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Caravan Monster

The virus is mutating - health to constitutional and economic

Will there be another virus peak in the UK?  

119 members have voted

  1. 1. Will there be another virus peak in the UK?

    • Yes - within 4 weeks
      6
    • Yes - within 8 weeks
      10
    • Yes - within 12 weeks
      8
    • Yes - winter 2020
      43
    • Yes - 2021+
      4
    • No
      30
    • Other / wtf / no idea
      18


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Posted (edited)

People have mostly gone with it the consensus but is the tide starting to turn? More 'authoritative' bodies, commentators and msm outlets are arriving at the consensus that the Imperial College model was deeply flawed, there will be many job losses and many consequent economic problems and the government response was damaging, excessive and nonsensical (eg UK pubs closed - borders open, contact tracing = pointless expensive mess) and is becoming increasingly irresponsible (eg furlough to october):

global perspective / UNICEF    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/unicef-warns-lockdown-could-kill-covid-19-model-predicts-12/

leftist perspective (surprising agreement)   https://lockdownsceptics.org/the-left-wing-case-against-lockdowns/

As more people come around to these outlooks, it will generate strong opposition to UK government approach which is steaming  ahead with extending quarantine using ideas such as 'R' which on closer examination appears to be based on numberwang and a lot of 'possible' counting methods designed to say what the statistician's employer wants it to say, bit like the Imperial model, speaking of which the government is still quoting at the beginning of Our plan to rebuild: The UK Government’s COVID-19 recovery strategy:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/our-plan-to-rebuild-the-uk-governments-covid-19-recovery-strategy/our-plan-to-rebuild-the-uk-governments-covid-19-recovery-strategy

Will there be a crunch point in the autumn if or when the second wave comes and more people losing jobs as furlough ends and economic problems increasing? It also seems increasingly likely that people within government have plans to comprehensively meddle with society, infrastructure and the constitution under cover of 'the virus', with consequences both planned and unintended. Add to this the likelihood of a push for vaccination and contact tracing with resultant resistance combined  with a the summer of police being twats about enforcement and general increasing absurdity plus scepticism in response to silicon valley and UK government 'nudge unit' / behavioural insights team censorship and propaganda turning people to radical 'it's a scam' thinking. There is also the question of what actually happened wrt death spike in April that could turn public opinion on the authorities in a big way:

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931

Add in an increasingly widespread realisation that brexit isn't what it says on the tin (will the EU still be there by the end of the year?) and the end of the transition period on Dec 31st. Will this be the turning point where Brits start pushing back, or will Boris be successful and lead us hand in hand to the sunlit uplands of a new utopia?

 

Other food for thought if you would like to hear extreme far right super nazis argue, Gavin Boby ('mosque buster' lawyer) v Mark Collett & co on racial unrest during recession and violence in enriched areas as a consequence. He basically argues that tinderbox areas will only be managed by violence, whereas Collett believes that it can be done by incentivisation. 37 minutes on:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/znTCgbxHgRin/

 

Edited by spunko
adding poll

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Posted (edited)
Quote

[ ]...robust environmental protections (including shifting to renewable energy sources immediately and protecting half of the globe for nature)...

What does this even mean? Divvy up 50% of the planet and hand it to "nature"? Here you go tigers and bears, here's half the planet... Give the other 50% to humans to do what they want? 

I love watching leftists contort themselves into moral blackholes. Very few of them arrive at the idea the planet is overpopulated though, weirdly.

 

Quote

, and this will certainly negatively affect working class and marginalised people more than anyone else

I asked this a few weeks ago but nobody replied on here: why, exactly? What indications have been given that "working class" i.e. working people are being shafted more than others? Most of them (us?) are on furlough, and being awarded 80% pay by the government for months on end. It's the middle classes and upper classes who aren't as bound to be on PAYE, are asset owners, and are often business owners etc, who are suffering more, if anything. I know, tiny violin etc, but that doesn't make it less true...

Is it another patronising, sneering privileged leftist assuming that all "working class" people are actually the benefit class i.e. feckless and lazy?

Anyone want to quantify this on here? It seems a bit trite and it pisses me off that nobody ever questions it.

Edited by spunko

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Posted (edited)

The economy is absolutely fucked already.

But it can probably limp on like the flaccid warty cock of a mentally horny OAP for a few more years if covid is all done and dusted by Christmas. 

If we get a second wave in autumn ? It's game over imo. People starving. Full on panic imo. 

Edit to add - This assumes governments follow similar actions to what they are doing now. 

Edited by ccc

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49 minutes ago, spunko said:

Anyone want to quantify this on here? It seems a bit trite and it pisses me off that nobody ever questions it.

I'm not getting anything off the government. It's a nuisance to me as work I thought I had lined up, er, sort of disappeared.

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44 minutes ago, spunko said:

Is it another patronising, sneering privileged leftist assuming that all "working class" people are actually the benefit class i.e. feckless and lazy?

Anyone want to quantify this on here? It seems a bit trite and it pisses me off that nobody ever questions it.

Have a self employed builder friend, working class background who is fuming about all of this, but to be fair he can't claim what he probably could due to, ahem, probably not entirely accurate tax returns.

However he would rather be working and with weather like we are having he would usually be flat out and would prefer to be so.

42 minutes ago, ccc said:

The economy is absolutely fucked already.

But it can probably limp on like the flaccid warty cock of a mentally horny OAP for a few more years if covid is all done and dusted by Christmas. 

If we get a second wave in autumn ? It's game over imo. People starving. Full on panic imo. 

Edit to add - This assumes governments follow similar actions to what they are doing now. 

Agree. The number of people who I have spoken to who haven't grasped the economic enormity of where we are at already has been surprising. Public sector types are totally oblivious and enjoying the gardening.

The only people I know who seem to have even the slightest grasp of it are the builder I mentioned above and another guy I know who runs his own accountancy practice.

I'm sure we will see the mass waves of redundancies start over the summer when they start phasing the furlough payments regardless.

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49 minutes ago, ccc said:

The economy is absolutely fucked already.

But it can probably limp on like the flaccid warty cock of a mentally horny OAP for a few more years if covid is all done and dusted by Christmas. 

If we get a second wave in autumn ? It's game over imo. People starving. Full on panic imo. 

Edit to add - This assumes governments follow similar actions to what they are doing now. 

Start preparing now for wave 2 just in case it happen

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1 minute ago, ccc said:

Not sure what we can really do O.o

Long life food, savings out of cash or into currencies, get work done that needs to be done e.g. dental, Stock up on cleaning and sanitary products, booze etc gold silver, warm clothing and good shoes. Batteries and all the other thousandsof things which will become hard to get hold of 

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4 minutes ago, ad_ceng said:

Long life food, savings out of cash or into currencies, get work done that needs to be done e.g. dental, Stock up on cleaning and sanitary products, booze etc gold silver, warm clothing and good shoes. Batteries and all the other thousandsof things which will become hard to get hold of 

Yes, everything like that. Anything that may be hard to come by.

Funnily enough, in the absence of My Beautiful Pubs, I'm starting the Midlands Liberty Brewery imminently. As @Austin Allegrosaid, if nothing else I'll be depriving HMRC of some revenue.

So far the solitary impact of the panic buying deprived me of the capacity to make cheese sauce. 

I wouldn't like to risk not being better prepared for a second wave. It's an interesting exercise if nothing else and shouldn't cost the earth.

It's not the virus I'm worried about now.

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1 minute ago, MrLibertyRedux said:

Yes, everything like that. Anything that may be hard to come by.

Funnily enough, in the absence of My Beautiful Pubs, I'm starting the Midlands Liberty Brewery imminently. As @Austin Allegrosaid, if nothing else I'll be depriving HMRC of some revenue.

So far the solitary impact of the panic buying deprived me of the capacity to make cheese sauce. 

I wouldn't like to risk not being better prepared for a second wave. It's an interesting exercise if nothing else and shouldn't cost the earth.

It's not the virus I'm worried about now.

Government and scared people are the main worries now.

Government is an issue as it needs totally gutting, basically anyone who has ever worked for it and in the 3rd sector needs to be banned from being elected, employed or any other way involved. That goes from the highest PM to the lowest PCSO and class room assistant. 

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1 hour ago, spunko said:

What does this even mean? Divvy up 50% of the planet and hand it to "nature"? Here you go tigers and bears, here's half the planet... Give the other 50% to humans to do what they want? 

 

That is the essence of UN Agenda 21.

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, ccc said:

Not sure what we can really do O.o

I guess make a list of all the things you had difficulties with during this Lockdown, and make preparations for them happening again but worse/for longer.

Eg some things I've been doing are brushing up on foraging skills so I can get green veg for free if there's none in the shops, and locating the nearest source of fresh water etc. I've also ordered emergency dental care kit and am building up stocks of homebrew. Stocking up on bicycle supplies etc. Buying physical silver.

Edited by Austin Allegro

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31 minutes ago, MrLibertyRedux said:

Yes, everything like that. Anything that may be hard to come by.

Funnily enough, in the absence of My Beautiful Pubs, I'm starting the Midlands Liberty Brewery imminently. As @Austin Allegrosaid, if nothing else I'll be depriving HMRC of some revenue.

So far the solitary impact of the panic buying deprived me of the capacity to make cheese sauce. 

I wouldn't like to risk not being better prepared for a second wave. It's an interesting exercise if nothing else and shouldn't cost the earth.

It's not the virus I'm worried about now.

My homebrew production is doubling this weekend. I managed to get all the extra stuff I needed at my local village shop (ie, a 5l plastic water barrel instead of a glass demijohn) and will be trying mint wine as there is loads of mint in my garden and it makes good wine, apparently.

I'm also experimenting with home made soda water using lemons and bicarbonate of soda. That's another 70p a litre or so saved!

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6 minutes ago, MrPin said:

Beer?

Yes if they wanted to be total twats they could do something about petrol stations ie shut them .ive got a letter I was given the other week just in case the police pulled me up they could do similar with petrol

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1 hour ago, ad_ceng said:

Long life food, savings out of cash or into currencies, get work done that needs to be done e.g. dental, Stock up on cleaning and sanitary products, booze etc gold silver, warm clothing and good shoes. Batteries and all the other thousandsof things which will become hard to get hold of 

 

1 hour ago, Austin Allegro said:

I guess make a list of all the things you had difficulties with during this Lockdown, and make preparations for them happening again but worse/for longer.

Eg some things I've been doing are brushing up on foraging skills so I can get green veg for free if there's none in the shops, and locating the nearest source of fresh water etc. I've also ordered emergency dental care kit and am building up stocks of homebrew. Stocking up on bicycle supplies etc. Buying physical silver.

All good ideas thanks. 

The only one I have issue with is the savings one. 

I have about 70% in UK gov certs :ph34r:

But of all the £ things to be in they may not actually be the worst. Inflation linked so could actually be less hammered if we get some very high inflation. I will probably keep. Most countries are fucked with is so who knows. 

£5k in premium bonds and I'm.happy leaving them there. 

Rest is in my ltd co. account so tricky what yo do with that. Getting out reducing tax is the annoying thing. And the future contract market is just a bit of a mess. Nobody knows what is happening. 

I might take this opportunity to close it down with entrepreneurs relief and use what I get to spread around various places. 

Max out my stocks and shares ISA then maybe rest in PM's. Although I have nowhere to keep them which is a bit of an issue. 

 

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I think there will be more peaks of infection from the virus.

My area is rural Scotland near the border to England. If I recall correctly Dumfries & Galloway is one of the lowest areas in Scotland for infection/deaths......well according to figures given.

On the other hand Barrow in Cumbria was touted as the worst affected area in the uk. 

In my opinion the virus infections will perhaps subside in more affected areas but increase in those less affected when people go out and about more to work, family/friend bubble meetings etc.

There could be a worse second wave starting in worst affected areas and that can’t be ruled out.

I’ve no idea really how this will pan out so I voted no idea etc option.

 

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9 minutes ago, Errol said:

We will know by middle of June if another massive wave is going to hit.

I think if it happens that will just be the continuation of the previous one. If there really is a 'second wave' it will hit in the autumn when seasonal flu comes back.

What worries me more is how often governments will be able to use the 'everybody back inside, the Covid is coming back!' excuse to stamp down the iron heel.

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Austin Allegro said:

I think if it happens that will just be the continuation of the previous one. If there really is a 'second wave' it will hit in the autumn when seasonal flu comes back.

What worries me more is how often governments will be able to use the 'everybody back inside, the Covid is coming back!' excuse to stamp down the iron heel.

 

If Covid19 is 'anything' we ain't seen nothing yet and this is what may be lulling us into a false sense of security - Meh, it's nothing much.

This last winter/spring SarsCov2 was new to the UK and it seeded in just a few places and we went into lockdown, which must have dramatically, reduced transmission.

Despite lockdown however, now, the virus is embedded throughout the country and will persist by infecting a few individuals over the summer. Then, come Autumn, if it's seasonal like other viruses, KABOOM and masses of infection.

Then, we'll see if Covid19 is something or nothing in terms of chaos.

 

Edited by Hopeful

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3 minutes ago, invalid said:

What is wave 2?

The virus?

Or the economic end of the world?

From where we are now, even the most optimistic outlook is rather grim. We are in the hole already.

Bill Gates has been telling the world to get ready for what he is calling "pandemic 2" for several weeks and as he is apparently some sort of world leader, that is what will happen, even if it doesn't. It has to happen because it is part of the plan.

The question I think I was trying to ask in the badly written OP was are we reaching a tipping point  where a significant proportion of the population are getting red pilled on a variety of aspects of the wider response to SARS2 and  the authorities will not be able impose the same conditions again as the political / constitutional, social and economic consequences of the first response are becoming a bigger issue than the virus itself.

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