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I think for a few million there is going to be no work of any kind when the furlough money tap is turned off. I already know a couple of people who are going to burn because of this. I also

Agreed. I'm not sitting in a restaurant surrounded by plastic screens like a rat in a lab. I won't be alone with this thinking.

Things will only go back to normal if people are allowed to live like normal.   All the social distancing rules are  like putting sand in the gearbox, and we are doing it all over the place.

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I've spoken to lots of friends and relations on Zoom over the Lockdown and everybody has been very positive about working from home. Nobody has said they really miss the office or the commute. There's been a general agreement though that full time permanent teleworking won't happen, but rather there will be 2-3 'core days' per week when staff are expected to be in the office for meetings etc. (These friends are people in fairly senior positions who have some input into this kind of thing).

I think when bosses realise just how much money they can save on office space and utilities they will quickly get on board. Prior to lockdown I think there were a lot of bosses who were suspicious of homeworking and who did not want to risk it, now they have seen that it's generally to everyone's advantage.

I suspect however that the working day will increase from 9-5 to 8-6 though, as the gained commuting time is seen as 'company' time.

Edited by Austin Allegro
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35 minutes ago, Dave Bloke said:

So will we all stay on teleworking after the Covid crisis ends?

I was musing in another thread that teleworking poses an existential threat for bloated western governments with huge benefits bills. What is to stop the intellectual elite just upping sticks and going to live in a more conducive environment?

Healthcare is the main issue.

And brexit should put an end to the rats who live abroad and hightail it back to the uk when they need expensive healthcare treatment. 

Getting the EHIC card gone will be a great start. 

Edited by WorkingPoor
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6 minutes ago, Austin Allegro said:

I've spoken to lots of friends and relations on Zoom over the Lockdown and everybody has been very positive about working from home. Nobody has said they really miss the office or the commute. There's been a general agreement though that full time permanent teleworking won't happen, but rather there will be 2-3 'core days' per week when staff are expected to be in the office for meetings etc. (These friends are people in fairly senior positions who have some input into this kind of thing).

I think when bosses realise just how much money they can save on office space and utilities they will quickly get on board. Prior to lockdown I think there were a lot of bosses who were suspicious of homeworking and who did not want to risk it, now they have seen that it's generally to everyone's advantage.

I suspect however that the working day will increase from 9-5 to 8-6 though, as the gained commuting time is seen as 'company' time.

Agree. I wanted to encourage it at my last place for my own team (IT) who didn't have support roles, as a couple of them had horrendous commutes and were more productive when working from home.

We tried it across the whole company, but it created a lot of problems, via personnel, of things like having approriate space, equipment, internet connection quality, workspace assesments and the like, in the end the chief exec binned the idea because of the problems it generated, there were only a few people across the company doing it officially by the time I left.

A shame as it makes sense for a lot of people depending on their role

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From my experience so far, most of the online meetings I've been involved in have been substandard (maybe 10 or 12). They are quicker than face to face meetings but feel 'artificial' to me and I sincerely believe details will be missed, opinions not properly considered and projects affected because of this.

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5 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

From my experience so far, most of the online meetings I've been involved in have been substandard (maybe 10 or 12). They are quicker than face to face meetings but feel 'artificial' to me and I sincerely believe details will be missed, opinions not properly considered and projects affected because of this.

I agree, I think that is why there will have to be 'core days' for important meetings. Day to day stuff can be done on Zoom but anything involving long discussions etc needs to be done in person, in my experience, or people get left out and others start empire-building.

Hot desking will also become the norm I think - this was already happening when I left my company a couple of years ago - with junior officers not expected to have their own desk and to use a laptop.

 

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25 minutes ago, MrLibertyRedux said:

I think for a few million there is going to be no work of any kind when the furlough money tap is turned off.

I already know a couple of people who are going to burn because of this.

I also know plenty of others who just don't seem to grasp the scale of the economic crisis we are facing.

There's certainly going to be one group of people in for a huge shock and surprise when the economic impact of Covid becomes clear, the trouble is I still haven't got a clue whether that group will be:

 

-Those that are predicting recession, depression, mass unemployment etc,

or

-Those that are blissfully unconcerned, still revelling in their current idle days of netflix and daily strolls and still spending money like it's going out of fashion.

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Just now, Royston said:

There's certainly going to be one group of people in for a huge shock and surprise when the economic impact of Covid becomes clear, the trouble is I still haven't got a clue whether that group will be:

 

-Those that are predicting recession, depression, mass unemployment etc,

or

-Those that are blissfully unconcerned, still revelling in their current idle days of netflix and daily strolls and still spending money like it's going out of fashion.

I still think there is going to be some sort of major economic reset or debt jubilee, leading to a major restructuring of western economies.

If there isn't, then we just carry on as normal spending government scrip from a bottomless basket, with the inevitable collapse somehow kicked further down the road again.

The way HMG has been spending money like a drunken sailor on shore leave also suggests to me that nobody in the UK will be allowed to suffer any kind of 'austerity' of any major kind.

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15 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

From my experience so far, most of the online meetings I've been involved in have been substandard (maybe 10 or 12). They are quicker than face to face meetings but feel 'artificial' to me and I sincerely believe details will be missed, opinions not properly considered and projects affected because of this.

Yes, they are really not good at all.

The only ones that have worked have been where I have been doing >90% of the talking so more of a lecture than a meeting.

When it is that one way transfer of knowledge the interaction isn't important but when it is a genuine meeting requiring interaction it just doesn't happen as people aren't sufficiently relaxed.

I was at one company with a split site where each was equipped with a "media room" with sound and vision linked to each other.

There was a weekly meeting for the managers in one section via the media room but that was really just a progress report from the meetings proper that were held at each site by rotation every three or four weeks with half the managers having to travel each time.

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5 minutes ago, Austin Allegro said:

I still think there is going to be some sort of major economic reset or debt jubilee, leading to a major restructuring of western economies.

If there isn't, then we just carry on as normal spending government scrip from a bottomless basket, with the inevitable collapse somehow kicked further down the road again.

The way HMG has been spending money like a drunken sailor on shore leave also suggests to me that nobody in the UK will be allowed to suffer any kind of 'austerity' of any major kind.

Either way that sounds like a win for the debt junkies.

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8 minutes ago, Austin Allegro said:

I still think there is going to be some sort of major economic reset or debt jubilee, leading to a major restructuring of western economies.

If there isn't, then we just carry on as normal spending government scrip from a bottomless basket, with the inevitable collapse somehow kicked further down the road again.

The way HMG has been spending money like a drunken sailor on shore leave also suggests to me that nobody in the UK will be allowed to suffer any kind of 'austerity' of any major kind.

My theory on this is that the Conservatives have had a bit of an awakening with regard to public spending and debt.

For decades there has been a pattern of Conservatives repaying debt and balancing the budget followed by Labour winning votes by saying they will spend spend spend and do it with the money that the Conservatives have saved through austerity and higher taxes.

Effectively the Conservatives have been funding Labour largesse and Labour gets the votes for it.

So now they are going to spend rather than save that money so that when Labour get in they are unable to increase spending and borrowing or win votes by saying that they will do that.

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2 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

My theory on this is that the Conservatives have had a bit of an awakening with regard to public spending and debt.

For decades there has been a pattern of Conservatives repaying debt and balancing the budget followed by Labour winning votes by saying they will spend spend spend and do it with the money that the Conservatives have saved through austerity and higher taxes.

Effectively the Conservatives have been funding Labour largesse and Labour gets the votes for it.

So now they are going to spend rather than save that money so that when Labour get in they are unable to increase spending and borrowing or win votes by saying that they will do that.

Good theory. I think also as the politicians who came of age before the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 have now nearly all gone, the very idea of 'fiscal responsibility' is quaint and old-fashioned. Money is conjured out of the air so why is there any need to be stingy about it, especially if such stinginess is a vote-loser?

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1 hour ago, Austin Allegro said:

Friend of mine who is something high up in a City counting-house says teleworking will continue under Lockdown conditions until December at his firm.

We are planning on moving from our huge building that used to house 2,000 devs to a new place that has room for 450. We're currently about 500 ish so they figure 50 people will retire. One of the main drivers was the sheer cost of the old building which consumes huge amounts of energy to heat or air condition. The new building is just being planned but I'd cut it down to 200 desks + meeting rooms and have everyone teleworking 2/3 days per week. The traffic jams and air pollution here are legendary and it would have a big impact if every firm locally did that. For the first time in a couple of decades the air has actually been clean.

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1 hour ago, MrLibertyRedux said:

I think for a few million there is going to be no work of any kind when the furlough money tap is turned off.

I already know a couple of people who are going to burn because of this.

I also know plenty of others who just don't seem to grasp the scale of the economic crisis we are facing.

Everyone seems to think it will pop back to normal, and it will be business as usual.

The next 2  -5 years are going to be very tough

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1 hour ago, MrLibertyRedux said:

I also know plenty of others who just don't seem to grasp the scale of the economic crisis we are facing.

That's what I'm seeing, people planning all kinds of exotic holidays for 2021, new kitchens, someone I know has even just completed the purchase of a seaside flat for airbnb

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3 minutes ago, Dave Bloke said:

We are planning on moving from our huge building that used to house 2,000 devs to a new place that has room for 450. We're currently about 500 ish so they figure 50 people will retire. One of the main drivers was the sheer cost of the old building which consumes huge amounts of energy to heat or air condition. The new building is just being planned but I'd cut it down to 200 desks + meeting rooms and have everyone teleworking 2/3 days per week. The traffic jams and air pollution here are legendary and it would have a big impact if every firm locally did that. For the first time in a couple of decades the air has actually been clean.

Friend of mine in a quite large NGO says during Lockdown a lot of the work has been to do with re-organising the staff into the new ways of working so there are no plans to go back to the old ways, even if they wanted to it would take several weeks of re-re-organising just to get things back to how they were before.

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1 minute ago, Dave Bloke said:

That's what I'm seeing, people planning all kinds of exotic holidays for 2021, new kitchens, someone I know has even just completed the purchase of a seaside flat for airbnb

That is insanity, I just booked a weeks UK break for late sept in the UK mostly to give my wife something who spends day in / out looking after our 3 year old while I try to keep my business going 

Talked to a friend this morning who lost his job a few months ago his car is going back as he cannot afford it and it is a simple car.

I am glad in a way I have no debt outside the mortage and the cars are paid for, there will be no big spending from me for a good few years.Even my business travel is going to stop. 

 

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4 minutes ago, ad_ceng said:

Everyone seems to think it will pop back to normal, and it will be business as usual.

The next 2  -5 years are going to be very tough

That's what people were saying on TOS when the crash of '08 hit.

Apart from some half-hearted attempts by yummy-mummies to cash in on reviving post-war austerity by making eggless cupcakes etc there was never any real change to anybody's lifestyle once the dust of the crash settled.

Yes things were bad for a couple of years in the states, but here the party just rolled on, with the entire economy restructured to maintain high asset prices.

I think it will be just the same this time round, only with more money-printing and government intervention/makework schemes and no attempt at austerity or paying off the debt, which is too big to be repaid anyway.

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1 minute ago, Austin Allegro said:

That's what people were saying on TOS when the crash of '08 hit.

Apart from some half-hearted attempts by yummy-mummies to cash in on reviving post-war austerity by making eggless cupcakes etc there was never any real change to anybody's lifestyle once the dust of the crash settled.

Yes things were bad for a couple of years in the states, but here the party just rolled on, with the entire economy restructured to maintain high asset prices.

I think it will be just the same this time round, only with more money-printing and government intervention/makework schemes and no attempt at austerity or paying off the debt, which is too big to be repaid anyway.

We will see but honestly they cannot keep these plates spinning much longer 

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Some more thoughts, on Zoom, no-one knows your a dog

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/boomers-30/202005/will-the-pandemic-make-corporate-culture-more-age-friendly

2 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

toilets are going to be an issue, urinals (due to virus in aerosol particles) to disappear and gender neutral cubicles will be used with associated queues. People just won't go out if that's what awaits a trip to the cinema/concert/footy/theatre - have you booked your half time piss ?

I just piss in the company car park, in the director's spot

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