another year,

Anyone invested in offices or coffee shops will have reached for a glass of whisky n revolver.

No plan for a return to the office for millions of staff

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53901310

Daft program had some idiot eatery bloke going ;We need help!'

The whole eating sector is already propped up on tax credits and 'cheap' migrants. Its a wealth destroyer.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Anyone waking to R4 Bizzyness sectio nat 6.15 will have very different reaction, depending on what they do.

Anyone doing a long commute would have gone - WooHoooO! Fuck travelling for another year,

Anyone invested in offices or coffee shops will have reached for a glass of whisky n revolver.

No plan for a return to the office for millions of staff

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53901310

Daft program had some idiot eatery bloke going ;We need help!'

The whole eating sector is already propped up on tax credits and 'cheap' migrants. Its a wealth destroyer.

Yep if your market was providing food and coffee to office workers you need to move your business to the suburbs where your customers now are.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In true BBC style the lead photo is:

http://birmingham.livingmag.co.uk/tara-tomes/

TT-image.jpg&w=708&h=500&zc=1

Woman (maybe) tick

Black-ish tick.

Fat -  tick tick.

Comedy business - tick She has a PR

So, how big is the titan of UK bizzyness?

Whos -

Business owner Tara Tomes: 'We're giving up our office forever'

https://suite.endole.co.uk/insight/company/08775545-east-village-limited

I bet her Dad will be pleased to get his shed back.

 

2 minutes ago, eek said:

Yep if your market was providing food and coffee to office workers you need to move your business to the suburbs where your customers now are.

And where other companies are, who are used to having a handful of customers.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chewing Grass
51 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The whole eating sector is already propped up on tax credits and 'cheap' migrants. Its a wealth destroyer.

Again highlights the inherent weakness of a service based economy that was so heavily pushed from the 1980s and bloated the economy with net-useless migration.

They knew full well that relatively few people were required for the UK to function but required a frothy economic topping, on their population latte to keep the illusion of full employment going.

In reality all with half-a-brain can now see that the emperor has no-clothes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, spygirl said:

And where other companies are, who are used to having a handful of customers.

 

I didn't say it was a plan that was going to work out - just saying where his customers have gone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Again highlights the inherent weakness of a service based economy that was so heavily pushed from the 1980s and bloated the economy with net-useless migration.

They knew full well that relatively few people were required for the UK to function but required a frothy economic topping, on their population latte to keep the illusion of full employment going.

In reality all with half-a-brain can now see that the emperor has no-clothes.

I think the service sector is too broad, as it includes professional services as well as coffee bars.

Saying, that the finsec is continuing to lurch down as reduction leverage and increases in egulation destroy all the scamm finsec/banks

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
3 hours ago, eek said:

Yep if your market was providing food and coffee to office workers you need to move your business to the suburbs where your customers now are.

when working from home how many people consume similar amounts from coffee shops and sandwich shops that they would if in the office For me it falls to zero, if i want a coffee/tea or a snack I go to the kitchen. Huge swathes of the sectors catering to office workers are  gone. Suit shops, dry cleaners etc too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

when working from home how many people consume similar amounts from coffee shops and sandwich shops that they would if in the office For me it falls to zero, if i want a coffee/tea or a snack I go to the kitchen. Huge swathes of the sectors catering to office workers are  gone. Suit shops, dry cleaners etc too.

Pointless, tax payer subbed, EE / EUer sector....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

when working from home how many people consume similar amounts from coffee shops and sandwich shops that they would if in the office For me it falls to zero, if i want a coffee/tea or a snack I go to the kitchen. Huge swathes of the sectors catering to office workers are  gone. Suit shops, dry cleaners etc too.

Just history moving forward. Same with the industrial revolution and the invention of the motor car.

You can't use keeping coffee shops and sandwich shops alive as a reason to force everyone to commute for 2 hours a day pointlessly to sit in pointless offices in a large city (paying £4000 a year for train tickets).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

M S E Refugee
On 25/08/2020 at 12:13, Frank Hovis said:

British Land is a good indicator for commercial property.

It's at about a third of the value (900 to 300) that it was five years' ago; which is roughly the point at which the councils started buying in.

It's already halved this year 600 to 300.

 

image.thumb.png.5f3bd5dcd31d46070ba343e229f13660.png

I have invested a bit of money in REITS that specialise in Warehousing as I think things are terminal for the High St.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
3 hours ago, Errol said:

Just history moving forward. Same with the industrial revolution and the invention of the motor car.

You can't use keeping coffee shops and sandwich shops alive as a reason to force everyone to commute for 2 hours a day pointlessly to sit in pointless offices in a large city (paying £4000 a year for train tickets).

Absolutely agree to that its just the move forward of time and structure of the economy. Glad the commuting thing is on its way out, it was such a pile of shiyte

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have invested a bit of money in REITS that specialise in Warehousing as I think things are terminal for the High St.

Probably not what you want to hear but retail actually accounts for a large amount of warehouse requirement and it’s ballooned over the years since just in time has caused stockrooms to disappear and direct sourcing from the Far East has meant warehousing has grown to swallow single product consignments by the 40ft container load.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

M S E Refugee
5 minutes ago, SNACR said:

Probably not what you want to hear but retail actually accounts for a large amount of warehouse requirement and it’s ballooned over the years since just in time has caused stockrooms to disappear and direct sourcing from the Far East has meant warehousing has grown to swallow single product consignments by the 40ft container load.

Many retailers will now sell their products from warehouses rather than the high st.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Many retailers will now sell their products from warehouses rather than the high st.

Yes, possibly in some cases they might retain a reasonable online presence but they’ll still already have more warehouse square footage than they’re ever likely to need again. A lot are in more than they need already as you always bake in a lot of store estate expansion which just hasn’t happened over the last ten years at the rate it did in the preceding decade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Noallegiance
5 hours ago, Errol said:

Just history moving forward. Same with the industrial revolution and the invention of the motor car.

You can't use keeping coffee shops and sandwich shops alive as a reason to force everyone to commute for 2 hours a day pointlessly to sit in pointless offices in a large city (paying £4000 a year for train tickets).

Come along Errol. We live in a world where governments render vast swathes of businesses as 'totally fucked', strain public life and relationships and squash children's education all for a near 100% survival rate disease that specialises in killing off the already half-dead.

We can bloody well keep shops open so that they can serve nobody regularly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...