Nationwide building society expects house prices to fall 13.8 per cent this year

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

Whee!

House price forecasts

Bank of England: Fall of 16% 

Nationwide: Fall of 13.8% 

Cebr: Fall of 13%

Savills: 5 to 10% fall on thin sales

Liberum: Fall of 7% in real prices

Lloyds Banking Group: 5 to 10% fall 

EY's Howard Archer: Fall of 5%

Knight Frank: Fall of 7%

 

My only caveat is that there is likely to be a huge lag in these being reflected in the market because sellers have an emotional attachment to their house "values".  ("It's worth a million a tell ya!").

The 1998 crash didn't fully work its way through into a full volume house market at those lower values until 1995/96.

Though this does mean that I'm going to have to start tracking the sort of house I want (ability to launch into creek / estuary from the bottom of the garden) so that I will spot when the reduction has been fully reflected in the asking price.

 

Basically, they dont know nothing. There no science, they are just putting their finger i n the air and guessing, as they always do.

I always find the commenting on house prices by themselves nuts.

Whats drives the market is earnings and availability of credit and cost.

Once you start thinking, correctly, along those lines, it becomes brtuall.

London is going to fall under 5x earnings. It only went above 5x as they started with IO mortgages, then IO BTL.

Thats a lot of sales to roll back. And theres not been much in the way of wage increases.

In the North, where salary multiples are not too bad,the problem is lack of buyers. More nn more 65+ seller 'not giving away' as theres only ~20% of the under40s available to get a mortgage 100k+

 

 

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Basically, they dont know nothing. There no science, they are just putting their finger i n the air and guessing, as they always do.

I always find the commenting on house prices by themselves nuts.

Whats drives the market is earnings and availability of credit and cost.

Once you start thinking, correctly, along those lines, it becomes brtuall.

London is going to fall under 5x earnings. It only went above 5x as they started with IO mortgages, then IO BTL.

Thats a lot of sales to roll back. And theres not been much in the way of wage increases.

In the North, where salary multiples are not too bad,the problem is lack of buyers. More nn more 65+ seller 'not giving away' as theres only ~20% of the under40s available to get a mortgage 100k+

 

 

 

 

Killer Bunny on TOS is predicting rising interest rates this/next year when inflation kicks in.  That, when it happens, will single handedly destroy the housing bubble prices.  No bad thing.  For all those waiting for a bargain, I hope they realise...they're coming down and not going up in several generations. Being a homo(wner) will be no route to wealth.

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Killer Bunny on TOS is predicting rising interest rates this/next year when inflation kicks in.  That, when it happens, will single handedly destroy the housing bubble prices.  No bad thing.  For all those waiting for a bargain, I hope they realise...they're coming down and not going up in several generations. Being a homo(wner) will be no route to wealth.

Don't forget the double whammy of inadequate pension provision amongst those who strive to keep up with the Joneses.

The truly wealthy will be those that can retire or don't retire in poverty.

[Frank Hovis]

4 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Basically, they dont know nothing. There no science, they are just putting their finger i n the air and guessing, as they always do.

I always find the commenting on house prices by themselves nuts.

Whats drives the market is earnings and availability of credit and cost.

Once you start thinking, correctly, along those lines, it becomes brtuall.

London is going to fall under 5x earnings. It only went above 5x as they started with IO mortgages, then IO BTL.

Thats a lot of sales to roll back. And theres not been much in the way of wage increases.

In the North, where salary multiples are not too bad,the problem is lack of buyers. More nn more 65+ seller 'not giving away' as theres only ~20% of the under40s available to get a mortgage 100k+

 

The point is that they are all predicting material falls.

Having read this buyers will sit on their hands and sellers become desperate.

In a way it's self-fulfilling like the newspapers reporting minor shortages of toilet rolls leading to panic buying and major shortages.

 

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Killer Bunny on TOS is predicting rising interest rates this/next year when inflation kicks in.  That, when it happens, will single handedly destroy the housing bubble prices.  No bad thing.  For all those waiting for a bargain, I hope they realise...they're coming down and not going up in several generations. Being a homo(wner) will be no route to wealth.

This time I don't think we need to rely upon interest rates going up; which is fortunate because I'm not coninced that they will for two reasons:

The government will be very reluctant to raise interest rates and will welcome inflation as a way of eroding their huge debt

From where will this inflation anway arise?  The EU, UK and US have ben desperately trying to stoke higher inflation for years without success.  It's not like the 70s and 80s when inflation was always trying to race away.  People have much less disposable income these days.

[nirvana]

10 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Basically, they dont know nothing

If they dont know nothing then they 'know something'!

Christ the grammar and the logic around here is fecking atrocious  

[leonardratso]

it aint not wot it never was.

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Killer Bunny on TOS is predicting rising interest rates this/next year when inflation kicks in

I'm calling bollocks on that! Where is this 'killer bunny' dude? 

Even if inflation is 'kicking in' 'soon' they'll just bloody misreport it as per usual......

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

The government will be very reluctant to raise interest rates and will welcome inflation as a way of eroding their huge debt

From where will this inflation anway arise?  The EU, UK and US have ben desperately trying to stoke higher inflation for years without success.  It's not like the 70s and 80s when inflation was always trying to race away.  People have much less disposable income these days

Exactly I agree with Frank so in good company there 

Edit: I remember years ago when I lived in the 'poshburbs' circa 2008...went to a posh garden party and got talking to this 'banker/trader dude' and he was saying back then, 'ah yes the government want to inflate away the debt' and I was like hmmmmm.....

Problem is the debt has been going parabolic ever since....it may seem less as a 'percentage' of 'overall debt' but it's all a load of bollocks and 'banker speak' in any case....

Financial collapse incoming the way the central banks are printing money....give it 5-10 years max 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just now, 5min OCD speculator said:

Exactly I agree with Frank so in good company there 

@DurhamBornmight be able to give an opinion on this.

[Frank Hovis]

2 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

I'm calling bollocks on that! Where is this 'killer bunny' dude? 

Even if inflation is 'kicking in' 'soon' they'll just bloody misreport it as per usual......

If that's a genuine question then Killer Bunny was Financial Advisor; real name Jonathan somebody.

He knows his stuff and has been interviewed on telly several times.

I take note of what he says but within economic forceasting nobody is always right.

[BearyBear]

This is a potential scenario for hyperinflation.

 

[nirvana]

11 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

If that's a genuine question then Killer Bunny was Financial Advisor; real name Jonathan somebody.

ah yes Jonathan Davies? I follow him on twatter....not sure why though, he's a 'macro tourist'......retweets a load of crap! 

On that note I'll dive for cover and head off 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

 

I'm not saying that the timeline will be exactly replicated but the same underlying processes will be at work meaning that the coming onto market of houses at the new reduced values will be slow and the people looking to bag an early bargain will be many which will stop the falls becoming fully refelected for some time.

My vague timescale for buying somehwere with water frontage was 5 / 6 years and if these falls transpire then I may bring it in to 3 / 4 years.

Rushing to bag an early "bargain" will mean paying more than you need to pay.

 

I think there'll be a lot of dip buyers buying a lot of dips.

This will take a long time to clear to perma bulls.

[sancho panza]

40 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Killer Bunny on TOS is predicting rising interest rates this/next year when inflation kicks in.  That, when it happens, will single handedly destroy the housing bubble prices.  No bad thing.  For all those waiting for a bargain, I hope they realise...they're coming down and not going up in several generations. Being a homo(wner) will be no route to wealth.

I do enjoy his posts .He STRed in 2002 iirc...................................

38 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Don't forget the double whammy of inadequate pension provision amongst those who strive to keep up with the Joneses.

The truly wealthy will be those that can retire or don't retire in poverty.

This is the DB thesis I belvie,pensioners accessing capital to live.

[Frank Hovis]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think there'll be a lot of dip buyers buying a lot of dips.

This will take a long time to clear to perma bulls.

Yes, and all of those afraid of "missing the boat".

I know what I want and what I'm prepared to pay for it.  That requires 30% - 40% falls in real terms and I have long seen that as being highly likely to happen at some point in the next twenty years.

With the main commentators / VIs now openly predicting big falls and with the unemployment rise  and accompanying wage suppression following the WuFlu I think we've just hit the start of those falls and my twenty years suddenly reduces to about six.

[sancho panza]

2 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Yes, and all of those afraid of "missing the boat".

I know what I want and what I'm prepared to pay for it.  That requires 30% - 40% falls in real terms and I have long seen that as being highly likely to happen at some point in the next twenty years.

With the main commentators / VIs now openly predicting big falls and with the unemployment rise  and accompanying wage suppression following the WuFlu I think we've just hit the start of those falls and my twenty years suddenly reduces to about six.

WOlf St demonstarting how localised the property market are.Amazing to see cities in the same states with such differences in pending home sales

Gonna be intersting to see how this plays out geograpically transaction wise.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/30/from-ice-cold-to-hot-daily-pending-home-sales-in-may-so-far-15-cities-around-the-us/

[DurhamBorn]

HTB estates should be where we see it first.Lots of younger people up to their naffs in it.Job losses and splitting up should start things rolling.The government might come in with some crazy scheme yet,but lets hope the CBs are turning off the liquidity by then as they likely will be.Its all bad for anyone who over paid the last several years.The only saving grace is the ones who bought with a good deposit and locked in a 10 year fix,they at least will avoid the high rates mid to late decade.

[Frank Hovis]

34 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

This is a potential scenario for hyperinflation.

Interesting but even if that the case, and there is a lot of wish fulfillmnet there which even he says has been his prediction for fifteen years or more and it hasn't happened, it only serves to underline what is the most commonly held investment view on the forum: don't hold cash as an investment.

I thought he was particularly sneaky with his graph of the Dow crashing; as it was subtitled "measured in gold".  In reality stock markets will generally track / exceed inflation as they are the ownershp of the companies that make or sell the products that are inflating.

I think PMs within a portfolio are a good idea but he hasn't persuaded me to sell everything and buy gold and a shotgun any time soon.

[BearyBear]

Just now, Frank Hovis said:

Interesting but even if that the case, and there is a lot of wish fulfillmnet there which even he says has been his prediction for fifteen years or more and it hasn't happened, it only serves to underline what is the most commonly held investment view on the forum: don't hold cash as an investment.

I thought he was particularly sneaky with his graph of the Dow crashing; as it was subtitled "measured in gold".  In reality stock markets will generally track / exceed inflation as they are the ownershp of the companies that make or sell the products that are inflating.

I think PMs within a portfolio are a good idea but he hasn't persuaded me to sell everything and buy gold and a shotgun any time soon.

I know, Mike sells gold so keep that in mind. He was quite right on helicopter money which was pretty much unknown concept 15 years ago - look where we are now...

[Fully Detached]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

HTB estates should be where we see it first.Lots of younger people up to their naffs in it.Job losses and splitting up should start things rolling.The government might come in with some crazy scheme yet,but lets hope the CBs are turning off the liquidity by then as they likely will be.Its all bad for anyone who over paid the last several years.The only saving grace is the ones who bought with a good deposit and locked in a 10 year fix,they at least will avoid the high rates mid to late decade.

A friend of the wife is a died in the wool "never lose with bricks and mortar" type, who has annoyingly been proven right to date. Couple of years ago they "helped' their daughter buy a one bedroom flat for >£200k with her boyfriend. Relationship has ended, she's now on her own in there. Can't get a lodger unless she's prepared to sleep with them. Mortgage deal is coming to an end, so she's now got to try to find a new deal with half the income available to service the mortgage. And that's before the LTV takes a hit due to falling prices.

Far from helping their daughter I think they've pretty much enslaved her for as long as it takes for her to decide to treat the last two years of mortgage payments as rent, and to hand it back to the bank. It's tragic that many of the victims in this will be the kids of the people who should really have taken the hit and learned the lesson.

[Frank Hovis]

10 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

I know, Mike sells gold so keep that in mind. He was quite right on helicopter money which was pretty much unknown concept 15 years ago - look where we are now...

 

Fair point.  Investing though is about deciding what to buy and for how long you intend to hold it.

There will undoubtedly be a huge financial crisis in the future from which only those holding gold / PMs will emerge with their wealth intact.  And even then only if they can conceal the existence of such from the government who will otherwise take it to prop up the currency.

When though?  Ten years, twenty, fifty, a hundred?  The last two aren't going to worry me.

Mike has been saying it's imminent since the early 2000s whilst, as you say, selling gold on the back of that claim which makes him a vested interest.

For his hyper inflation claim he was having to resort to Germany during WWI which looks like a very stretched parallel.

 

[Popuplights]

7 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

US social safety isn't normally that good. 
But, at this time, they're handing out unemployment checks of close to $1000 / week.  Several of my stateside friends tell me they're getting more for staying home than they ever got from employment.
It's $52,000 a year.  That's slightly more than the average wage.

  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/18/you-have-to-pay-taxes-on-unemployment-what-you-need-to-know.html

Yes, this is correct. My next door neighbor gets 1500 bucks every 2 weeks. Plus the 1200 stimulus cheque. 

[stop_the_craziness]

39 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

A friend of the wife is a died in the wool "never lose with bricks and mortar" type, who has annoyingly been proven right to date. Couple of years ago they "helped' their daughter buy a one bedroom flat for >£200k with her boyfriend. Relationship has ended, she's now on her own in there. Can't get a lodger unless she's prepared to sleep with them. Mortgage deal is coming to an end, so she's now got to try to find a new deal with half the income available to service the mortgage. And that's before the LTV takes a hit due to falling prices.

Far from helping their daughter I think they've pretty much enslaved her for as long as it takes for her to decide to treat the last two years of mortgage payments as rent, and to hand it back to the bank. It's tragic that many of the victims in this will be the kids of the people who should really have taken the hit and learned the lesson.

Just rent it out innit.  Or somethin'

[Long time lurking]

3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Killer Bunny on TOS i

He `s posting on there again ? or are you reading twitter /booms and bust his report 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

13 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

He `s posting on there again ? or are you reading twitter /booms and bust his report 

No, he's back on there.

I had to block him on twitter, he kept partitioning everyone on HPC, lied about when was last on there posting, called them all losers, there will be no crash, rates will rise, then they wont rise, etc etc etc etc.  I got sick of listening to it.

He looks like he's jumping on the bandwagon now, on the very site he was slagging off.  His message is kinda like DBs but less concise.  He'll be over here before long once he realises there's only 3 bear and 200 estate agents posting now