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planit

Second wave outbreaks

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2 minutes ago, spunko said:

I tried in vain to make this point earlier on Whatsapp to my family. They quickly decided I was selfish and wanted all 75 year olds to die a horrible death.

My parents (74 & 77) totally accept that they will catch the virus at some time, and my mother recogises that she is very vulnerable due to a genetic degenerative kidney disease, yet they think the lockdown is pointless and counterproductive.

My brother has the same view, but his wife is living in a state of fear, yet she has absolutely no reason to be concerned.

My wifes family however, seem to of the opinion that the lock-down cannot go on for long enough and have completely taken the government line....

What I find a little odd, is that my side of the family are staunch Tories, and our view is ignore the government they are talking shit, yet the wifes side of the family are die-hard socialists who hate the tories, yet they are now practically cheer leaders for government policy.

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Germany's R is back up to 1.1

Quote

In Germany, new coronavirus infections have risen after the country eased some of its lockdown restrictions. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), a German federal government agency and research institute, has said that the infection rate is now 1.1, which means each infected person now infects at least one other person. Essentially, if 10 people are infected with the novel coronavirus, the infection rate predicts they would infect an additional 11 people.

Germany's infection rate had previously been hovering around 0.7 in mid-April. At that time, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that an infection rate of 1.1 could overwhelm the country's health care system within months

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-reports-first-coronavirus-case-month-fresh-outbreaks-test-model-pandemic-plans-south-1502993

 

Over the next few weeks Wales have said their deaths would be 800 deaths for R at 0.8 but 7,200 for 1.1, bigger population in Germany

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18 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Germany's R is back up to 1.1

Over the next few weeks Wales have said their deaths would be 800 deaths for R at 0.8 but 7,200 for 1.1, bigger population in Germany

So where are all the new German second wave deaths, or at least overwhelmed hospitals, if their rate has gone up from 0.7 to 1.1?

Given the exponential increase that they and the Welsh are/were predicting why hasn't it happened?

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6 minutes ago, Royston said:

So where are all the new German second wave deaths, or at least overwhelmed hospitals, if their rate has gone up from 0.7 to 1.1?

Given the exponential increase that they and the Welsh are/were predicting why hasn't it happened?

Patience! It's bad etiquette to appear to want too many deaths too quickly. In the link I posted Merkel said "within months". 1.1 means a faster transmission but not overnight.

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I'm reassured by the videos on Medicram and others that doctors are better understanding how the disease affects the body and finding ways to treat it. I'm less confident that the statistics emerging are reflecting how the treatments are improving.

There seems some macabre competition between countries to either show a high or low number of deaths depending on what their government thinks will be the most politically expedient. 

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15 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

I continue to believe this is a bioweapon. There will be no vaccine. No cure. It will keep reinfecting us and wearing us down.

How is the second wave doing in China? Do they have one?

That's the spirit!

1. Depopulation

2. Totalitarianism

3. Deflation of Financial Bubble

4. Jews n' shit

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6 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Patience! It's bad etiquette to appear to want too many deaths too quickly. In the link I posted Merkel said "within months". 1.1 means a faster transmission but not overnight.

 

1 minute ago, The Masked Tulip said:

Yep, it is possible that sunny weather and so many out and about in Wales will.not manifest itself in deaths for another 6 weeks.

Frightening.

Fair enough, I'm suitably admonished. 

Patience isn't one my virtues! 

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12 minutes ago, Royston said:

So where are all the new German second wave deaths, or at least overwhelmed hospitals, if their rate has gone up from 0.7 to 1.1?

Given the exponential increase that they and the Welsh are/were predicting why hasn't it happened?

Dr John's video of two or three days ago had a graph showing Canada's doubling time -  The doubling time collapsed  to 3 days IIRC from around 14 days, R0 and the way the virus spreads is not uniform or linear. 

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2 hours ago, The Masked Tulip said:

I continue to believe this is a bioweapon. There will be no vaccine. No cure. It will keep reinfecting us and wearing us down.

How is the second wave doing in China? Do they have one?

I saw and article that said they had new outbreaks but I am expecting that not to be in Wuhan. China is huge and it only seemed like one area that maxed out.

I also expect them to be hiding cases so I would think it must be pretty bad if they are admitting outbreak in certain areas. This disease can be hidden for most of the exponential expansion in normal deaths, it is only when it gets bad that the deaths are obvious. Remember the videos out of China in January, they were terrible, much worse than Italy with huge queues of people trying to get into hospitals and be seen and the inside looking appalling.

 

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1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

There seems some macabre competition between countries to either show a high or low number of deaths depending on what their government thinks will be the most politically expedient. 

So true, because of this you can't compare numbers between countries. Also I can't help but wonder if Boris has shot himself in the foot by recording too many deaths as Covid, they  seem to have gone to really long lengths to make sure that anything that might have been Covid is recorded as Covid and now it looks at first glance like his response to the virus has been bad.

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1 hour ago, onlyme said:

Dr John's video of two or three days ago had a graph showing Canada's doubling time -  The doubling time collapsed  to 3 days IIRC from around 14 days, R0 and the way the virus spreads is not uniform or linear. 

This is an example of how quality of testing affects the stats and why the stats can't be taken at face value. They are completely inaccurate in other words. 

 

What I don't understand is that no one seems to have tried to come up with a better model now that the figures are obviously wrong. Someone should be able to extrapolate out a line after plotting quality of testing against cases and R0 to try to work out a realistic estimate of number of cases and R0 that fits in with the real studies that have been done in Germany and New York etc.

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, One percent said:

I think the next wave will not be the second wave. Third or fourth. This has been around a lot longer than the establishment narrative would suggest. Remember those threads and posts before and after Christmas about weird flu like symptoms?  

The spread is a simple exponential expansion, this was the first wave and it takes a behaviour change and move into herd immunity resistance to end the wave as we have done

 

You are correct though, this was in the UK much earlier than they thought (probably in December) and because of the low number of deaths in the first part of the curve it went completely unnoticed.

To illustrate my point, I have used the date the first French case has been identified, 27th December, (R0=3 Infection interval=5 days):

Date Cases UK Official cases
27/12/19 10 -
01/01/20 30 -
06/01/20 90 -
11/01/20 270 -
16/01/20 810 -
21/01/20 2430 -
26/01/20 7290 -
31/01/20 21870 -
05/02/20 65610 -
10/02/20 196830 -
15/02/20 590490 9
20/02/20 1771470 9
25/02/20 5314410 13
01/03/20 15943230 36

(In reality the R0 would have started reducing towards the bottom of this series due to herd immunity taking effect)

 

As you can see, we would have had over 500,000 cases before we even noticed it was in the country. You might say that this wasn't the case but I am sure 9 cases on the 15th Feb is completely implausible.

Edited by planit

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3 hours ago, spunko said:

I tried in vain to make this point earlier on Whatsapp to my family. They quickly decided I was selfish and wanted all 75 year olds to die a horrible death. It's at times like this I really miss my dad's level head.

Thank the lord for DOSBODS, where trite strawmans aren't tolerated so readily :Old:

 

 

bastard.

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4 minutes ago, planit said:

The spread is a simple exponential expansion, this was the first wave and it takes a behaviour change and move into herd immunity resistance to end the wave as we have done

 

You are correct though, this was in the UK much earlier than they thought (probably in December) and because of the low number of deaths in the first part of the curve it went completely unnoticed.

To illustrate my point, I have used the date the first French case has been identified, 27th December, (R0=3 Infection interval=5 days):

Date Cases UK Official cases
27/12/19 10 -
01/01/20 30 -
06/01/20 90 -
11/01/20 270 -
16/01/20 810 -
21/01/20 2430 -
26/01/20 7290 -
31/01/20 21870 -
05/02/20 65610 -
10/02/20 196830 -
15/02/20 590490 9
20/02/20 1771470 9
25/02/20 5314410 13
01/03/20 15943230 36

(In reality the R0 would have started reducing towards the bottom of this series due to herd immunity taking effect)

 

As you can see, we would have had over 500,000 cases before we even noticed it was in the country. You might say that this wasn't the case but I am sure 9 cases on the 15th Feb is completely implausible.

I’m convinced i had it. Not quite the symptoms the establishment would have us believe but i had some weird thing that went on for five weeks. A mate i was out with also came down with similar symptoms. 

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, One percent said:

I’m convinced i had it. Not quite the symptoms the establishment would have us believe but i had some weird thing that went on for five weeks. A mate i was out with also came down with similar symptoms. 

In Dec? Jan?

 

This seems pretty likely, multiple cases with very Covid-like symptoms

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449

"returned from a business trip to Wuhan on 17 or 18 December and developed a hacking cough"

So in the UK mid December

Edited by planit

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4 minutes ago, planit said:

In Dec? Jan?

 

This seems pretty likely, multiple cases with very Covid-like symptoms

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449

"returned from a business trip to Wuhan on 17 or 18 December and developed a hacking cough"

So in the UK mid December

No after Christmas. Before the lockdown. February i think or it may have been late January. 
 

if you trawl back through the site, there were lots of posts about people having weird illnesses. 

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3 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I'm reassured by the videos on Medicram and others that doctors are better understanding how the disease affects the body and finding ways to treat it. I'm less confident that the statistics emerging are reflecting how the treatments are improving.

There seems some macabre competition between countries to either show a high or low number of deaths depending on what their government thinks will be the most politically expedient. 

Im not confident that the UK will bother with any meaningful research, therapeutics, or even general catch all Vit D3 prophylaxis.

The UK Government and its health sector and its advisors are in short a shower of fucking shit.

We have a research industry that consists of varying degrees of Gates fiddling and meddling. Nothing else seems to gain any traction here at all.

If that Medcram guy came over to work in a UK hospital, he would be back in California in time for dinner.

I hope the Israeli research brings some actual hope to the table.

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