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Posted (edited)

Austin Allegro posted this in the "4 Months On" Thread.

I was going to reply to it there, but, "Ego writing cheques my body probably can't cash", I thought Id start my own thread. 

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TBH I just don't care any more. We said all this after 2008 about austerity and it never happened. I am pretty sure no government will allow any kind of significant material downturn in living standards. The public just won't stand for it. Indeed they can't stand for it. The nation would burn to the ground within days if, after panic buying, the supermarkets could not restock. That's why I think we're going to get some sort of global economic debt write off to wipe the slate clean and start the party all over again.

Its important to note that Im not picking up on anything that AA has written, its just that his thread was the most convenient to pick up on.

So what would an economic reset actually look like? AA mentions a global economic debt write off, but a lot of those debts are held by pension funds, so what would be done about that? How about those with a £100k mortgage, but another £100k in stocks, shares, cash, etc on the other side of the balance sheet? Should their £100k debt be written off? If not how is that fair if someone else has £100k debt and no collateral?

Im not really sure what happens in countries which experience hyperinflation, eg Weimar Germany. Ive read that the currency was replaced by a new currency based on the value of property, or land. I just cant see how in a networked world such as we live in today, any such thing could be achieved.

Edited by Mirror Mirror
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I'm not sure how it could be done. It's possible that instead of a debt write off, we get a sort of disguised repayment, where all sorts of little changes that people don't notice now are instituted t

I imagine a lot of people will be looking at their lives, this experience, more time to be, the penny may drop about the unprecedented amount of money magicked out of nowhere and paying that back, and

I think Mondeo Man / Fiat 500 woman win from this as their earnings start going up and they find their mortgages / debt interest take an increasingly smaller amount of their income as a result.  They

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Seeing as I've never had any debt...

Although since the economy is a credit ponzi much of my money is probably because other people have taken on debt

So long as I'm better off for once* than those whom are balls deep and whose debts are written off, I don't care

I doubt I will be better off, however.

Of course, through being debt free I've always been better off in terms of being able to say 'fuck you' and so I guess I'd settle for that still being the case.

 

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Stealing from savers is another option, although I would imagine the proceeds would be a drop in the ocean of the billions Rishi is busily spunking up the wall. One off wealth tax is another,  hmrc visits to assess your wealth house, car, savings, financial assets etc and presents a bill for 5% of the total. Was it Greece or Cyprus where the government emptied the cash over  a certain amount in bank accounts and paid back the victims in government bonds?

AA is right about the less obvious ways that have happened since WWII, but are there many options left on that front? Alternatively, there is often talk of AI replacing management and admin civil service workers, which would both reduce wage bills and dump a load of office wallahs on the jobs market increasing competition and driving down wages.

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OK here's some back-of-fag-packet ideas of how HMG could raise money:

1. Increase top and middle rates of tax, making the productive pay whilst not affecting the non-net payers.

2. Increases in duty all over the place. They have to do this carefully though so that it is stealthy and not seen to be penalising healthy or environmentally friendly activities. A 'Vaping Tax' for example, increased VED on larger engined cars etc. More tax on alcohol for 'health' reasons.

3. Raise pension ages again, to something like 70 or 75, and bring the date much further forward,

4. Bring in compulsory degrees and professionalisation for everything. For example, skilled trades; make it a requirement to have degrees in joinery, plumbing etc and pay for annual licence to practice. Get the blue-collar apprenticeship schemes sucked into the 'uni' system and debt/loans culture;

5. Go legit on people trafficing. Take the money away from the criminals by setting up an 'assisted passage' scheme where you'll be brought in from darkest Africa on a more affordable package than the black market, but made to work legitimately and pay tax, plus some sort of annual residency charge etc. (this one is tricky because muh racism, but I think it could be done if it could be sold to the SJWs).

Just some ideas. Rishi, if you're reading this, I'd appreciate you crediting me if you use any of these.

 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Austin Allegro said:

OK here's some back-of-fag-packet ideas of how HMG could raise money:

1. Increase top and middle rates of tax, making the productive pay whilst not affecting the non-net payers.

2. Increases in duty all over the place. They have to do this carefully though so that it is stealthy and not seen to be penalising healthy or environmentally friendly activities. A 'Vaping Tax' for example, increased VED on larger engined cars etc. More tax on alcohol for 'health' reasons.

3. Raise pension ages again, to something like 70 or 75, and bring the date much further forward,

 

 

The pension ages don't make sense to me, work longer doing what? As unthinkable as the 5 day working week once was to industrialists and business I really think we're not that far off the 4 day working week becoming more standard for the majority of workers. Something has to give as all of the various credits and benefits are just masking the real lack of both available hours and pay. Knock down 20% and see where that leaves us. That is not quite UBI as some claim to be necessary but it certainly edges us closer to that mark. There is so much BS in the workplace now and I think COVID-19 only helps shine a light on who is actually producing and what jobs have been invented but serve no purpose. 

Tax increases on the poor and middle are counter productive, any additional tax on people who largely spend all of their discretionary income anyway serves what purpose? It is the top 0.1% that need to be taxed more.

Edited by SillyBilly
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1 minute ago, SillyBilly said:

The pension ages don't make sense to me, work longer doing what? As unthinkable as the 5 day working week once was to industrialists and business I really think we're not that far off the 4 day working week becoming more standard for the majority of workers. Something has to give as all of the various credits and benefits are just masking the real lack of both available hours and pay. Knock down 20% and see where that leaves us. That is not quite UBI as some claim to be necessary but it certainly edges us closer to that mark. There is so much BS in the workplace now and I think COVID-19 only helps shine a light on who is actually producing and what jobs have been invented but serve no purpose. 

Tax increases on the poor and middle are counter productive, any additional tax on people who largely spend all of their discretionary income anyway serves what purpose? It is the top 0.1% that need to be taxed more.

60 years ago people might have said the same about having almost every woman going out to work. To do what? But the economy adjusts accordingly. Raise the pension age and the country saves billions each year, and it matters not a jot what the 70 year olds do; most will probably adapt to some sort of part time work paying more tax.

I guess we need to look at what areas people would be willing to pay more tax in. The answer of course is social welfare and the NHS. An NHS Corona tax surcharge' or somesuch would be popular. The money doesn't need to go to the NHS it just needs to look as if it does.

Taxes on flights are another possibility. Not sold as British people paying extra to fly abroad, but for some sort of Covid protection against incomers, eg, 'as the government is now charging us mandatory incoming flights tax for Covid security we reluctantly have to pass this on to our customers etc etc'. If most other countries do the same it just becomes the norm and another unquestioned tax burden.

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Just now, Austin Allegro said:

60 years ago people might have said the same about having almost every woman going out to work. To do what? But the economy adjusts accordingly. Raise the pension age and the country saves billions each year, and it matters not a jot what the 70 year olds do; most will probably adapt to some sort of part time work paying more tax.

 

I don't feel there is much value in looking backwards and extrapolating out based on precedent. I suppose there are two camps here, those who believe that the information/automation age will create new jobs and markets or those (me) that believe jobs will still exist but the total no. of hours worked to get the same amount done will massively decrease. We've already had a good deal of the "leisure"/services transition to my mind so I am doubtful you can "bank" that same transition twice. My guess only, I could be wrong on that. Perhaps my brain can't compute all the new possibilities of what humans can actually do in the future.

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I imagine a lot of people will be looking at their lives, this experience, more time to be, the penny may drop about the unprecedented amount of money magicked out of nowhere and paying that back, and people may say sod that, I'm going to try to be happy and accept a more modest life. Government and the State is currently overly influenced by left-leaning lunatics, foaming at the mouth over some misplaced agenda or other.

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1 hour ago, Austin Allegro said:

OK here's some back-of-fag-packet ideas of how HMG could raise money:

1. Increase top and middle rates of tax, making the productive pay whilst not affecting the non-net payers.

2. Increases in duty all over the place. They have to do this carefully though so that it is stealthy and not seen to be penalising healthy or environmentally friendly activities. A 'Vaping Tax' for example, increased VED on larger engined cars etc. More tax on alcohol for 'health' reasons.

3. Raise pension ages again, to something like 70 or 75, and bring the date much further forward,

4. Bring in compulsory degrees and professionalisation for everything. For example, skilled trades; make it a requirement to have degrees in joinery, plumbing etc and pay for annual licence to practice. Get the blue-collar apprenticeship schemes sucked into the 'uni' system and debt/loans culture;

5. Go legit on people trafficing. Take the money away from the criminals by setting up an 'assisted passage' scheme where you'll be brought in from darkest Africa on a more affordable package than the black market, but made to work legitimately and pay tax, plus some sort of annual residency charge etc. (this one is tricky because muh racism, but I think it could be done if it could be sold to the SJWs).

Just some ideas. Rishi, if you're reading this, I'd appreciate you crediting me if you use any of these.

 

An online sales tax is the obvious answer. After all, nobody actually needs to pay it and therefore it is optional.

How could anyone possibly object to a tax that you can easily avoid?

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At work it takes ever increasing amounts of money to achieve less and less in a very specialised sector that uses very little off the shelf equipment.

Most of this is due to incredible layers of bureaucracy, regulation, financial control and micro-management.

It never used to be this bad and management is now the single biggest cost of doing anything.

Its almost like the whole system is a deliberate make work scheme concocted by the government and indeed our former membership of the EU.

2 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

An online sales tax is the obvious answer. After all, nobody actually needs to pay it and therefore it is optional.

How could anyone possibly object to a tax that you can easily avoid?

Just put 25% VAT on food, the money only goes round in circles anyway.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

At work it takes ever increasing amounts of money to achieve less and less in a very specialised sector that uses very little off the shelf equipment.

Most of this is due to incredible layers of bureaucracy, regulation, financial control and micro-management.

It never used to be this bad and management is now the single biggest cost of doing anything.

Its almost like the whole system is a deliberate make work scheme concocted by the government and indeed our former membership of the EU.

Just put 25% VAT on food, the money only goes round in circles anyway.

Yep, I am in chemicals, SME, one illustration this past week or so: I have a customer who we do about 70 product codes with. Wants min. 7-10 statements/certificates for EACH individual product code (REACH, SVHC, VOCs, Waste, Nanomaterials etc.). When could I get it to them for? Erm.... well considering you are asking for not far off 1000 documents to be made up next week isn't really possible. The f**king ridiculous thing is this has already been done by us with the same BS exercise with the UK subsidiary who requested the same s**t (even though it is contained in other documents). But some consultants in France want it in a new format again, less than 12 months later. This crap can be up to 75% of our workload.

When I am not attending to stuff like this I am doing the packaging obligation returns, the VOC returns, the tied oil returns, the local authority paperwork/inspections, customer audits/inspections, CE Marking surveillance. 99% total BS...

Edited by SillyBilly
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2 hours ago, Austin Allegro said:

OK here's some back-of-fag-packet ideas of how HMG could raise money:

1. Increase top and middle rates of tax, making the productive pay whilst not affecting the non-net payers.

2. Increases in duty all over the place. They have to do this carefully though so that it is stealthy and not seen to be penalising healthy or environmentally friendly activities. A 'Vaping Tax' for example, increased VED on larger engined cars etc. More tax on alcohol for 'health' reasons.

3. Raise pension ages again, to something like 70 or 75, and bring the date much further forward,

4. Bring in compulsory degrees and professionalisation for everything. For example, skilled trades; make it a requirement to have degrees in joinery, plumbing etc and pay for annual licence to practice. Get the blue-collar apprenticeship schemes sucked into the 'uni' system and debt/loans culture;

5. Go legit on people trafficing. Take the money away from the criminals by setting up an 'assisted passage' scheme where you'll be brought in from darkest Africa on a more affordable package than the black market, but made to work legitimately and pay tax, plus some sort of annual residency charge etc. (this one is tricky because muh racism, but I think it could be done if it could be sold to the SJWs).

Just some ideas. Rishi, if you're reading this, I'd appreciate you crediting me if you use any of these.

 

The more they push those the less they will get, the issue is more and more people are waking up to there scams and manipulation

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Posted (edited)

Money in comes from negative rates, (ie, you pay a tax on cash in bank account*).  This rapidly turns into a wealth tax (ie, you can't get around it by spending it on alternative stores of wealth).

Money out goes to tax relief on interest payments on debt held.  This starts off as son-of-MIRAS, but rapidly turns into relief on all debt interest payments.

[* this is what negative rates mean.  It doesn't ever mean that the bank pays you for having debt with them.]

Edited by dgul
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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, dgul said:

Money in comes from negative rates, (ie, you pay a tax on cash in bank account*).  This rapidly turns into a wealth tax (ie, you can't get around it by spending it on alternative stores of wealth).

Money out goes to tax relief on interest payments on debt held.  This starts off as son-of-MIRAS, but rapidly turns into relief on all debt interest payments.

[* this is what negative rates mean.  It doesn't ever mean that the bank pays you for having debt with them.]

This one is quite likely I think. It penalises savers, particularly large savers, which is only a tiny proportion of the population, and will drive some of them into inflating asset bubbles like BTL properties etc. I've already seen this with a relative who bought a house for cash to rent out, not because he particularly wanted to but because he saw it as a safer store of value than a bank account.

Edited by Austin Allegro
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3 minutes ago, Austin Allegro said:

This one is quite likely I think. It penalises savers, particularly large savers, which is only a tiny proportion of the population, and will drive some of them into inflating asset bubbles like BTL properties etc. I've already seen this with a relative who bought a house for cash to rent out, not because he particularly wanted to but because he saw it as a safer store of value than a bank account.

It is worth adding that we used to have a 'cash in bank wealth tax' -- because interest received was taxed as income.

Eg, if you had £100k in the bank and interest rates were at 5% pa (not unusual), the 'equivalent wealth tax' was 1% of cash in bank per year (base rate taxpayer).  

Sure, there's all sorts of fancy stuff about inflation assumptions -- but in a 5% world the government got about 1% of your wealth per year in tax.

Clearly, in a zero-rate world, the government doesn't get any tax from wealth-in-bank.  I think they'll like to get it back -- and in a zero-rate world the only way for then to get it is to tax wealth at (eg) 1% pa. 

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  • 2 months later...

I was thinking yesterday that most information we have is now stored in the form of microscopic magnets, and wondered whether it could all disappear in a flash given the right cosmic event. Then I read this article from the Spectator
https://life.spectator.co.uk/articles/the-case-of-the-disappearing-bitcoin/

Apparently, we've almost lost banks several time through mere mundane cockups.

is it not possible a similar event could at any time befall anyone who uses a traditional bank? According to Ross Anderson, professor of security engineering at Cambridge university’s computer laboratory, the answer is yes. He says in recent years a number of major international banks have had ‘scary near misses’ after getting their digital accounting systems into a mess.

Professor Anderson is unequivocal that in the case of a really big bank failure caused by a computing system error, proving the existence of funds held in your account would be nigh-on impossible. He says: ‘If you turned up with a bundle of paper bank statements, your bank would say, “Fuck off sonny, we only believe the computers.”

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21 minutes ago, Nippy said:

I was thinking yesterday that most information we have is now stored in the form of microscopic magnets, and wondered whether it could all disappear in a flash given the right cosmic event. Then I read this article from the Spectator
https://life.spectator.co.uk/articles/the-case-of-the-disappearing-bitcoin/

Apparently, we've almost lost banks several time through mere mundane cockups.

is it not possible a similar event could at any time befall anyone who uses a traditional bank? According to Ross Anderson, professor of security engineering at Cambridge university’s computer laboratory, the answer is yes. He says in recent years a number of major international banks have had ‘scary near misses’ after getting their digital accounting systems into a mess.

Professor Anderson is unequivocal that in the case of a really big bank failure caused by a computing system error, proving the existence of funds held in your account would be nigh-on impossible. He says: ‘If you turned up with a bundle of paper bank statements, your bank would say, “Fuck off sonny, we only believe the computers.”

Although it was a long time ago, after doing a stint at RBS I have been utterly convinced since that this occuring one day was a when not an if.

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Think of the UK population as a pile of people with the wealthiest at the top. The top 10% will stand to one side, the bottom 20% will stand to the other side. The middle 70% will stay where they are, with a huge weight coming down on them. You cannot take money from the people who make the rules, or those that don't have any money. That 20% is going to grow.... a lot.

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6 hours ago, Nippy said:

I was thinking yesterday that most information we have is now stored in the form of microscopic magnets, and wondered whether it could all disappear in a flash given the right cosmic event. Then I read this article from the Spectator
https://life.spectator.co.uk/articles/the-case-of-the-disappearing-bitcoin/

Apparently, we've almost lost banks several time through mere mundane cockups.

is it not possible a similar event could at any time befall anyone who uses a traditional bank? According to Ross Anderson, professor of security engineering at Cambridge university’s computer laboratory, the answer is yes. He says in recent years a number of major international banks have had ‘scary near misses’ after getting their digital accounting systems into a mess.

Professor Anderson is unequivocal that in the case of a really big bank failure caused by a computing system error, proving the existence of funds held in your account would be nigh-on impossible. He says: ‘If you turned up with a bundle of paper bank statements, your bank would say, “Fuck off sonny, we only believe the computers.”

One of my best mates uncle. Saw him on TV one time and asked my pal as he looked so like his brothers. Rather unexpectedly he replied yes he's our incredibly smart uncle. 

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2 minutes ago, ccc said:

One of my best mates uncle. Saw him on TV one time and asked my pal as he looked so like his brothers. Rather unexpectedly he replied yes he's our incredibly smart uncle. 

I have a smart uncle or two.

Just like me, neither of them own smartphones either...

 

 XYY

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