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It's because it's Imperial College, in the heart of the land of wisdom and Grenfell, who's house was named after a Mr Grenfell, who was one of the last to BUY a captaincy in His Majesty's armed forces, and had a slumblock named after him

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1 minute ago, Reck B said:
  • Iffy modelling re Foot and Mouth - 6 million animals culled, mostly unnecessarily, £20 billion cost to economy
  • H1N1 - predicted 200,000,000 deaths. Actual = 440
  • SARS2 - predicted 500,000 UK deaths/2.2 million US deaths. likely to be wrong again.  I think we can count the cost of this all into the trillions.

Pillock. Why anyone listens to him and his Imperial College idiots is beyond me.

I reckon he'd chop off his childrens legs if they caught athletes foot 'in case it was gangrene.'

 

 

With SARS2 the claimed reason for the lower deaths will be because the lock down was affective. 
Swedish citizens seem to have done what they were asked to do and have a similar outcome to the European countries who’s populations ignored the initial requests. 
I think Ferguson’s modelling is highly suspect though and there is more information available now then there was in March. 

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Posted (edited)

Oh look, he has a twitter account, let's find some offensive tweets from a decade ago and try and get him sacked.

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson

I wouldn't normally condone something like this, but the amount of damage this wanker has done, he deserves it.

Edit: Absolutely nothing controversial. This is the best I could find, it will have no effect. There are shit loads of data.

 

Edited by Stunley Andwin

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1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Dodged a bullet? The economy caught a sawed-off double barrelled shotgun blast at close range. 

Next Government's and next generation's problem and out of sight of the current general public

Funeral pyres play on the TV today.

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3 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

Predict the worse and when it doesn't come to pass people will say

"Phew, we dodged a bullet"

Nobody will think you were wrong. You'll get more employment next time.

Predict the best and much worse happens and people will call you an idiot.

You'll never be asked for your opnion again.

 

Could be.

But this guy is consistently out by orders of magnitude so great, we'd be better off just knocking a few zero's off his predictions each time he makes one. Or better still, using someone else completely.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Reck B said:

Could be.

But this guy is consistently out by orders of magnitude so great, we'd be better off just knocking a few zero's off his predictions each time he makes one. Or better still, using someone else completely.

 

I don't tink that scale matters.

The people taking the advice have no means to assess, and in fact all they care about is following advice, any advice, so they are not responsible themselves.

You could even argue that they like big numbers because their mitigation strategy will succeed against them. They will undershoot, pats on their backs all around - due to the Government's actions the public dodged that bullet.

And if the numbers are wrong and deaths are higher the Government can blame the scientist's advice

Win Win

What's not to like?

Other than advice that gives low numbers that might be exceeded.

 

Edited by Hopeful

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14 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

Predict the worse and when it doesn't come to pass people will say

"Phew, we dodged a bullet"

Nobody will think you were wrong. You'll get more employment next time.

Predict the best and much worse happens and people will call you an idiot.

You'll never be asked for your opnion again.

 

Doctors are known to do this with prognoses. They will generally give a worst case scenario because if that is what happens, you are prepared for it, and if it does not happen, you are relieved and thankful to the doctor.

However, with someone at Ferguson's level I can't help thinking the job is got through, ahem, the 'right connections'. It helps for example if senior civil servants etc can show that they have a purpose in common with that of the government.

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4 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

Next Government's and next generation's problem and out of sight of the current general public

Funeral pyres play on the TV today.

I doubt it will take a generation before the penny drops, it will be pounds extra for them to pay. The "aspirational", "do the right thing" folk are going to be dwindling. I hope.

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6 minutes ago, Austin Allegro said:

Doctors are known to do this with prognoses. They will generally give a worst case scenario because if that is what happens, you are prepared for it, and if it does not happen, you are relieved and thankful to the doctor.

However, with someone at Ferguson's level I can't help thinking the job is got through, ahem, the 'right connections'. It helps for example if senior civil servants etc can show that they have a purpose in common with that of the government.

Of course

The employee need to be reliable - they need to be trusted to give the right advice

They employee also knows they need to be reliable if they want to stay an employee.

I think that is probably why I am independent xD

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I doubt it will take a generation before the penny drops, it will be pounds extra for them to pay. The "aspirational", "do the right thing" folk are going to be dwindling. I hope.

This time, quite probably a little more imminent

I was thinking of the previous times

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51 minutes ago, Reck B said:
  • Iffy modelling re Foot and Mouth - 6 million animals culled, mostly unnecessarily, £20 billion cost to economy
  • H1N1 - predicted 200,000,000 deaths. Actual = 440
  • SARS2 - predicted 500,000 UK deaths/2.2 million US deaths. likely to be wrong again.  I think we can count the cost of this all into the trillions.

Pillock. Why anyone listens to him and his Imperial College idiots is beyond me.

I reckon he'd chop off his childrens legs if they caught athletes foot 'in case it was gangrene.'

 

 

H1N1 - the swine flu pandemic?  440?  Deaths in the first year estimated to be between 151,700 and 575,400.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/pandemic-global-estimates.htm

SARS2 - have you read the report?  (Link below.)  With lockdown measures 10s of 1000s of deaths were predicted - about what we have (so far).

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Where do you think they went wrong with their modelling methodology?

There's some ignorance here about the way our government works.  The opinion of Ferguson et al would have been one among many.  From what I've seen in previous roles, I would guess that civil service scientists would have savaged their report, looking for errors, presenting their own modelling (which will not be made public).  The actions to take would then be decided more politically than scientifically anyway.  It's not like Boris got Neil on phone, "Lockdown you say?  OK then."

Foot and mouth freed up a lot of land for housing  - what's not to like? 9_9

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Big Boy said:

There's some ignorance here about the way our government works.  The opinion of Ferguson et al would have been one among many.  From what I've seen in previous roles, I would guess that civil service scientists would have savaged their report, looking for errors, presenting their own modelling (which will not be made public).  The actions to take would then be decided more politically than scientifically anyway.  It's not like Boris got Neil on phone, "Lockdown you say?  OK then."

Foot and mouth freed up a lot of land for housing  - what's not to like? 9_9

 

I don't think that happened with the Kreb's Badger study or F&M or other topics I've been close to. There may have been dissent on the sidelines but that dissent didn't inform the Government's chosen path. There is usually either a favoured scientist/dept/lab or  there is a favoured governmental approach and a government scientist that will suggest that approach.

Civil servants may be 'all over' some other types of advice, such as costing engineering projects etc, but I haven't seen that personally, in the biological sciences.

Edited by Hopeful

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1 hour ago, Reck B said:
  • Iffy modelling re Foot and Mouth - 6 million animals culled, mostly unnecessarily, £20 billion cost to economy
  • H1N1 - predicted 200,000,000 deaths. Actual = 440
  • SARS2 - predicted 500,000 UK deaths/2.2 million US deaths. likely to be wrong again.  I think we can count the cost of this all into the trillions.

Pillock. Why anyone listens to him and his Imperial College idiots is beyond me.

I reckon he'd chop off his childrens legs if they caught athletes foot 'in case it was gangrene.'

 

 

But But i`m sure man made climate change models must be right they are far easier to model

As and aside the foot and mouth debacle would have been far worse if it was not for the fact he was told to keep the fuck away when it became clear the models were bollocks

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21 minutes ago, Big Boy said:

H1N1 - the swine flu pandemic?  440?  Deaths in the first year estimated to be between 151,700 and 575,400.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/pandemic-global-estimates.htm

SARS2 - have you read the report?  (Link below.)  With lockdown measures 10s of 1000s of deaths were predicted - about what we have (so far).

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Where do you think they went wrong with their modelling methodology?

There's some ignorance here about the way our government works.  The opinion of Ferguson et al would have been one among many.  From what I've seen in previous roles, I would guess that civil service scientists would have savaged their report, looking for errors, presenting their own modelling (which will not be made public).  The actions to take would then be decided more politically than scientifically anyway.  It's not like Boris got Neil on phone, "Lockdown you say?  OK then."

Foot and mouth freed up a lot of land for housing  - what's not to like? 9_9

I meant H5N1, not H1N1! Good job I'm not the go to person for predicting epidemic outcomes...

 

Still, I doubt I'd be nearly half a million percent out.

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4 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Now ,what happened to Gordon Browns drugs tsar :D

Sounds like the first line of a joke, but I'd forgotten about that - politics overriding the science.

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4 minutes ago, Reck B said:

I meant H5N1, not H1N1! Good job I'm not the go to person for predicting epidemic outcomes...

 

Still, I doubt I'd be nearly half a million percent out.

He could still prove right for that one  - if it evolves to transmit from human to human while retaining its mortality rate then we'll be lucky to keep it under 200 million.

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2 minutes ago, This Time said:

He could still prove right for that one  - if it evolves to transmit from human to human while retaining its mortality rate then we'll be lucky to keep it under 200 million.

Can it do that though?  For influenza, isn't there a trade-off between infectivity and lethality?  Target receptors deep in the lung -> lethal, but not very infectious.  Target receptors higher in the airway -> not very lethal, but more infectious.  If it can and does then we're all fucked.

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Just now, Big Boy said:

Can it do that though?  For influenza, isn't there a trade-off between infectivity and lethality?  Target receptors deep in the lung -> lethal, but not very infectious.  Target receptors higher in the airway -> not very lethal, but more infectious.  If it can and does then we're all fucked.

Not all.

2.5% according to Neil.

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