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Long time lurking
3 minutes ago, arbitrage said:

If this lock-down drags on any longer

I think it do really need to end now ,not for the reasons you are outlining more the sanity of the people 

Also if there is a second wave there has to be breathing space in between if there aint the chances of people adhering to a second lock down is zero

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13 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

I think it do really need to end now ,not for the reasons you are outlining more the sanity of the people 

Also if there is a second wave there has to be breathing space in between if there aint the chances of people adhering to a second lock down is zero

I think it's zero anyway. 

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I'm reading quite a good book at the moment, The Fourth Horseman by Andrew Nikiforuk.  He argues that most human infectious diseases have, at their root cause, overpopulation and overcrowding, intensive agriculture, expanding in to land previously uninhabitable, etc.  Gives quite a good history of the mass dies offs and subsequent societal change caused by plague, TB, smallpox (particularly in the new world), syphilis, etc.  Seems to suggest that it if it isn't this one that gets us, there should be one along soon enough that will.  Written 30 years ago with an eye to AIDS, but the historical stuff is still relevant and sobering.

I remember studying Malthus at school and his J shaped population curves, which seemed to make sense, but the massive population growth on the planet even since I was at school (more or less doubled in that time) seems to suggest that any correction when it comes is going to be messy.

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Long time lurking
1 minute ago, ccc said:

I think it's zero anyway. 

Well to a point i would agree ,but there will be no businesses flouting it and sitting around in parks and on beaches is not at the top of the list in November >

 

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5 minutes ago, Inigo said:

I'm reading quite a good book at the moment, The Fourth Horseman by Andrew Nikiforuk.  He argues that most human infectious diseases have, at their root cause, overpopulation and overcrowding, intensive agriculture, expanding in to land previously uninhabitable, etc.  Gives quite a good history of the mass dies offs and subsequent societal change caused by plague, TB, smallpox (particularly in the new world), syphilis, etc.  Seems to suggest that it if it isn't this one that gets us, there should be one along soon enough that will.  Written 30 years ago with an eye to AIDS, but the historical stuff is still relevant and sobering.

I remember studying Malthus at school and his J shaped population curves, which seemed to make sense, but the massive population growth on the planet even since I was at school (more or less doubled in that time) seems to suggest that any correction when it comes is going to be messy.

 

Disease and population density go hand in hand because of the effect of host density on disease transmission and the abundance of the disease agent.

Increase in host density --> greater  virus transmission --> greater abundance of the virus --> reduced abundance of the host --> reduced transmission --> reduced abundance of the virus --> increased abundance of the host.

Reduced host density with respect to transmisison can arise from host death, host immunity or behavioural change.
 

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5 hours ago, Hopeful said:

Rock and a hard place then

Short term vs long term pain

Deaths both ways.

I doubt the plebs are prepared for either

 

No, we are not stuck between a rock and a hard place

More like choosing between losing a fingernail or your head.

If we carry on as we are with the insane lock-down the economic and social disintergration that would result could easily kill off 20m British people. This is a certainty. If we keep going with this lock-down the probability that we can avoid economic collapse is miniscule

In exchange for what - to slow the rate of spread of a virus that kills, worse case scenario, less than 5% of the people it infects? You say that vaccines won't work and there won't be natural herd immunity. Therefore, all the lock-downs achieve is to delay the inevitable. This isn't certain though, is it? Not like the economic collapse that will happen over the next year as a direct consequence of lock-down. There is also a reasonably probability that the carnage caused by the lock-down will have been for nothing; this virus might mutate and become less deadly.

Therefore, on the balance of probabilities the only rational decision is to end the lock-down immediately

The fact that our politicians have chosen the lock-down signals that they're pursuing an alternative agenda

The outcomes of a continued lock-down aline perfectly with the depopulation agenda set out in the UN's Agenda 21.

Human action is purposeful behaviour.

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4 hours ago, arbitrage said:

No, we are not stuck between a rock and a hard place

More like choosing between losing a fingernail or your head.

If we carry on as we are with the insane lock-down the economic and social disintergration that would result could easily kill off 20m British people. This is a certainty. If we keep going with this lock-down the probability that we can avoid economic collapse is miniscule

In exchange for what - to slow the rate of spread of a virus that kills, worse case scenario, less than 5% of the people it infects? You say that vaccines won't work and there won't be natural herd immunity. Therefore, all the lock-downs achieve is to delay the inevitable. This isn't certain though, is it? Not like the economic collapse that will happen over the next year as a direct consequence of lock-down. There is also a reasonably probability that the carnage caused by the lock-down will have been for nothing; this virus might mutate and become less deadly.

Therefore, on the balance of probabilities the only rational decision is to end the lock-down immediately

The fact that our politicians have chosen the lock-down signals that they're pursuing an alternative agenda

The outcomes of a continued lock-down aline perfectly with the depopulation agenda set out in the UN's Agenda 21.

Human action is purposeful behaviour.

I'd be quite happy for people to accept a high death rate for a few years.

Perhaps also we could get the public to agree that Covid19 patients are denied ICU hospital treatment so they don't take ICU beds from others. Because most people that end up in ICU probably won't be recovering so what's the point trying.

Then we could carry on as normal and ignore Covid19

Somehow, I don't think the public are up for that.

Which is a shame.

Edited by Hopeful
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swiss_democracy_for_all
7 hours ago, arbitrage said:

No, we are not stuck between a rock and a hard place

More like choosing between losing a fingernail or your head.

If we carry on as we are with the insane lock-down the economic and social disintergration that would result could easily kill off 20m British people. This is a certainty. If we keep going with this lock-down the probability that we can avoid economic collapse is miniscule

In exchange for what - to slow the rate of spread of a virus that kills, worse case scenario, less than 5% of the people it infects? You say that vaccines won't work and there won't be natural herd immunity. Therefore, all the lock-downs achieve is to delay the inevitable. This isn't certain though, is it? Not like the economic collapse that will happen over the next year as a direct consequence of lock-down. There is also a reasonably probability that the carnage caused by the lock-down will have been for nothing; this virus might mutate and become less deadly.

Therefore, on the balance of probabilities the only rational decision is to end the lock-down immediately

The fact that our politicians have chosen the lock-down signals that they're pursuing an alternative agenda

The outcomes of a continued lock-down aline perfectly with the depopulation agenda set out in the UN's Agenda 21.

Human action is purposeful behaviour.

I'm not sure it's a conspiracy, I just think it's stupidity driven by Twitter hysteria and several generations of everyone becoming a bunch of pussies that can't look death in the eye.

I don't believe for a second the WW2 generation would have been so poncey, and we know for a fact the WW1 generation were not.

 

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9 hours ago, Hopeful said:

I'd be quite happy for people to accept a high death rate for a few years.

Perhaps also we could get the public to agree that Covid19 patients are denied ICU hospital treatment so they don't take ICU beds from others. Because most people that end up in ICU probably won't be recovering so what's the point trying.

Then we could carry on as normal and ignore Covid19

Somehow, I don't think the public are up for that.

Which is a shame.

They are not even being given the choice

That's the point!

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34 minutes ago, arbitrage said:

They are not even being given the choice

That's the point!

I think you can see from the public's response, the clapping for the NHS, what their choice would be.

But then again, as soon as the public want to rally on a bridge to clap in unison, all thoughts of the danger from the virus go out of the window. The idle public seem incapabe of rational thought, a comment I don't like to believe but seems to have been proven on many topics recently.

So, left to the public, I think we would be in an even worse place. And if we think the public have just been manipulated, what does that also say about the public's ability to make a choice.

If Covid19 played out across the UK like Italy, or like the scenes we appear to have witnessed in China, you would have your societal and economic collapse brought about by hysteria in any case.

I'm not saying the Governent's response has been right, I think it could have been more nuanced or refined; more like they planned originally perhaps.

The Government's response has however, been quite uneducated and depressing in practice (but so has the public's) but unfortunately, we had to have a response other than do nothing because of the fucking public.

 

Edited by Hopeful
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5 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

I think you can see from the public's response, the clapping for the NHS, what their choice would be.

But then again, as soon as the public want to rally on a bridge to clap in unison, all thoughts of the danger from the virus go out of the window. The idle public seem incapabe of rational thought, a comment I don't like to believe but seems to have been proven on many topics recently.

So, left to the public, I think we would be in an even worse place. And if we think the public have just been manipulated, what does that also say about the public's ability to make a choice.

If Covid19 played out across the UK like Italy, or like the scenes we appear to have witnessed in China, you would have your societal and economic collapse brought about by hysteria in any case.

I'm not saying the Governent's response has been right, I thnk it could have been more refined but unfortunately, we had to have a response other than do nothing because of the public.

 

The public has always been largely made up of idiots, fools, and followers.  Most of us on DOSBODS are the same, whether we know it or not.

Look at how people rushed to fight in the trenches.  Or rushed to tear down churches and idols in the puritan era.

Humans are tribal, stupid animals, in general

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Mirror Mirror
1 hour ago, Hopeful said:

I think you can see from the public's response, the clapping for the NHS, what their choice would be.

But then again, as soon as the public want to rally on a bridge to clap in unison, all thoughts of the danger from the virus go out of the window. The idle public seem incapabe of rational thought, a comment I don't like to believe but seems to have been proven on many topics recently.

So, left to the public, I think we would be in an even worse place. And if we think the public have just been manipulated, what does that also say about the public's ability to make a choice.

If Covid19 played out across the UK like Italy, or like the scenes we appear to have witnessed in China, you would have your societal and economic collapse brought about by hysteria in any case.

I'm not saying the Governent's response has been right, I think it could have been more nuanced or refined; more like they planned originally perhaps.

The Government's response has however, been quite uneducated and depressing in practice (but so has the public's) but unfortunately, we had to have a response other than do nothing because of the fucking public.

 

By and large the public will believe what the BBC, newspaper editors, and the messages that make it past the censors (Google, YouTube etc) tell them to believe, and behave in a way that those bodies deem appropriate.

There are a few who can think for themselves , but not in numbers to be of any great significance.

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On 02/07/2020 at 12:07, Hopeful said:

 

Disease and population density go hand in hand because of the effect of host density on disease transmission and the abundance of the disease agent.

Increase in host density --> greater  virus transmission --> greater abundance of the virus --> reduced abundance of the host --> reduced transmission --> reduced abundance of the virus --> increased abundance of the host.

Reduced host density with respect to transmisison can arise from host death, host immunity or behavioural change.
 

.

Edited by Harley
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The Masked Tulip
2 hours ago, JohnnyB said:

Not 100% sure, but it seems Victoria have started to put individual tower blocks under full lockdown, i.e. no leaving the front door.

 

Can't be important - when I googled 'victoria' Google News decided that the main story is looking back at David and Victoria Beckham's wedding of 1999.

9_9

Screenshot_2020-07-04 victoria - Google Search.png

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OK - time for a summary of the massive cock up in Victoria, thanks to - you guessed it - a 'socialist', 'left wing' government (they are not socialist and not left wing in my book).  Woke government though.

We had the deputy head of the health dept tweeting in the middle of the pandemic how Captain Cook was horrible and bad and racist.  That gives you an insight into their abilities.  If I was in a machine and our task was to stop people dying, I'd be spending 23 hours a day thinking about my work, not woke rubbish.

We are now in the position of these stats:

199 new cases in Australia today, of which 191 were in Victoria.  Several states are completely free of cases (and have closed borders). 75 of the recent cases in Melbourne linked to a small number of public housing towers stuffed with asylum seekers and druggies.  Melbourne locked down back to the controls in March, and a specific estate even more locked down with no one allowed to leave their home at all.

 

How did we get here?  The usual story of a 'woke' authority ignoring reality and playing favourites with their special interest groups.  The Premier in Victoria is Chairman Dan, who, by the way, signed a secret deal with China as part of the belt and road plan despite being warned by the federal government it wasn't a good idea.  I'd call that near to treason.  It only came out due to leaks, and well after the last state elections.

  • When the other states had BLM protests, several went to the courts to gain injunctions to stop of restrict them on health grounds.  courts overturned many, but the message was clear.  Other states also fined protestors and organisers.  Dan likes BLM, so he asked politely for people not to go (with a wink) and has fined three people.  Out of 10,000.  We know of at least 4 COV19 infected people that went on the march.
  • There was an outbreak at Cedar Meats processing plant.  Cedar Meats has a long history with Labor (donations) and union support.  The government did no actions and took on face value promises by Cedar Meats that no one ill was working after diagnosis.  Guess what?  Yup, infections rocketed.  Oh, and that only came out due to leaks - the state government would not name the company, despite naming others, until it was leaked
  • A large family gathering to mark the end of Ramavan infected dozens.  No fines, no actions, government said it was a language issue.  Meanwhile, they issued fined to people surfing, people in the car with their parents doing driving lessons (no contact with others), etc.
  • Other states accepted help from the federal gvt and used army and police for quarantine hotel security.  Dan's party doesn't like the army - nasty white men with guns - so they outsourced to private security firms, didn't train them or put requirements in place, and so everyone fucked about and got infected.  Oh, and the security firms also rorted the money in some cases.  No oversight by the state gvt, see.
  • Dan the man paid KPMG millions to help with the COV19 plan.  Whilst normal victorians were being sacked, he was shovelling millions into KMPG for - no one knows exactly what.  I wonder what job he was after post office?
  • The lockdown of the towers in Melbourne has highlighted, that just like Grenfell, Australia has thousands of fucking useless immigrants living in one of the most desireable cities in the world.  and BOY are they complaining now about treatment.  10,000 people refused to get tested when asked (door to door testing), many from multi-cultural communities in Melbourne. Well, fuckem is my view, and of many others I speak to here.  They are being given free food and medicine (including drugs for druggies).  As usual, multiculturalism is a weakness, not a strength, in a society challenged by events like this, and Dan the commie refuses to acknowledge this.

    in short, he's a dead man walking politically.  next election is in 2022, but I hope he goes before then
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swiss_democracy_for_all
2 hours ago, wherebee said:

OK - time for a summary of the massive cock up in Victoria, thanks to - you guessed it - a 'socialist', 'left wing' government (they are not socialist and not left wing in my book).  Woke government though.

We had the deputy head of the health dept tweeting in the middle of the pandemic how Captain Cook was horrible and bad and racist.  That gives you an insight into their abilities.  If I was in a machine and our task was to stop people dying, I'd be spending 23 hours a day thinking about my work, not woke rubbish.

We are now in the position of these stats:

199 new cases in Australia today, of which 191 were in Victoria.  Several states are completely free of cases (and have closed borders). 75 of the recent cases in Melbourne linked to a small number of public housing towers stuffed with asylum seekers and druggies.  Melbourne locked down back to the controls in March, and a specific estate even more locked down with no one allowed to leave their home at all.

 

How did we get here?  The usual story of a 'woke' authority ignoring reality and playing favourites with their special interest groups.  The Premier in Victoria is Chairman Dan, who, by the way, signed a secret deal with China as part of the belt and road plan despite being warned by the federal government it wasn't a good idea.  I'd call that near to treason.  It only came out due to leaks, and well after the last state elections.

  • When the other states had BLM protests, several went to the courts to gain injunctions to stop of restrict them on health grounds.  courts overturned many, but the message was clear.  Other states also fined protestors and organisers.  Dan likes BLM, so he asked politely for people not to go (with a wink) and has fined three people.  Out of 10,000.  We know of at least 4 COV19 infected people that went on the march.
  • There was an outbreak at Cedar Meats processing plant.  Cedar Meats has a long history with Labor (donations) and union support.  The government did no actions and took on face value promises by Cedar Meats that no one ill was working after diagnosis.  Guess what?  Yup, infections rocketed.  Oh, and that only came out due to leaks - the state government would not name the company, despite naming others, until it was leaked
  • A large family gathering to mark the end of Ramavan infected dozens.  No fines, no actions, government said it was a language issue.  Meanwhile, they issued fined to people surfing, people in the car with their parents doing driving lessons (no contact with others), etc.
  • Other states accepted help from the federal gvt and used army and police for quarantine hotel security.  Dan's party doesn't like the army - nasty white men with guns - so they outsourced to private security firms, didn't train them or put requirements in place, and so everyone fucked about and got infected.  Oh, and the security firms also rorted the money in some cases.  No oversight by the state gvt, see.
  • Dan the man paid KPMG millions to help with the COV19 plan.  Whilst normal victorians were being sacked, he was shovelling millions into KMPG for - no one knows exactly what.  I wonder what job he was after post office?
  • The lockdown of the towers in Melbourne has highlighted, that just like Grenfell, Australia has thousands of fucking useless immigrants living in one of the most desireable cities in the world.  and BOY are they complaining now about treatment.  10,000 people refused to get tested when asked (door to door testing), many from multi-cultural communities in Melbourne. Well, fuckem is my view, and of many others I speak to here.  They are being given free food and medicine (including drugs for druggies).  As usual, multiculturalism is a weakness, not a strength, in a society challenged by events like this, and Dan the commie refuses to acknowledge this.

    in short, he's a dead man walking politically.  next election is in 2022, but I hope he goes before then

Ok, that’s the way wokeism works, it fucks everything up and is corrupt, but surely this should be fairly easily squashed anyway?

With the advantages of the climate and a lowish population density, a lockdown of a few weeks will stop it pronto. Rather like in NZ, the question will then be “now what?”  Two week quarantine on all visitors for ever? I’d guess Oz could afford it longer than most, with the low national debt. But they could also do like Sweden and show the world this fuckwittery is unnecessary. 

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Part of the "problem" is that the actual virus isn't severe enough to scare people into modifying their behaviour. If it was then people would willingly do it, no question.

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22 minutes ago, eight said:

Part of the "problem" is that the actual virus isn't severe enough to scare people into modifying their behaviour. If it was then people would willingly do it, no question.

FFS, we have modified our behaviour hugely,

I thought that was what everyone was complaining about.

 

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Green Devil
21 minutes ago, eight said:

Part of the "problem" is that the actual virus isn't severe enough to scare people into modifying their behaviour. If it was then people would willingly do it, no question.

This is certainly true for the younger generation. The older generation certainly have modified their behaviour. My parents are too scared to leave their house! I think if the virus had of effected all persons of all ages equally it would have modified the behaviour of all generations and the it'd probably be gone by now. It was very clear from the start the young could continue as normal, and they've acted as expected. Not blaming anyone just saying that is a factor. 

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6 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

This is certainly true for the younger generation. The older generation certainly have modified their behaviour. My parents are too scared to leave their house! I think if the virus had of effected all persons of all ages equally it would have modified the behaviour of all generations and the it'd probably be gone by now. It was very clear from the start the young could continue as normal, and they've acted as expected. Not blaming anyone just saying that is a factor. 

perefectly understandable, those most at risk have modified their behaviour the most

of course it would benefit everyone long-term if everyone modified their behaviour

But to achieve that the virus would have to be dangerous across all ages, unless all ages could be persuaded to change their behavuour to protect others they had little interest in protecting

But then the virus would go extinct

Which is not in the virus' interests

There is little if any selection pressure to modify the lethality of a virus that kills hosts that are past reproductive age and are also, largely, useless to society in a social animal.

Evolution, innit

Edited by Hopeful
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23 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

FFS, we have modified our behaviour hugely,

I thought that was what everyone was complaining about.

 

Only through compulsion and shaming. I don't think too many did it willingly.

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15 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

perefectly understandable, those most at risk have modified their behaviour the most

 

Fucking hell, not enough facepalms in the World to properly respond to that.

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37 minutes ago, eight said:

Fucking hell, not enough facepalms in the World to properly respond to that.

It took a while, but they have around me. Taking a little while is expected. Nearly all the oldies and vulnerable are now PPE'd up and are social distancing, very few of the youngsters are in PPE. Initially, the oldies tried to contain the youngsters so that the oldies could be protected because they thought that would protect them, but there was a collective middle finger raised form the less vulnerable. There is still tut tutting, but to no effect. That is an understandable societal behavioural response to the arrival of a new threat - a sorting out or acclimation so to speak; whether people realise it or not. It's not an evolutionary response yet because there has been no genetic changes in the host, other than the behavioural response itself is a result of evolution of course.

The above is a rural area where peole can social distance easily. In dense urban areas, public transport etc there has been a behavioural change to everyone wearing masks, which is a sensible behaviourlal change because of population densty and it's effect upon transmisison.

We may see a corollary in myxomatosis in rabbits, the virus has a similar period of 14 days before symptoms show

In rabbits, several effects have been noticed, there were suggestions of behavioural changes - rabbits spend longer above ground and, in time, there were genetic changes in their immune response, changes that relaxed/reversed when the virus became less prevalent.

The ecological effects of the decline in Rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus L.) due to myxomatosis

New research explains how rabbits adapted to survive myxomatosis

Darwin's rabbit helps to explain the fightback against myxomatosis through natural selection

 

Edited by Hopeful
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