Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

Recommended Posts

There's always something to worry about; you can't actually de-risk everything as that leaves you with nothing (or, all the money spent and none of the threats actually emerging). 

When a threat does emerge it is easy to point to things that you could have done better, but to do so only highlights your ignorance of the complexity of the world.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, dgul said:

There's always something to worry about; you can't actually de-risk everything as that leaves you with nothing (or, all the money spent and none of the threats actually emerging). 

When a threat does emerge it is easy to point to things that you could have done better, but to do so only highlights your ignorance of the complexity of the world.

This sounds a bit like throwing one's hands up in despair though. There are things that could be done to derisk future pandemics with modest resourcing.

Even Wikipedia has a decent enough list of potential pandemic viruses: Viral hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, Rift Valley fever, Marburg virus disease and Bolivian hemorrhagic fever; influenza viruses; coronaviruses; Zika. These are all viruses that have jumped into humans already, and although pandemic-able strains have not yet done so the warning signs are there.

It costs about $1bn to develop a new drug, so for $20bn a consortium of governments could identify the top 20 potential pandemic viruses and spend 10-15 years developing 20 broad-spectrum antiviral drugs against each of them. Once the drugs are developed they stay developed, doesn't matter if they are needed in 1 year or 250 years they will still be available. Given the trillions governments are having to chuck at Covid-19 $20bn is really nothing.

Sure, it's not a perfect guarantee that all possible pandemics could be prevented. The drugs might not work against a particular strain, or the pandemic could come from a virus that's not on the list. But so far the only pandemic virus we have broad spectrum antivirals against is flu (and those drugs are not perfect and could probably be improved upon) and as this example has shown flu is not the only virus that could do this.

Edited by Darude
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, dgul said:

There's always something to worry about; you can't actually de-risk everything as that leaves you with nothing (or, all the money spent and none of the threats actually emerging). 

When a threat does emerge it is easy to point to things that you could have done better, but to do so only highlights your ignorance of the complexity of the world.

I agree.

Nature always throws curve balls collectively and individually. There’s no point in worrying about things out with individual control. Best to be aware of what’s going on in the world, use common sense/personal risk assessment and make the best of it plus attempt reducing/spending on debt, unhealthy diet/addictions, lose weight, try to gain skills to improve earning potential etc. 

Daily mail ramping up the fear today https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8370969/The-apocalyptic-killer-virus-coming-home-roost.html

Edited by Van Lady
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Darude said:

This sounds a bit like throwing one's hands up in despair though. There are things that could be done to derisk future pandemics with modest resourcing.

Even Wikipedia has a decent enough list of potential pandemic viruses: Viral hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, Rift Valley fever, Marburg virus disease and Bolivian hemorrhagic fever; influenza viruses; coronaviruses; Zika. These are all viruses that have jumped into humans already, and although pandemic-able strains have not yet done so the warning signs are there.

It costs about $1bn to develop a new drug, so for $20bn a consortium of governments could identify the top 20 potential pandemic viruses and spend 10-15 years developing 20 broad-spectrum antiviral drugs against each of them. Once the drugs are developed they stay developed, doesn't matter if they are needed in 1 year or 250 years they will still be available. Given the trillions governments are having to chuck at Covid-19 $20bn is really nothing.

Sure, it's not a perfect guarantee that all possible pandemics could be prevented. The drugs might not work against a particular strain, or the pandemic could come from a virus that's not on the list. But so far the only pandemic virus we have broad spectrum antivirals against is flu (and those drugs are not perfect and could probably be improved upon) and as this example has shown flu is not the only virus that could do this.

But that's just viruses.  There's plenty of things to worry about out there.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, dgul said:

But that's just viruses.  There's plenty of things to worry about out there.

Fair enough, the list doesn't just have to be viruses.

In occupational health and safety it's important to document and change working practices when there are near misses or minor injuries because they demonstrate where there is potential for a serious injury or death. In pandemic terms that could be epidemics, diseases that were able to spread to many people in a limited geographical area but not quite infectious enough to get almost everywhere. Covid-19 is very similar to SARS and MERS biologically but just different enough to infect people before symptoms appear so it has a much higher R value. In occupational health terms, SARS and MERS were the near misses and it was poor practice that they were ignored.

Here's a list of historic epidemics, again it seems a decent place to start if you want to predict where a future pandemic could come from and develop suitable drugs ahead of time:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

A lot of these historic examples have already been addressed by effective vaccines (e.g. smallpox, measles) but perhaps the world should get cracking on a proper bubonic plague vaccine as it is still out there.

Edited by Darude
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, JackieO said:
We are not prepared for a pandemic. Trump has rolled back progress President Obama and I made to strengthen global health security. We need leadership that builds public trust, focuses on real threats, and mobilizes the world to stop outbreaks before they reach our shores.
 

Fine words. No mention of the WHO. 

Is that like all the other viruses and so and so and so etc etc etc a list too long too mention ...........................

under all parties when viruses treatment and global health was so great and pharmas weren't just out to gouge money from people left right and centre.

Edited by twocents
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Darude said:

This sounds a bit like throwing one's hands up in despair though. There are things that could be done to derisk future pandemics with modest resourcing.

Even Wikipedia has a decent enough list of potential pandemic viruses: Viral hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, Rift Valley fever, Marburg virus disease and Bolivian hemorrhagic fever; influenza viruses; coronaviruses; Zika. These are all viruses that have jumped into humans already, and although pandemic-able strains have not yet done so the warning signs are there.

It costs about $1bn to develop a new drug, so for $20bn a consortium of governments could identify the top 20 potential pandemic viruses and spend 10-15 years developing 20 broad-spectrum antiviral drugs against each of them. Once the drugs are developed they stay developed, doesn't matter if they are needed in 1 year or 250 years they will still be available. Given the trillions governments are having to chuck at Covid-19 $20bn is really nothing.

Sure, it's not a perfect guarantee that all possible pandemics could be prevented. The drugs might not work against a particular strain, or the pandemic could come from a virus that's not on the list. But so far the only pandemic virus we have broad spectrum antivirals against is flu (and those drugs are not perfect and could probably be improved upon) and as this example has shown flu is not the only virus that could do this.

Fauci 2017.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Calcutta said:

When all vehicles are limited to 20mph, sugar is illegal and anyone overweight is forced to exercise until they're not fat anymore then we can start worrying about some ridiculous viruses.

Personally I'd rather have some pills stored in a warehouse so that the next time this happens life can carry on pretty much as normal instead of the prime minister announcing next week's safety procedure to follow when using the toilet at your mum's house.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...